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February 13, 2014

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Final 2013 Smartphone Market Share Numbers - Full year and Quarterly Q4 data by Top 10 brands, plus OS shares, plus installed base:

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AndThisWillBeToo

So Apple is selling only most expensive phone(s) in the market and last year sold HALF the amount of phones compared to #1, which reportedly had biggest sales in low-end.
Must be a pain to lose the market like that.

Satya Nutela

I believe BB10 user only around 3 million.

LeeBase

15.5% for Apple - not bad at all considering the explosive growth in the low end of the market where Apple doesn't compete...or the middle. Clearly Apple's "low growth" in the 4th Qtr was an industry phenomena.

Interestingly, Apple computers (Mac, iPhone, iPad) combined sold more than Windows computers last qtr. To put that 15.5% in perspective.

Android at less than 80%? How could that be? I thought Android was at something like 99% already.

Windows Phone - not bad. Ok, very bad...just a lot better than everyone not Android/iOS. And clearly established as THE third option.

Poor RIM. Will they exist at all as a phone maker this time next year?

cornelius

there is a mistake in the header of the first table:
Rank . Brand . . . . 2013 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share

The last year (to the right) should be 2011?

AndThisWillBeToo

OH MY GOD!
Samsung QoQ unit sales were FLAT!
Tomi report Q3 was 84.1M - same as now in Q4.
Samsung Samster the Sammie was not able to grow unit sales to Christmas quarter - AT ALL! And meanwhile the market grew 13% in one quarter!

How is that even possible? Due to iPhone? Impossible as only iSheeps buy iPhones and they do not buy Galaxy series. The best selling quarter in the year and Samsung can't improve sales. Weird. Totally weird.

AndThisWillBeToo

Nokia closed Symbian production lines at end of June 2013. Could you already accept there are no Symbian phones in Q4 numbers?

LeeBase

Apple fell in market share. But, as Tomi recently educated us...we are to look at more than growth rate.

Apple grew sales by 60M units. That's more than the #3 company Huawei sold.

AndThisWillBeToo

@leebase
Apple increased sales by 18M units 2012->2013, 135.8M -> 153.4M. Pay attention.

Paul

Well to be fair to @leebase, he took the column (mis)labeled 2012 units and subtracted it from 2013 to get 60M.

AndThisWillBeToo

That's why I told him to pay attention. ;)
I assume Tomi fixes some labels and adds Q4 OS shares when he gets back.

LeeBase

Ok...Apple fell 5% in market share while Huawei grew in marketshare for the SAME amount of unit sales in increase. Meanwhile for those extra 18M Apple likely made more money than all the Chineese put together...JUST on those extra sales :)

RottenApple

@Leebase:

Bravo!
You are quite skilled at spinning the numbers in a way that suits your view of things.

Try to do some projections into the future with these numbers - that's where the potential dangers for Apple lie.

LeeBase

Define what "potential danger" you mean. Just what do you think is going to happen in the future that hasn't ALREADY happened? Android flew past iOS's unit share years ago. Android is already over 5 times that of the iPhone. 5 TIMES. When it wasn't Android, it was Symbian and Blackberry that were many multiple times larger in unit share than Apple. Apple sales still growing. Apple's percentage of mobile profits grew to 87%. Samsung's is 32%...meaning the rest of the industry operated at a loss. All while Apple's unit share dropped.

Just how long do you thing companies losing money can stay in the race? Samsung saw FLAT sales between Q3 and Q4! Christmas holiday season and they didn't sell more than the previous qtr. Samsung's profits down. Samsung spent 14 BILLION dollars in advertising last year to get that massive marketshare. Remember when Tomi declared that for Apple to sell 10 million phones in a year they'd have to spend themselves into bankruptcy in advertising?

Speaking of bankruptcy...RIM and HTC could both go under this year. Sony is jettisoning businesses right and left trying to get out of the money losing game. Could their phones be next? Lenovo bought Motorolla which is a continual money loser in the hundreds of millions per year.

And in all that...it's APPLE you think is showing signs of danger because...what? Because of a market reality that has been there for years already with no detriment to the strength and power of the Apple ecosystem.

Speaking of money to invest...Apple just spend DOUBLE the money Nokia sold for...just in two weeks buying back Apple shares. The same amount of money that represented unprecedented and massive advertising by Samsung necessary to buy the marketshare it has....Apple spent in two weeks to take advantage of a dip in Apple's share price.

I'll give you a prediction. Apple will continue to lose market share all year...and the next year...and the next until all phones sold are smartphones....leaving Apple somewhere between 10% and 12% and remaining the most profitable company in history.

Alex Kerr

Many thanks Tomi.

I would love to know total installed base of featurephones, and total featurephone sales for 2013 please.

Much appreciated!

John Fischer

Rank . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2013 . . OS systems supported

1 (1) . . Samsung . . . . 84.1 M . . 29.3% . . . . . . . ( 33.1% ) . . . . . . Android

Wow, Samsung decline documented in this blog, from Q3 to Q4 almost 4 % decline! If it would be apple it would be declared the biggest looser ever.

But apple grew 4,5% ... Umm? Why didn't people kept buying Samsung? Ahh , yes, seasonal... Always that time in the year that people prefers iphones and coincidentally the high end samsung phone didn't hit the sales targets...

What could be the excuse, big bonuses for their salesman.? Like the absurd excuse for the 18 % in yearly net... They most likely hid there part of the decline as they don't really show reliable numbers.. Who knows..

My Question for Tomi would be...

How much of Android market share really matters, kit kat? Ice cream and gingerbread account for almost 40% so, why not measure the relevant one to the other OS? Eliminated irrelevant data... Let's see the numbers.

Sander van der Wal

What on Earth is Tizen doing in the tables? Its market share is so small as not to show up in the list op relevant OS'es, but it is adding to Samsungs, Huawei's and Lenevo's profits? Bada and in particular Symbian have a right to be listed as formerly relevant OS's, but Tizen is vapourware.

Winter

Nice numbers. Let's compare the 4Q numbers (M):
4Q Android iPhone WP All
13 220.2 51.0 8.6 287.3
12 147.3 47.8 5.8 217.2
11 76.0 37.0 2.0 155.0
10 30.1 16.2 1.7 99.4

The year over year growth of Android 12-13 is 73M (49%), that of iPhone 3.2M (7%), that of WP 2.8M (48%). WP can barely "keep up with" the growth of the market (in percentages). However, the whole growth achieved by WP from 4Q12 to 4Q13 is a single day of Android sales.

But the growth in units of iPhone over that time is barely bigger than that of WP.

This really looks like Apple is hitting market saturation.

Baron95

@Winter I actually agree with you. Apple is reaching saturation IN THE OPERATORS it is being distributed today and in the 3.5-4.0" DISPLAY SIZE it competes in today.

The question is, what happens in Q4/2014 when Apple will be in China Mobile, several Russian operators a couple of Indian ones, AND it will be shipping 4.8"-class devices?

My guess it that it takes more share from Samsung.

notzed

Tomi, why not use the "pre" tag for the tables? Thats why it exists. They're pretty hard to read even with trying to align everything up with those dots.

LeeBase

@Baron95 - you keep making the excellent point that Apple's isn't available on all carriers. However, I think that the remaining carriers will have diminishing returns compared to the ones already signed up. China mobile, and perhaps a larger iPhone 6 option...are tools to help Apple tread water or only lose slightly in "market share". I think it's fairly clear that the next couple billions "non-smart phone users" to come aboard are not going to be Apple's market.

I don't think Samsung nor anybody else is going to do better than Apple in the premium market. But the "market share" story is nothing but down hill for Apple from now until all mobile phones sold are "smart" phones.

LeeBase

Time to think on this a bit more. There is no excuse for Samsung's performance at all related to "4th Qtr is best for Apple". 4th Qtr is Christmas time for all the world except China. It's the biggest quarter for everybody. Samsung NOT going up from the previous qtr means Samsung had a bad qtr. Samsung had a new phone...the Note 3. Samsung has distribution everywhere. Samsung participates at all price points. Samsung clearly got clobbered on the high end by Apple and on the low end by the Chinese. As predicted by some of us regular "Msft Astroturfers". Funny how often Msft pays us to accurately predict how good Apple and Samsung will do.

But as I also say -- Sammy and Apple will have their up and down qtrs but they are still far and away the two companies dominating mobile. A bad qtr for Samsung does not mean it's nothing but down hill from now until Samsung goes out of business. We have NO indication that the Chinese can take their show on the road outside of China. It will take them time. It will not be a slam dunk.

There is also no indication that there are great profits to be had in India and China. Great unit sales of very cheap phones sold with very little margin. Right now only Samsung and Apple are making any profit to speak of. And they are making that profit from the same place...they premium smartphone market.

To the extent that the Chinese are successful it will be only to ensure that NOBODY (but Apple) is making much money making smartphones. Once they lower the price to take sales from Samsung...they will not then be able to raise the prices. The profit will forever be removed.

Want to know what that looks like? Check out the PC market. The average profit to make and sell a PC is $23. Apple makes on average about $260 per Mac.

Want to know what the mobile devices are improving so rapidly? Because there is great money to be made...for the time being. Once they smartphone truly becomes a commodity, the innovation comes to a grinding halt.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"The average profit to make and sell a PC is $23. Apple makes on average about $260 per Mac."

Of course this is comparing apples to oranges because the Mac profit contains the part made by the OS - for regular Windows PCs this piece of the cake goes to Microsoft.

I'd like to see the profit margins of companies that actually build PCs according to their customers' demands. All this ultra-cheap machines are ultimately just crap - barely usable to surf the internet, but that's it. That part of the market will go away soon anyway because that's what gets replaced by tablets and chromebooks.

Maybe once that happens the profitability returns - if the market adjusts to customers who need quality hardware that actually can do some stuff.

LeeBase

There are plenty of expensive windows PC's to choose from. They just don't SELL in high numbers. Not in comparison to the really cheap PC's HP, Sony, Samsung, Toshiba, Lenovo all have choices that are as or more expensive than Apple's. Then there are the small specialty system builders and modders. You just can't overcome the overwhelming amount of cheap computers crammed with all kinds of adware and bloatware.

Having a line of premium computers and selling plenty of them are not the same thing.

foo

Tomi,

What do you think about this news?

The latest Brandirectory survey on global brands is out and it’s got some grim news for Microsoft: The value of the handset brand it bought has continued plunging. Back in 2008, Nokia was one of the top 10 brands in the world. In 2014, Nokia no longer even makes the top 500 list of leading brands.

http://bgr.com/2014/02/19/nokia-2014-brand-value/

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"Having a line of premium computers and selling plenty of them are not the same thing."

Correct. But as I said, I'm fairly sure that the largest part of this segment gets served by specialty builders, i.e. since these outfits operate in smaller quantities, their product never shows up on any chart. Of course this will give the faulty impression that aside from Apple nobody is making money here.

But this is the market segment that actually competes with Apple.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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