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February 13, 2014

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Final 2013 Smartphone Market Share Numbers - Full year and Quarterly Q4 data by Top 10 brands, plus OS shares, plus installed base:

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AndThisWillBeToo

So Apple is selling only most expensive phone(s) in the market and last year sold HALF the amount of phones compared to #1, which reportedly had biggest sales in low-end.
Must be a pain to lose the market like that.

Satya Nutela

I believe BB10 user only around 3 million.

cornelius

there is a mistake in the header of the first table:
Rank . Brand . . . . 2013 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share . . 2012 units . . Share

The last year (to the right) should be 2011?

AndThisWillBeToo

OH MY GOD!
Samsung QoQ unit sales were FLAT!
Tomi report Q3 was 84.1M - same as now in Q4.
Samsung Samster the Sammie was not able to grow unit sales to Christmas quarter - AT ALL! And meanwhile the market grew 13% in one quarter!

How is that even possible? Due to iPhone? Impossible as only iSheeps buy iPhones and they do not buy Galaxy series. The best selling quarter in the year and Samsung can't improve sales. Weird. Totally weird.

AndThisWillBeToo

Nokia closed Symbian production lines at end of June 2013. Could you already accept there are no Symbian phones in Q4 numbers?

AndThisWillBeToo

@leebase
Apple increased sales by 18M units 2012->2013, 135.8M -> 153.4M. Pay attention.

Paul

Well to be fair to @leebase, he took the column (mis)labeled 2012 units and subtracted it from 2013 to get 60M.

AndThisWillBeToo

That's why I told him to pay attention. ;)
I assume Tomi fixes some labels and adds Q4 OS shares when he gets back.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

Bravo!
You are quite skilled at spinning the numbers in a way that suits your view of things.

Try to do some projections into the future with these numbers - that's where the potential dangers for Apple lie.

Alex Kerr

Many thanks Tomi.

I would love to know total installed base of featurephones, and total featurephone sales for 2013 please.

Much appreciated!

John Fischer

Rank . . Manufacturer . Units . . . Market Share . Was Q3 2013 . . OS systems supported

1 (1) . . Samsung . . . . 84.1 M . . 29.3% . . . . . . . ( 33.1% ) . . . . . . Android

Wow, Samsung decline documented in this blog, from Q3 to Q4 almost 4 % decline! If it would be apple it would be declared the biggest looser ever.

But apple grew 4,5% ... Umm? Why didn't people kept buying Samsung? Ahh , yes, seasonal... Always that time in the year that people prefers iphones and coincidentally the high end samsung phone didn't hit the sales targets...

What could be the excuse, big bonuses for their salesman.? Like the absurd excuse for the 18 % in yearly net... They most likely hid there part of the decline as they don't really show reliable numbers.. Who knows..

My Question for Tomi would be...

How much of Android market share really matters, kit kat? Ice cream and gingerbread account for almost 40% so, why not measure the relevant one to the other OS? Eliminated irrelevant data... Let's see the numbers.

Sander van der Wal

What on Earth is Tizen doing in the tables? Its market share is so small as not to show up in the list op relevant OS'es, but it is adding to Samsungs, Huawei's and Lenevo's profits? Bada and in particular Symbian have a right to be listed as formerly relevant OS's, but Tizen is vapourware.

Winter

Nice numbers. Let's compare the 4Q numbers (M):
4Q Android iPhone WP All
13 220.2 51.0 8.6 287.3
12 147.3 47.8 5.8 217.2
11 76.0 37.0 2.0 155.0
10 30.1 16.2 1.7 99.4

The year over year growth of Android 12-13 is 73M (49%), that of iPhone 3.2M (7%), that of WP 2.8M (48%). WP can barely "keep up with" the growth of the market (in percentages). However, the whole growth achieved by WP from 4Q12 to 4Q13 is a single day of Android sales.

But the growth in units of iPhone over that time is barely bigger than that of WP.

This really looks like Apple is hitting market saturation.

Baron95

@Winter I actually agree with you. Apple is reaching saturation IN THE OPERATORS it is being distributed today and in the 3.5-4.0" DISPLAY SIZE it competes in today.

The question is, what happens in Q4/2014 when Apple will be in China Mobile, several Russian operators a couple of Indian ones, AND it will be shipping 4.8"-class devices?

My guess it that it takes more share from Samsung.

notzed

Tomi, why not use the "pre" tag for the tables? Thats why it exists. They're pretty hard to read even with trying to align everything up with those dots.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"The average profit to make and sell a PC is $23. Apple makes on average about $260 per Mac."

Of course this is comparing apples to oranges because the Mac profit contains the part made by the OS - for regular Windows PCs this piece of the cake goes to Microsoft.

I'd like to see the profit margins of companies that actually build PCs according to their customers' demands. All this ultra-cheap machines are ultimately just crap - barely usable to surf the internet, but that's it. That part of the market will go away soon anyway because that's what gets replaced by tablets and chromebooks.

Maybe once that happens the profitability returns - if the market adjusts to customers who need quality hardware that actually can do some stuff.

foo

Tomi,

What do you think about this news?

The latest Brandirectory survey on global brands is out and it’s got some grim news for Microsoft: The value of the handset brand it bought has continued plunging. Back in 2008, Nokia was one of the top 10 brands in the world. In 2014, Nokia no longer even makes the top 500 list of leading brands.

http://bgr.com/2014/02/19/nokia-2014-brand-value/

RottenApple

@Leebase:

"Having a line of premium computers and selling plenty of them are not the same thing."

Correct. But as I said, I'm fairly sure that the largest part of this segment gets served by specialty builders, i.e. since these outfits operate in smaller quantities, their product never shows up on any chart. Of course this will give the faulty impression that aside from Apple nobody is making money here.

But this is the market segment that actually competes with Apple.

Mark W

Thanks for the numbers Tomi.

Very interesting reading regarding Tomi's forecasting accuracy in:

http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/final-verdict-on-tomi-ahonen-forecast-accuracy-year-2013/

Despite huge spreads in his forecasts quite a few are misses. Not to dismiss Tomi's skills, just that calling himself the most accurate forecaster and then missing most of them...

RottenApple

Ugh...

Forget that site. The guy behind it is clealy an anti-Tomi crusader. And it completely misses the mark of 'correctness'. It's a forecast, not clairvoyance.

Of course, seen like that, quite a bit of predictions are misses. That's inevitable if you consider things black and white. You got to see stuff in context, i.e. how large is the margin of error compared to other forecasters.

As an example, Tomi was off by ca. 100% when forecasting the performance of Nokia after burning the platforms. In reality Nokia fared far worse than predicted. Sounds like a bad forecast, eh? By itself certainly - you must have a look at competing forecasts, though, and most of those were off by more than twice as much, if not a lot more.

AndThisWillBeToo

I thought that was about year 2013? Didn't Strategy Analytics already say 4% for Windows Phone at the time Tomi insisted it can never exceed 2%?

John Alatalo

It will be interesting if we see a Motorola/Lenovo Windows Phone soon:

"Microsoft has announced that it is now working with nine new Windows Phone 8 hardware partners as it seeks to "scale the platform" to higher volumes. The new partners include industry heavyweights LG, ZTE, Lenovo, and Foxconn, plus a number of smaller OEMs in the form of Gionee, JSR, Karbonn, Lava (Xolo), and Longcheer."

CRConrad

Better yet, Tomi, why not use the "Table" tag for tables? That's why that exists.

zayıflama

Good stuff for Smartphone Market. Thank you.

ExNokian

@Tomi
"Samsung was making strong profits in its handset unit but the profits were down considerably from Q3 - out of a one-time cost of handing celebration bonuses for its employees. So please don't think Samsung's handset business is suddenly struggling."

You may have noticed people here slightly disagreed with you on that one. Well, now Samsung has informed us that they'll have a second quarter with declining profits:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/samsung-earnings-beat-estimates-on-cheaper-galaxy-phones.html
So I assume they handed another one-time celebration bonus round to employees? :D

(Also: you never addressed the fact that Samsung unit sales were flat from Q3 to Q4 - something you have repeatedly said to be disastrous if it happened to Nokia because Q4 is the XMas season where sales automatically go up except for those who are learly losing the game.)

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