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« There Are Some Early AR Numbers - All Looking VERY Good for Augmented Reality | Main | Apple Results Q4 - Wow this was far worse than I thought... »

January 23, 2014

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Nhick

Oh, welcome back HP..

vladkr

Pity for Tizen. Jolla is making all mistakes they can do, Ubuntu already failed, Firefox...hmm, any news ? So Tizen is the last platform that could be an alternative.

e_lm_70

Congratulation again on the prediction of Nokia / Lumia sales ;-)

With time also Apple will start to suffer the Android pain.
The parallel with the PC market in early '90 it is embarrassing.
There was an early leader Symbian, in the process to divert Symbian customer to MicroSoft, they just killed Nokia & Meego, and let Android accelerate their growing.
Now the market is growing, but it is hard for any new (Mobile OS) player to have any hope.

The Windows Phone future with direct and sole involvement of MicroSoft it is hopeless.
It will be nice to see some prediction about how badly and quickly MicroSoft is going to collapse in the mobile world next year.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

willz

@vladkr

"Jolla is making all mistakes they can do [...]"
What do you mean? They had a decent start and as far I follow them on Twitter they do great community work. Also they are delivering updates fast like in the "NFC bug with the other half" (NFC was always on and therefore sucked on the battery).

Firefox on the other side was the only OS that had three OEMs (Geeksphone, ZTE and Alcatel) that came out with real products and also seemed to have a good support by operators. They have a clear roadmap with major releases every 12 weeks. I use my Geeksphone Peak on a daily basis with Firefox OS 1.3 and think that it does the job really well. Sure it is not on par with Android in a lot of details and I would say that at certain points it is where Android was in version 2.2. However, Mozilla is bringing it forward really heavily and I see the potential. I know some of you guys keep saying "HTML5 won´t bring it never ever". But fun fact: out of the challengers we looked at one year ago (Tizen, Jolla, Ubuntu, Firefox OS) it is the only one that was shipped on real devices to real customers by more than one OEM. Also developing for it is rather easy. So to sum it up: I´d rather bet on Firefox OS than on Windows Phone ;)

jj

The only reason Windows Phone was selling at all was Nokia brand. So, after Nokia sold phones to Microsoft, last Nokia fans were lost also .

vladkr

@willz :
Nice to read that Firefox is shipping... couldn't find this information, nor any test or review.

About Jolla, they have real problems in communication,
they're shipping unfinished product...
no other half, because they don't provide information to make/manufacture them, then no different colours available, as promised in May,
customer care is disastrous,
and they don't ship outside EU, despite promises made to 40Euros preorders customers, for "legal reasons" (that's not to mention they don't respect EU laws, what doesn't prevent them from shipping in the EU)

They have no clear business plan. They have very good programmers, but they didn't think about hiring project managers or lawyers. Until now, they offered jobs only to super geeks like them... today they posted job offers for customer cares, which is a good start, but still, they don't care about the organization of the company.

And to finish about Jolla, their aim is to collaborate with the "community". Problem is that major players of this community can't get a jolla because they're not in Europe. Even Nokia, when it was planning the N9 to be killed, gave N950 to chosen programmers, what was a real good idea.

If you follow them on Twitter, you can see that 80% of their replies are "stay tuned", and that's not a good sign. Jolla looks like a student project, where spirit and the idea is more important than the result.

John Fro

This is not like the PC market in the 90's, this is like the PC market in the mid-80's, but unless you are 40+ y.o. you would not remember that. By the mid-90's all anyone was talking about was software. Hardware was commoditized Intel chipsets and competition was only for video cards and a few peripherals.

WonTheLottery

Mozilla did the right thing releasing Firefox OS in countries that didn't have a well established smartphone market so they could knock the rough edges off it before competing in more mature markets.

Telefonica have stated in countries where they've officially released Firefox OS phones they account for between 9 and 12% of their sales.

Earendil Star

The bad news from Nokia is really interesting.

Nokia is performing badly not only on their smartphone business (what is going to MS), but also on what is staying.

I think we are starting to see the first signs of customers being disappointed by what they bought. They were promised miracles, they got (as usual with MS) a half baked beta product with a tiny app ecosystem.

Plus, former Nokia fans, after the smartphone division was sold to MS, have no longer any reason to support Lumias. They were buying Nokias, not WPs. So sales are tanking again. During a period (Christmas) when they should experience stellar growth... ooops.

Curious to the what the usual astros will have to say... will it be just the usual denial? I bet it.

Baron-9-5

This is comical. To gloss over the fact that, the minute DoCoMo got its hands on the iPhone with the CEO Kato san himself holding one up in triumph on launch day, they dropped Tizen.

Who wants a distraction when 75% of phones sold by DoCoMo after iPhone launch are iPhones.

Which just goes on to prove that it is the iPhone that killed Tizen. Not Android.

DoCoMo and China Mobile were the one-two punch of the holiday selling season (Chinas is just underway for Chinese New Year this month). Next year, the large screen iPhones should finish off all Android at the high end, save Galaxy.

Then on to the other 200 operators like India's top 2 that still don't have official iPhone support in their stores.

Apple will continue to squeeze all the profit from the market. How? By delivering high end subscribers back to operators. Just like they did at Verizon and DoComo, and are about to do at China Mobile.

Nokia is a side note. Sad excuse for a company. Lazy, bloated, sclerotic, bubbled up by the GSM cartel, only to die the second the Silicon Valley boys showed up to the party.

Earendil Star

Wow the reality distortion field. Somebody is hallucinating. Again.

Fact: Nokia, the lazy, bloated, sclerotic company actually thrived and was n.1 worldwide until the Silicon Valley boys showed up, and ignorantly screwed up everything.

But one thing is true: Nokia has become a side note. It's MS the actor now, and it's tanking. Yeah, the Silicon Valley guys. Precisely.

Baron-9-5

Nokia thrived EXACTLY during the GSM and early UMTS bubble.

Similarly, Blackberry thrived EXACTLY during the North-America email-centric bubble, got a life extension in the poor countries with SMS bypass with BBM.

Both cratered EXACTLY like I said they would (way back in 2010), the second that Apple and Android started penetrating the 3rd world markets they were hiding at.

Don't confuse GMS-ETSI-carttel induced bubble with corporate excellence.

Nokia is, and was, a bloated, ridiculously uncompetitive entity. A house of cards. Which came down the second there was a little bit of West Coast wind.

KPOM

Samsung had a BIG miss in earnings today. If Apple misses in its announcement on Monday, it is the industry. If they meet or beat, then it is a sign that they have the right strategy and that Samsung's market share at all cost strategy has its limits.

Winter

Peak Windows Phone?

John Fischer

Funny comparisons with the pc industry. It took over 30 years to have just over a billion PCs outhere, microsoft was king with that echosystem but apple will die having just 600 million fanatical sheeps aproaching a billion soon.

Tizen dead means huge problems for samsung as they only offer cheap hardware getting cheaper

It seems to me that apple is the new microsoft during the 90s. Controlling their software and sales around it ... Free means cheap users and cheap users don't bring much to the table, google knows this and has failed with over 60 projects ( see google graveyard) trying to find their next big thing.... For now, one company one product

Interesting, Tomi when do we get one of your phenomenals insights ONLY dedicated to the handset market over 500 US .

R

It's interesting to watch the emerging smartphone platforms. I prefer to remain optimistic that at least one of them will catch on.

Jolla is shipping, but it's far from finished. It's realizing the apprehension I felt about how Nokia donated a lot to the community, but kept crucial parts of the UI and OS proprietary. Jolla had to redevelop those from scratch.

Firefox OS is also shipping. As a non-profit funded mostly by Google, they can financially afford a lot of development time.

Ubuntu Phone isn't shipping yet, but Canonical is doubling down on their investment. They realize that mobile is crucial to the future, so it looks like they will burn all of Shuttleworth's personal fortune if they have to.

indian

@Baron-9-5 "Then on to the other 200 operators like India's top 2 that still don't have official iPhone support in their stores." Official or not we do not buy phones from carriers. Carrier have zero impact on mobile market hence iPhone is at less then 5%. Subsidy would not work here. Its capitalism you get what you can pay for!

WonTheLottery

Tizen is far from dead, as well as Samsung, ZTE and Huawei smartphones it will also be in Toyotas, Jaguars, Land Rovers, smart TVs, cameras, white goods etc...

Samsung withdrew from consumer sales in Japan in 2007 and their sales of smartphones in Japan is very small compared to almost anywhere else on the planet. Everything the world used to buy from Japan they now buy from South Korea instead, that and the history between the two countries means South Korean products are a hard sell in Japan.

It was very unlikely DoCoMo would ever have been a big customer for Samsung's Tizen devices, even if we took their commitment to it at face value. The significance of this announcement is being massively overstated.

@Baron95
If ever there was a house of cards it's Apple, a < £100 Android blows their featurephone out of the water. They are the living proof you can fool some of the people all of the time.

DWZ

HP had an opportuinity to establish a strong mobile footprint with WebOS, but now all they can do ist to make some "me-too"-Android devices. Sorry, no bright future for HP. Nokia Lumia fare well - no sales at all here in Germany during December period.

winter

@LeeBase
"Then Apple's numbers will come out and they are going to be block buster big."

Indeed, they will. But Android figures will be block buster big too. Every year, we see record breaking Apple numbers during the holidays. And every year we see that Apple's average market share over the last year has shrunk compared to the year before.

Given what I saw in the shops, there might be big surprises in Android tablet sales.

E.Casais

It is too early to tell what is really going on in the market -- we have only two points now (admittedly from important players, Samsung and Nokia).

Not before we have seen how Apple, HTC, Sony, LG have fared, how well or poorly the battalions of Chinese firms have performed, and looked at the shifts between low/mid/high price devices, feature/smartphones/phablets/tablets, and things like total number of devices sold and ASP, can we really endeavor a conclusive analysis.

What is sure is that Jolla and Firefox had an infinitesimal impact on the mobile market in 2013.

"If ever there was a house of cards it's Apple, a < £100 Android blows their featurephone out of the water. "

What does this mean? There must be a typo?

@indian

It is very difficult to make somebody apprehend how differently a market operates if he has never experienced it personally. In a sense it is quite a normal situation.

WonTheLottery

@E.Casais
It's not a typo, even a very cheap Android offers more functionality than an iPhone.

@LeeBase
The better Samsung's budget devices get the harder it is for them to sell their higher price brethren, it's a conundrum for them. In 2014 Samsung will come under more pressure, not from Apple but from Huawei. Huawei's devices are extremely good and very keenly priced.

Apple are a distraction - antennaegate, hopelessly inaccurate maps that navigate people across active runways, the white screen of death,... their fanbois will tolerate any failure and still pay massively over the odds for more. It's unfathomable to any rational person and probably impossible to replicate. Samsung need to focus on the real competition and not obsess over Apple lest they be tempted to do something absurdly stupid like Nokia did.

AndThisWillBeToo

"Samsung need to focus on the real competition and not obsess over Apple"

Indeed. Leave 60% of industry profits for Apple and go fight the others on how you split the remaining 40%.

RottenApple

@Leebase:

" Rather than insulting Apple's customers, you might want to reflect on what Apple must be doing right to maintain such loyalty."

Judging from most of the Apple users I know it's fully sufficient to make them believe that any Apple product is superior to any competition by default - and they won't even be persuaded by facts. Discussion not possible.

I call that iSheep.

On the other hand, from more levelheaded Apple users I hear increasing criticism that they got more Microsoftian ever since Steve Jobs died.

I personally can't see the appeal in Apple products. There's just nothing inherently better in them compared to various Android UIs I have seen. In fact, I think most Apple users have never tried any competing products (because, hey, they can't be as good as Apple, right?) and/or have been so throroughly locked (or to be more precise: have been made to believe they got locked) into the 'ecosystem' prison that it's hard to get out again.

Baron--9-5

So Nokia sales decline 8% sequentially from Q3 to Q4 and Tomi calls that an disaster.

Samsung today announced that their mobile devices sales declined 9% - NINE% - sequentially from Q3 to Q4.

So, again, Nokia outperforms Samsung!!!! Lumia/Windows probably gained share from Samsung/Android!!!

What was the only bright spot in Samsung's announcement today? They sales of components increase due to immense demand from Apple.

So, Tomi, are we calling peak Samsung? Read the other threads - that is what I have been saying. Samsung face huge challenges.

Lets wait for Apple's results. I think 55M iPhones is what we will see. But that is unimportant. In Q1 iPhone is being distributed in 2,200 China Mobile stores and hundreds of Reliance stores in India. Will be fun to watch.

But, on average, Nokia dropping only 8% is excellent results. Of course not matching Apple, but besting Samsung. That Elop guy knows a thing or two, he?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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