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« Nokia Under Elop - His 3 Years: Performance Review - Worst CEO of All Time - All the Facts - In Pictures | Main | Its Now Official, Nokia Shareholders Approved the Deal »

November 15, 2013



The Total number in the second table "BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2013" is wrong. It is the total of 2Q2013 (232.7). It should be 254.3


"Well, if Nokia could die the Microsoft death, why not Microsoft itself?"

I think our fearful leader Elop is perfectly capable of such a feat.


Inconsistency: "Was Q1 2013" should probably be "Was Q2 2013" according to numbers.
And HTC was (10) not (11) in Q2, right?

Tomi T Ahonen

Thanks winter and daz, will correct those.. :-)

Tomi :-)


Something is wrong here, Huawei produces Windows phone as well, please correct it.


In the very first table, bada shoul between square brackets [bada], because Samsung phased out this OS early this year.

In my opinion, the table of market share by manufacturer is the most remarkable of all (8 out of 10 come from Asia, and this share has been continuously growing over the past years), and the one about OS installed base the most relevant, since it takes into account the hysteresis of market shifts.


Agree on [bada]


Wow! I thought WP was not allowed to pass BB like... ever.



"Nokia, instead of dropping out of the top 10, as was predicted by the blog's owner, is now only 1.2M units/quarter away from being in the top 5. Can it do it? I'm not sure. Those Chinese OEMs are pumping a ton of low cost Androids. But it is an interesting race to watch. Nokia vs no-name Chinese Androids. Place your bets."

That's just an impressive achievement to interpret these dismal numbers in a positive manner.

As for 'will they enter Top 5', that can clearly be answered with 'no' since they won't exist any longer. In any case, I don't see it - just because Microsoft won't manage to build upon Nokia's brand recognition.

Europeans hate Microsoft products. They bought Nokia because of its past reputation. MS doesn't have that, so once they need to rebrand - game over!


Nokia closed its last Symbian product line in June. How did they ship Symbian phones in this quarter?

And yes, [Bada]. Samsung Osborned it late 2012 when they told it will be replaced by Tizen with no way to upgrade (and no Tizen phones available for another year.)

Only reason we see those two here is the author of this blog. Every brand that has even remotely mentioned in same context as Tizen is now a Tizen partner whereas likes of Huawei, HTC and ZTE need not to be mentioned after Windows Phone.
It same as Tomi insisting that Telefonica is in the Tizen board even though they left a long time ago and recently told how pleased they are to offer carrier billing for their Windows Phone customers in cooperation with Microsoft.

But we don't get to read news like that in this blog.


Tomi, When will you give us more accurate comparison between apple and samsung ? Can you compare Iphone 5s to Galaxy s4 in markets where they are properly used. (on line shopping etc)

Also it would be good to measure io7 vs kit kat as they both are just released.

Comparing Ford Fiesta with Audi 7, umm not a good yard stick. Take Japan, Germany, USA, UK etc to measure 5s and s4


Bada fizzled and Tizen is going nowhere, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Samsung fork Android, particularly since Google looks to be reasserting control over proper Android through Motorola and the Nexus lines. It would also be interesting to see the breakout by version of Android. Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone. It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X, and probably isn't being used in the same manner.


Given the complete dominance of Android it would be interesting to see which ecosystem these devices are part of. I guess Google is the dominat player, but surly other players exist like Amazon and I guess Chinese users don't use Google?
I think Ecosystems are more interesting than the underlying OS.
Is this possible to dig up?


So, "the most accurate forecaster" manages to tell us that ZTE makes Windows Phones. And that Huawei doesn't. And that Samsung makes Bada-phones. Wow.

On the other hand, the same forecaster did tell us in the beginning of the year that Blackberry would be the third most sold OS with about 4-6% market share this year and that Tizen would have 2% market share in sold devices in Q4/13.


"Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone."

Meaningless without a clear-cut, rigorous definition of what is a feature phone, a smartphone, a superphone, a dumbphone, etc.

"It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X,"

High-end vs. low-end within a device type (i.e. smartphone) is not identical with different device types (i.e. smart vs. feature).

"and probably isn't being used in the same manner."

We already went through this discussion in this blog. We do not know. We just do not know. We do not have the necessary statistics.

"it would be nice to start seeing total mobile market numbers."


Actually, it never made sense to me to differentiate between "feature" and "smart" phones -- the definition of a smartphone is so amorphous that it is more relevant to distinguish between low-end, mid-range and high-end devices -- whatever their input type, application run-time or OS.


Apple is losing market share.

They should totally hire Steve Ballmer to right the ship. Heck, if Microsoft could get 1 out of 10 Symbian users to switch to Windows Phone they could probably get 1 out of 30 Apple users to switch. However, getting anyone to use Windows Phone is such a feat that the board would have to promise him untold millions for that accomplishment.



"Really? Last time I checked, Windows was the #1 Desktop OS in Europe. "

Last time I checked Microsoft has a quasi-monopoly on desktop OSs.
There's a vast difference between buying something because it's good and buying something because there's no viable alternative.

@KPOM: Hey, don't insult my trusty old HTC desire by declaring it a feature phone.


@E-cassais and @rottenapple, I don't mean to imply that a phone purchased in 2010 or 2011 running Android 2.3 is a "featurephone." However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011.

We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful. Even though Apple is now down to about 30% of the tablet market, they still dominate the web usage statistics. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outsized "mobile usage share" for the iPhone.

Last quarter, Samsung finally revealed that it sold about 100 million Galaxy S and Note phones over the past year. Over the same period, Apple sold about 150 million iPhones. Since Apple and Samsung are the only companies making appreciable money on mobile hardware right now, that lines up pretty nicely with their respective profit shares.

@Baron, can Samsung do a "de facto" fork by adding more and more of their own APIs? Does 64-bit give them an opportunity to do more of that? If Google needs to keep writing Android to the lowest common denominator, would Samsung be able to write their own APIs to take advantage of their upcoming processor designs?

I'm sure Samsung isn't too happy with Google right now. They are potentially undermining the Galaxy S/Note business model by selling phones and tablets such as the Nexus 5 and 7 at much lower prices than Samsung. Google couldn't care less whether any OEM makes any money (much the same way Microsoft was with Windows in the 1990s and 2000s). Plus, if Google isn't ready with a 64-bit version of Android in time for the Galaxy S5 launch it puts them in a bad position.


If the stats are to be relied on (and I'm not hallucinating) only 0.1% market share is held by non-Nokia Windows Phones. So while other companies may make them, it looks like only Nokia is selling them.

Unlike the tablet debacle it does make sense (to MS) for Microsoft to just buy Nokia because their "partners" aren't contributing to the platform and neither will they be hurt very much to drop from 0.1% to 0.0% market share.

On the "what people feel about Microsoft" topic I think the feeling is similar to what people feel about government. They resent paying tax and view politicians as a bunch of self-important thieves, but that doesn't stop them using the roads and the health service etc. and no-one has come up with a better idea yet.



"However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011."

Methodologically, this is very dubious. Devices must be classified according to their capabilities, not how/whether those capabilities are used. This latter aspect serves to classify end-users, not devices.

To recap: you can have people using "smartphones" as "feature phones", but this is a classification of people, not of devices themselves (whatever "smart" and "feature" mean), and it has nothing to do whether the OS is recent or not. After all, somebody may be using a brand new Android 4.4 gadget just for calls and SMS -- you see the methodological quagmire you end up with.

"We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful."

It is interesting, but if there are two device classes whose usage patterns differ a lot, it is phones and tablets (practically no voice calls, vast majority of tablets used as WLAN-only devices without SIM, lots of long sessions of media consumption vs. lots of communication, etc).

We really need detailed statistics on the topic. Let us hope that Tomi can come up with some insights.

Alex Kerr

What's the current story with feature phones?

It's only just mid this year (I think) that smartphones sales have overtaken featurephone sales. There are currently less than 2 billion smartphones in use in the world, but 4 billion featurephones (effectively baby/low-end smartphones) and 1 billion dumbphones (can only make calls and texts).

Ericsson in their latest Mobility report project around 4 billion featurephones still in use in 2019. So they're not disappearing anytime soon...

I'd be interested in what current usage numbers are, especially in the developing world.


"until some day Microsoft decides its too expensive to fight for a tiny slice when they see Windows Phone can never become something like say Xbox, and will pull the plug."

I could be wrong, but I think Microsoft is going to stick with Windows Phone for a very long time, no matter how poorly it sells. That is because MS is a personal computing company, and it understands personal computing is going mobile, and so it simply has to keep trying to get into the game.

The only reason I could see for a change in the near future is if MS's new president has some radically new direction for the company, though it is very hard to see what that could be.


IE is not the most used browser in Europe. Chrome is. Windows is of course the most used OS, but many people hate it. xbox seems to be doing OK. There Microsoft was able to buy themselves into the market by spending an incredible amount of money.


We can put a price on how much Windows is loved: MS have to sell WP handsets at a $100 discount. Windows phones are sold at a loss. Nokia's deficites grew faster the more WP handsets they sold.

Also, one of the cross-polinations from WP is Windows 8. The OS that single handedly crashed the sales of new computers.

New Reader

Hi Tomi.

I was wondering if you're gonna do the BlackBerry article just like the one you did to nokia. I love it.

Hi Baron.

You seems like a stupid iSheep that sang a broken record.

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