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November 15, 2013

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Comments

winter

Tomi,
The Total number in the second table "BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2013" is wrong. It is the total of 2Q2013 (232.7). It should be 254.3

winter

"Well, if Nokia could die the Microsoft death, why not Microsoft itself?"

I think our fearful leader Elop is perfectly capable of such a feat.

daz

Inconsistency: "Was Q1 2013" should probably be "Was Q2 2013" according to numbers.
And HTC was (10) not (11) in Q2, right?

Tomi T Ahonen

Thanks winter and daz, will correct those.. :-)

Tomi :-)

Kevin

Something is wrong here, Huawei produces Windows phone as well, please correct it.

E.Casais

In the very first table, bada shoul between square brackets [bada], because Samsung phased out this OS early this year.

In my opinion, the table of market share by manufacturer is the most remarkable of all (8 out of 10 come from Asia, and this share has been continuously growing over the past years), and the one about OS installed base the most relevant, since it takes into account the hysteresis of market shifts.

daz

Agree on [bada]

Baron95

Good data. Need to add HTC and ZTE as Windows Phone manufacturers in the top 10 in your chart and need to show (Bada) as ending.

Samsung has been impressive indeed. Just amazing how many device types and volumes they are shipping. And yet its share price continues to trend down.

Apple is sticking to its guns and focusing on the high end experience exclusively, looking at the used market to increase the ecosystem base for price-sensitive customers. Still it is slightly underperforming in volumes.

Nokia, instead of dropping out of the top 10, as was predicted by the blog's owner, is now only 1.2M units/quarter away from being in the top 5. Can it do it? I'm not sure. Those Chinese OEMs are pumping a ton of low cost Androids. But it is an interesting race to watch. Nokia vs no-name Chinese Androids. Place your bets.

Key events/quarters to watch:
Q1/2014 - First quarter where Apple will have China Mobile volumes
Q2/2014 - First Nokia quarter under Microsoft (likely)
Q3/Q4/2014 - First quarter with large screen (4.5") iPhones

Jolla/Firefox/Tizen will continue to be non events in 2014. They live in the wishful thinking of this blog only. RIM likely exits as a device manufacturer/OS by the end of 2014.

And we will have order in the handset world. Looks like the platforms will settle roughly as:
Google - 60% (with Samsung being the gorilla there)
Non-Google Android - 20% (Chinese OEMs for China mostly)
Apple - 15%
Microsoft/Lumia - 5%

NokiaLove

Wow! I thought WP was not allowed to pass BB like... ever.
http://dominiescommunicate.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/the-bet-between-wp-and-bb-seems-like-done/

RottenApple

@Baron95:

"Nokia, instead of dropping out of the top 10, as was predicted by the blog's owner, is now only 1.2M units/quarter away from being in the top 5. Can it do it? I'm not sure. Those Chinese OEMs are pumping a ton of low cost Androids. But it is an interesting race to watch. Nokia vs no-name Chinese Androids. Place your bets."

That's just an impressive achievement to interpret these dismal numbers in a positive manner.

As for 'will they enter Top 5', that can clearly be answered with 'no' since they won't exist any longer. In any case, I don't see it - just because Microsoft won't manage to build upon Nokia's brand recognition.

Europeans hate Microsoft products. They bought Nokia because of its past reputation. MS doesn't have that, so once they need to rebrand - game over!

AndThisWillBeToo

Nokia closed its last Symbian product line in June. How did they ship Symbian phones in this quarter?

And yes, [Bada]. Samsung Osborned it late 2012 when they told it will be replaced by Tizen with no way to upgrade (and no Tizen phones available for another year.)

Only reason we see those two here is the author of this blog. Every brand that has even remotely mentioned in same context as Tizen is now a Tizen partner whereas likes of Huawei, HTC and ZTE need not to be mentioned after Windows Phone.
It same as Tomi insisting that Telefonica is in the Tizen board even though they left a long time ago and recently told how pleased they are to offer carrier billing for their Windows Phone customers in cooperation with Microsoft.

But we don't get to read news like that in this blog.

Gonzalo

Tomi, When will you give us more accurate comparison between apple and samsung ? Can you compare Iphone 5s to Galaxy s4 in markets where they are properly used. (on line shopping etc)

Also it would be good to measure io7 vs kit kat as they both are just released.

Comparing Ford Fiesta with Audi 7, umm not a good yard stick. Take Japan, Germany, USA, UK etc to measure 5s and s4

Baron95

@Rotten "Europeans hate Microsoft products."

Really?

Last time I checked, Windows was the #1 Desktop OS in Europe. Xbox was the #1 Game Console in Europe. XboxLive was the #1 Game Service in Europe. Office was the #1 Productivity Suite in Europe. Internet Explorer was the #1 Browser in Europe.

That is a whole lot of hate right there.

KPOM

Bada fizzled and Tizen is going nowhere, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Samsung fork Android, particularly since Google looks to be reasserting control over proper Android through Motorola and the Nexus lines. It would also be interesting to see the breakout by version of Android. Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone. It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X, and probably isn't being used in the same manner.

Jone

Given the complete dominance of Android it would be interesting to see which ecosystem these devices are part of. I guess Google is the dominat player, but surly other players exist like Amazon and I guess Chinese users don't use Google?
I think Ecosystems are more interesting than the underlying OS.
Is this possible to dig up?

Werty

So, "the most accurate forecaster" manages to tell us that ZTE makes Windows Phones. And that Huawei doesn't. And that Samsung makes Bada-phones. Wow.

On the other hand, the same forecaster did tell us in the beginning of the year that Blackberry would be the third most sold OS with about 4-6% market share this year and that Tizen would have 2% market share in sold devices in Q4/13.

E.Casais

"Anything running Android 2.3 or below these days should be considered a featurephone."

Meaningless without a clear-cut, rigorous definition of what is a feature phone, a smartphone, a superphone, a dumbphone, etc.

"It certainly isn't in the same class as a Galaxy S4, HTC One, or even Moto X,"

High-end vs. low-end within a device type (i.e. smartphone) is not identical with different device types (i.e. smart vs. feature).

"and probably isn't being used in the same manner."

We already went through this discussion in this blog. We do not know. We just do not know. We do not have the necessary statistics.

"it would be nice to start seeing total mobile market numbers."

Yup.

Actually, it never made sense to me to differentiate between "feature" and "smart" phones -- the definition of a smartphone is so amorphous that it is more relevant to distinguish between low-end, mid-range and high-end devices -- whatever their input type, application run-time or OS.


Ben

*GASP*
Apple is losing market share.

They should totally hire Steve Ballmer to right the ship. Heck, if Microsoft could get 1 out of 10 Symbian users to switch to Windows Phone they could probably get 1 out of 30 Apple users to switch. However, getting anyone to use Windows Phone is such a feat that the board would have to promise him untold millions for that accomplishment.

RottenApple

@Baron95:


"Really? Last time I checked, Windows was the #1 Desktop OS in Europe. "

Last time I checked Microsoft has a quasi-monopoly on desktop OSs.
There's a vast difference between buying something because it's good and buying something because there's no viable alternative.

@KPOM: Hey, don't insult my trusty old HTC desire by declaring it a feature phone.

Baron95

@Jone "I think Ecosystems are more interesting than the underlying OS."

You are absolutely correct. It is very easy to separate Google-Android (Samsung, Moto, HTC, LG, etc) from the Non-Google-Android (currently only Chinese OEMs for sales mostly in China).

Per the Android OHA licensing, no manufacturer that forks Android can ship any devices with Google-Android. So it is a binary decision. You either go all-in Google services exclusively on all devices or none at all.

Since Amazon does not ship phones. It is easy to separate.

Notice how I reported my predictions for YE 2014 separating Google-Android and non-Google Android. They are completely different markets. The only reason non-Google-Android flourishes in China is because the Google services are blocked in China. That was a stupid move by Google - in fit of ethical purity.

But with each passing release, Google-Android pulls further and further ahead of Non-Google-Android. Now with ART coming with Kit-Kat and beyond the gap will be huge. I think 64-bit Android also will be Google-Services only.

Forking Android is not an option for Samsung. They'd have to stop shipping all Google-Android phones the second they ship a forked one. They'd have to go the Tizen road or any other completely new OS to move away from Google in a progressive way.

Baron95

@Rotten I'm pretty sure that Xbox One and kinect are at the top of the Christmas list for millions or Europeans. And XboxLive play-card/subscription-cards will be given as gifts by the millions in Europe.

You need to start accepting facts vs running purely on emotion. I know that Tomi's blog is like a whale cemetery where emotionally displaced Nokia fans come to lament and die.

But for crying out loud chap. Get a grip. The world is great. You have Google/Samsung, Apple, Nokia/Microsoft to choose from. Why being so bitter because the feature phone OS (Symbian) died?

Move on - enjoy live. Invest. Make some money.

Be thankful for Microsoft. Without it, there would be one last choice and Nokia would go the way of RIM and Palm and NEC.

KPOM

@E-cassais and @rottenapple, I don't mean to imply that a phone purchased in 2010 or 2011 running Android 2.3 is a "featurephone." However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011.

We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful. Even though Apple is now down to about 30% of the tablet market, they still dominate the web usage statistics. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar outsized "mobile usage share" for the iPhone.

Last quarter, Samsung finally revealed that it sold about 100 million Galaxy S and Note phones over the past year. Over the same period, Apple sold about 150 million iPhones. Since Apple and Samsung are the only companies making appreciable money on mobile hardware right now, that lines up pretty nicely with their respective profit shares.

@Baron, can Samsung do a "de facto" fork by adding more and more of their own APIs? Does 64-bit give them an opportunity to do more of that? If Google needs to keep writing Android to the lowest common denominator, would Samsung be able to write their own APIs to take advantage of their upcoming processor designs?

I'm sure Samsung isn't too happy with Google right now. They are potentially undermining the Galaxy S/Note business model by selling phones and tablets such as the Nexus 5 and 7 at much lower prices than Samsung. Google couldn't care less whether any OEM makes any money (much the same way Microsoft was with Windows in the 1990s and 2000s). Plus, if Google isn't ready with a 64-bit version of Android in time for the Galaxy S5 launch it puts them in a bad position.

MH

If the stats are to be relied on (and I'm not hallucinating) only 0.1% market share is held by non-Nokia Windows Phones. So while other companies may make them, it looks like only Nokia is selling them.

Unlike the tablet debacle it does make sense (to MS) for Microsoft to just buy Nokia because their "partners" aren't contributing to the platform and neither will they be hurt very much to drop from 0.1% to 0.0% market share.

On the "what people feel about Microsoft" topic I think the feeling is similar to what people feel about government. They resent paying tax and view politicians as a bunch of self-important thieves, but that doesn't stop them using the roads and the health service etc. and no-one has come up with a better idea yet.

E.Casais

@KPOM

"However, one purchased in late 2013 likely is being sold to the same type of person who purchased an S40 or similar low-end device in 2010 or 2011."

Methodologically, this is very dubious. Devices must be classified according to their capabilities, not how/whether those capabilities are used. This latter aspect serves to classify end-users, not devices.

To recap: you can have people using "smartphones" as "feature phones", but this is a classification of people, not of devices themselves (whatever "smart" and "feature" mean), and it has nothing to do whether the OS is recent or not. After all, somebody may be using a brand new Android 4.4 gadget just for calls and SMS -- you see the methodological quagmire you end up with.

"We don't have lots of market data but the iPad mobile usage statistics Apple cites is useful."

It is interesting, but if there are two device classes whose usage patterns differ a lot, it is phones and tablets (practically no voice calls, vast majority of tablets used as WLAN-only devices without SIM, lots of long sessions of media consumption vs. lots of communication, etc).

We really need detailed statistics on the topic. Let us hope that Tomi can come up with some insights.

Alex Kerr

What's the current story with feature phones?

It's only just mid this year (I think) that smartphones sales have overtaken featurephone sales. There are currently less than 2 billion smartphones in use in the world, but 4 billion featurephones (effectively baby/low-end smartphones) and 1 billion dumbphones (can only make calls and texts).

Ericsson in their latest Mobility report project around 4 billion featurephones still in use in 2019. So they're not disappearing anytime soon...

I'd be interested in what current usage numbers are, especially in the developing world.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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