My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Bloodbath Results of the Smaller Guys - LG and Nokia report Q3 | Main | My Thoughts On Nokia Handset Unit Sales to Microsoft - In Short: Is Bad WAY to Sell Something and thus gets you bad bargain »

October 29, 2013

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c8833019b006e5557970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Bloodbath Results, Latest Apple Quarter - More evidence of Peak iPhone:

Comments

Lou Mannheim

And very much worth noting is that Apple regularly gets 60-70% of total operational profits from the whole mobile handset business worldwide. This is likely to grow as Samsung, much more than Apple, feels the pressure from Chinese ultra cheap smartphones.

Gonzalo

I keep begging that apple will continue with he current strategy, everyone, EVERYONE was soo wrong about their first weekend sales and numbers that I keep thinking to myself, thanks good they don't listen to anyone, I don't want to own a cheap plastic phone that 6 months down the road is obsolete, I want 64 bit power and soon, world class computer power apps in my computer in my pocket, the iPhone 5s, yes, forget the smart phone term ... this is a small computer that can be used to make phone calls, Samsung and Co are 2 generations behind and when they catch up, their product will last 6 months before becoming obsolete, the beauty of Apple is that hardware last you a year longer than Samsung effectively in the long term making it a cheaper investment.

Earendil Star

I think one factor many are overlooking is that this time all markets, including China, offered the iPhone 5s simultaneously. This means the initial sales numbers should be higher than in the past, given the wider market offering. Will this be reflected in weaker sales during the following period (since buyers in some markets had to wait to put their hands on the new iPhone)?

We'll see...

RottenApple

Wanna bet that the resident Apple-tards will dismiss these numbers as insignificant again?

Now that market share has peaked it's only a matter of time that sales numbers will peak, too, with all the high end markets nearing saturation.

And what then...?

@Gonzalo:

Please post your retarded Apple advertisement elsewhere.

Gonzalo

@ RottenApple

Then we ask Mercedes Benz, Porsche, BMW, Harley Davidson, Rolex and many more who care little about market share but care about quality, durability and value. If you care about market share keep drinking Coke and eating hamburgers, i rater drink wine.

Nt everyone considers market share a good measure and plenty of companies that create value don't do it vi market share. Now if one's opinion is so offensive to you it means that anything that is not market share related goes well beyond what you understand about a product and its capabilities.

If you can't discern between and obsolete 32 bit smart phone and a 64 bit pocket computer it's fine with me , not everyone digs deep into technology before commenting, but what i sad is that in a blog like this one you can not control yourself and use a good argument but resort to insult people. Good for you, i do not lower myself to your level and if you want to insult me again, feel free please but remember, my point is not market share, it's quality, durability and 64 bits that 9 million people happily accepted.

Winter

@Gonzalo
"Rolex and many more who care little about market share but care about quality, durability and value."

The funny thing is, that a $5 Digital watch keeps the time better than a $10k mechanical Rolex.

@Gonzales
"If you can't discern between and obsolete 32 bit smart phone and a 64 bit pocket computer it's fine with me , not everyone digs deep into technology before commenting,"

This comment makes it obvious that you are one of those who do not dig into the technology before commenting. The iPhone using a 64 bit processor with 1G of RAM has only incremental influence on performance or capabilities.

foo

> Then we ask Mercedes Benz, Porsche, BMW, Harley Davidson, Rolex and many more
> who care little about market share but care about quality, durability and value. If you
> care about market share keep drinking Coke and eating hamburgers, i rater drink wine.

The problem is that Android is evolving much faster than iOS.

Would Mercedes Benz, Porsche, BMW, Harley Davidson and Rolex have kept their status symbol if they became worse than competitors?

A better comparison would be the American versus Japanese car industries. Americans were unbeatable -- until the Japanese came with cars that were not only cheaper, but also better than the American.

That's what happening with Apple right now. We can see the trend now, but the full effect of the change will be only seen in 5-10 years.

Huber

@Gonzalo

>> Then we ask Mercedes Benz, Porsche, BMW, Harley Davidson, Rolex and many more who care little about market share but care about quality, durability and value. If you care about market share keep drinking Coke and eating hamburgers, i rater drink wine.

Yes, because BMW only offers the 760i and the M5, they would never release a 116i. Oh wait...

Porsche has a products like Cayenne, Cayman, Boxster, Carrera, Panamera, 918. You can get sedans, sports cars, racing cars, SUVs, Diesel, Hybrid, 6 or 8 cylinders etcetc.

It is really funny that you don't even manage to troll correctly. At least you could find examples of companies without such a wide price range in their product portfolio. Next time try it with some real exception to the rule, like B&O.

Focusing on profits alone has found another victim lately, Loewe from Germany. As the market share shrinks, negative side-effects add up, economies of scale work against you, and in the end you die.

Note that Apple would have gone bancrupt in 1995 without MS bailing them out. Main reason: Fosusing on profits alone while neglecting market share.

Quantity has a quality all its own, xou know.

>> If you can't discern between and obsolete 32 bit smart phone and a 64 bit pocket computer it's fine with me

Your '64 bit pocket compute' does not even have a real file browser. You cannot decide which programs you install because all you are allowed to use are Apple-controlled Apps from their App Store. You cannot even attach an MP3-file to an E-mail.

But for some people this is a blessing instead of a curse because they are too stupid to handle the complexity of a real computer.

darwinphish

Tomi,

We all know the growth in the smartphone market is in the low end, so it should not be surprising that a company which sells nothing under $400 is not growing market share. I am not saying this is insignificant, just that its not really all that insightful.

I'll take this one step further and suggest maybe its time to stop counting smartphones separate from all devices. If there is no distinction between a $50 Coolpad and a $700 Note3, why make the distinction between smart and non-smart? I think we are at the point where market share of total mobile phones is more telling since the denominator less subjective and the growth of which is better understood.

Baron95

Tomi, Next quarter (Oct-Dec) quarter will *not* have full impact of the iPhone 5S/5C launch. Those phones have launched in a very small number of countries (11) for the entire quarter, and even in those, not on every carrier - For example China Mobile will launch later.

By the middle of the quarter, November 15, those phones will be launched on only 35 countries.

And calling peak iPhone before it is even fully rolled out in the major operators is highly premature. Just look at what happened in Japan. YoY iPhone sales are up 41% on the strength of a few days of sale on DoCoMo.

It is, in fact, apparent that it is Android that has reached peak in the USA and Japan and now sees its share and units declining.

iPhone volumes will likely continue to increase at low double digits pace, and it is not out of the question that Apple will have a $60B CY Q4/FYQ1.

Worldwide market share should remain largely the same with maybe a couple of points pick up due to CM launch.

RottenApple

@Huber:

"Focusing on profits alone has found another victim lately,"

Let's not forget that Apple already was almost there once. There's no guarantee it can't happen again.

@Baron95:

You predicted peak Android last year and it didn't come. So what? Making anylyses with an intended bias to a specific company is never going to yield good results.

Also, let's not forget that despite not having launched everywhere, the iPhone 5 is already available in all major markets. What's left is more or less peanuts, except for China Mobile. Also, Tomi's numbers all contain 4 quarters so that seasonal effects are mostly eliminated. And the trend is clearly visible. Apple had its peak last year.

As for the Japan numbers, big deal. That's typical one-time effects that are just evening out the shrinking numbers in other countries.

Baron95

@Rotten Fruit. Android has peaked in the US and likely this quarter in Japan as well. And possibly in the UK, Canada and other advanced economies that I don't track too closely.

Also, full Google Android has peaked even on a global basis.

If you are talking about global Android market share (lumping Google Android with forked,no services Android), that is not likely to happen until after the full migration to smartphones - circa 2017.

khim

I like Baron95. He's really simple. As in "Apple are winners, everyone else are losers".

Consider a situation where market share of a given company A is flat and is only growing because it's becomes available in a new countries.

Well, if A==RIM or A==Nokia then conclusion is "This is a story of market by market battles. Looking at aggregate number means nothing. That is simply the point where Nokia and RIM ran out of places to hide."

And if A==Apple then it's "And calling peak iPhone before it is even fully rolled out in the major operators is highly premature."

Well, technically that's correct in both cases but if we'll go by his own words alone (more-or-less flat wordlwide market share with growing number of markets == collapse is imminent) then Apple should be bankrupt in a few years. Which is NOT the prediction many are ready accept today (me included).

Of course if Apple *will* collapse in a few years then Baron95's past explanations WRT fate of Nokia and RIM will suddenly be justified... although I doubt Baron95 will like such justification.

Winter

@Boron95
"Also, full Google Android has peaked even on a global basis."

That is not an operating system.

So what is it you want to say? That you cannot bear the thought of "competition", and are mentally unable to combine offerings from different companies into a single category?

E.Casais

Those discussions about peak vs. non-peak, selected-markets vs. global-market, quarter X vs. quarter Y, operator X vs. all operators, flagship launch vs. stead state make me think that one should probably look at smoothed moving averages to compare the performance of various manufacturers, and not raw monthly/quarterly figures.

Winter

@E.Casals
"make me think that one should probably look at smoothed moving averages to compare the performance of various manufacturers, and not raw monthly/quarterly figures."

Which is what Tomi was doing above.

Also, all such data show that Android is gaining relative to iPhone.

E.Casais

@Leebase

"The latter customers do not participate much at all in the ecosystem sales. "

It is not just apps, mp3, e-books and fancy cases you know.

Tomi will probably disagree and may fire off a salvo of statistics showing how much content is being bought on feature phones (in your general sense).

A problem is that the perspective of what an "ecosystem" entails differs amongst countries. For instance, how much e-money banking is taking place via mobile phones in the USA compared to, say, Kenya or South Africa?

No, not paying for electronic content in app stores, or replacing a credit card at the POS; e-money -- transferable to anybody with a corresponding mobile e-money bank account. Tomi has been talking about that kind of unglamorous, below-the-radar applications for a while -- they are growing, are major factors in Africa, and have the potential to become major factors worldwide. And Apple, Google and Microsoft are absent from that ecosystem...

Winter

@LeeBase/E.Casals
What is this "Ecosystem" you talk about? From the use it seems to be an euphemism for "paying consumer".

A BUSINESS ECOSYSTEM in the original meaning of the word is:

“An economic community supported by a foundation of interacting organizations and individuals—the organisms of the business world. The economic community produces goods and services of value to customers, who are themselves members of the ecosystem. The member organisms also include suppliers, lead producers, competitors, and other stakeholders. Over time, they coevolve their capabilities and roles, and tend to align themselves with the directions set by one or more central companies. Those companies holding leadership roles may change over time, but the function of ecosystem leader is valued by the community because it enables members to move toward shared visions to align their investments, and to find mutually supportive roles.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_ecosystem

Paying consumers are only a small part of the ecosystem. And consumers generate only part of the income. Ads and marketing deliver additional income.

Btw, 30% and more of the income of the iPhone "ecosystem" is hoarded by Apple (hard= and software). The picture of a giant parasitic mold sapping the iPhone "ecosystem" comes to mind.

E.Casais

@Winter:

"From the use it seems to be an euphemism for "paying consumer".

Actually, I follow a similar definition as the one you propose. The issue being discussed was specifically that "the latter customers do not participate much at all in the ecosystem sales". From this -- admittedly restricted -- perspective, one is missing the facts that the ecosystem is bigger and more varied, and customers do massively partake in economic transactions -- except these are not the ones everybody thinks at first.

The second point is that an ecosystem is not just B2C commercial transactions, as you rightly point out.

RottenApple

@leebase:

That may be, but the lower end customers still need to be served - and it's a faulty assumption that those are valueless. They are only valueless if you put corporate greed at the front of your business model - like Apple does.

All that superphone talk is nonsense anyway. In what way do the high end phones offer genuine added value? Seriously, the gap between entry level and high end phones is closing, not widening. Today's entry level smartphones are miles ahead of the first iPhones and they also can be safely considered 'pocket computers'. If you can get almost the same processing power and features for far less money (no, we're not there yet but that's where the market will head to) I wouldn't hold my bets for Apple.

BTW, iPhone may be dominant in the US - but it's far from that in many other markets - even if you just count the so-called 'superphone' segment

Roy Liu

Tomi, Apple showing once again that it's the software, not a spec war:

iPhone 5S vs. Nokia Lumia 1020 Camera Shootout
Laptop Magazine:

The iPhone 5s conclusively beat the Nokia Lumia 1020 in our photo face-off, taking seven out of 10 rounds–and tying one. Even after updating the Lumia 1020′s camera software, which reduced issues with the blue color cast on many images, colors were still more accurate on the iPhone. Apple’s device also excelled when delivering detail and contrast.

The advantage that the Lumia 1020 has is that you can recompose your shot after you take it because of the phone’s very high 41-MP resolution. Overall, though, the iPhone 5s snapped better-looking images in a wider range of conditions.

virgil

@leebase, you say "That's why now EVERY major telecom company has signed on with Apple. There are no more significant holdouts (that I know of)."

But it could also be that Apple eventually gave up on some of its terms, during the negotiation. You have no way of knowing that, and I suspect that China Mobile got a better deal than, say, Sprint.

Huber

@Leebase:

>> There is no "global Android" ecosystem. Android is fragmented in many ways

Only if you count every Android App Store as own ecosystem. But I can run various App Stores on Android or simply sideload Apps if they are not available in my region.

>> The Galaxy segment (if you prefer) is the one that's selling the high profit data plans for the telcos.

This is currently true.

But the time will come when $100-Android phones will be able to satisfy the needs for 90% of users, like we see today with cheap Windows Notebooks.

Then the market will change radically.

This is already happening in the tablet space, where $200-tablets are 'enough' for most people. You do not need a $500 iPad or an Asus Transformer TF701 to surf the web and do some E-Mailing on the couch anymore.

Two years ago $200-tablets were junk, as well as $300 smartphones.

My prediction is that in two years it will be tough to sell tablets for more than $100 and phone for more than $200 for most companies.

And companies like Samsung and Apple have to be prepared for this inevitable outcome.

Winter

@Leebase:
"There is no "global Android" ecosystem. Android is fragmented in many ways"

If you look at the definition I posted above, there is.

There is a global ecosystem of parts and assembly, design know-how, app construction, and so on, and so on. Only when you limit "ecosystem" to mean strict app store B2C, and only that, you could even start to make a point.

Baron95

@Khim - So you really can't make a distinction of Nokia and RIM being decimated in the West and hiding in poor countries and Apple who methodically locks in operators in multi-year contracts (early on with exclusivity) country after country based on the product replacement cycle and production capacity?

Nokia and RIM were in retreat. Apple is in advance mode. It just planted its flag, among others, on T-Mobile USA in Q2, DoCoMo in Q3 and China Mobile in Q4 (likely in 10 days).

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati