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August 20, 2013

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antacid

Even after all this time since the Elop era began, it still feels bad to think of all the regular Joe and Jane workers who've lost their lively-hoods to the likes of these megalomaniacal monsters. Elop and Ballmer, using what Nokia had built over many decades, all of its good-will trashed, just for the purpose of running a scorched-earth scam in a vain attempt to reclaim the big-dog crown. Sickening...Shameful...

vladkr

Errr... Tomi, Nokia's flagship unit is the one making (winter) tyres. Oh wait, they separated in 1988, which is too bad as the latter is quite successful actually.

By the way, have you tried to calculate how much Elop did cost to Nokia overall (losses, loss of earnings, cash-drain, loss of patents, factories idling, etc.) ?
I started calculating, but I'm limited to the information I have, lacking some figures (loss of earnings on patents Nokia offered to patent-trolls + Microsoft), being unsure on others (some figures change wether they are in one Nokia report or in another - for instance there can be one figure for Q2 results in the Q2 report, and another figure for Q2 results in the Q3 report)...


But so far, my bet is about 50-60 billions euros. What number would you say ?

Of course, I don't include collateral losses, like the one faces by Salo, Oulu, and Finnish revenue agency.

Nokia Cunt

Nokia guys are confused, they are waiting for the company to close on its own.CEO and his bunch of Jokers would finish this great company quite faster.

Kenny

After all the brickbats and stones thrown at Microsoft over Windows 8 due to the lack of a start button MS finally caved in and will include a Start button in Windows 8.1.

But has it? This new Start button is nothing like the classic Start button with gives access to your apps. The new Win 8.1 start button merely gives access to a range of os settings.

MS isn't a company which listens to feedback. It has the corporate culture of a monopolist and operates best in an environment where there is little or no competition. With its new Start button MS thumbs its nose it at its critics and users and says, "Deal with it!"

daz

I think Tomi has mentioned several times that Nokia failed to produce a querty lumia. Now LG has released one:
LG Enact with slide-out QWERTY
http://www.gsmarena.com/lg_enact_with_slideout_qwerty_keypad_goes_official_-news-6625.php

Tester

Great. A phone that looks two years old by looking at the specs.

Can't it just be that the demand for physical keyboards is grossly overrated by some people?

I don't think that a company like Samsung would pass if they felt there was a significant market for such a device, wouldn't they?

It can't be a coincidence that none of the major manufacturers produce a keyboard device with decent specs, can it?

zlutor

@Tomi: are you aware of this one: http://www.gamespot.com//news/microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-to-retire-6413579?

How does it effect Nokia?

daz

Ballmer gives up all hopes.

So Vatar

Well, now that MS's Ballmer announced to retire within 12 months, what will this mean for Flop's Windows only strategy? Sure, we don't know Ballmer's successor, but changes in strategy are more than likely. Will MS go all in and purchase Nokia's smartphone operations? Give up on windows phone because no meaningful market share is obtainable?

If Nokia were a well run company they would have plan A, B, and C ready to go in the drawer to address changes at MSFT. As we know Flop has only plan A.

Best scenario: Flop follows his boss at MSFT and retires too, hopefully within less than 12 months.

BTW, MSFT's stock is up +7% just because Ballmer announced his retirement! Wanna guess what Nokia's stock will do once Flop steps back?

daz

Now only Elop needs to resign as well and the world can return to sanity.

foo

Ballmer announces retirement and shares jump 10%.

I wonder what would happen if Elop announced retirement...

Winter

I think it is entirely possible that Ballmer will not be able to sit it out for 12 months. He might not even make it to next January.

Name

Elop goes to Microsoft as the new CEO. One can hope...

chithanh

@leebase
>> Office all by itself, is a reason some people will like RT. Just like some people are just fine with a tablet as an eReader.

None less than NVidia CEO Jen-Hsung Huang has said it publicly: The reason for the miserable Windows RT sales is the lack of Outlook. How did Microsoft not think about that!! Of course Windows RT 8.1 will come with Outlook and Surface RT 2 will be a great success, fuelled by handing every Microsoft employee two devices instead of just one.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57597706-94/nvidia-ceo-were-working-hard-on-surface-2/
http://www.zdnet.com/microsoft-employees-start-collecting-their-free-surface-rts-7000008712/

cornelius

@Name
Oh, man, Elop the next Microsoft CEO, that would be awesome. Is there an online petition, or anything like that? We should start a grassroots movement.

Paul Ionescu

Steve Balmer retires from Microsoft! Is Elop next?

Baron95

A WIndows RT tablet is a web browser tablet with the ability to run Microsoft Office. That is it. Forget thurd party apps - not there in any meaningful numbers.

If the use case is Browser + Office (which incidentally is what the vast majority of ppl do on PCs) than it works. For anything else, it doesn't. Yes there may be a few games and readers theres, but that is not core.

If Nokia ran the business case, and there are customers (e.g. corporate) asking for it, what is the big deal?

It is neither going to destroy Nokia, not propel it to greatness. It is just like a new device to round out some enterprise sales or be on display next to its phones to attract attention.

So Vatar

@Baron:
"If Nokia ran the business case, and there are customers (e.g. corporate) asking for it, what is the big deal?"

I agree, IF Nokia ran a business case and came to the conclusion it is in Nokia's best interest to offer an RT tablet, then they should.

However, an objective analysis would also consider the following issues:
- Does an RT table fit (Elop's) current strategy creating a Windows Phone ecosystem. How does an incompatible tablet enhance the ecosystem? Well, it does not.
- If Nokia wants to offer devices running a different OS, should Nokia go for "real" Windows, Android, or any other OS? An Android tablet to prepare Android phones might have some positives.
- Looking at the market failure of Windows RT, what can Nokia do differently to be more successful than MS, Asus, and the other manufacturers who lost $$$ on RT?
- Does Nokia have sufficient resources to enable an RT offering without jeopardizing core functions that Nokia needs to survive?
- Is there any synergy manufacturing tablet sized devices in Nokia plants? Or does it just add to fixed costs?
- How would an RT tablet impact precious cash / cash flow?

So yeah, they can look at the business case if they want. And if they look at it from an "is this beneficial for Nokia?" point of few they can only come to one conclusion: No Nokia RT tablet.

MSP

Launching a Windows RT tablet when Microsoft is dumping about 5 million Windows RT tablets it can't sell at firesale prices - just when I was beginning to think that it was impossible for a CEO to do anything stupider than what Elop has already done, Elop has just done exactly that.

Tomi T Ahonen

On Ballmer

Thanks for the comments. I posted brief first blog comment today from the airport, will write more of an analysis blog on Ballmer and Microsoft future of course.

Quick thoughts, several of you can guess my direction. We heard the preview to this in Bill Gates - still Microsoft's Chairman - critical comments a while back. He said Ballmer had some problems (is now gone). And Gates singled out Windows smartphones as the biggest single failure during Ballmer's tenure (I said then, it means that Windows Phone will be discontinued). I think the writing now is VERY clearly on the wall, that Microsoft will pull the plug on Windows Phone soon. They might announce its end even before the new CEO is in, certainly the new CEO (unless that happens to be Elop haha) will make big changes and the first is to get rid of the deadwood - Windows Phone.

Also remember all the senior execs at Microsoft who either quit or were fired by Ballmer relating to Windows Phone. Gates will have heard that and tolerated Ballmer's management but now Gates will recall the related internal complaints from those people, and revisit how massively the Windows project was demolished from the inside. When you resign in protest, its a pretty clear sign that the management of the project consider the path doomed. Microsoft has many real winnable fights it has to focus on (Office, PC Windows, Xbox) and can't afford the distractions of the burning platform that is Windows Phone, for the new CEO.

Most alarmingly, remember that its not in Microsoft's ethos to go warning its 'partners' about strategic changes and Microsoft has no qualms about leaving its 'partners' stuck on dead-end technology paths, when Microsoft feels like changing its game. So don't expect Elop to have any advance warnings about when Windows Phone is suddenly announced to be dead..

I also think there are coincidential timing issues that may have clues to what really happened. We've heard Microsoft was seriously evaluating buying Nokia, but decided against it. Now with timing, we know thats roughly when Gates went public on his disapproval of Ballmer and of Windows Phone. It was around the time of Microsoft's tablet launch - obviously a failure - and just after the 'BFF breakup' between Ballmer and Elop, who seemed to be best buddies in 2011 and suddenly both seemed to want new partners. I have some thoughts and need to check on the timelines but I think these are part of the puzzle. Ballmer was effectively fired with that Gates 'almost vote of no confidence' haha, and was no doubt given an ultimatum, resign within x months or I will fire you. Ballmer was given enough time to go set up his moves which he's been doing now. And obviously Gates stepped in to rule against the Nokia acquisition - mostly no doubt because how much Elop had damaged Nokia to that point. Gates would have wanted to buy Nokia when he was in charge, if it had been this affordable.

Obviously Elop's 'all in Windows' strategy is looking again more silly now, after we hear Ballmer is gone. This moment has to be a wake-up call for Nokia's Board.

More thoughts in the blog soon.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John

As I have said previously, my guess is that if Nokia were to launch a Windows tablet it would be because it was a condition of its agreement with Microsoft.

foo

@Tomi

> I think the writing now is VERY clearly on the wall, that Microsoft will
> pull the plug on Windows Phone soon.

I don't think it will happen anytime soon.

Microsoft *needs* a mobile strategy, and Windows Phone is the only strategy they have.

And as we have learnt with XBox, they are prepared to pour billions into a platform until it becomes successful.

> Most alarmingly, remember that its not in Microsoft's ethos to go warning
> its 'partners' about strategic changes and Microsoft has no qualms about
> leaving its 'partners' stuck on dead-end technology paths, when Microsoft
> feels like changing its game.

That's true.

And we know that Microsoft is planning to abandon the software licensing model (where it has to compete with free alternatives like Android) and become a "devices and services" company.

That means that they will eventually compete with device makers in both PC and mobile markets.

They've already tested the water with Surface, and they will probably keep trying for a few years until it succeeds.

nokia booklet

anyone here remember THE NOKIA BOOKLET 3G?

chithanh

@Tomi
Microsoft pulling the plug on Windows Phone? Interesting. Eldar Murtazin reported last month that Microsoft was considering a complete restart of their mobile platform. Back then, Microsoft employees publicly denied this on Twitter, but shortly after that their messages were deleted.

http://www.neowin.net/news/microsofts-windows-phone-design-team-deletes-tweet-on-revamp-rumor

Azure

While I seldom agree*) with you, Tomi, but this time I have to say, that you are absolutely right. If I have red the tea leaves correctly, there will be both Nokia phablet and Nokia tablet introduced this Autumn. Unfortunately the tablet seems to be with RT, not Win8. Future looks bleak to Nokia in my opinion, too.

*) This includes especially the MeeGo story, which I was seeing to evolve very near, but outside of the MeeGo organization. While I agree that cancelling MeeGo was very unfortunate decision from Nokia, I am absolutely sure, that there was lot of rumors inside Nokia/MeeGo that many believe to be facts why the decision was made. And you are one person, that has been told these rumors as fact and who relays those rumors forward.

This also includes timing of Windows Phone migration decision and whom did it. If you would know the date when Nokia made agreement with Microsoft to build first WP7.5 devices vs. Elop starting as CEO, you would wonder what else had to be been agreed even before Elop started as CEO (first rumors for Elop's nomination arose in July 2010, so actual nomination would of been most likely in June-July 2010; shortly after AGM). At least I would expect that Memorandum of Understanding/Agreement negotiations and initial talks before this kind of decision takes usually several weeks, if not months.

In my opinion Nokia hired Elop to trasform Nokia smartphone business from Symbian to Windows Phone. Unfortunately MeeGo (and more importantly Qt) was thrown with the wash water. There was also lot of Murphy's Law incidences, that created favorable environment to cancel Nokia's MeeGo product line. As Jolla case shows, there is still future for Linux/Qt-based OS.

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