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« Are we naked with or without data? | Main | The Only Thing Worse for Nokia to Do, than Launch a Tablet Now - Is to launch a Windows based tablet »

August 15, 2013


Pekka Perkeles

Fire Elop Now! :-)

Pekka Perkeles

If I guess right, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad/Yulong together sell way more in Chinese market than Apple in the whole world.

Interesting, isn't it?


"OMG!!!! What is happening?"

I sounds as if you might need clean underwear?

Still, these repeated "This time WP will surely take off!" are beyond funny. But the numbers do prove that if you sell WP phones way below cost, you actually can get rid of them.


Android will reach 1B installed base this year. Probably in November.

That is a milestone.

In comparison, Android churns out the total installed base of iOS in less than half a year. The total installed base of WP in two weeks.

Today, I saw a Huawei billboard for an Android phone in the Netherlands. The competition is ehating up (again).



You are still working on the post. But the totals of the first two tables do not match. You can delete this comment.


The rumors are getting louder:

=== Nokia to launch Windows RT tablet in September, alleged pictures leak ===

Can it be true? Can Stephen Elop be *that* crazy?

He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?

Looks like a perfect ending, the final chapter in the Elop Effect book.


"He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?"

So the tablets are now a loss of Nokia instead? Improves the books of MS.


> A Windows Phone Maker (Nokia) passed a previously Android market leader (HTC) in volume and market share!!!!

That is surprising indeed.

But don't forget that 3 years ago Nokia was *much* bigger than HTC. So it went from "much bigger" to "slightly bigger, fighting for the scraps of the market".

> Windows Phone firmly established as 3rd ecosystem with 3.7% market share

I wouldn't say "firmly established" considering that 3.7% is closer to zero than to the second player.

> Nokia, instead of falling off the top 10 list, as predicted here by Tomi and many others, is - wait - moving up the list.

The big question is: can Nokia survive much longer with a lunatic CEO and less than 3% of market share?


It's fun to see HTC so close to Nokia at the bottom. It was always their dream to become Nokia biggest rival. I don't think though they meant it such way :D


@ He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?

They also saw other vendors (Acer, Asus) cancelling their RT support and lineup. So he might feel this has to be great chance to demonstrate his elopness once more :D



Can you shed a little light on how you calculate installed base? I am not doubting your numbers, just wondering how you arrive at them.



HTC missing from list of WP manufacturers. Huawei too. Both listed by e.g. IDC. Please update.


Here's interesting detail:
according to Canalys Lenovo sold 95% of its phones in China.
If Lenovo would lose its domestic sales, it would sell 570 000 phones and drop out of the list to somewhere in the rounding errors.
If Nokia would lose its domestic (Finland) sales, it would stay exactly where it is in the list.
It's interesting that we get to see what is effectively a local player in list of Global sales.


"It's interesting that we get to see what is effectively a local player in list of Global sales."

Funny. China takes care of 37% of the global Smartphone market. Losing that market is "painful". Finland will not register on a global scale.

Btw, Apple got around 45% of its Q2 sales in the USA.



>> all with 4"screens.

And here it will get interesting. Essentially this means there's very little incentive to upgrade from an iPhone 5. CPU speed is mostly a geek-only factor if the older device is still considered fast enough.

It means that Apple still has nothing to compete with in the growing large screen market which is completely owned by Android right now.


@Baron95 "3 - Will carriers continue to invest in the 3rd ecosystem (Windows Phone) as a bargaining chip or surrender to Apple and Google/Samsung?"

Why should they?

They can use Apple against Google, and Google against Apple. No need for a third one, specially one backed by Microsoft.

By the way, when it comes to the third ecosystem, my questions for the next quarters are:

1) Will Firefox OS become successful?

2) Will it steal market share from Windows Phone?

Firefox OS is cheap, is supported by carriers and manufacturers. It is a much better protection against Google/Apple/Microsoft, since it promotes the use of open standards. Apps developed using HTML5 and Javascript should run with little or no modification on all platforms.

So... I think it has potential, but we need to wait and see.



>> Apps developed using HTML5 and Javascript should run with little or no modification on all platforms.

You know, the same has been said about Java Mobile - but reality was quite different. Wanna bet that the same will happen here? All you need is some manufacturer who 'supports the standard better than all the other ones' and chaos will ensue.

'Write once, run everywhere' has been proven an utter failure in the past and a lot needs to happen for that to change. Besides, most users want native apps not offline websites.



You got my point quite well. Chinese market is huge. Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Coolpad all sell majority of their ~10M sales in China. Definitely with gentle push from Chinese government. Imagine BlackBerry making some agreement in China that would hand them sales of Coolpad? BlackBerry would grow their global sales 150% overnight by just getting a foothold in one country.
When one country has such a big footprint on statistic, I start to thirst for "rest of world" numbers.



Yes, the iSlaves may patiently wait for the iPhone 6, but what about the more casual users? Also don't forget non-US markets that have completely different dynamics with far less Apple dominance, both in people's minds and in the press.

Apple is playing a dangerous game here. They already missed one chance to keep the lead last year and it looks like they'll miss another chance this year. No, it won't irreparably harm their market situation but it certainly won't help. These kinds of screw-ups will be felt, even by a company like Apple.

The thing is, Apple is pricing the iPhone at the very top end of the market but when I look into spec sheets and similar stuff these days, it is merely an excellent mid-range phone, albeit heavily overpriced. I get similar specs on Android for a bit more than half the price Apple is asking for. Say what you want, but Apple really needs more options so that all the people willing to spend good money on their next phones may consider them. Right now they are completely losing the large screen crowd and it looks like they will be losing them for another year - which may well mean forever.

About Firefox: On principle I agree - and as a software developer I thoroughly hope that the system ends up a stillborn failure. This is something nobody needs except the marketing people trying to shove something new down people's throats. But we never know how the market will react. It has one thing going for it: There's no 'evil' name like Microsoft or Google attached to it which might attract a certain group of malcontents but beyond that I really see no market for it, if some Android manufacturer manages to keep prices as low as FF OS devices.


Only those who were from Microsoft/Elop will talk about ecosystem war. Why would a carrier use Windows to threaten/negotiate Google/Apple. The carrier will use another handset maker to threaten/negotiate with. The carrier will use Oppo/Lenovo to negotiate with Samsung/HTC/Sony. The carrier will use HTC to negotiate with Samsung. What a fail analogy made by Microsoftian!!!


Look it from different angle. Lenovo brand/distribution channel is worldwide, if Lenovo use it's power to start spreading to more region, it would become a major player that might topple Apple/Samsung easily.


The problem with Java is it's too complicated for developer to give a good run anywhere because the standard/experience across device is bad (Bad at scalability). The web browser on top of Linux OS (FireFox OS) would give a better experience since HTML is better at scalability. And HTML standard also open and not governed by 1 company

>Apple is playing a dangerous game here....

I think Apple is trapped with post-Jobs syndrome. They still feel they were the king of the world, and all carrier will kneel before them because they own the holly grail of phone. Google/Microsoft/Blackberry share a 10% revenue if the user buy an apps through carrier billing/purchase. Apple don't want to share revenue/power/flexibility to carrier. I believe more and more carrier will kick Apple ass for being too greedy and too stuck up, and I'm really looking forward for apple to fall even more deeply.

>About Firefox

If Google can capture 20% desktop market in USA with Chromebook, why Firefox couldn't get a good percentage of user with FireFox OS? I think for FF to success, it need to be priced around US$40 - US$ 100.


>> If Google can capture 20% desktop market in USA with Chromebook, why Firefox couldn't get a good percentage of user with FireFox OS? I think for FF to success, it need to be priced around US$40 - US$ 100.

USD 100 would already be too much. Also, don't forget that the price will be almost 100% hardware components.

So, if someone could produce an USD 40 FF device, what would keep others from doing an Android device for the same price. That's the obstacle FF is really facing. There's absolutely no reason why someone could produce a 'real' smartphone for the same cost. And say what you want: When price is factored out, there is no chance FF can hold up against Android.

As for Chromebook getting 20% of the US desktop market, where did you get this fantasy number? I don't see that happen - ever! You probably missed the fine print in the news. They got 20% of the sub-$300 laptop market - which isn't really that surprising because at that price it's close to impossible to manufacture a fully featured computer running Windows (i.e. they have no significant competition in that sector - and still manage only 20-25%.) But for mobile phones that's not the case. On specs that run FF OS you can also easily install Android so there's no real price advantage.


Price will not be factored out. ZTE is launching a $80 FFOS phone world wide, unlocked and unsusidized. A $10-$50 FFOS phone would sell in the billions.


Would it? If someone could manufacture a FF OS device for so cheap, what would prevent a competitor from producing an Android device for the same price?

And please don't say that FF has lower hardware requirements. I doubt that very much. The ZTE device for sure could run Android just as well on the same hardware specs. If someone else wanted, they could easily do a competing Android device and stop FF OS cold in the tracks.

Aside from the 'need for a third platform' (a dubious term to begin with) there's absolutely nothing FF OS has going for it.


Congratulations, Baron95. You managed to slip "Q3 will see Windows phone ship [...] [a]nd Q4 will see Windows Phone ship [...]" into a discussion about smartphone *sales*. Will the big write-off of shipped but unsold Windows phone units come in Q1, Q2 or Q3 of 2014?

When is the Microsoft money propping up Elop scheduled to dry up? Wonder if Windows phone will cease shipping as soon as that money stops flowing, just as some rather infamous advertising revenue dried up on an April Fools day when Microsoft stopped artificially propping that up.


> They got 20% of the sub-$300 laptop market - which isn't really that surprising because at that price it's close to impossible to manufacture a fully featured computer running Windows

I think you underestimate what Chromebooks have achieved so far. They do not compete outside the sub-$300 market; only two devices (the $650 Lenovo X131e which is marketed to education only, and the $1300 Chromebook Pixel) sell for significantly above that price. The sub-$300 market was previously dominated by netbooks, which are fully functioning Windows computers.

> And please don't say that FF has lower hardware requirements. I doubt that very much.

This probably depends on whether FirefoxOS is able to provide a better user experience on lowest end hardware. Cheapest decent Android phones like the Micromax A35 can be had for as little as 65 USD in emerging markets. Going lower will require too many compromises still.
Both Android and FirefoxOS will unquestionably run on devices at 50, 40, 30 USD price points. Question is, which platform will provide an acceptable user experience first. The current ZTE/Alcatel devices appear to me like test balloons which have deliberately higher specs than what is strictly required.

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