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« Are we naked with or without data? | Main | The Only Thing Worse for Nokia to Do, than Launch a Tablet Now - Is to launch a Windows based tablet »

August 15, 2013

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Pekka Perkeles

Fire Elop Now! :-)

Pekka Perkeles

If I guess right, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and Coolpad/Yulong together sell way more in Chinese market than Apple in the whole world.

Interesting, isn't it?

Baron95

OMG!!! The world is coming to end!!!

A Windows Phone Maker (Nokia) passed a previously Android market leader (HTC) in volume and market share!!!!

Windows Phone firmly established as 3rd ecosystem with 3.7% market share, 10 times the market share of Bada, Tomi's previous darling for 3rd ecosystem candidate.

Nokia, instead of falling off the top 10 list, as predicted here by Tomi and many others, is - wait - moving up the list.

Blackberry, following the Tomi playbook - keep investing in in-house OS, launch QWERTY smartphone, launch low cost devices - dropped out completely and put itself on the block.

OMG!!!! What is happening?

Winter

@Baron95
"OMG!!!! What is happening?"

I sounds as if you might need clean underwear?

Still, these repeated "This time WP will surely take off!" are beyond funny. But the numbers do prove that if you sell WP phones way below cost, you actually can get rid of them.

Winter

Android will reach 1B installed base this year. Probably in November.

That is a milestone.

In comparison, Android churns out the total installed base of iOS in less than half a year. The total installed base of WP in two weeks.

Today, I saw a Huawei billboard for an Android phone in the Netherlands. The competition is ehating up (again).

Winter

Tomi,

You are still working on the post. But the totals of the first two tables do not match. You can delete this comment.

foo

The rumors are getting louder:

=== Nokia to launch Windows RT tablet in September, alleged pictures leak ===

http://www.theverge.com/2013/8/16/4627220/nokia-windows-rt-tablet-pictures-leak-rumor

Can it be true? Can Stephen Elop be *that* crazy?

He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?

Looks like a perfect ending, the final chapter in the Elop Effect book.

Winter

@foo
"He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?"

So the tablets are now a loss of Nokia instead? Improves the books of MS.

foo

@Baron95
> A Windows Phone Maker (Nokia) passed a previously Android market leader (HTC) in volume and market share!!!!

That is surprising indeed.

But don't forget that 3 years ago Nokia was *much* bigger than HTC. So it went from "much bigger" to "slightly bigger, fighting for the scraps of the market".

> Windows Phone firmly established as 3rd ecosystem with 3.7% market share

I wouldn't say "firmly established" considering that 3.7% is closer to zero than to the second player.


> Nokia, instead of falling off the top 10 list, as predicted here by Tomi and many others, is - wait - moving up the list.

The big question is: can Nokia survive much longer with a lunatic CEO and less than 3% of market share?

BK

It's fun to see HTC so close to Nokia at the bottom. It was always their dream to become Nokia biggest rival. I don't think though they meant it such way :D

BK

@ He saw that Microsoft lost almost $1 BILLION trying to sell tablets, why would he try to do that?

They also saw other vendors (Acer, Asus) cancelling their RT support and lineup. So he might feel this has to be great chance to demonstrate his elopness once more :D

Darwinphish

Tomi:

Can you shed a little light on how you calculate installed base? I am not doubting your numbers, just wondering how you arrive at them.

Thanks.

AndThisWillBeToo

HTC missing from list of WP manufacturers. Huawei too. Both listed by e.g. IDC. Please update.

Bjorn

Here's interesting detail:
according to Canalys Lenovo sold 95% of its phones in China.
If Lenovo would lose its domestic sales, it would sell 570 000 phones and drop out of the list to somewhere in the rounding errors.
If Nokia would lose its domestic (Finland) sales, it would stay exactly where it is in the list.
It's interesting that we get to see what is effectively a local player in list of Global sales.

Winter

@Bjorn
"It's interesting that we get to see what is effectively a local player in list of Global sales."

Funny. China takes care of 37% of the global Smartphone market. Losing that market is "painful". Finland will not register on a global scale.

Btw, Apple got around 45% of its Q2 sales in the USA.

Baron95

Nothing to see here folks. Pretty much as I called it in 2011. Android and IOS pretty much cornered the market with WIndows Phone as a distant, but firmly established 3rd ecosystem by mid-2013.

All non-US OS/Ecosystems dead or dying and falling off the list, with Blackberry still hanging by the one remaining fingernail.

Q3 will see Windows phone ship over 10M devices for the first time ever. And Q4 will see Windows Phone ship twice as many devices as the next nearest competitor (Blackberry), completing the consolidation. We may see Windows Phone hit 5% by year end, but most likely only in Q1/2014.

Then the stories for the next 4 quarters will be:
1 - Can Samsung hang on to its share and profit margin as Android becomes commodity?
2 - Can Apple finally expand into China Mobile, and other remaining carriers and grab a bit more of the mid-market?
3 - Will carriers continue to invest in the 3rd ecosystem (Windows Phone) as a bargaining chip or surrender to Apple and Google/Samsung?

Baron95

Apple Sept 10 most likely announcement:

1 - iPhone 5S (better camera/processor/etc) starting at $650/$200 (unlocked/2yr-contract in the US)
2 - iPhone 5 drops to $500/$100
3 - iPhone 5C (colors/plastic) launches at $400/free - replacing the iPhone 4/4S

All on iOS7, all touch only, all with 4"screens.

That should be enough to get Apple a couple of % points in Q4, and a couple more if it signs China Mobile.

No iPhone with keyboard, no iphone nano (small screen), none of that non-sense.

Tester

@Baron95:

>> all with 4"screens.

And here it will get interesting. Essentially this means there's very little incentive to upgrade from an iPhone 5. CPU speed is mostly a geek-only factor if the older device is still considered fast enough.

It means that Apple still has nothing to compete with in the growing large screen market which is completely owned by Android right now.

foo

@Baron95 "3 - Will carriers continue to invest in the 3rd ecosystem (Windows Phone) as a bargaining chip or surrender to Apple and Google/Samsung?"

Why should they?

They can use Apple against Google, and Google against Apple. No need for a third one, specially one backed by Microsoft.

By the way, when it comes to the third ecosystem, my questions for the next quarters are:

1) Will Firefox OS become successful?

2) Will it steal market share from Windows Phone?

Firefox OS is cheap, is supported by carriers and manufacturers. It is a much better protection against Google/Apple/Microsoft, since it promotes the use of open standards. Apps developed using HTML5 and Javascript should run with little or no modification on all platforms.

So... I think it has potential, but we need to wait and see.

Tester

@foo:

>> Apps developed using HTML5 and Javascript should run with little or no modification on all platforms.

You know, the same has been said about Java Mobile - but reality was quite different. Wanna bet that the same will happen here? All you need is some manufacturer who 'supports the standard better than all the other ones' and chaos will ensue.

'Write once, run everywhere' has been proven an utter failure in the past and a lot needs to happen for that to change. Besides, most users want native apps not offline websites.

Baron95

@Tester Essentially this means there's very little incentive to upgrade from an iPhone 5. "

LOL - Apple will take care of that. A better camera alone is reason enough by many. There will be a new "bronze color". There will be a better battery. A thinner/lighter/brighter screen. And probably a few gimmicky things like maybe fingerprint reader, etc.

As to larger screens, that is what the iPhone 6 will bring. Apple has time to slowly manage device migration. They don't need to rush and introduce all the features at once. They are on a steady feature/upgrade release cycle.

@Foo - Firefox? What is that? Another future OS with no apps that the bloodbath losers (DoCoMo, et al) are pushing? Seriously? What is the benefit to the user vs a cheap Android phone? Good luck with that.

Bjorn

@Winter

You got my point quite well. Chinese market is huge. Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE, Coolpad all sell majority of their ~10M sales in China. Definitely with gentle push from Chinese government. Imagine BlackBerry making some agreement in China that would hand them sales of Coolpad? BlackBerry would grow their global sales 150% overnight by just getting a foothold in one country.
When one country has such a big footprint on statistic, I start to thirst for "rest of world" numbers.

Tester

@Baron95:

Yes, the iSlaves may patiently wait for the iPhone 6, but what about the more casual users? Also don't forget non-US markets that have completely different dynamics with far less Apple dominance, both in people's minds and in the press.

Apple is playing a dangerous game here. They already missed one chance to keep the lead last year and it looks like they'll miss another chance this year. No, it won't irreparably harm their market situation but it certainly won't help. These kinds of screw-ups will be felt, even by a company like Apple.

The thing is, Apple is pricing the iPhone at the very top end of the market but when I look into spec sheets and similar stuff these days, it is merely an excellent mid-range phone, albeit heavily overpriced. I get similar specs on Android for a bit more than half the price Apple is asking for. Say what you want, but Apple really needs more options so that all the people willing to spend good money on their next phones may consider them. Right now they are completely losing the large screen crowd and it looks like they will be losing them for another year - which may well mean forever.


About Firefox: On principle I agree - and as a software developer I thoroughly hope that the system ends up a stillborn failure. This is something nobody needs except the marketing people trying to shove something new down people's throats. But we never know how the market will react. It has one thing going for it: There's no 'evil' name like Microsoft or Google attached to it which might attract a certain group of malcontents but beyond that I really see no market for it, if some Android manufacturer manages to keep prices as low as FF OS devices.

boran59

Only those who were from Microsoft/Elop will talk about ecosystem war. Why would a carrier use Windows to threaten/negotiate Google/Apple. The carrier will use another handset maker to threaten/negotiate with. The carrier will use Oppo/Lenovo to negotiate with Samsung/HTC/Sony. The carrier will use HTC to negotiate with Samsung. What a fail analogy made by Microsoftian!!!

@Bjorn

Look it from different angle. Lenovo brand/distribution channel is worldwide, if Lenovo use it's power to start spreading to more region, it would become a major player that might topple Apple/Samsung easily.

@Tester

The problem with Java is it's too complicated for developer to give a good run anywhere because the standard/experience across device is bad (Bad at scalability). The web browser on top of Linux OS (FireFox OS) would give a better experience since HTML is better at scalability. And HTML standard also open and not governed by 1 company

>Apple is playing a dangerous game here....

I think Apple is trapped with post-Jobs syndrome. They still feel they were the king of the world, and all carrier will kneel before them because they own the holly grail of phone. Google/Microsoft/Blackberry share a 10% revenue if the user buy an apps through carrier billing/purchase. Apple don't want to share revenue/power/flexibility to carrier. I believe more and more carrier will kick Apple ass for being too greedy and too stuck up, and I'm really looking forward for apple to fall even more deeply.

>About Firefox

If Google can capture 20% desktop market in USA with Chromebook, why Firefox couldn't get a good percentage of user with FireFox OS? I think for FF to success, it need to be priced around US$40 - US$ 100.

Tester

>> If Google can capture 20% desktop market in USA with Chromebook, why Firefox couldn't get a good percentage of user with FireFox OS? I think for FF to success, it need to be priced around US$40 - US$ 100.

USD 100 would already be too much. Also, don't forget that the price will be almost 100% hardware components.

So, if someone could produce an USD 40 FF device, what would keep others from doing an Android device for the same price. That's the obstacle FF is really facing. There's absolutely no reason why someone could produce a 'real' smartphone for the same cost. And say what you want: When price is factored out, there is no chance FF can hold up against Android.

As for Chromebook getting 20% of the US desktop market, where did you get this fantasy number? I don't see that happen - ever! You probably missed the fine print in the news. They got 20% of the sub-$300 laptop market - which isn't really that surprising because at that price it's close to impossible to manufacture a fully featured computer running Windows (i.e. they have no significant competition in that sector - and still manage only 20-25%.) But for mobile phones that's not the case. On specs that run FF OS you can also easily install Android so there's no real price advantage.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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