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« News from the Smartphone Front: Blackberry Results, other news | Main | Nokia Q2 Analysis - This is Textbook Comprehensively Failed Strategy in Numbers »

July 18, 2013



@Baron99 :

The fact Russian operators quit Apple won't have much consequence : at $900 for a 16Gb IP5, they didn't sell many anyway. There are iPhones in Russia, most from grey market + some vendors selling exclusive (gold-plated, leather, wood, etc.)

Now, I'm curious to see how fore coming OSs (Ubuntu, Firefox, Tizen, Sailfish) will affect the market.


@jj "WP third ecosystem? No way! After NSA scandal no one outside USA wants another closed US based OS. World needs open system as third ecosystem, not even Android is open enough."

That's absolutely true!

Tomi always said that carriers hate Skype.

Now governments and companies around the world also distrust Skype because of the information that NSA could wiretap foreign calls.

Another blow against Windows Phone.


"Now governments and companies around the world also distrust Skype"

...which still runs on all platforms (PC and Mobile) and is in no way tied to WP success as Microsoft has kept it as separate business entity. If governments and companies want to avoid Skype, having Androids, BB10s and iPhones does not solve anything.


To state that WP has any advantage for Nokia is just funny.

WP is an OS for people who do not care about the OS' features or App availability.

If you want Apps, you need to use iOS or Android.

If you care about such stuff like open Bootloaders, being admin, having a real file system with a real file browser etc., you need Android.

What does WP have so that people would want to own it? Tiles? But you can also have tiles on Android...

Nokia tries to get an advantage by providing HW features likcamera technology, and this also is the only thing they can do.

A Samsung Galaxy S4 looks different from a HTC Android device (Touchwiz vs. Sense), while HTC and Nokia WP8-phones can only be distinguished by the logo.



Yes, Edward Snowden, PRISM and whole SNA scandal is not a small thing. People and goverments are real pissed off now in Europe. A new cold war may be closer than one thinks...
How about China? Do they let US companies (Google, Apple, Microsoft) rule SW development and control mobile scene for next decades? Don't thing so. All cards are not on the table yet.



>> @Tester: Nokia's losses are decreasing, not increasing. Remains to be seen how much Lumia 925 & 1020 will change ASP upwards.

Losses are losses. Nokia still doesn't make any profit from selling smartphones.

How should that change with new devices that are merely re-iterations of their already relased top device with slightly different specs? And don't overrate the camera. The average consumer doesn't need that.

What Nokia really could use is something that can compete with the Galaxy 4, i.e. quad/octa core and full HD screen. But look: They can't due to the restrictions in their OS. They are essentially shut out from the top end of the market.



The PRISM and similar other projects have interesting consequences. I know Russian government is developing a Linux-based home-brewed OS, as no trust is possible with commercial OSs (nothing new here).

How many other government/public services will turn their back to MS-Windows, and what will be the consequences on Microsoft in the middle term ?

That also means new mobile OSes have real chance to challenge the big ones.


It is rather ironic that Chinese OEMs (Huawei, ZTE, Yulong) are using Android as PRISM-wise Google is just as guilty as M$ and Apple. Chinese government should have pushed them to use Symbian (open source) or MeeGo (open source) instead. They may switch to Sailfish, though. Tizen is too risky due to Intel (US) cooperation and South Korean (close US ally) influence.


Why is Android dangerous? The OS itself is open source and the Google stuff is not installed on Chinese phones. So, no risk from hidden spyware - in the open source stuff it'd be easy to find by skilled programmers anyway.

The danger with PRISM lies elsewhere, namely web based services. Alternative OSs won't help with that at all.

James Q

Contrary to the obvious paid shills from Microsoft stalking this site's comment section, the plain fact is that Windows Phone is going nowhere. In fact, without the cash reserves (life support) of Microsoft this 'strategic partnership' would have gone kaput long ago.

And please do not say that Microsoft is playing 'the long game', or future products from Microsoft is going to get better. Ballmer's recent reorg announcement indicates that he is still as clueless as ever. He's still surrounded by the same bunch of nincompoops (e.g. Julie Larson-Green, Kevin Turner), and he (Steve Ballmer) hasn't yet removed the biggest problem - himself - from the job of CEO for Microsoft.

It's going to get worse. Too bad Nokia had to be dragged down to hell in this mess.


as you can see even the author has found no more words to bash Nokia, posted the results and twisted the facts. The real fact is Nokia is selling more W phones quarter after quarter, another fact is Microsoft needs Nokia 85%+ more than when the deal was signed when Nokia market share was zip.

Nokia is Windows phone, with little more time either Nokia breaks even and makes a profit or is bought at a PREMIUM by Microsoft and I mean a PREMIUM not a couple of bucks from today's price in the mean time the last thing a Nokia shareholder needs to worry about is either the company running out of options and/or money.


If so many people are going through the trouble writing a comment to tell us we should not read Tomi, he mist have made a good point.


I can't stand the shills' excuse, "Nokia went with WP because they needed a third ecosystem" -- well damnit, they OWNED the third ecosystem: MeeGo was a wiser choice in every way. This is what angers people, they killed a likely winner to embrace an also-ran.


@Fernando: Exactly !
Many of us Nokia shareholders bought shares when Nokia was €2 (or even €1.5). We are already winning nicely.

Now, like you said, 3 options:
A) Nokia gets phone business back to profit (very close already) --> share price jumps
B) Microsoft buys Nokia's phone business at a premium of 3x, leaving profitable nsn --> share price jumps
or C) A combination of A & B (Nokia phone business returns to profitability, THEN Microsoft buys it at a premium price, leaving profitable nsn) --> Jackpot !

Very nice time to be a Nokia shareholder :-)


Nice try. Tomi believes Nokia was a giant going down, but still a giant that could get up again. But Elop put Nokia on crack, and now all is lost.

The trolls accuse Tomi of not admittin Nokia was a terminal alcaholic (Symbian). And therefore Elop did the right thing to force Nokia to switch to crack. (WP)


Business 101
Your products are divided into 4 by high/low profit and high/low increase in sales (or market share)
The goal is to develop a cash cow (high profit, but low sales increase) this pays for everything else.

Each product (area) goes through several of four stages:
problem-child, rising-star, cash-cow, pet-project.

Problem-child requires development money and resources, has low profit and low sales.

Rising-star rapid increase in sales with good profit. Your problem-child has become a hit.

Cash-cow: mature product high market share, flat increase in sales and good profit.

Pet-project: falling market share, low profit. Should be killed off, but kept for sentimental reasons.

Some projects fail and turn from problem-child to pet-project.

Like many companies Nokia was in two parts, although most companies have separate brands for each market segment (Fiat and Maserati). Nokia has plain phones, feature phones and smart phones. It should be noted, feature phones are just low-cost smart phones, otherwise you have the expense of two development areas. The old Nokia had the 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, N and E ranges.

So Elop perceived Nokia's cash-cow as end-of-life, and many agree (unless Symbian and the UI slapped on it, reinvented itself) it was dying. All the problem-children (Qt based MeeGo and feature-phone) were incomprehensible to Elop and he traded them in with Microsoft for marketing money. Elop doesn't understand consumer devices, especially mobile phones, the emotional relationship of purchasing something for yourself. He doesn't see how you could make money from open-source. USA centric marketing seems dumb to Europeans (from a UK POV): USA TV shows present US people as stupid (any sit-comm) or evil (Dallas), even CSI presents smart experts and stupid general-public. (I'm not saying UK TV shows are much different.)

IMHO, Windows Phone went straight from problem-child to pet-project, the phone market has more user choice than MS is accustomed to.


There's lots of going over arguments that are nearly three years old now. But the numbers from Nokia's report and weird, and to me don't look that good.

1. Despite new carrier partners and lots of ad spend, WP and Lumia have ZERO traction in the US and minimal EU success. This basically undercuts one key premise for the MS/Nokia alliance. It also leaves a strategic mis-alignment: MS wants in to the iPad space, so it NEEDS WP to be successful in the US and EU5, but if Nokia can move a few more low-end Lumias in the emerging world, it might be able to recover R&D costs.

2. On the other hand, the ASP for Lumias is tanking and volumes are missing estimates.

3. HERE loses 30M euro every month. Some of this is just writing down the bloated NAVTEQ purchase price, but some of the revenue is "internal". It's not clear that even if it was given away that it wouldn't be a money pit.


Another thing. You heard this here first: WP is the new Symbian. It combines the following features:

1. Weird UI people don't like

2. Uncompetitive hardware, except for weird cameras

3. Low single-digit "other" platform in North America

4. Some people buy it in Europe for sentimental reasons, and then get upset over low quality and lack of access to apps their friends have.

5. Has some traction as a kind of cheap "high-end" position in emerging markets.


Here the central comment that nails it down and answers all the questions our new commentors have written by our very own Tester:

> Losses are losses. Nokia still doesn't make any profit from selling smartphones.

Point. No debat needed, this are the facts. Its so since Elop's burning started and it still applies years later quarter after quarter, no exception.

Let me repeat the central shareholder-question: "Are you aware that results are what matter?"

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