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« Nokia Q2 Topline Numbers | Main | Apple Q2 Results. Signs now DO indicate that we have passed 'Peak iPhone' »

July 21, 2013

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Comments

Ecc

Great story!

What was Nokia's market share of phones with capacitive displays in 2010?

eduardo

"The moment he is fired, any sane new CEO will announce a shift to Android or some other Linux-based OS (Sailfish, MeeGo, etc)."

My guess is that Nokia has a contract with Microsoft that prevents them from doing that.

Eurofan

Thank you Tomi for continuing to cover the tragic Nokia story. Three things:

1) Thanks for highlighting that Microsoft had a 5% market share in smartphones in 2011 and now has a 4% market share despite Elop turning Nokia upside down.

2) Is Nokia profitable at any level of employee-count with Windows Phone? Are Windows Phones simply a loosing proposition as they appear to be in the United States and Western Europe.

3) Isn't Elop simply shipping more Lumia's every quarter to more markets in order to provide the appearance of growth quarter to quarter. The true marker of growth is sales per market per quarter and in the United States that statistic is flat or negative.

Thanks again, Tomi. Nokia is the greatest bad gamble in management history, no Plan B, etc.

c.y.c.n.u.s

Tomi,

This is one of your best article!! I think Nokia share owner would be easier to take your advice if you write with this tone earlier.

I think someone need to make this ELOP into big screen soon

c.y.c.n.u.s

Does any other company would like to have a relationship with Microsoft if this Nokia-Microsoft were taught as case study

Bradley

Elop is an idiot and that will not change. He doesn't want to choose Android because he's afraid of the competition aka Samsung. He prefers to ride the real burning platform to the ground. MeeGo is by far the most intuitive OS. That swipe feature was unparalleled at the time. It was refreshing and new. Everybody loved and praised it, but Elop was fixated with Microsoft.

Android fans are begging for Nokia to make a Google flavored device. But he turns a blind eye to it. Just imagine a 41MP beast like the Lumia 1020 running Android Jellybean. Samsung would be finished, and will make it harder for HTC to generate the profits they so desperately need right now. The Galaxy Zoom is a joke, the 808 takes better photos and records better videos than it, and its 2 years older. The 808 could have been a great success to, if only Mr Elop in his infinite wisdom had made available worldwide.

I always said Elop was a trojan horse sent from Microsoft to infect Nokia, and the infection has taken over

geektech

Cancer end a person if not treated at the right time;
does Nokia still can be saved? if operated now and remove the cancer from it?

I think they could diversify and let customers choose what OS better suited for their needs.

Unfortunately i don't see that happenning soon.

I think Jolla will outsell Nokia just in the first quater they get into the market.

Robert Atkins

N8 was good phone, N9 and N900 could have sold many millions in global market as Nokia wound Symbian down. Imagine a Nokia 41 mp camera on a N1020? Nokia would still have control over OS and manufacturing had Elop stayed the course and released their best phones to the adoring public.
Having abandoned their own ecosystem, OS software, and forced to compromise hardware to run Windows phone, they were doomed. And just putting someone else's OS and software(Android) on a reboot of Nokia would be just as disastrous.
Maybe they could still buy Jolla and use familiar system on new Nokia, but not as long as His Generalship Elop is still around.
What a trainwreck. Fascinating to watch.

sve

Even if Nokia was starting today with a completely blank slate I still don't know which of Android or WP is the best choice.

Samsung is completely dominant as an Android manufacturer, and any innovation Nokia were to make would be quickly copied and bettered. That said, Google stewardship on the OS would be great assurance as to staying at the forefront of mobile apps and pushing the boundaries of new features and services.

Choosing MSFT would give you the main player status and a benign competitive field in WP hardware. But MSFT has always been a laggard and a bumbler in fielding important new categories of software. It also is shameless at pursuing its personal agenda often at the expense of its partners.

What Nokia correctly saw is that the world of phones was moving to computer ecosystems and Nokia was not strong enough to field a competitive offering on its own. It needed to join another one. I suspect as the battle evolves from smartphones to combined devices+phones+tablets+consoles+computers that the role of a pure handset maker will fade in importance. The impression I get is that we are arguing the role of buggy whip makers at the end of their era. For Nokia and the others, it just won't matter in a few short years.

c.y.c.n.u.s

@Bradley

I agree with you that Elop is a trojan horse. Thus he can't be a coward that were afraid to compete in Android ecosystem. Saying that Android ecosystem is too crowded is just a way to justify his reason.

@geektech

I also wish Jolla the best. But I don't think Jolla will make great impact (on nokia) in their 1st quarter. Maybe they need 3-4 quarter.

@LeeBase

I don't agree with you regarding RIM. RIM and Nokia were two different beast with two different identity. RIM used to be a feature phone maker with 4 main feature, SECURITY, PUSH EMAIL & BBM, QWERTY thumbboard. Real CrackBerry will claim they need nothing else than that 4, and will not go away to Android or Apple. The BB user that flee to other platform is not a real CrackBerry. The real CrackBerry doesn't even bother that BB phone need a constant rebooting.

On the other hand, Nokia is a cutting edge company. They dare to try everything. Witness the strange Nokia 3650/3660 (my first SMARTPHONE). The lipstick Nokia 7380/7280, Nokia 3250 with a twisting based, Nokia N90 with optical zoom. and to quote Tomi, the first in MP3, clock in the phone... This conclude that Nokia/Symbian user characteristic is different from BB. The main reason nokian stay with nokia was because IT HAD THE BEST TECHNOLOGY with GOOD QUALITY.

If you had Nokia N9, you'll know that Nokia has a chance to stay on top. N9 were very fluid, and C++/QT made developer easier to develop for N9 (compared to original Symbian AVKON language). Nokia has the user, has the tools. and the user were excited about it. Why? Because the user BELIEVE nokia as the leader can make a GREAT product. Just as iphone user believe the next iphone will be great.

This compared to real BB user, the CrackBerry, that were not a real smartphone user, that were not fleeing to Android/iOS/Symbian/WP because they think they doesn't need apps. Maybe because they real BB user is A SERIOUS NO FUN user? Or maybe because the real BB user has another phone for fun, and were not allowed to have fun on their BB?.... Anyway BB10 is a GREAT platform, that the CrackBerry (by my definition) don't care, and the non-CrackBerry that already flee doesn't think it's good enough to compete with iOS and Android.

It's two different attitude.....
BB want to re-invent their company to be Apple-ish. They use Alicia Keys to show that they were fun.
But Nokia user (in the past) think Nokia is a leading company in phone technology.

This is also a reason why there's a lot of nokia user think they will change from Samsung, Sony, HTC, LG, whatever to Nokia if Nokia have Android phone. But ex-BB user don't think they will change to BB if BB have Android phone.

c.y.c.n.u.s

@sve

When you were comparing android/Google with WP/Microsoft don't forget that Microsoft were a company that doing their business like a two headed snake. Witness the 'WinModem' and 'WinPrinter'. A Modem and Printer that can only be run on Windows because Microsoft OWN part of the technology. The software part is belong to Microsoft and can't be ported to other OS. This is what essentially will happened to Nokia. Everything in WP that touch the OS will be owned/co-owned by/with microsoft.

This is also a reason why Android thrive and WP going down. Steven Elop is a person with a great tongue twisting ability and easily fool the one that can't see through him.

Birdy

I miss te analysis of Q2. And I miss your assumptions for the next quarter(s).
What was the reasons for the 21% more Lumias? Might the growth continue?
Why and how badly did the handsets go down? Will the new Asha be able to stop that?
After buying NSN, very little cash is left. So there has to be a big move soon. What possible ones are there?

CN

@Birdy

No, it's not 21% more Lumias.

Lumia volumes went up by 32%. Smartphones up only 21% since in Q1, 500k Symbians were shipped, in Q2 practically none. Lumias up from 5.6M to 7.4M.

msft

Nokia as mobile phone company will die soon, mobile phone goes to msft, nsn stays as nokia and here will become independent and also be sold later on.

James

Look at that paid Microsoft shill on here again. As if right on cue.

No need to talk crap about a Nokia/Windows turnaround. It won't happen.

Read this: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323309404578613350124217598.html

and look at the two in-article graphics:

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MK-CE865_NOKIA_G_20130718175420.jpg
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/EM-AW469_NOKIA_NS_20130718173608.jpg

You can continue to shill... or you can wake up to reality.

That is all.

Jozo

@LeeBase: the hypothesis of not being able to execute on MeeGo strategy could have merit. However, point is that WP migration was terribly bungled. Why to announce it so prematurely? Why start with WP 7.5, with no upgrade path, burning most loyal customers? Why badmouth Symbian, own cow cash before transition is fully complete?

przemoli

@sve

Nokia do some very good stuff in WinP world (in hardware/design terms)

Yes Samsung did not copied it.


Its not so easy to "copy" Nokia advantage in cameras. Nor is it easy to "copy" nokia in maps/services (as shown by Apple).

Bottom line: You do not know what are you talking engineering/development time wise, or you do not know about strenghts of Nokia.

CN

@James

I guess you refer to me with your message. First of all, wrong, I'm paid only by my company that has not a lot to do with Microsoft. NSN is one of my customers, that's the closest we get to your false assumption. Unless using Windows in my laptop makes me "a paid shill".

I read the article. Nothing new, if you ask me.

If you think I suggest there will be a turnaround, you are again wrong. I'm not forecasting anything. I feel it is not very smart since anything can happen with this Nokia/WP/MS story.

Fixing some mistakes and challenging bad forecasts here should not, in my opinion, be taken as having an opinion on something.

daz

Matt: why does 920 need mentioning? I don't see the point. Besides it's not their most successful wp8 device, that is the lousy 520, the worst and cheapest wp8 is the most succesful, that is, most sold.

Matt

Daz: "lousy 520, the worst"

My mum owns one of these, can you explain your critical judgement of the phone?

paul

Just a quick technical question..Can any of the current Lumia range run Android with a little work by the software guys? Do you think there is some sort of black ops team within Nokia that have Android running on a 920 for example just in case? How much work would be required to port Android to Lumia devices? Any modders done it yet?

AndThisWillBeToo

@tomi
I love it how you say you're doing "the full analysis of Nokia numbers and Q2 Results" and spend a bit over half the words explaining Nokia past. Double by love on the fact you repeat the same stories you've been repeating over two years now.
But hey, big hand for mentioning RIM/BlackBerry as second largest rival of Nokia, probably first time since February 2011. Where were they now? 10th? 11th? Did Elop put them to disasterous WP path with his burning platform too?

Bob,Boulder,Colorado

some folks here are supporting NOkia's decision to support only Windows phone. That is not the point, the point is why can't they make both ? almost every OEM is making both android phone and Windows phone and the few that make only android phones is because of business reasons, not some false reasons(it almost sounds like a faith based decision) as trotted out by Elop.
In any case, if Windows phone does succeed, what is to stop Samsung from coming in and taking over Windows phone, Samsung is a manufacturing powerhouse. Nokia would have faced competition from Samsung sooner or later, whether android or windows phone. Running away from war is a stupid reason to embrace a then failing and now failed 3rd platform.
And people look at HTC as an example of what happens to android OEMs. what they forget is HTC also manufactures windows phone. And people forget how Sony and LG have somewhat improved their performance by using android.

Mark Levine

I've heard that getting stuck doing windows phone 8 development was seen as some sort of punishment, due to having to reinstall the whole workstation PC (forced windows 8) along with the strange visual studio 2012, and all the bizarre new Metro APIs that aren't compatible with anything else.

c.y.c.n.u.s

@Bob, Boulder, Colorado

GOOD COMMENT!!!!
Yes, that's right!!!
This is Elop sin. Why he has to do the burning platform and not do both.

My answer is Because ELOP IS SMART!!! Elop know that:
1. If he didn't kill symbian, there will be only a few OS guy that will move from symbian to WP. and the WP strategy will fail.
2. If he didn't kill symbian, and symbian win, His best buddy the baldy balmer won't have the glory.

So, I only find reason that Elop do this because he were a trojan horse. I hope someone that PRO WP in this blog will point out there were another logical explanation for this action

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