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« Huawei CEO Says Could be Interested in Acquiring Nokia but that Windows Phone is 'Weak' | Main | News from the Smartphone Front: Blackberry Results, other news »

June 25, 2013

Comments

Hansu

@ Brian Stephens spot on but then again the as I put it earlier the sales collapse would have happened anyway even with Meego onboard and Meego shared the same app situation that was even worse WP7 had around 70000 apps to Meego's 20000 and then there would have been same problem to lure app developers to platform that didn't have the market share and in order to have the market share it needed the apps. As for Meltemi it was way over budget and almost 1,5 years late when it was finally killed off so even if they had finished Meltemi sometime in the fall of 2012 it still would have taken to q4 12 or q1 13 to get the Meltemi devices out and they are low cost phones so it would have taken considerable time to get the R&D money back if Meltemi would have been system that it was promised to be app launch in 1sec and all that. But the main problem with WP is skype and the unfortunate carrier boycott, but things are improving a bit like Verizon and T-mobile selling Lumias in the US and other big Operators like Vodafone and O2 etc. It will be intresting to see what the 8.1 update will bring to WP in terms of hardware support and OS features

vladkr

Tomi,

You forget one parameter which is interesting as well : Elop's pedigree.

You've certainly heard of some popular project named... Youtube.

This Youtube project, and some others as well make quite a big use of the FLV format, which was development was made by... Macromedia...

I think you guess where I'm leading : Stephen Elop was at the head of Macromedia just before selling it to Adobe. Nowadays, almost no one remembers about Macromedia, but everybody knows Adobe. Colossal revenues generated by Flash format use go to Adobe now.

So how can one think Elop wasn't a risk ?

He's the guy who screwed a successful fast-food brand, the guy who sold us Office 2007-2010 (and the related headaches to IT workers), the guy who ruined Macromedia, and who still is wealthy after all that.

vladkr

@Jusu :

A drama about Nokia already exists :

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-TIZf1OymQBE/T7HIpjPG8pI/AAAAAAAAABU/dWURk81KpH0/w487-h721-no/Dumb_and_Dumber_Nokia.jpg

Spawn

@zlutot

> That can either be true or not I can not judge

http://m.intomobile.com/2011/06/22/nokia-engineer-calls-out-stephen-elop-killing-meego-says-he-has-no-idea-hes-talking/

"Stephen Elop, Nokia’s CEO, that one of MeeGo’s biggest problems going forward was the small amount of devices currently in the pipeline. Felipe says that’s absolute nonsense, that no one he knows believes what Stephen Elop has to say about the matter, and that they could throw MeeGo on as many number of devices as they want to since all the complicated work required to get MeeGo to run on a Texas Instruments OMAP processor had to be done just once. If Nokia wanted to make MeeGo devices that run on other chips then yes, more effort would be required, but there’s absolutly no reason Nokia can’t just build different devices using the current software/hardware combination that currently makes up the N9. In fact, that’s how Nokia has made most of their devices up till now"

... Lumia still only run on snapdragon fyi.

Also fyi MeeGo did run not only on the N9/N950. There where devices including tablets by other companies flyi around all time. Some made it to market like the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeTab

@Hansu

> Meego shared the same app situation that was even worse WP7

Transition-strategy. It had formed one ecosystem with Symbian using Qt.

> As for Meltemi it was way over budget and almost 1,5 years late when it was finally killed of

Meltimi was started one year before it got killed. There where no external contractors or resources or partners or... budget could not unexpected explode. It was killed when it was ready, the work done.

vladkr

Tomi,

When you'll write Nokia's obituary (it should be sooner than I expected, which will make me loose for the "predict Elop's kick-out date" contest), don't forget to mention his social achievements:

- That Elop lied, saying Salo factory won't close (Feb 13th 2012)
http://yle.fi/uutiset/elop_salo_remains_important_to_nokia/5297777

- How he humiliated Romanian workers :
1 He Ratnered products made in the Cluj factory, making them unsaleable, leading to factory's closure.

2 He closed factory, kicking out all its workers

3 He offered the Ratnered, unsaleable (due to his only action) to fired workers as a compensation.

- The trick Nokia used to not pay compensations to most fired people in Finland - sale of Business Units (ie Symbian) to partners = new work-contracts = seniority reset to zero = no need to pay compensations if fired before one year... what actually happened.

+ if you can find any explanation why Nokia needed to open a new factory while all the others are idling.

vladkr

Could have the Huawei story been a trick/fake to scare Microsoft and force them to move (finalize the acquisition) ?

ejvictor

@Hansu

> Meego shared the same app situation that was even worse WP7

WRONG, wrong, wrong......at release the N9 could have deployed the Alien Dalvik engine and run android apps, plus QT apps. Not allowing this to happen was another 'present' to Microsoft.

Hansu

@ Spawn it wasn't Elop who said it was Kai Öistämö who said it in a Businesweek article how things really went when Elop took over and how things were in 2011. As for the Meego app situation Symbian's Ovi store had 50000 apps in 2011 iOS had almost half a million yet Symbian was outselling the iPhone now why is that? And Meego tablet's were launched the why didn't they succed since Meego is a great OS no question and as for Snapdragon on Lumia almost everything else runs on Qualcomm chipsets Samsung, LG, HTC etc
http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/57372-stephen-elops-nokia-adventure

Jusu

@vladkr
You bet! If Windows Phone looses the only manufacturer that is fully committed to WP, how much would it sell? Nothing.

ejvictor

@Hansu Microsoft astroturfers don't last long here. Stop asking bullshit rhetorical questions, deal it NO ONE WANTS TO BUY A WINDOWS PHONE.

Hansu

@ ejvictor 5,9 million did last quarter alone buy a Nokia WP

ejvictor

@Hansu, focus. If you don't stay on topic you risk deletion. You seem to have little past history with Nokia. Nokia use to sell 6 mm of ONE model in a quarter. Clearly Windows Phone was an epic fail for Nokia, employees, and Nokia consumers who were used to innovation and diversity.

keithzg

I'm sick of the repeated nonsense of "oh, there was no way many MeeGo devices could've been produced!" That's just something Elop has claimed, and we have no reason to really believe that, as he (or any other Nokia executives) have never really backed it up.

In fact, Felipe Contreras---a Nokia software engineer working on *device adaptation*, ie. putting OSes on multiple devices, ie. pretty much the most relevant person you could possibly ask on the question of how many MeeGo/Harmattan devices they could pump out---publicly disputed Elop's claims.

http://felipec.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/my-disagreement-with-elop-on-meego/

Everyone at all interested should read the whole post (if you haven't already, as people who follow the goings-on around Nokia!) but here's some relevant passages:

"Some time ago I received a private email directly from Elop (just me, nobody else in CC, I am not going to go into details as to why), in which he explained that the biggest problem was the small amount of MeeGo devices in the years immediately ahead.

This is simply not true.

...As I explained Elop, if we wanted to ship 10 devices with OMAP 3 (the same platform of the Nokia N9) today, there is absolutely no problem from the software point of view: all the UI software remains the same, and the hardware adaptation would probably require few modifications, if any.

The problem is when porting to an entirely new hardware platform, say Snapdragon. Suppose only 3 devices are planned on the “years immediately ahead”, well, then it makes sense to have 3 different hardware platforms, and each one of those requires work from the hardware adaptation team, not from the upper layers, though. However, that’s not a technical limitation, it could very well be 30 devices instead of 3, it’s basically the same amount of work for us. IOW; what matters is the hardware platform, not the number of different devices.

Note: all these are merely examples, not actual plans

Funnily enough, Windows Phone only supports one hardware platform: Snapdragon (and in fact only certain chips). So MeeGo already has an advantage over Windows Phone; you could ship more devices on more hardware platforms. All we need is the word.

Not to mention the fact that most of the hardware adaptation is already done by hardware vendors. They do it because it’s the easiest way to demo their hardware (it’s Linux). I tried to explain that on an earlier post where I show many examples of people porting MeeGo to a plethora of devices (it’s easy and fun)..."

N9

Burning platform memo. The press gave Elop a lot of praise for this memo and his creative writing - presumably because of the picture of the "burning platform". It does not seem to be well known that this is a common term used in the literature about organizational change. If you read upon it, one realizes that this memo is not the result of some critical analysis about the specific situation of Nokia at that time but simply a piece of propaganda to achieve a desired effect (the switch to WP), following some well-known management stragegy. The "Oh shit" moment story falls in the same category.

zlutor

@Hansu: "I mean 3 new Meego Devices before 2014 only Apple can do that and survive" - wider portfolio is more probable better but what those three Meego devices would have been?

Because if they would be desired ones - like, in fact, the N9 even though it has its weaknesses, too - then those three devices would keep the boat afloat because people would like to have one, thus they would make Nokia brand as such desirable. Direct consequences in feature phone segments are obvious...

Exactly what happens with Samsung nowadays...

An when Meltemi devices - and we see new Ashas, too - would provide the same or similar UX in lower price segments the picture would have got put together.

That would have been heaven for developers, too - Nokia planned to use Qt/QML as primary development platform from top to even S40 - according to CTO at that time. Qt/QML is the primary dev. kit for BB10, Sailfis, it is available for iOS and Android development now (http://v-play.net/) and it will be available for free from Digia soon...

Current Lumias at the top does not generate "I want one, or at least one Nokia phone' feelings. Maybe Nokia EOS will change it but I doubt it...

No to mention what technical difficulties would prevent Nokia to release all Lumia models with Meego? None...
The WP ecosystem is not so strong behind. Yes, there are more apps for WP than for Meego now. But serious app development for Meego has been aborted before it was really started. So, from this aspect that 20k apps somebody mentioned before is HUGE achievement...

But see Sailfish, they are open for Android apps - that could have been available for Meego, too. According to rumors, Alien Dalvik was offered to Nokia but the did not want to us it...

About the development cost related to Meego/Meltemi: Jolla has put Sailfish onto the table - there is nothing more to say about it. The funny is that significant funding of them came from Nokia Bridge program, so in fact Nokia financed part of the development... :-)

So, it can be true that the ship approached the iceberg but there was plans how to turn he wheel. I do not know whether execution would have been fast enough but probably Nokia would not be in worse financial situation than today with that plan, too...

And it would be an independent company keeping its fate in its own hands...

zlutor

@Spawn: you do not have to convince me about this topics... :-)

paul

IDC just announced European shipment figures for Q1 2013.

Nokia has went from 8% market share last year shipping 2.3 million phones to 5% market share this year shipping 1.6 million phones. If this rate of decline continues, Nokia will probably be in the Others category. Incredible considering Europe is a core market which they dominated only a few years ago

We should all get behind Jolla (the true Finnish innovator) and buy their phone. It would be hilarious if the Jolla phone ended up outselling Nokia.

zlutor

@hansu: of course, ifs over ifs - we are talking about speculation, no? :-)

I do not say Nokia did not need change - sure, it did, and still do. Believe me, I know what you are talking about when you talk about its internal structure...

What I say in my(!) opinion Meego (with Android app compatibility)+Meltemi+ new Asha platform sharing the same UX and hopefully the same development tool set would be better way to go. At least not worse...

But it really does not matter since Nokia went WP way and we will see really soon whether it start really working or not. I think there is not too much time left - Elop was directly questioned on the shareholders meeting this year and I'm sure he will not get the same question next year.

In one way or an other...

zlutor

@paul: "It would be hilarious if the Jolla phone ended up outselling Nokia." - it would be hilarious on one side and it would be very, very sad at the other side in the same time...

Only exception if both of them delivers in range of tens of millions... ;-)

ejvictor

Guys it's not just about meego, Nokia is more then just one OS/device. @Hansu don't act like a troll and just cherry pick the argument that supports your Microsoft army point of view(that doesn't work here we are analytical and have a healthy skepticism of 'press release journalism). We will never know what would have happened if eFlop fixed execution. If Symbian looked like android in 2011-belle,carla...etc, if the N9 was fully supported, if the N9 ran android apps,if Smarterphone was added to the mix, if QT 5 was released on time....

All of these things were in elops control, he choose to burn it all for Windows Phone- a choice that 'FACT' was a failure, the jig is up NO ONE WANTS TO BUY A WINDOWS PHONE and the new IDC numbers show the crushing decline.

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