My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« (Corrected: Not Blackberry, actually HTC falls out) BREAKING NEWS: Blackberry falls out of Top 10 biggest smartphone makers globally, for Q1 2013, as Coolpad of China enters Top 10 | Main | Now Android Also Biggest Tablet OS - iPad share eroding gradually, with Samsung looming »

April 26, 2013

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c883301901b991238970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Why Do I (still) Think Nokia Will Be Sold (soon)? - This article explains it:

Comments

QtFan

I'm still convinced it will not.

Nokia will continue to shed its value, spining-off division, selling or gifting patents and IP and getting rid of the rest of the assets. Maybe they are deliberately trying to make a Nokia buy less attractive :-P

It is the best interest of MS that Nokia won't be sold and not buying it. Who knows what kind of contracts Nokia have tied itself to.

przemo_li

@QtFan
I would agree but currently MS try to diversify.

Yes current Nokia is perfect for Windows Phone as current Nokia do whatever MS want, but...


Its not working.


So MS must find broader alliance. And they do just that. So Nokia is not irreplacable element. And Nokia SOLD is better than Nokia BANKRUPTED by WinP strategy..

Tester

Nokia not an irreplaceable element?

Come on, they are the only ones stupid enough to bet their entire future on Windows Phone. They currently control 80+% of the Windows Phone market.

If they go down, the entire platform goes down with them. Samsung clearly has no interest, HTC is more or less in trouble as well and the rest - for now don't bother.

So, no, Microsoft can't let Nokia go down. They have to keep it alive at all costs, meaning they'll eventually sell everything except the Lumia unit. Just what Elop has been doing for the last 2 years.

Vinicius

Nokia will not be sold and WP8 will not thrive.

There is almost nothing to be gained from buying Nokia that wouldn't be accomplished cheaper by let it die by itself. Maybe snagging a few patents on a garage sale once it goes belly up, but now anything any company would like to do would be more expensive.

And on topic of why it is going to fail:

I now am an owner of a Lumia device. And I have to say they are not half-bad. Not half-good, either.
For the common man on the street the store seems EVEN MORE devoid of apps than Symbian! If Symbian is a desert, than WP8 is a barren, toxic wasteland. I can't find half the stuff I use on Symbian, and definitely it does not have 1% of Android or iOS apps.
There are many, many things that I struggle to do with it. Simple things like turning mobile data on and off. Using the keyboard. Configuring a new wifi. Things that are supposed to take a couple touches take a couple dozen ones.
And the lack of functionality of the base OS is baffling. Separate volume controls for Ring tone and apps? Between apps? Profiles? Configuration on the phone seems simpler and barer than a feature phone.

It would be pretty hard to grow again using such an ecosystem.

RottenApple

Nokia won't be sold - at least it won't be sold as a whole.

The writing is on the wall that they'll get rid of NSN - but if they do what's left?

Nothing but toxic waste!
- The feature phone division is going to crater this year or next. Nobody wants that.
- The Lumia division is deadlocked into something I wouldn't even call 'ecosystem'. An ecosystem is supposed to be healthy. WP depends on money being constantly thrown after it.
- HERE? Loss-maling. Why should anyone want to buy that. Any smart investor would let it go down with the empty shell.
- Patents? Elop already made sure it's a toxic mess by selling some of it to trolls with conditions that make any attempt to buy Nokia for the patents a futile undertaking.


So for most potential buyers it might be smarter to just sit it out, wait until Nokia goes down - and then buy some interesting pieces.

foo

Regarding the patents, we shouldn't forget that they have a fixed term: 20 years since the filling.

That means that Nokia's patents already lost 15% of their value since Elop was hired.

And Nokia’s most-cited patent—and therefore one of its most valuable—was issued in 1992 for a “method for mapping, translating, and dynamically reconciling data.”

Brian Stephens

Nokia won't be sold, but NSN will be flogged either at the end of this year or next year as Nokia's position continues to get worse. By the time NSN is sold, the feature phone division will be practically dead. Nokia will then abolish Series 40 and the Asha line of devices (early 2014) and instead concentrate solely on Windows Phone Lumia's. At that point, Microsoft will shaft Nokia yet again and abandon Windows Phone (late 2014) and adopt Android as their mobile OS (they'll probably end up doing what Amazon have done with Kindle Fire and create their own eco-system around an Android core with Microsoft branding on top of it). Nokia's remaining IP and assets will end up being sold (2015) to whichever company is the highest bidder.

Turd Elopson

@Brian Stephens

"At that point, Microsoft will shaft Nokia yet again and abandon Windows Phone (late 2014) and adopt Android as their mobile OS"

It is more likely that Microsoft will shaft Windows Phone 9 down Nokia's throat, and in the process Osborning all previous Lumia phones with WP8. And by then Nokia will be the only company in the world making Windows phones; other companies such as Samsung and HTC will have already abandoned Windows.

And that is the 'best case scenario'. What's a worse scenario you ask? Microsoft forcing Nokia to make Windows tablets. A phone company making tablets, and tablets which nobody wants (how well were the Surface tablets selling, hmm?).

Nokia making Windows tablets is like adding insult to injury, no different from hiring a prostitute then beating her up once you're sexually done with her.

As long as Stephen Elop (or some other Microsoft stooge) stays, nothing is going to change at Nokia.

przemo_li

Wonder if MeeGo community (Meer?) will be interested in getting MeeGo brand?

On one hand it would be nice, on the other Nokia did trashed it.

Hansu

So who would want to buy Nokia? Microsoft well yes but they are allready making their phones sure for their patents but Microsoft has Nokia Doing their products what else do they need. Apple well the patent portfolio would be intresting and they would have the cash in their backpocket to buy Nokia several times just for their patents, if Jobs was still alive and in charge I could see him doing it just to fuck with Samsung and the other Android makers byt Cook is a realist and also he has his own problems inside Apple with Schiller and Ive and their conflicting egos. Lenovo maybe or Samsung i doubt simply because the EU trade regulations won't allow it maybe I dont know. I dont think Nokia will be sold anytime soon and the main reason is this a year ago when things looked really bad for Nokia they were losing money hand over fist and share price was at an all time low then Nokia should have been bought because then whoever bought got it way under its market cap for a steal. Now the share price has risen and Nokia has started to make money again..ish breaking even but they have stopped the cash bleeding from what it was.

Spawn

> I dont think Nokia will be sold anytime soon

I don't think so too but cause of another reason: Todays Nokia is trimmed down to resell products, not to research, develop and innovate products themself. They lost that, fired, gone. Who needs a company that has no own products or the potential to make own products?

There are some valuable parts left within Nokia that produce something. HERE, NSN. This are the interesting pieces. There patents are for other reasons. Those 3 values left are in 3 very different areas. It would not make sense to buy all of Nokia, including the expensive problems lose-devisions like there Smartphone-segment are. It not makes sense cause everybody knows the situation Nokia is in. Buying only those parts that are from value for the buyer is possible thanks to continued money-burning while rated junk and hence no new cash.

At this point in time Nokia as a whole is only a name, brand left. The different devisions still acting under that brand are from interest for a buyer, not the whole package. That's why I doubt anybody buys Nokia as a whole. You not need the whole cow for a single burger. What will continue to happen is that valuable parts of Nokia are sold. Vertu, done. Patents, already started. NSN next, then HERE and maybe whats left from the feature-phone segment.

Nokia is falling apart and in that situation buying the whole package does not make sense.

Tester

Nokia must truly be desperate:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-28/nokia-betting-on-20-handset-as-it-loses-ground-on-iphone.html?cmpid=yhoo

Anti-Retard

@Tester

Are you retarded?

e_lm_70

NSN can be sold via IPO anytime ... Siemens is waiting for this moment for cash its investment.

But, NSN is the only source of income for Nokia now. Once sold NSN, Nokia become a losing company, with huge impact in Nokia share price, so, Nokia can't even sell NSN.

Nokia phone mobile division at this stage is not interested for anybody, except from Microsoft, but Microsoft control already Nokia, and history is saying that Nokia brand in the Telecom biznes works better the Microsoft or Surface brand ... so no point fro Microsoft to waste money for have direct control on Nokia, at the end Elop the criminal puppet is doing exactly what BallMer is ordering him.

So ... nothing new in the horizon for Nokia ... NOTHING.

Microsoft and American Funds need to keep Nokia under control for keep up a chance for Microsoft Windows Phone (in few markets WP is looking to get traction, so there is still some hope on the Micro & Soft alliance)

Except Finland and Italy ... Windows Phone has almost no traction ... Android is still growing, dumb-phone is a market in rapid decline ... so ... Nokia still have to suffer ... still focusing on keep their own cash reserves alive, via NSN and IPR ... Market and Investors give a Nokia share valuation so low that nobody believe Nokia can be anything acquired for a premium, nor going to make any decent profit anytime soon ...

Tchuss

e_lm_70

Winter

@Tester
In any respect, this $20 handset is a very good initiative. It will fail if it is only attempted to fund WP phones.

Anti-Retard

@e_lm_70

If I look through this latest Kantar data, I would say that WP-platform is getting quite good traction.

http://wmpoweruser.com/full-kantar-numbers-for-march-2013-shows-steady-windows-phone-progress-reaches-highest-sales-share-figure-so-far/

foo

@Anti-Retard says: "If I look through this latest Kantar data, I would say that WP-platform is getting quite good traction."

2% in China, 6.5% in EU5, and 5.6% in USA -- that's what you call a "quite good traction"???

Two questions:

1) Can Nokia survive with such low sales?

2) What will happen to WP when Nokia goes belly-up?

I would call it a disaster.

vladkr

@Anti-Retard :
"I would say that WP-platform is getting quite good traction."

At what cost ? Have you seen WP devices' retail prices VS competition ?

As Nokia - and I suppose HTC - is losing money on every Windows Phone sold; I would call that drifting more than traction : it's impressive on the short term, but one won't reach any destination this way.

Tester

The big problem with Windows Phone is not that it actually sells but how many of the sales are achieved.

A significant quantity of recent quarters' sales have been heavily discounted WP7 devices - especially in Italy where they have the highest share.

Sure, these numbers look nice in some statistics but ultimately these are a timebomb. Will those customers stay with Nokia for another phone or will they switch to a platform that is more widespread? It's all very uncertain. What's not uncertain is that Nokia's phone business is barely profitable at best - including the feature phones - a market that is going to implode very shortly.

And then you see a headline 'Nokia pushing $20 phone' and in the article they even admit that the main reason is to retain customers so that they can switch to a Nokia smartphone later.

This has to be the most idiotic and most desperate move one could make. Instead of curing the one problem of their low sales (Windows Phone, of course) they are wasting more money trying to sustain their losing strategy.

So what does that mean for potential Nokia buyers? It just reaffirms that the phone manufacturing division is a lost cause. Nokia may be able to sell the rest but no sane buyer would take over this toxic waste dump.

Hansu

@ tester Yes why not now tap into a virgin market an introduce a phone that people who never before had the opportunity to buy a phone have one and I have not seen any cheap android devices for 20USD for sale brand new and also it is tempting offer for those who want a spare phone I mean 20 bucks for phone which battery last for month on standby and a flashlight it's the bargain of century. Inderes an independet analyst company broke down the 105 and they calculated that Nokia would make around 1-2 usd per phone. So let me get this straight Nokia makes WP phone Bad, Nokia makes symbian phone great camera shitty in all other aspects GOOD, Nokia makes cheap phone that enalbles a poor farmer in Africa to buy his first phone and last's a month on a single charge and is almost indestructable, Bad?

Tester

@Hansu:

Good for the farmer, maybe, but definitely not good for Nokia.

Nokia's self admitted goal here is to tie users to the Nokia brand. But since this phone caters to the least affluent group of customers one can be 100% sure that it won't have ANY impact whatsoever on helping high end devices sell.
And we all know that the profits with ultra-cheap phones are minimal at best.

And it definitely cheapens the Nokia brand's value overall if it stands for lowest end of the market.

Hansu

@ Cheapens the brand how? and that's not the point of the 105 is to be someones first phone and then assume that the farmer strikes oil on his field and decides to upgrade to high end Lumia that's not the point. The person who is going to splash out 400-700USD on smartphone usually dont care what other products the company make they want a phone, Samsung makes cheap phones but that doesn't stop people buying the high end devices Apple that's a different story they could do that and people would still line up for their products. Remind me again how Nokia made it in the first place? well they made a product cheaper and better than the competition Nokia has allways made cheap phones did that stop people from Buying High end Nokia's in their heyday no and why should it and besides a cheap Nokia will allways beat an Iphone or Samsung as phone and that's the stuff Nokia is famous for making phones that survive armageddon and nuclear winter and still have 2 bars left on battery indicator. Many who buy a 20usd phone wont be able afford a smartphone/ the country lacks the infrastructure to support it but why blame Nokia for earning 100million US since nobody else dont want it

Pawan

I too think that Nokia will soon beat at least the Samsung. Samsung has been launching lots of identical Galaxy smartphones and now people are bore of the traditional design. As Samsung is not into thinking about new design, so it will be affected by the Nokia soon as Nokia is working very impressively these days. Its Lumia smartphones are really awesome inspite of not running on neither android nor the iOS.

Tester

@Hansu:

>> and then assume that the farmer strikes oil on his field and decides to upgrade to high end Lumia

... but according to some statements in the article I linked that seems to be precisely the intent!

>> Many who buy a 20usd phone wont be able afford a smartphone/ the country lacks the infrastructure to support it but why blame Nokia for earning 100million US since nobody else dont want it .

Again: The cost of the hardware is the least a new mobile owner has to worry about. The costs for the service will far outweigh it. At some point the price for the phone is no longer relevant - or at least not as relevant as some people may think.

And think a little why nobody wants to make it. The answer should be obvious: There's not much money to be made in this segment. I don't know how much it costs to produce such a low end phone but whatever it is, the profit margins are extremely slim, so they will never EVER make $100m profit on them.

@Pawan:

That's utter bullshit. Nobody would buy a phone with an inferior operating system just because the design may be a little better. Those who spend this amount of money look for inner values. All this design FUD comes from questionable US sources who are pimping Apple like crazy and try to find anything negative to say about Samsung.

At least Samsung gets the 2 most important things right, unlike HTC, Nokia and Apple: They got a replaceable battery and an SD card slot. And nobody would think that this may be, perhaps, a reason why Samsung sells so much more?
For me this is a killer criteria to pass on all the other brands.

Hansu

@Tester The cost of using it most of developing world use prepaid so the costs of using the phone depend on how much you talk and text and if the phone is cheap people can afford to use it more. When it comes to the profits the 105 predecessor 1100 sold 250 million units and Nokia if anyone is the master at squeezing the buck from a 20 buck phone and if the farmer finds oil in his field good for him but if he had Nokia as his first phone the odds for him choocing another Nokia is alot higher than if he didn't have any kind of phone to begin with then again he could go for a cheap Android or if he finds oil he will just go for a iphone with 64gb memory and gold protective cover and everything else associated with a third world country becoming instatly rich. But the main point of the 105 is to put Nokia back to the top in mobile phones in shipments and as Stalin put it: A quantity has a quality all of its own

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Recent Comments

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati