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« Rare National Smartphone Market Data via Mary Meeker - Analyzed further and reported also Per Capita + Bonus! Estimate of regional smartphone new sales market sizes for 2013 | Main | Why Do I (still) Think Nokia Will Be Sold (soon)? - This article explains it »

April 25, 2013

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference (Corrected: Not Blackberry, actually HTC falls out) BREAKING NEWS: Blackberry falls out of Top 10 biggest smartphone makers globally, for Q1 2013, as Coolpad of China enters Top 10:

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zlutor

@Kevin: "We can expect around 1million target for Nokia in Q3, cannot we" - NOkia sold 400k(!) Lumias in the US&Canada together in Q1.

Jumping to 1mio would be a miracle - according to my opinion...

Kevin

@zlutor Yes, 400K for Q1, that's right. But with Verizon, I guess there would be another 300k added to Nokia's basket. And, considering natural growing of Lumia on other carriers, an extra 200k increase won't be mad, would it?

Juan

Nokia is finished/done/toast, Kevin.

There is no recovery.

zlutor

@Kevin: I do not know whether it is mad or not. On the other hand 1mio is definitely better than 400k but still nothing in the big picture... :-(

See http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/24/sprint-galaxy-s-4-in-store-delay/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=Feed_Classic&utm_campaign=Engadget

What a difference!

Winter

@Zlutor
"On the other hand 1mio is definitely better than 400k but still nothing in the big picture... :-("

1M ~ 16 hours of Android activations

zlutor

@Winter: "1M ~ 16 hours of Android activations" = "but still nothing in the big picture"
On the other hand it is 1/6 of a Quarter... :-)

Sad to see those numbers in context of Nokia - but it seems we have to get used to it for a while... :-(

leebase

Let's see. BB has phones with keyboards, phones at all price points....and stayed the course committing to it's very own new platform. Surely that's the winning strategy for the disruption that Apple/Google have wrought. Only it hasn't been.

Tester

I'd say it's still to early to declare doom on Blackberry. Don't forget they just started their new platform so it has inevitably caused people to hold off until the new devices are available.

If they can't improve over the next two quarters, yes, then they'll be in trouble.

As for Nokia, yeah, yet another deal. Wanna bet it'll fizzle like all the others before it? They've been trying this game ever since they released the first Lumias, the result is still close to zero.

John Phamlore

And who is Coolpad / Yulong? Why them instead of some other company in China?

http://www.qualcomm.com/media/releases/2006/01/26/qualcomm-and-yulong-subsidiary-china-wireless-technologies-sign-3g

It turns out Yulong Computer Technology Co., Ltd. signed a patent licensing agreement for at least all of Qualcomm's 3G CDMA IP back in 2006. That made sense for them since they still make stuff. That deal was apparently not so great for Nokia who tried to fight Qualcomm only to finally pay something on the order of $2.3 billion USD in a one-time payment and not even get an ability to sell much on Verizon, until possibly now that Nokia has been forced to switch to using Qualcomm chips exclusively.

IP stuff matters as Qualcomm's success and Nokia's collapse have shown. It especially matters when one is dealing with the Chinese where one needs something to bargain with.

Steve

The title got an typo it should be Q1 2013 not Q1 2012.

B a r o n 95

Lets see, all of the top 10, with the exception of Apple, rely on someone else's OS (for 95%-100%) of the smartphones they sell.

Everyone else that tried to stick to their own OSes (after the iPhone came about) died or dropped out and are gone from the 1op 10 list. Palm-WEB/OS-HP = Gone. DoCoMo OEMs (on Symbian fork) = Gone. Blackberry-BB1-BB10 = gone. Etc.

Clearly, unless you are Apple, the only way to stay on the top 10 list is to use a third party American OS (Android or Windows Phone).

Oh, but if only Nokia had stayed the course and used/evolved their own OSes, like Palm, like Blackberry, they'd be....

Only in this alternate reality :)

Winter

@Baron95
"Clearly, unless you are Apple, the only way to stay on the top 10 list is to use a third party American OS (Android or Windows Phone)."

Android is half Finnish.

CN

Tomi's quote in Twitter:

"Apple Q1 2013 results: iPhone sales down 22% from Q4 to 37.4M units (is normal seasonal iPhone sales pattern), market share down to 18%"

The last five years, the growth figures Q1-Q4:
2009: -37%
2010: +19%
2011: +15%
2012: +117%
2013: -22%

"Normal seasonal sales pattern"? I guess we need a definition for the word "normal". Just like for "within weeks". Nokia was supposed to be sold "within weeks", as said by Tomi in July 2012, that's 40 weeks ago.

cycnus

@john palmore

Nokia use qualcom because elop+balmer wp only use qualcom.

zlutor

@Winter: "Android is half Finnish." - ???

Winter

@zlutor
The kernel in Android (= half the OS) is Linux. Linux originated in Finland and it's head maintainer is a Fin.

zlutor

@Winter: OK, I see! :-)

I know what Linux is...

John Phamlore

@cycnus

Here's the connection between Nokia and Blackberry

http://www.zdnet.com/how-tis-move-out-of-smartphones-into-servers-highlights-chip-issues-7000007439/

"But MeeGo development handsets had been entirely based on OMAP chips, so when TI cancelled development of its OMAP chip with an integrated baseband modem in late 2008, that was pretty much the death knell for the project -- especially as Nokia worked with Intel to develop MeeGo, which meant no CDMA MeeGo handsets for Sprint or Verizon and no LTE MeeGo handsets for any market at all."

As the above commentary notes, Blackberry had similar problems having to switch hardware platforms due to TI's dropping out of the business.

And the author of the above doesn't even note the common thread with how TI refusing to compete with Intel led to Sun Microsystems being unable to timely bring out their latest Sparc servers.

Winter

@John Phamiore
The lesson? Never ever have a single supplier for a critical component.

Huber

@Baron: >> Clearly, unless you are Apple, the only way to stay on the top 10 list is to use a third party American OS (Android or Windows Phone).

LOL! This is so stupid I couldn't stop laughing, I almost spilled my coffee over the keyboard.

1st.) You do not want to compare the success of Android to the 'success' of WP, do you? One is the dominating smartphone OS, the other OS only is a niche (P)OS.

2nd.) The companies which failed did not fail because they wrote their own OS. They failed because the OS they wrote failed and they were totally dependent on this OS.

This is exactly what currently happens to Nokia, too: Nokia depends on the success of WP. Since WP is a failure, Nokia nose-dives into irrelevancy, too.

If Nokia had a smart CEO instead of the arsonist Elop, they would have multiple OSes, too (at least Symbian, Meego, Meltemi and WP).

So when WP fails, Nokia would have a plan B. They do not, so they fail.

And this is exactly what the failed companies had in common: No plan B.

N9

@John Phamlore, I guess meego kernel could never support other chip makers, because its such a peculiar unused in mobile kernel???

Janne Särkelä

@CN

Well, if you check out this chart of quarterly sales since 2007 there is a pattern: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/0b80bf3cdc3194f8e35dfa67baa0d80a.png

In four cases Q2 is less than Q1, and in two cases Q2 is more. If the markets were stable too I'd guess the dip would be more prominent in the chart.

Similar pattern can be observed with Nokia.

There exists a seasonal variation, which is amplified or attenuated by other factors, which add noise... For example if the company is on a growth/decline path the the dip would be hidden.

zlutor

@John Phamlore: "Nokia worked with Intel to develop MeeGo, which meant no CDMA MeeGo handsets for Sprint or Verizon and no LTE MeeGo handsets for any market at all" - why?

Android supports many solutions, MeeGo is Linux, too. I think hw adaptation should be quite similar if not the same for both of them...

The one can find many valid(?) reasons cancelling MeeGo but not HW issues...

cycnus

@john pamlore

You have a WRONG FACT!!!!!

TI was in a good health. Nokia as the biggest smartphone manufacture use lots of TI chips.

The collapse of TI because elop suddenly change the cost of Nokia. WP only use Qualcomm chip.

przemo_li

@John Phamlore

Considering that Meer community was able to run MeeGo on Nexus hardware, I can hardly see why it would be problem to company with Nokia resources.

We talk Top500...

And till recent events Nokia was only accused for bad management, not lack of resources...

http://gizmodo.com/5648730/meego-looks-pretty-great-on-everyone-elses-phones


(After all that's why everybody is crazy about Linux in smartphone space. It allow You to run your software on anything)

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