My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« We passed 4 million lifetime visits to this blog over weekend - thank you to readers | Main | The Annual Mobile Industry Numbers and Stats Blog - Yep, this year we will hit the Mobile Moment.. »

March 01, 2013

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c8833017c3730f0c3970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Nokia Catastrophy in Single Pictures: Today the Ultimate Picture, Number 9: The Misery Graph - here is how Nokia's destiny is seen from the future:

Comments

Dipankar

"This is so sad, seeing Europe's biggest tech giant destroyed by a delusional Canadian madman who wants to shift the inventor of the smartphone, Nokia, back to the 1990s. "

It's bad enough to call out the Finnish Army and invade Canada!
Led by General Ahonen, maybe ;-)

DS

Elop has finally came to its senses and is pushing WP8 on low cost (low end is not possible given the platform restrictions = nokia profits go bust) devices, where it belongs.
This is the first year I've actually seen Nokia WP devices (low cost range of course) in the wild. And this year is final round for Nokia WP, and the game will be played in the low cost market.

MS is tripping Nokia by releasing laughable 7.8 update and messing up WP8-WP7 compatibility story even more, ultimately killing all the remaining support that WP7 had among developers. That closes that avenue to low cost just after Snapdragon S3 is starting to get cheap. What else can they screw up?

zlutor

@DS: "Elop has finally came to its senses" - well, it was not Elop's fault/decision not to push WP7.x into low-cost segment. WP7.x was simply not capable of 'going down'.

That is one reason I think Nokia should have forgot WP before WP8 has got released - if they had any plan to go for WP at all...

cycnus

Tomi,

I was curious, do you have any data of dumb->smart? Which country is leading? Which country is STILL on the dumb phone and not changing?

Lasko

And yet again Samsung does is just quite right - quite contrary to Nokia.

They are full part of the transition thanks to the Bada - Tizen transition, which will not only transition from featurephone to smartphone but rather from a featurephone operating system to a smartphone operating system - in an application-compatible way (Tizen 2.0 offers Bada the API)!

The is just ridiculous - it appears to be that Samsung isn't able to do anything wrong, whereas Nokia isn't able to do anything right.

Lasko

"Elop has finally came to its senses and is pushing WP8 on low cost (low end is not possible given the platform restrictions = nokia profits go bust) devices, where it belongs."

Low cost = Low margin.

This is *not* what is going to save Nokia.

Gai

@Lasko

I thought Bada is not upgradeable to Tizen?

Tester

@Lasko:

>> (Tizen 2.0 offers Bada the API)!


Whether this is good or bad remains to be seen. The Bada API was shit. So all the Tizen phones are already saddled with some heavy legacy baggage.

And BTW: Bada is a smartphone OS, not feature phone. It was already counted as such in any statistic available and in terms of capabilities it's quite clear that it's a smartphone system. Low market share and low end positioning doesn't discount this.

Uwe

@Tester:

>> "The Bada API was shit. So all the Tizen phones are already saddled with some heavy legacy baggage."

Hm, that is not what the Tizen documentation says. Tizen is based on LiMo and applications will be based on HTML5 and some script libraries (like jQuery). Samsung did consider merging Bada and Tizen development at some point, and to have Tizen support legacy Bada applications. Nothing has been heard about that for almost 9 months now, and when Samsung did announce Bada dead on the 25th of February 2013, they did not make any mention of anything Bada moving to Tizen. "We are moving development to Tizen" is all they said.

Lasko

As far as I know the native API of Tizen, as included in the 2.0 SDK, is based on the Bada API.

Michael Cox

Tomi, just a thought for your great blog... A black background/white text version for reading on a mobile to save battery as your posts take some time to read :).

John Phamlore

@Lasko The reason why Samsung does everything right is it owns stuff and makes stuff. Samsung actually can and does make phones for every phone OS that is available to it. It can do so at every price point a particular segment might demand.

Samsung unlike Nokia developed their own LTE baseband chipset.

Samsung unlike Nokia developed their own ARM SoC.

Samsung unlike Nokia owns their own fabs.

Samsung is regarded as a national champion of South Korea and is treated accordingly being allowed to expand in all sorts of areas to accumulate the cash to be able to afford to spend on research, development, and manufacturing.

Neither the EU nor the Eurozone has any idea how to support a non-French or German company like Nokia that should be regarded as a continent-wide champion.

Tester

@John Phamlore:

>> Neither the EU nor the Eurozone has any idea how to support a non-French or German company like Nokia that should be regarded as a continent-wide champion.

Don't you mean a money grave?

I doubt that any government intervention would have prevented the corporate rot that had infested Nokia. They didn't fail due to lack of government 'protection' but simply because they misjudged the market and couldn't act anymore with their inefficient and bloated structure. And when they finally made decisions they were just dead wrong. Since 2007, each and every time they made a decision they were wrong - the biggest one, of course, Elop's WP misadventure.

How on Earth can such a company be saved?

John Phamlore

@Tester Both the United States and China have established unnecessary channel access methods, the US with Verizon and Sprint CDMA, the Chinese with TD-SCDMA and now TD-LTE, that have served as IP barriers benefiting domestic companies, the US with Qualcomm, the Chinese with their national champions such as Huawei.

The Asians are also noted for their being willing to pay for infrastructure that aids new factories and research centers, the Chinese in particular establishing a supply chain that will be very hard for the West to catch up to.

Nokia's problem is that they simply failed to bet on the winning technology of the future LTE. That was a bare minimum for surviving at anywhere near the size they had. With clear direction would come planning to achieve what they needed to do as far as securing IP for their own LTE baseband chips and somewhere to fab them.

The clear example of how it was necessary to bet on LTE is shown by Ericsson who while exiting the handset business is a world leader in telecom infrastructure and who is going to clean up in the US for over a decade supporting new US LTE network.

Spawn

@DS

> And this year is final round for Nokia WP, and the game will be played in the low cost market.

They lost that already. With Lumia last month when Huawei and Microsoft introduced the WP8 4Africa smartphone. First Huawei made de P1 beating Lumia 620 and short before the Lumia 520 came out Huawei beatthem again already in price, specs and as preferred Microsoft partner. Let alone the much cheaper Android devices. Keep in mind that Nokia has to pay $40 per device license-fees to Microsoft. As cheaper the devices as more those license-fees become a serious disadvantage. I am sure Huawei pays a fraction of that for its WP8.

@zlutor

> it was not Elop's fault/decision not to push WP7.x into low

It was Elop's fault to push and promise low segment Lumia while not being able to deliver. Microsoft never ever promised WP for low end. Microsoft's focus is 100% on peofitable high and higher segments. That never was in question, a secret, unknown. Elop just went on to promise things he can't deliver to kill there next billion low-end strategy Meltimi cause "WP will do that for us". A typical call me Mister General Failure.

@Uwe

> Samsung did consider merging Bada and Tizen development ... Nothing has been heard about

No big splash but Tizen 2.0 is exactly that. The native API is out, its Bada API. They deliver already.

@John Phamlore

> Nokia's problem is that they simply failed to bet on the winning technology

Yes, they went all in with WP and lost. That's how gambling works but now how a proper company strategy should look like.

cycnus.i.cant.post

@Marc Aurel

"This is why I don't like your offhand dismissing of Nokia's decision to call the Asha Touch phones smart phones."

This FROM NOKIA PRESS RELEASE:
http://press.nokia.com/2013/02/26/nokia-asha-305-wins-best-entry-level-phone-at-mobile-world-congress/

In this press release, nokia announce that it's asha 305 win the BEST FEATUREPHONE AWARD beating another 2 nokia phone and a samsung phone.

Even nokia think that Asha = FeaturePhone. What really happened was Elop trying TO FOOL INVESTOR. elop want nokia looks successful by including the asha number in smarpthone.

cycnus

@Henrik Nergard

What so great about WP???
Microsoft were loosing money on it.
Nokia were loosing money on it.
LG (was) loosing money on it.
Sony (was) loosing money on it.

This called DUMPING. and there's a law against dumping.

cycnus

@Mark aurel

I need to add...
IF Asha 305 WERE SMARTPHONE... It WILL NOT WIN THAT AWARD IN THAT CATEGORY.

Spawn

@Alex Takacs

> Symbian touchscreen attempts around 2008-2010 failed to provide a competitive experience (N97, N8...)

N8 with first Symbian^3 wqs full touch-screen. The problem was more on the UI side where things where not even close as polished as iPhone was. That changed with Anna (first Symbian^3 update) and even more with Belle (second Symbian^3 update). Belle is really good and is competative. The N9 UI-concepts made it to Symbian. Fast, beautiful, featuerich and rock-stable. Just try the 808 PureView.

Those updates came from Accenture, after Elop's Nokia outsourced and closed Symbian development already, with a way smaller team and budget. Nokia itself could have come up with thise updates much faster if not burned beforehand.

> and the platform legacy was too heavy to move fast enough

Symbian Belle and MeeGo N9 prove you wrong. What happened with Symbian is exactly the same pattern Elop applied to MeeGo and Meltimi. Short before killed.

I don't need to add that Symbian sold by factors bettern then both, WP7 Lumia and WP8 Lumia, or?

Lasko

@Henrik Nergard

"In the smartphone market I see three players in the long run. Android, iOS and Windows Phone 8."

We hear this crap for years now, and now it is even less true then ever. There *was* a window of opportunity for Windows Phone, but now it's gone and it failed miserably. We have OEMs dropping Windows Phone for Tizen and Firefox OS in smartphone business, like LG, we have OEMs dropping Windows for Ubuntu and ChromeOS in traditional computing, like Dell, HP, Samsung and all the others. Microsoft and Windows is losing ground left, right and center - and yet people stand up and say "but now its time for Windows Phone". This is completely deslusional and stupid. It has had its chance, and it failed, miserably. So did everyone banking on it, above all Nokia and Elop.

Windows Phone is gone. Period.

@John Phamlore

"Neither the EU nor the Eurozone has any idea how to support a non-French or German company like Nokia that should be regarded as a continent-wide champion."

This is just plain wrong. It was above all Nokia which got subsidized left, right and center and literally money shoved up their asses across Europe. But Europe did stop doing so simply for two reasons: constant dick moves on the end of Nokia (Bochum Germany, Cluj Romania, et al.) and the simple fact that most decision makers think that Nokia in this state has absolutely *no* future and that spending money for it is wasting money.

EU beeing not beeing corporate-friendly? You are kidding yourself, really!

JP

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1241121

That proves the theory that operators just milk Microkia...

khim

@Spawn: Yes, they went all in with WP and lost. That's how gambling works but now how a proper company strategy should look like.

So very true. Because.

@John Phamlore: Nokia's problem is that they simply failed to bet on the winning technology of the future LTE.

Yes, Nokia went with WiMax and failed. BUT! Samsung ALSO was a huge WiMax supporter:
http://www.wirelessweek.com/news/2007/02/samsung-shows-way-wimax-handsets

And it CONTINUED to support it even when it failed:
http://www.ubergizmo.com/2011/07/sprint-wimax-samsung-galaxy-s-ii-spotted-at-the-fcc/

But of course Sumsaung ALSO kept LTE efforts and when WiMax failed it was able to offer LTE, too.

And the same with Android, WindowsPhone, Bada, Tizen, whatever: Samsung does not burn bridges while Nokia was increasingly more gambling company. Why? Why company which produces bazillion handsets will, nonetheless, abandon whole sectors (as it turned out later SUCCESSFUL sectors)? Just Why?

That's just crazy - and it happened before Elop, he just went to the logic conclusion with this mad strategy.

Lasko

On a short note: Nokia has just been thrown out of the Euro-Stoxx-50 (and EADS got in); it no longer counts as one of the most valueable companies of Europe.

Prepare for another dive.

Henrik

@Henrik Nergard The "If they make Android devices it will just be one manufactor in the jungle with Samsung, HTC, Sony etc.."

I see that a lot when people defending why Nokia picked WP and not Android.
But with MS you really are one of many. All looks the same OS wise. You are not allowed to change anything.
On Android you can make your custom skin and become unique. Yes there are a Love/Hate relation for the differece skins on Android. But that is one of the thinks that make and HTC, Samsung, Sony, Huawei, LG, Motorola, etc. Android devices not just "one of many"

WP. It's hard to see what the difference are from buying a HTC WP8 or Nokia WP8 phone in the same end of the line up.
The only difference are
1) The price.
2) The color of the cover.
3) Is it says Nokia og HTC on the cover.

So as I see it. Making WP then you really are just one of many

Winter

@JP
http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1241121

Nokia marketing in China is mirored in the rest of the world, see the comments.


I cannot explain such behavior except when there really is no demand.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati