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March 06, 2013

Comments

Angel

What is the source of this data? I can see that it's from the Tomi Ahonen Almanac, but what is the underlying data source?

u1w1e

Do you think this is authentic and representative: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2416521,00.asp?q5375492=1

Winter

@u1w1e
WP8 phones do not sell AT ALL, NO ONE seems to want them. Then an internet poll finds that WP8 is the most loved phone OS.

When put against each other, I think I believe the sales numbers, that WP8 is unloved and nobody wants it.

The fact that an internet poll turns out to be unreliable does not really shatter my believes. However, it is telling that someone thought it necessary to mess up an internet poll this badly.

u1w1e

@Winter: This is not a crusade for or against WP8. But I think there are some early signs of WP8 becoming the 3rd Smartphone Ecosystem (also check out kantar-numbers for the last couple of months or simply the amazons ranking for "Cell Phones with Service"). Nothing indicates that WP8 is outselling Android or iOS, but there is a certain momentum, that one should be able to see.

The link (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2416521,00.asp?q5375492=1) is from PCMAG and they are around for more then 20 years as a big and independent publication in the IT sector.

Winter

Some silly reporting:
Android's Growth Finally Slows Down
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-androids-growth-finally-slows-down-2013-3?utm_content=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alerts&nr_email_referer=1

Jay Yarow divides the 270M activations since 09/10/12 by 189 days to arrive at an average of 1.4M activations per day. So far so good.

However, he then claims that the daily activation rate is 1.4M *now*. Instead, this averaging is an estimate of the activation rate in December.

Even a very simple intrapolation would put the current daily activation rate at over 1.5M.

See for yourself. The following perl one liner will simply add the daily activation rate over the 189 days, starting at 480M activated ($s) and a rate of 1.3M/day ($r). Then adds a small increment to the rate that combines to 40k more daily activations per month (that is the historical rate of increase).

The outcome: 1.56M activations per day today. (note that there will have been a bumb in sales in December)

perl -e '$s=480;$r=1.3;for($i=0;$i<189;++$i){$s+=$r;$r+=0.00137};print "$r: $s\n"'

When will we reach a billion at this rate increase? In somewhat over 150 days. Indeed, in August.

Tester

@u1w1e:

Sorry, but when it comes to Windows Phone I don't believe anything the press reports anymore. Here's why:

I can do my own poll among friends and colleagues. There are 4 Apple users, 15 Android users and one WP user.
The WP user, which seems to be typical for this platform is blindly oblivious of everything else and dismissed it out of hand.
The Apple users, naturally, are really fond of their system, heavily biased but in general do not exhibit the kind of abovementioned ignorance.
The Android users are very discriminating and critical of their platform. There seems to be very little fanboy mentality here.

Imagine how this affects the scores among these systems. There's so much bias going in that the platform with the least critical users will automatically come out first - and yes, that is indeed Windows Phone! That it's barely 5% of the polled group gets lost somewhere.

Here's some facts, not guesswork:

Remember 2.5 years ago when Windows Phone 7 was relased:

They said that this was 'the operating system to dominate mobile business'. 'It's from Microsoft - their market power alone will make it a success.

The end result: It had a pitiful 1% market share at the end of the year. It was Android to dominate the business.

Fast forward to February 2011: Nokia announces WP support.

The press couldn't stop itself praising this 'smart decision ensuring the company's future'. Analysts couldn't predict high enough where it would end. Only a handful of geeks (and Tomi Ahonen of course ;) predicted Doom and Gloom - and look where it ended: far, far below the most negative predictions!

Fast forward another 1.5 years to October 2012: WP8 was released:
Again the press couldn't be more optimistic. 'The best mobile OS ever created' was just one of the headlines I saw. Now, 3 months later, sales still haven't picked up.
In the same time period Apple made record sales with the iPhone 5, the press Samsung got for their Galaxy 4 launch was unreal, all other Android vendors have also started releasing full HD phones. WP8 prices start falling faster than anyone would like. And why is that?`Well, right now they got nothing to compete with the ultra high-end, that market is effectively closed off. So they have to go after less tech-savvy people to sell some volume.
There's just one big problem with that: These people are not attractive customers to third party suppliers because all they want is a device to make phone calls and occasionally surf the internet. You do not need apps for that. This may temporarily spike sales, it won't make good profit though and it most certainly won't improve the app situation.

And now it gets even worse: Blackberry releases their new phone which got a lot more and a lot better press than WP ever did, in a few months Samsung will release Tizen and Firefox OS will take over the feature phone market. So I wonder, where can Microsoft grow with all these competitors hunting for the same resources.

Winter

@u1w1e
"But I think there are some early signs of WP8 becoming the 3rd Smartphone Ecosystem "

These elusive "green shoots of recovery" have been stalled for over two years now.

I will believe it when WP8 phone actually starts to sell above the noise level.

Currently, the sales numbers are from the clearance sale bins in various dump price shops.

Winter

And more fun from WP8:

Windows Phone 8 support to end in 2014
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/03/18/winphone_8_support_ends_july_2014/

Only speculation about what will follow after the end of WP8 support.

Tester

I just read that myself elsewhere. Unbelievable! MS is struggling hard in the mobile business and yet again they pull such an anti-consumer stunt.

If this gets down to the salespeople in the stores there will be Hell to pay.

One wonders if MS is already rolling out the Doomsday scenario for WP.

Decade

Well, Nokia just earned my undying hatred. They're pulling no stops in trying to use their patent portfolio to stop their competitors.

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2013/032513-nokia-uses-its-patents-to-268055.html

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Amanda

I'm curious about the statistic that 90% of people who have ever taken a picture have only done so on a camera phone. Any source for this statistic? It seems a bit drastic, especially since Microsoft is advertising with it.

AndThisWillBeToo

@Decade
I fail to follow your logic. So you think that companies should allow their competition to use technologies that they have a patent for?

digital

The mobile world should go on increasing, because future lies in Mobile.

Buy Nokia Asha 501 Online from :
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rochii

Right away I am going to do my breakfast, after having my breakfast coming again to read additional news.

xtrasize

I'm not sure exactly why but this site is loading extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end? I'll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

xtrasize

Hmm it appears like your website ate my first comment (it was extremely long) so I guess I'll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I'm thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I'm still new to the whole thing. Do you have any tips and hints for first-time blog writers? I'd really appreciate it.

penis-agrandir.eu

I almost never leave a response, but i did a few searching and wound up here Communities Dominate Brands: The Annual Mobile Industry Numbers and Stats Blog - Yep, this year we will hit the Mobile Moment... And I actually do have a few questions for you if you usually do not mind. Could it be just me or does it seem like a few of the responses come across like they are left by brain dead folks? :-P And, if you are writing on additional online sites, I'd like to follow everything fresh you have to post. Would you list of the complete urls of your communal sites like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?

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Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

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