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March 19, 2013

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Lasko

Samsung did actually make another smart move in preparing the field for Tizen - having a dig at the competition, again. Well, this isn't smart - or new - in itself, but it is interesting to see who they dig at. Not their obivous competition, iOS, or their current partner, Android, but rather the wannabe third ecosystem Windows.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324077704578358283252725470.html

"Smartphones and tablets based on Microsoft's Windows operating system aren't selling very well. There is a preference in the market for Android. In Europe, we're also seeing lackluster demand for Windows-based products."

So we do not even have 'mixed' customer and carrier reception for Windows (Phone) 8, absolutely tanking sales figures for all of the three systems, Windows Phone 8 , Windows RT, Windows 8, and the struggling major partner Nokia we also have the worlds largest and most well known manufacturer, Samsung, deliberately acting against Windows too (most probably to push Tizen).

Good luck, Windows Phone and Nokia. Good luck, Mr. Ballmer and Mr. Elop.

Tester

I still wonder whether Tizen will end up successful or not - especially in the high end market.

It all depends on how much the customers value app support. Those who do are unlikely to switch to an unproven low market share platform.

I also wonder how much influence the carriers really have. Apple's success is an indicator that ultimately customer demand decides. Otherwise Apple would never have been able to extort the carriers like they did. On the opposite end we have Windows Phone. Despite carrier dislike there have been a handful of heavily advertised and heavily sponsored launches - and where did they end up? Due to lack of customer demand they all failed - miserably.

I think Tizen has to be really good to succeed. If it can't match Android's quality I won't give it any chance in the market - and in that case it won't matter how much it gets pushed. The system needs to offer what the customer wants, otherwise they stick to Samsung's Android phones - or if Samsung abandons Android switch manufacturers. If push comes to shove, a Sony Android phone is just as good at running Android apps as Samsung's offerings. I like my Galaxy not because it's a great Samsung phone but because it's a great Android phone.

Firefox? Sorry, no apps, no smartphone, if you ask me. In my book this ranks as a featurephone OS, nothing more. If Firefox is supposed to be smartphone, then Asha is, too, and many other low end touchscreen devices. I think this can only be sold by deceiving unknowledgeable customers and they'd be in for a rough awakening later, meaning little chance of selling upgrade phones later.

Fubar

Tomi. The business and portfolio rationale for a Qwerty in Nokia line up was made strongly (based on a quantitative research study) almost 3.5 years ago by people the Nokia Consumer Insights team to the Smartphone Portfolio teams (that Jo Harlow headed)...and ignored....so there is a pattern there.

Winter

The big growth in mobile the coming years will be in the low end. 5 Billion mobile phone users all switching to smartphones. The first one to make a good, robust Smartphone for $50 will really sell billions of hand-sets.

So I think any platform that targets the "High-End" will remain marginal. Remain only Android and Firefox as contenders. If Firefox OS has the first decent $50 smartphone, they could make a real splash.

Note that any OS based on Linux can include a Dalvik VM and have instant App support.

zlutor

yet an other bad news... :-(

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/03/nokia-corporation-adr-nok-windows-phone-sales-weak-baml/

'In addition, BAML analysts did some research on European acceptance of the Windows phone. According to their analysis, it appears that the devices lost market share during February, most notably in the U.K., Finland and Germany."

ejvictor

Tomi:
What do you think of the possible evolutionary forks created by ability for carrier branded phones manufactured by ODM's and cheap flagship phones created by the likes of Blu products sold directly to consumers? The heavy lifting of building ecosystems is complete, the Android APK and QT are the winners in the App war.

So companies like Jolla can yell from rooftops "Come, we will build you a great unique device!" Blu is yelling own a GS4 clone for $299... Carriers (especially USA carriers) want to stop subsidizing devices and they want to gain control back from the "consumer electronic brands".

Hansu

Tomi mä skriivan tän sulle suomeks saat poistaa sen whateva 1. Se kuluttaja lehden vertailu oli helkkarin tasaväkinen ja kauppalehti repi siitä ison jutun niinkuin aina ja 920 voitti engadgetin ja gizmodon lukiakyselyt ja ketä kiinostaa Marttakerhon testi ei ketään 2. usko vittu jo Symbian on oli paska järjestelmä teknisesti se oli WIN 95 Kosketusnäyttö mailmassa joo kamera softa oli hyvä mut kaikki muu oli päin helvettiä siinä se oli hidas ja kömpelö ja Nokia olis nyt lappu luukkulla ja jos symbianilla oltaisiin jatkettu. Mä olen samaa mieltä siitä että operaattorit vihavaat mikkisoftaa ja miksi. Ainoa harmillinen asia siinä on että WP8 ei ole mikään huono käyttis oon käyttäny kaikkia kolmea ios android ja WP8 ja se on itseasiassa aika hyvä paljon parempi kuin symbian paitsi ehkä kamera softan osalta mutta kaikki muu on paljon paremapaa ja mun on vähän vaikea uskoa tota skype kommenttia koska skype oli jo sovelluksena iOS ja androidilla ennen ku WP tuli ulos. Mitä Meegoon tulee sinä itse kirjotit että se ei ollu Elop joka tappoi Meegon se oli johtokunta joka oli jo päättännyt siitä ennen kuin hän tuli. Yks kysymys miks nokian osake laski O-P Kallasvuon aikaan vaikka he tekivät myyntiennätyksiä?!?. Tomi sä oot hyvä analyytikko, yks parhaista mut Symbianilla ei Nokiaa pelasteta not by a long shot
This is written in Finnish I would like to give Tomi a piece of my mind this will be deleted but I hope he reads it atleast

Robert

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/3/18/googles-penetration-of-android

"Hence, the portion of Android that is neither Samsung nor in China is only 40%. That must make some people nervous."

Google services and apps are not on Android phones in China. !! Samsung is pushing Galaxy brand over Android OS. Yeah, Google might be a bit nervous.

Winter

@Robert
"Android phones in China"

Given that Google has withdrawn from China, why should they care?

There is no way Google would be able to sneak back into China using Android. If Google want to have a presence in China, they will have to go in fully. They do not seem to want a presence in China.

In short, China is closed to Google for the time being. How Android is sold in China has little effect on Google. It is not as if there is an alternative to Android for Google.

Pekka Perkeles

With all these changes in 2013, I wonder if Skype will go away from the mobile segment.

Is that really what the market wants?

J.O. Aho

I think we will see Microsoft withdraw from the phone market, if they had decided to stay, they wouldn't mentioned a EOL for WP8 but just the shell come when they had released WP9.

RottenApple

Microsoft's announcements is very suspicious. If they planned a normal update it'd make no sense to EOL WP8 now. It'd just be replaced and go away.

By telling it now it looks like it's merely a means to avoid liability claims later when people find out they've been duped.

Anyone thinking about buying a Windows phone should be extremely cautious.

vladkr

@Pekka Perkeles :

What's interesting is that Skype has been judged partially illegal in France last week (actually it's illegal since the beginning, but authorities filed a new complain last week) , as it must be declared (but isn't yet) as a communication provider, and then it must comply with French rules regarding communications.

In short :

Either it stops providing Skype to phones communications, or it declares itself as a provider, and then act as a provider (allow emergency calls, allows judge-warranted interceptions, provide public services and so on...)

So according to the French law, Skype is indeed an operator, unfairly competing with mobile and fixed line operators.

Mikko

It's "annus horribilis" with and 'i' (not that I know any Latin).

gordon

@Tomi,

A quick question regarding your view of Apple:
You write that Apple must/should split their line and offer cheaper phones to increase market share.
But if I understand correctly, Apple was never about absolute market-share numbers - they want to target the small but lucrative share. Same as they will never offer a $350 laptop - they are not interested in the crowd that looks for cheaper laptops.
Do you think they really need to go after the people who are looking for a $100 phone? those people are not likely (or less likely) to spend money in the Apple eco-system (e.g. iTunes/App store).
Unlike other vendors that sell a phone (=hardware) once and never see a dime later (and thus, need to sell more and increase market share), apple keeps earning from iPhone users - so it will focus on users who can actually spend more money.

Do you see it differently? or have other reasons to think increasing market share is the way to go?

Thanks!
-gordon

Earendil Star

I would not write off Windows 8 right now... yet.

I believe MS is trying all it can to remain relevant in the smartphone arena.
No, they will not yield. It's not like the Zune, which was a diversion.
It's survival. They will possibly loose lots of money. But they will stick with WP.

Enter Windows Blue. Or will it be Windows Blues? We'll see.

Meanwhile, I was thinking at the MS trolls writing all along that Nokia had to choose WP because otherwise it could not differentiate...

WHAT A LIE! The only OS that really is antithetical to differentiation is... WP!!

All WP are exactly the same. Clones. Copies.

All with the AdTiles, those irritating squares and rectangles in endless motion that incessantly push ads over to you... Disgusting.

In reality, the one OS that allows for real differentiation is... ANDROID!!!

As everybody knew since inception.

A couple of examples:

1) Amazon
2) Samsung and its TouchWiz interface and bundled software, its pens, its notes, etc.
3) HTC with it's serious tile interface, not the childish Modern UI from WP
4) Nook
5) the Chinese versions
6) you name it...

Nokia should have continued its Meego transition path, but to differentiate, it should have chosen Android. That would have given Nokia a boost.

No need to give patents, Maps & other goodies to MS.
It could have kept hold of everything, without being forced to make gifts to Redmond.
It would have preserved its independence and profits. What really counts.
Now it's just an empty corpse, its sould being lost and void.

But helping Nokia was not was THT Elop was sent there for.

Jorma Ollila knows. Jorma should speak! Now!

PS: in other news... NO-ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!

Earendil Star

Of course I meant... "I would not write off Windows Phone 8 right now... yet."

Cheers!

Jack1059

Tomi you amaze me with your insights and clear analysis in all areas of smartphones, and I enjoy the reads. So why is the exception as you say with blackberry? What is it with blackberry that you can't seem to get a handle on? Especially since you continue to reiterate that the path nokia should have been on with meego, is the same path blackberry took with bb10. I'm not having a go at you either. It's a genuine question. We always read, carrier support is important. A clear migration path is important. A loyal user base to migrate to the new os is important. BlackBerry has all of those, but you only ever summarise them in a few sentences. Seems odd to me given blackberry is the new nokia. The nokia as it should have been before that idiot elop destroyed it with the boards consent. Anyway, my main point is more analysis with blackberry would be interesting to read.

keitai denwa

All the analysts glamouring how tizen will replace android at samsung are delusional. Just try yourself tizen 2.0 on the tizen developer phone - it looks (and lags) like android 1.5 despite running on very powerful hardware. The tizen UX experience so much behind WP and android that it's not even funny. Samsung has strong marketing, adequate HW engineering but fails at software engineering. Despite of being years in development, tizen is still deeply disappointing.

The only reason tizen exists is to have a negotiation leverage with google. The same reason why operators keep talking about "3rd ecosystem" - they don't really want one, they just want to keep google on toes.

cycnus

test

i can't post

cycnus

@Jack1059

I agree with you.
Tomi got the concept right with BB but screw up the prediction.

Tomi said in the past that BB were loosing the cool factor. Most BB user don't upgrade their BB phone, but upgrade the other phone. What Tomi miss were, after a couple of month of using the other phone+bb, most of this BB user will dump the BB completely and start using BBM alternative. This is the reason that BB usage patern were going over the cliff.

Tomi assuming that this ex-BB user love their BB, and will go back to BB? I think it's perfectly safe to say that most ex-BB user will say they have a sour relationship with BB. Reason? BB hang most of the time (must remove the battery and restart the phone), slow internet, internet problem, BBM can only talk to BB user, so no point of using BB if friend also already move to other platform.

And not to mention that all the new BB user in developed country were buying BB because it's cheap, BB7 device were as low as US$80 now. they were not the target of BB10.

So, I think BB will have a hard time. a VERY HARD time to fight against Android/iOS & FireFox.

cycnus

test again???
i can't post again???

N900

Tizen will be interesting. Last year you predicted Tizen to be released in 2012. Now it's second half 2013 and 10 percent of Samsung including a real flagship. I just think that is a bold prediction, but we will see. Now that Nokia is dead you can at least spare yourself the work to explain every month why it is still dead.

zlutor

@keitai denwa: "Samsung has strong marketing, adequate HW engineering but fails at software engineering" - you know, they copied Nokia in every aspect... :-)

Jonas Lind

Assume that Samsung can deliver a Tizen phone like the Nokia N9. Bravo. But they still have the problem of a non existing app eco system. Of course they will support HTML5, though that is far from enough to offer fast and seamless apps with a native GUI/UX. However, if Samsung is serious about Tizen they can put their financial muscles behind supporting a cross platform tool that will convert Android and iOS native code base into Tizen in a seamless and bug free way.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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