Quick Update in our 'Guess Windows Phone Q4 2012 Market Share' Twitter-contest

I'm currently stuck in heavy travel and having limited connectivity. But now that I have a moment (they will call my flight shortly) - I wanted to let my readers and the 'contestants' know, that we have the first of the decisive data points having published. By contestants, I am referring to my Twitter contest over a year ago, to try to guess how Windows Phone will fare globally in the Q4 quarter of 2012. We had entries ranging from selling 0.4% market share to as high as 43.2%. The major industry analyst view at the time in late 2011 when this contest ran, was in the middle teens in terms of market share, so around 15% give or take. My view was that Windows would have less than half that. But yes, here is the full list of all contestants and their entries.

Canalys has published their numbers for Q4 smartphone data. As IDC and Strategy Analytics (both who already released their Q4 data) didn't include any mention of Windows market share in smartphones, we were waiting for the 'official' number for this contest, to come from either or both of Canalys and Gartner. Canalys now gives Windows Phone unit sales in their fresh Q4 numbers - as .... (drumroll) ... (is it 10 Million as some pundits had been pontificating?) ... (drumroll) ... Canalys says.. its 5.1 million. (big sigh of disappointments in Microsoft alternate universe Lalaland..)

 5.1 million according to Canalys was 2.4% in Q4. But we are not taking their market share. We take all publsihed Windows numbers in millions, as an average, and then calculate what percent that is, from the larger population of totals reported for Q4, as no doubt all 4 analyst houses will give a total smartphone shipment number (Canalys now just said their calculation is 216.5 million). So the current average, as we await Gartner's number, is 2.3% for Windows Phone. So those whose guesses are close to 2.3% are now in the front seat, this number mathematically cannot any longer go more than a few tenths of a point of percentage up or down, if your guess is between say 1.9% and 2.6%, you are still ok, but for the others? Thanks for playing haha..

 

I gotta rush now, but yes, Nokia promised us the new Microsoft strategy would result in a 1-to-1 conversion of Nokia's existing Symbian base into Windows. Nokia had 29% at the time. The resulting Windows global market today (of which Nokia only has a slice) is about 2.3%. Wiping out 9 out of every 10 customers you had? That is a world record in failure.

And Windows? Microsoft would be the biggest loser in mobile, yes bigger than Palm, Motorola or RIM/Blackberry, were it not for the even bigger collapse done by Nokia. The two turkeys, Ballmer and Elop, now we know for a fact, marrying two turkeys will not give you an eagle. 

More coming soon, as I get better connected again next week... 

Comments

[Interested to know]

LOL. Those two turkeys who should be retired.

[daz]

The turkeys should be fired and roasted.

[Ballmerina]

Microsoft is going to destroy Dell the way it has destroyed Nokia, with the recent announcement of another 'strategic partnership'.

Here are some comments on Slashdot regarding Microsoft and Ballmer:

-----------------------------------------
---Microsoft's battle is not with Linux.

Rather, Microsoft's future battle is with the smartphones and the tablets and all other new wearable formfactors of computing.

Microsoft's OS is simply too large, too encumbering and too useless for devices that people will use in the future.

Their investment in Dell is that they hope Dell can come up with something that can sell

Microsoft tried their luck with Nokia, and Nokia is going nowhere fast

Microsoft tried to forge it by themselves by their "surface" thingy, but it tanked too

So now, it's Dell.

Ballmer is waging a shotgun approach of computing war --- trying anything and everything --- because the guy has no idea what to do now.

------------------

Actually it is not wrong to let a marketing guy to run a tech company, that is, if that marketing guy has REAL BRAIN

What had transpired in Microsoft is this, Bill Gates chose Steve Ballmer not because Mr. Ballmer has brain.

Bill Gates chose Ballmer because Ballmer is one helluva "YES MAN".

Anything and everything Bill Gates wanted to get done, Ballmer delivered.

That's not the way to lead a tech company.

A tech company needs a leader with a vision --- someone like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs --- someone with a vision that can see into the future.

Not Ballmer.

[Wayne Borean]

First, everyone thinks that Microsoft is Windows. It isn't.

Microsoft, like all companies, is a chameleon. Originally it specialized in dev tools. Operating systems were a later add-on. Now? Well, I suggest you read my analysis to find out what the company really is today, because it has changed. Again.

http://therealmadhatter.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/microsoft-death-watch-office-for-linux-rumor/

Enjoy.

Wayne

[Tester]

Interesting read. There's just one major caveat in the whole picture:

If Microsoft releases Office for Linux it will be the end of Windows as an operating system.

It would be a clear signal to other software makers that they need to, too. And this can't end well for Windows.

Office for iOS and Android are a different matter. With the utter failure of Windows Phone MS wouldn't compete with their pwn platform there.

But on desktop? No chance!

[foo]

@Tester "If Microsoft releases Office for Linux it will be the end of Windows as an operating system."

Microsoft *has* to release Office for Linux... or, better saying, Android.

Windows used to be 90% of the computers. But Android is the new Windows.

I don't think Microsoft will port Office to the Linux desktop, but it will certainly port to Android (which is a kind of Linux).

[Tester]

Precisely.

However...

>> Android (which is a kind of Linux).

No, from a developer's perspective Android is *not* Linux.

In terms of user interface coding they are two completely different animals - and it doesn't matter one bit that Android is based on Linux.

With GUI-heavy software like Office the code that's most easily shared between Desktop Linux and Android is the same code that's also easily shared with Windows.

And even if they did make mobile versions of Office, it's still no guarantee that it'll succeed. They are already too late if you ask me.

[Lasko]

Worth mentioning that XNA is now officially dead fo all supported platforms (XBox, Windows, Windows Phone). It will be maintained until 1st April 2014 and then retired completely, the same way XBox Live Indie Games will be dead as well on the 720.

Why? Because fuck you, dear developer, that's why.