I'm currently stuck in heavy travel and having limited connectivity. But now that I have a moment (they will call my flight shortly) - I wanted to let my readers and the 'contestants' know, that we have the first of the decisive data points having published. By contestants, I am referring to my Twitter contest over a year ago, to try to guess how Windows Phone will fare globally in the Q4 quarter of 2012. We had entries ranging from selling 0.4% market share to as high as 43.2%. The major industry analyst view at the time in late 2011 when this contest ran, was in the middle teens in terms of market share, so around 15% give or take. My view was that Windows would have less than half that. But yes, here is the full list of all contestants and their entries.
Canalys has published their numbers for Q4 smartphone data. As IDC and Strategy Analytics (both who already released their Q4 data) didn't include any mention of Windows market share in smartphones, we were waiting for the 'official' number for this contest, to come from either or both of Canalys and Gartner. Canalys now gives Windows Phone unit sales in their fresh Q4 numbers - as .... (drumroll) ... (is it 10 Million as some pundits had been pontificating?) ... (drumroll) ... Canalys says.. its 5.1 million. (big sigh of disappointments in Microsoft alternate universe Lalaland..)
5.1 million according to Canalys was 2.4% in Q4. But we are not taking their market share. We take all publsihed Windows numbers in millions, as an average, and then calculate what percent that is, from the larger population of totals reported for Q4, as no doubt all 4 analyst houses will give a total smartphone shipment number (Canalys now just said their calculation is 216.5 million). So the current average, as we await Gartner's number, is 2.3% for Windows Phone. So those whose guesses are close to 2.3% are now in the front seat, this number mathematically cannot any longer go more than a few tenths of a point of percentage up or down, if your guess is between say 1.9% and 2.6%, you are still ok, but for the others? Thanks for playing haha..
I gotta rush now, but yes, Nokia promised us the new Microsoft strategy would result in a 1-to-1 conversion of Nokia's existing Symbian base into Windows. Nokia had 29% at the time. The resulting Windows global market today (of which Nokia only has a slice) is about 2.3%. Wiping out 9 out of every 10 customers you had? That is a world record in failure.
And Windows? Microsoft would be the biggest loser in mobile, yes bigger than Palm, Motorola or RIM/Blackberry, were it not for the even bigger collapse done by Nokia. The two turkeys, Ballmer and Elop, now we know for a fact, marrying two turkeys will not give you an eagle.
More coming soon, as I get better connected again next week...