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February 12, 2013

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Nokia Misery in Single Pictures: Today part 8 in series: The Elop Strategy to Go Windows from Feb 11, 2011. At the 2 year anniversary, what do we now see?:

Comments

Cyan

> What is wrong with Nokia Board that they have not already fired this clown?

That, i believe, is the real question.
Nokia Board members are protecting themselves by putting their head in the sand, and pretending that all is right.

The simple fact that they can do it and remain on board, unpunished, is proof enough that this governance system does not work.
Such blatant colluding people should not only be removed of their charge, they should also pay for the consequences of their acts.

Sysad

Tomi, please, to avoid those blurry letters in your graphs, those "mists" and so on... please save your images in png format instead of jpg format.

Jpg format is for photos and alike, not for graphs like yours.

dies felices

Tomi, how do Lumia sales fit into the picture of all WP sales? I realise that this is out of the scope of this article but I think it would show a context for Elop's strategy which might even be able to be twisted into something favourable. Going further off topic, if I may. What would your strategy going forwards from today, be to right the sinking ship?

Peter Frandsen

You should add a graph showing how the market has expanded during the same 2 year periode (at least in smart phones, don't know if the feature phone market expanded or schrinked)... A conversion dollar for dollar (or unit for unit) is not a success if the market is groving rapidly (even though it may not be what Elop promised...)

zlutor

@dies felices: See MNB. There is a post about exactly this issue: http://mynokiablog.com/2013/02/11/nokia-dominating-windows-phone-with-78-marketshare-54-of-wp8-devices-have-received-portico/comment-page-1/#comment-767833

According to that 78% of total WP sales are from Nokia. I do not see it as a big thing - knowing that other manufacturers are not so active in this arena...

I really wish Nokia to be successful.

Telling the truth I do not really care what OS/'ecosystem' they use if devices are capable of doing all the things customers demand for, UI is easy to use, development environment is not locked to that single 'ecosystem'...

I do not know how WP fulfills those criteria... ;-)

Well WP8 is quite OK as OS - especially if Digia ports Qt/QML for it. Unfortunately it requires some assist from M$ or some extra work due to lack of OpenGL support...

RyanZA

@zlutor

WP8 is most definitely not OK as an OS. It's plain awful and is very undesired by consumers - possibly even hated. MS is also never going to assist Qt or any other open technology, especially OpenGL. MS is fighting against OpenGL with their DirectX very heavily at present on both Xbox and PC - and losing.

zlutor

@RyanZA: form my(!) point of view, WP8 is quite OK as OS - especially if you compare it with WP7.x...
Metro UI - well, that is an other story. Somebody might loves it... :-)

WP8 is not (so) crippled, there is support for most customer demands:
- Blootooth
- microSD
- different SoCs
- different Screen resolution
- etc.

So, in theory nothing prevents Nokia to build great devices with this. It is significant improvement compared to WP7.x.
We will see whether it will be 'too little, too late' or some savior...

About OpenGL and M$. In fact they support it in desktop Windows. Most probably it is because of the huge legacy code base but anyway. Support is support. They have DirectX there and still...

Of course, they do not want to support Open GL (ES in fact) in Windows Phone OSs because it would easily open up developer lock-in. No single sane developer would develop in C# if they can use Qt/QML combo there. We, developers, all love 'develop-once-sell-many-times', don't we?

Anyway, there is some hope: http://qt-project.org/doc/qt-5.0/qtdoc/requirements-win.html
That's what I referred as 'extra work': http://qt-project.org/wiki/Qt-5-on-Windows-8-and-Metro-UI

Lasko

@ExNokian

So Elop did *not* want to transition the majority of customers and revenue from Symbian to Windows Phone in the first place? So the plan was to lose the majority of customers and revenue during the transition on purpose?

I'm quite sorry, but your 'but he didn't say he wanted to transition 1:1, he just illustrated the future' argument is just absurd. What is the purpose of switching the core business and risking the cash cow if *not* doing so for a brighter future, ie. transition rate > 1:1.

Of course Elop planned that every Symbian customer becomes a Windows Phone customer. That's what he said with this graphic. That's what he filed to the SEC.

zlutor

@ExNokian: we can play with the words trying to figure out who mean what but the fact is Nokia performed a colossal collapse. I hope we all can agree on this transition could have been managed better most probably...

Current figures of Nokia are just simple horrifying.
I can hope only it will improve - sooner is better.
Wishful thinking - I hope not...

Tester

@zlutor:

>> Of course, they do not want to support Open GL (ES in fact) in Windows Phone OSs because it would easily open up developer lock-in.

And this is something I don't get. What does MS think to gain here? They are the minority platform, they can't dictate terms to developers. They should do anything they can to attract mobile developers to also support their platform. Instead they went out of their way to do everything differently, to keep developers away. Why support one more low percentage platform if yo have to do the same amount of work for it than for all the rest combined?
So it not only would have prevented developer lock-in, it also would have prevented developer lock-out - and with the current situation that part is a lot more crucial.

>> No single sane developer would develop in C# if they can use Qt/QML combo there. We, developers, all love 'develop-once-sell-many-times', don't we?

Indeed - which is why WP will always be behind, unless MS bribes the developers and essentially finances all development themselves.

@ExNokian: All nice and well, but the fact remains that it was not part of the plan to crash and burn Symbian. They would have needed to let it fade away gracefully so that it can be replaced seamlessly later.
That's how Blackberry did it. Yes, they also tumbled toward irrelevance but they didn't actively destroy everything they had. And in my opinion, despite having made bad mistakes, are now in a better position than Nokia. They also have a new OS, but one that isn't hated, one that's more in line with the rest of the available offerings and that's much easier to do multi-platform development on with the other systems. In other words: much more promising app ecosystem than Windows.

The thing is, Nokia themselves knew the risks, everybody with a shred of knowledge and common sense promised an utter failure right back in February 2011. There's absolutely no denying: It was a suicidal strategy from the very beginning that should have never been implelented - unless some other interests that don't benefit Nokia were the driving motivation.

alvi

> What is wrong with Nokia Board that they have not already fired this clown?

As Cyan already points out, that's the big question. There is way too much focus on Elop here. Quite frankly, I believe at this point that Mr. Elop is just doing the job he was hired to do, and he does it quite well (that is, doing an all-in on WP and eloquently defending this failed strategy).

There is no question in my mind, if this was really Elop's strategy, considering these results after 2 years, he'd be a goner by now. Someone's backing him big time. Which must be the board of directors.

zlutor

@Tester: "And this is something I don't get. What does MS think to gain here? They are the minority platform, they can't dictate terms to developers"

They may think in 'ecosystem' - and they can be proven right to some extent: if it really turns out to be a working way to develop once and deploy to desktop W8, Xbox and WP8 phones...

They believe they are the king of desktops, kind of king of consoles (XBox) they hope it works in WP, to...

or I do not know...

Fred_Sch.

@alvi - good point. I also believe more and more that someone big is backing him. But what does Nokia want to do? If they fired Elop, they would officially admit that WP has been a big failure - Nokia would be left with NOTHING. It seems Nokia is on a highway without exits - but hopefully no dead-end!

Generally it seems that Nokia lives is some kind of dream world. Everyone around Nokia realizes that things go wrong, Nokia on the other hand sees everything positively. Bad sales numbers are turned into positive ones, sales-tricks are used with the hole Amazon.com story etc... But many analysts (people, journals - economical and IT ones) see the real situation.

Or have a look at Nokia Conversations (their official blog). Those Nokia bloggers stubbornly write their happy-colorful Lumia posts, while the reactions (comments) are surprisingly often negative - even now, where Nokia Conversations pretty much "banned" all the old users by not talking anymore about Harmattan or Symbian.

If you read Nokia's publicity one would think, Lumia would be a huge success. It isn't. I live in Europe but am often in the US. Yes people know about those colorful Nokia phones, but do they own them? No. It's a rarity to see a Lumia device in most countries and especially in the US, a huge rarity to see it in stores (even some AT&T stores don't display them, I checked almost all those stores I saw in 2 different states). What surprised me is, that HTC devices are shown much more in the US and are advertised like the phone belonging to the Surface tablet (at least by Microsoft itself). Now Huawei even launched a Lumia-copy for Africa in cooperation with Microsoft. Didn't Africa use to be a great Nokia market for Symbian phones? Wasn't it an aim of Nokia to be present there?

So the hole story stinks badly. Nokia is like a sinking ship with a captain who says "all is fine" as long as his head is over water. Sad but true. I don't think that abandoning the WP strategy would all the sudden rescue Nokia, it's to hope that Microsoft finally releases a decent smartphone OS! Everyone hoped it would be with Windows 8, but we have the prove now that it wasn't.

dskov

Can't the reason for Elop not being replaced be that it's hard to find anyone trustworthy who thinks he/she can turn around Nokia?

Personally I think the only way forward now is to also start producing smartphones with android. Perhaps even meego.

Brock

@Tomi

the gartner numbers are out. Here they are

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2335616

Spawn

@Fred_Sch

> But what does Nokia want to do? If they fired Elop, they would officially admit that WP has been a big failure - Nokia would be left with NOTHING. It seems Nokia is on a highway without exits

And that's why the first thing Elop did was to burn all alternate strategies, all bridges, all exist Nokia had. He KNEW this will get them in line in the future too. No, that Elop is not stupid.

> Microsoft

For them Noka failed to deliver two times. Now Nokia needs to pay 250m each quarter anyways, they are going to stay and do not have anything from interest to offer to Microsoft any longer.

Sure is Microsoft looking at better partners and at this time everything but Nokia is an option.

> I don't think that abandoning the WP strategy would all the sudden rescue Nokia

Vertu was taking only some weeks to switch from Symbian to Android. Granted Nokia has not much money and talent left but they could still do within weeks. Its the only option left for them to grow again.

Why Nokia still does not even try Android while keeping
umia running is beyond illogical. Even crashing HTC was able to and now they have two options AND are Microsoft exclusive flagship partners!

The contracts Elop signed may the reason why Nokia cannot even if they would like to. Nokia may forced to pay back some billion $ to Microsoft if they do. I would bet on such a condition in the contracts.

dies felices

@zlutor

My point is not how much market share in WP Nokia has but to see overall WP sales over time. So we can see how the 'Burning Platform' memo impacted WP sales, the market share of WP with reference to the whole market and whether or not that share is rising or falling and within that segment the Lumias performance.

I agree with @alvi that the Nokia Board must be backing him and to some extent asserting direction. Even as CEO, I imagine it must be nearly impossible to drive an organisation in the opposite direction to that desired by the board.

vladkr

@Tomi :

In the cost of Elop's failure (about 40G Euros), you didn't include : the sale/loss of patents, of factories, resale value losses.

Anyway, I don't think Elop give a damn of Nokia's potential success; this guy built his career and wealth with failures. He's there just to make huge money for himself and friends (see the demonstration I already made in past comments).

If that was something else, how would you explain that Nokia could deliver only 30K Lumia 920T to China Mobile, which ordered a "royal" 90K units (to be compared to its 700M customer base)?

zlutor

@Tomi: related to Gartner's numbers: they indicated "Others 713.1" in the Smartphone section - what does 'others' mean here?
Meego? Still?
What else?

What does "Microsoft" includes? WinCE+WP7.x+WP8 all together?

geektech

I wonder why mr. Elop dont sell Maemo-MeeGo OS? Nokia is in deep Sh*t right now, or is that they are planning to use it/them later? Or M$ want those Oses away from the market? Those are easily a desktop remplacement, better that anything else out there;
WP8? i dont think it going to get any better traction from now on, they going to sell a little better any new device release but i not sustainable for Nokia.

EmmanuelM

Unhappy 920 french customers are bashing Nokia France on its facebook page...

A lots of problems apparently...

elop

bluestacks player allows all android apps on windows 8. compatibility with windows phone 8 and windows blue is almost available. tomi, this change opens up the apps market several years early.

So Vatar

Just to honor and recognize, here are the current members of Nokia's board:

Risto Siilasmaa (Chairman) - Board member since 2008, Chairman since 2012
Dame Marjorie Scardino (Vice Chairman)- Board member since 2001, VC since 2007
Bruce Brown - Member since 2012
Stephen Elop - Board Member since 2011
Henning Kagermann - Board Member since 2007
Jouko Karvinen - Board Member since 2011
Helge Lund - Board Member since 2011
Isabel Marey-Semper - Board Member since 2009
Mårten Mickos - Board Member since 2012
Elizabeth Nelson - Board Member since 2012
Kari Stadigh - Board Member since 2011

I am too lazy to look up the cast of former board members, the ones that left in the last few years.
I hope that history will do the members of Nokia's board justice and give them their rightful earned place having overseen one of the largest blunders in the history of public corporations.

And I am sure there are other players hiding in the dark, but without the board's cooperation they would have never succeeded destroying a once innovative and profitable European company.


Interested to know

Why is it that Microsoft people (including ex-MS Elop) feel their products can't co-exist with any non-Microsoft technology? What possesses a CEO to publicly denigrate his company's own products?

Lumia and Windows Phone 7 had no realistic chance in the market regardless but Elop really shot Nokia in the foot when killed Symbian. He could had taken all the billions of profits generated by Symbian and used them to prop up the Lumia disaster. Instead he killed the Nokia's goose that laid golden eggs.

Interested to know

Given Nokia's terrible fall, Elop should at least be removed from the board so there can be some small semblance of oversight.

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