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« Nokia Misery in Single Pictures: Today part 8 in series: The Elop Strategy to Go Windows from Feb 11, 2011. At the 2 year anniversary, what do we now see? | Main | Winners in the 'Guess Windows Phone Market Share in Q4 of 2012' contest from November 2011 »

February 13, 2013

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Bassmonkey

Making an arbitrary distinction of what a smartphone is, is something only analysts and fan boys care about. It's like in the auto industry where SUVs where classified as truck sales and not compared against "cars" even though consumers where buying SUVs to replace cars. Whether or not Asha phones are smart phones, they compete with low end Android phones for consumer dollars. It's a sound business strategy and something Samsung has recently re-engergized with their new Rex line of touch "smart feature phones".

Vitaly

Hi, Tomi! Excellent analysis and accurate prediction!
And now, what we see as a main result of Elop Effect?
Who got all the power of excellence in the smartphone market? Samsung!
Who moved in partnership with Intel to develop a new advanced smartphone OS? Samsung also!
Not devoid of meaning suggestion that Elop is a Trojan horse from Samsung! Ha-Ha - it is a world sensation!
Apologize for my English.

Moblin+Maemo=MeeGo

This follows the familiar pattern of Apple hype and corporate propaganda.

Apple's value is bombing -- for clear reasons which are readily apparent to investors and everybody else.

E.g. Apple's financial results are overwhelmingly dominated by, and dependent on, one product: iOS. But iOS is very old news, now, and consumer trends are consistent with a growing realization that there are superior products available at an equal and often lower price.

E.g. Apple is losing market share in by far their most important segment, mobile, which defines the company and it's success in recent year. And again, their quarterly results are dominated by mobile.

E.g. Apple is not an essential aspect of Apple products. Other companies like Samsung make their components -- all the cleverest stuff is from outside Apple. All Apple does is essentially put a shiny case on it and stamp on their designer-label before selling it to you.

E.g. Apple's success was achieved under Steve Jobs. He is now gone forever, and it is already abundantly clear that Apple is not the same company without him. Apple is no longer perceived as cool, except among the last remaining die-hard supporters comprising middle-aged men and women, Generation X and older Millennials. Ever since Jobs went, Apple has been making one serious mistake after another.

E.g. Apple is consistently the most expensive way to buy a product or service, from MP3 files and MP3 players with iTunes to tablets with iPad. Like its stock, Apple has been over-rated and over-valued, and a correction is long overdue.

E.g. Apple is stuck in the naughties, locked in a work-out pattern of releasing slightly upgraded versions of the same old products. Early fears that Apple has nothing more to offer the world are proving justified. Tech is moving on, leaving Apple behind. The company is now just ticking over -- it's boring to watch.

E.g. Apple engaged in unpopular and immoral practices, including avoiding $1 BILLION tax per week in the US alone, failing to create jobs domestically or even in its most important market territories, unacceptable conditions for off-shore factory workers, to anti-competitive practices, to patent trolling, etc, etc.

E.g. Apple has a track record as a fringe player. After all these years, Mac has still barely scraped past 5% market share against Windows.

Hence, recent estimates value Apple at a mere $200 share:

http://blogs.reuters.com/bethany-mclean/2013/02/06/should-apple-be-a-200-stock/

Spawn

@RyanZA

> For all that, I'd still rather have an S40 phone over a Windows Phone. So maybe S40 is smarter than WP! ;)

WP at least qualifies for the high price point and the high- and medium segments. So, it tries to compete in the profitable segments (and fails) and tries to bring in big money (and fails).

@Bassmonkey

> arbitrary distinction of what a smartphone is, is something only analysts and fan boys care about

And those business people who try to get a part of the fat profit smartphone segment cake.

> Whether or not Asha phones are smart phones, they compete with low end Android phones for consumer dollars

They not did in 2012 since the price gap was still huge but its coming, very soon. Then they have to. So, what's your argument that somebody would prefer a S40 over a Android if there is no price difference any longer? Why should S40 be able to win Android if not even S60 was able to (according to Elop himself) while S60 had all S40 still misses. Ecosystem, huge market share in the smartphone segment, great development tools (Qt, QtCreator), big partners and so on.

Do you really think S40 can fight Android off? With a company like ElopNokia? A company that not only struggles to survive but also does not invest into S40 at all cause WP is it. A company that doesn't have any R&D any longer. A company who has a leader that fails horrible on anything. Even when S40 could make it, could it happen with Elop? No way. Its done already like Meltimi, the S40 successor, was done by him month before release.

Stevan Gvozdenović

well for sure the board is in collusion else why would they let elop do all of this?! Actually elop does an excellent job if we only take into account that his job is not to do a good for Nokia but to do worst he can so that the company he actually works for(microsoft if someone isn't informed) can buy Nokia for as few dollars as they can. It's very simple and it has been done a zillion times especially by american companies and while I can understand how they do it in Eastern Europe with all the corrupt politicians I am surprised that this goes unnoticed in Finland...

cycnus

testaa

jump

Dear Tomi, thanks for another in-depth post. Today about Tizen as you do seem to have deeper knowledge about mismanagement at Nokia but not at Samsung.

Tizen isn't as Open Source as you think, besides false declarations it also drops EFL to merge with Bada - yes, plain old featurephone OS once kicked out of the USA.

More facts at http://slashdot.org/submission/2505829/tizen-not-as-open-source-drops-efl-to-merge-with-bada

top7mobileapps

Two upcoming device of nokia
http://mobileupdate24.blogspot.com/2013/03/nokia-eos-could-sport-decadent-chassis.html

Chabmanu

Where can i find details about the Phones classment ?
For example, the stat of Samsung S3, compare to the Nexus 4, compare to the XPeria Z, etc. ?

zhangbingyu

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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