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« Nokia Misery in Single Pictures: Today part 8 in series: The Elop Strategy to Go Windows from Feb 11, 2011. At the 2 year anniversary, what do we now see? | Main | Winners in the 'Guess Windows Phone Market Share in Q4 of 2012' contest from November 2011 »

February 13, 2013

Comments

Mikko

@cycnus
"The real issue is not what define smartphoneOS, but Elop trying to manipulate the public."

Reporting Asha numbers together with smartphones was obviously a very lame attempt at making the numbers look slightly less disastrous, no argument there. I don't know whether that should be blamed on Elop personally. Nokia did report their results by division, too, and there the Asha line is clearly part of "Mobile Phone", not "Smart Devices".

@winter
" I would pick iPhone 2 as a cut-off."

I think you mean iPhone 3G. There was no iPhone 2.

Amir

(I'm reposting this from another article, I mistakenly posted there)

a short intro: recently I stumbled across this blog and I've been reading with my breath held back.
Tomi, thank you for writing all this and verbalizing all that was obvious even to the layman who bothered to look.

I am not from same background like most of you guys, not working with mobile industry, and I have limited business experience in terms of business development strategies and all that jazz. I am just a simple user (power user though). Over the years I had multiple Nokia phones, starting with a dream - 9100 and followed by rest of Communicator line units up to E90.

My first real disappointment with Nokia was exactly this last mentioned phone - E90. Let me refresh your memory - that was the time Nokia killed S80 UI on Symbian (remember S80?). And why? To cut cost being on unified S60 smartphone platform. What made Nokia great is in one word: innovation and simplicity. Both hardware and software wise. So, in time of iPhone dawn they decided to drop most advanced smartphone platform for one that was flawed even at that time (2007). Yes - S60 was always a compromise when we speak of smartphone, don't you agree? My hopes got higher with Maemo and then MeeGo but we all know how that ended. My point being that Nokia started to loose when they dropped the core thing that made them great - innovation (no matter the profit). The rest is history.

And instead of turning back to what they did best Nokia made a series of "business" decisions. Tomi can talk about those much more eloquent then myself.

Nokia still has a chance (but a slim one as time goes by). If they return to innovation and simplicity they can start their growth again and get back to the top among the big players. Bot not with WP (how innovative and simple can Windows be?) and Elop. And not without own UI.

Tomi - all the best!

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the comments..

Note, IDC came with revised numbers a day after I posted this blog. They revised their Q4 and full year 2012 numbers upwards. I have recalculated the averages and the market shares accordingly, all numbers in this blog now reflect the later revised IDC numbers, not their original published numbers..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Spawn

S40 a smartphone?

Lets ask Elop! His burning Nokia memo gives his own view on that and since its Elop stating against industry-consence that S40 is suddenly a Smartphone now, it makes sense to apply his own definition on him.

http://blogs.wsj.com/tech-europe/2011/02/09/full-text-nokia-ceo-stephen-elops-burning-platform-memo/

1. ecosystem

What app ecosystem does S40 offer? None!

2. attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers

Close to no apps cause no developers, j2me is an alien, very limited possibilities, close to no app-revenue.

3. high-/mid end

Availble at high-end or mid-end with high price. Low-end optional.

4. innovative

Not fall behind in features to smartphone competition. At least offer something similar, ideally something competition does not have. By no means years behind.

5. future proven

OS and app-story needs to be an easy environment to develop to meet the continuously expanding consumer requirements. That means without much effort run on eg other form factors like tablet/tv/home-entertainment/etc, hardware, additional pheripery, flexible plugin concept, ...

6. Analyst-rating and brand-preference.

How to analyst see your future? How well is your brand received means sold units compared to competition and with forecast in future, growth-perspective, etc.

Result:

In all those categories Elop named in his burning Nokia memo as reason why Nokia's S60 Symbian is burning, the S40 falls flat. Not in one single of them S40 scores points.

Serious, if you remove the priece-point of Asha and place it direct in competition to iPhone and Galaxy S3 how much customers would buy the S40? And that's the point. Smartphone is profiable high- and mid-end. Its very the big money and the future is. S40 just isn't competative and so, per Elop definition, is not a smartphone. Not a smartphone that could gain anything once the price-point is gone and we are moving there. Android is going low-end morr and more and just a matter of time a low-end iPhone becomes available. Once that happened we are able to verify S40 is not a smartphone but a featurephone and featurephones are going to be gone.

RyanZA

@Spawn

For all that, I'd still rather have an S40 phone over a Windows Phone. So maybe S40 is smarter than WP! ;)

Vitaly

Hi, Tomi! Excellent analysis and accurate prediction!
And now, what we see as a main result of Elop Effect?
Who got all the power of excellence in the smartphone market? Samsung!
Who moved in partnership with Intel to develop a new advanced smartphone OS? Samsung also!
Not devoid of meaning suggestion that Elop is a Trojan horse from Samsung! Ha-Ha - it is a world sensation!
Apologize for my English.

Moblin+Maemo=MeeGo

This follows the familiar pattern of Apple hype and corporate propaganda.

Apple's value is bombing -- for clear reasons which are readily apparent to investors and everybody else.

E.g. Apple's financial results are overwhelmingly dominated by, and dependent on, one product: iOS. But iOS is very old news, now, and consumer trends are consistent with a growing realization that there are superior products available at an equal and often lower price.

E.g. Apple is losing market share in by far their most important segment, mobile, which defines the company and it's success in recent year. And again, their quarterly results are dominated by mobile.

E.g. Apple is not an essential aspect of Apple products. Other companies like Samsung make their components -- all the cleverest stuff is from outside Apple. All Apple does is essentially put a shiny case on it and stamp on their designer-label before selling it to you.

E.g. Apple's success was achieved under Steve Jobs. He is now gone forever, and it is already abundantly clear that Apple is not the same company without him. Apple is no longer perceived as cool, except among the last remaining die-hard supporters comprising middle-aged men and women, Generation X and older Millennials. Ever since Jobs went, Apple has been making one serious mistake after another.

E.g. Apple is consistently the most expensive way to buy a product or service, from MP3 files and MP3 players with iTunes to tablets with iPad. Like its stock, Apple has been over-rated and over-valued, and a correction is long overdue.

E.g. Apple is stuck in the naughties, locked in a work-out pattern of releasing slightly upgraded versions of the same old products. Early fears that Apple has nothing more to offer the world are proving justified. Tech is moving on, leaving Apple behind. The company is now just ticking over -- it's boring to watch.

E.g. Apple engaged in unpopular and immoral practices, including avoiding $1 BILLION tax per week in the US alone, failing to create jobs domestically or even in its most important market territories, unacceptable conditions for off-shore factory workers, to anti-competitive practices, to patent trolling, etc, etc.

E.g. Apple has a track record as a fringe player. After all these years, Mac has still barely scraped past 5% market share against Windows.

Hence, recent estimates value Apple at a mere $200 share:

http://blogs.reuters.com/bethany-mclean/2013/02/06/should-apple-be-a-200-stock/

Spawn

@RyanZA

> For all that, I'd still rather have an S40 phone over a Windows Phone. So maybe S40 is smarter than WP! ;)

WP at least qualifies for the high price point and the high- and medium segments. So, it tries to compete in the profitable segments (and fails) and tries to bring in big money (and fails).

@Bassmonkey

> arbitrary distinction of what a smartphone is, is something only analysts and fan boys care about

And those business people who try to get a part of the fat profit smartphone segment cake.

> Whether or not Asha phones are smart phones, they compete with low end Android phones for consumer dollars

They not did in 2012 since the price gap was still huge but its coming, very soon. Then they have to. So, what's your argument that somebody would prefer a S40 over a Android if there is no price difference any longer? Why should S40 be able to win Android if not even S60 was able to (according to Elop himself) while S60 had all S40 still misses. Ecosystem, huge market share in the smartphone segment, great development tools (Qt, QtCreator), big partners and so on.

Do you really think S40 can fight Android off? With a company like ElopNokia? A company that not only struggles to survive but also does not invest into S40 at all cause WP is it. A company that doesn't have any R&D any longer. A company who has a leader that fails horrible on anything. Even when S40 could make it, could it happen with Elop? No way. Its done already like Meltimi, the S40 successor, was done by him month before release.

test

dddd

Stevan Gvozdenović

well for sure the board is in collusion else why would they let elop do all of this?! Actually elop does an excellent job if we only take into account that his job is not to do a good for Nokia but to do worst he can so that the company he actually works for(microsoft if someone isn't informed) can buy Nokia for as few dollars as they can. It's very simple and it has been done a zillion times especially by american companies and while I can understand how they do it in Eastern Europe with all the corrupt politicians I am surprised that this goes unnoticed in Finland...

cycnus

testaa

jump

Dear Tomi, thanks for another in-depth post. Today about Tizen as you do seem to have deeper knowledge about mismanagement at Nokia but not at Samsung.

Tizen isn't as Open Source as you think, besides false declarations it also drops EFL to merge with Bada - yes, plain old featurephone OS once kicked out of the USA.

More facts at http://slashdot.org/submission/2505829/tizen-not-as-open-source-drops-efl-to-merge-with-bada

top7mobileapps

Two upcoming device of nokia
http://mobileupdate24.blogspot.com/2013/03/nokia-eos-could-sport-decadent-chassis.html

Chabmanu

Where can i find details about the Phones classment ?
For example, the stat of Samsung S3, compare to the Nexus 4, compare to the XPeria Z, etc. ?

zhangbingyu

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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