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« Nokia Misery in Single Pictures: Today part 8 in series: The Elop Strategy to Go Windows from Feb 11, 2011. At the 2 year anniversary, what do we now see? | Main | Winners in the 'Guess Windows Phone Market Share in Q4 of 2012' contest from November 2011 »

February 13, 2013

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Comments

RC

Hi Tomi,
Seems now Nokia list S40 as smartphone as well.
is that also included in the data?

glonq

A small correction: there was no Windows Phone 6. It was "Windows Mobile" up until 6.5, then it became Windows Phone 7.

Stephen

Q: Does this data include TECNO & all the cheap MediaTek-powered Android phones sold in the developing markets?

Tomi T Ahonen

RC - no, of course not, S40 is not a smartphone, no matter how much Elop cries and demands they be counted

glonq - thanks

Stephen - Stephen, of course, these are global numbers all Mediatek Android based smartphones are included.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cycnus

Tomi,

I was wondering if you know Micromax, I heard they have a successful android lineup in India

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi cygnus

Yes, Micromax is a big handset player in India but the India smartphone market is still in its early stages so without vast international sales, they won't register in the Top 20 yet.. but am monitoring them, they can become big as India smartphone sales pick up, to do something similar to what Lenovo did almost exclusively inside China...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Interested to know

Very informative.

Scary to see how badly Windows is doing versus how Microsoft and Nokia pretend it's doing in public. Dirty tricks, smoke and mirrors, lies, damned lies, and statistics - nothing is going to save Windows Phone.

zlutor

@Tomi: what makes an OS/phone 'smart' in mobile domain?

I also do not like the tricks NOkia is trying to make with S40 - actually part of it, Full-Touch Ashas - to be counted as 'smartphone like' but in fact they
- can be customized
- apps are available
- email, internet available
- social networks can be reached
- etc.

So, at the end of the day, they could be categorized smart - or not?

Why if latter one?

pingpong

@zlutor
Series 40 can run Java Apps for years (like Symbian can/could- bridging the developer ecosystems of Series40 and Symbian to some extend)- never anybody wasted a thought on Series 40 Phones being smartphones. The only new thing on Asha full touch compared to Touch&Type Series 40 is "full touch". btw: Samsungs Star Series phones are "full touch" but not considered smartphones.

zlutor

@pingpong: I know they are j2me capable - but what makes a phone 'smart' then if not all(!) the things I mentioned above? Seriously! Running java app is just one thing - even Nokia 110 is capable of doing it...

We all use the term 'smartphone' but do we know what does it really mean?

chithanh

@glonq
When Microsoft launched Windows Phone 7, they renamed Windows Mobile 6.5 to Windows Phone 6.5.

@zlutor
Actually, the S40 Internet capabilities are not so smart. The phone is a dumb terminal which displays web pages that were preprocessed and simplified on Nokia servers.

There has been some controversy around the fact that Nokia acted as man-in-the-middle even for SSL(https) connections, as all passwords, banking details etc. were passing through their server farm in clear text. After being called out in public for it, they stopped decrypting user traffic (but still route it through their servers).

vladkr

Tomi,

There is one fact you're wrong about ; Elop is not in panic, why would he ?
He still earns between 5M and 10M a year despite poor results, and no-one is about to fire him.

His salary is only the visible part of the iceberg as he can use it for some trading game :

Soon, there will be the MWC and some teasing (EOS for example) to excite traders, then there will be the annual general meeting, where Nokia is about to issue shares, which will make its value dive again - that's exactly what happened to Ericsson before becoming SE - then again some teasing... he might triple his salary, like last year.

daz

What makes a smartphone, good question, I think one feature that Asha series are missing is GPS and good performance. Possibly it's also missing other sensors (accelerometer, gyroscope, compass)

Sander van der Wal

The argument that only smartphone market share is important does not fly.

If its OS is also powering other devices, and if the apps running will be able to work on all devices, then that OS is much more important than the smartphone figures suggest. It also means that the ranking of the OS'es doesn't mean much. The fate of the OS is not decided in just the smartphone market.

And finally, both Android and iOS are used as tablet OS'es. And all the other wish they had a tablet to power. So there is no disadvantage for any of the OS'es not to have the tablet category taken into account.

Tleilaxu Mentat

crApple's success is mostly undeserved, facilitated mostly by the biased US mainstream tech media practicing "economic jingoism" and acting like a mindless echo chamber regurgitating the same reality distortion field marketing claptrap and then further led on by bandwagoneering, carpetbagging stock market analysts which have it in their financial interest to "pump&dump" crApple stock. Well, the lies & propaganda would soon catch up to them:

http://readwrite.com/2013/02/11/whos-manipulating-apple-stock-with-this-iwatch-story

http://www.businessinsider.com/wsj-apple-is-quietly-sending-the-press-more-reports-2013-2

Mikko

I guess one criterion to classify phones by would be true multitasking. I don't mean being able to play music in the background, but actually being able to run arbitrary multiple apps at the same time and switch between them. Nokia S40 is clearly not able to do this, and it's a major limitation.

Tleilaxu Mentat

Certain websites seem eager to pass on Apple propaganda while suspending their usual powers of journalistic scrutiny which seem reserved only for Apple's rivals (not including Google).

Here, we certainly have another classic Apple stock-manipulation rumor, desperately trying to decelerate the continuing decline in Apple stock which has already wiped hundreds of billions of dollars off the value of the company.

Hence also the desperate cries of "we're not doomed" from Apple's propaganda machine, now stuck in a pathological overdrive:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/apple-said-to-have-team-developing-wristwatch-computer.html

cycnus

@Miko

The real issue is not what define smartphoneOS, but Elop trying to manipulate the public. Elop were trying to make Lumia seems very successful.

Winter

@Miko
"I guess one criterion to classify phones by would be true multitasking."

Actually, I do not think there is much point in trying to come up with a real definition.

If you look at word-use, a Smartphone is simply a phone the can do what the original iPhone 1 or 2 could do. I would pick iPhone 2 as a cut-off. But that is personal taste.

Obviously, the expectations increase with time. It questionable whether the iPhone 1 would still be considered "powerful".

Tester

The first iPhone couldn't even install apps. It was even more useless than a featurephone of the same time.

I personally classify a smartphone as a device that is capable of installing and running applications that have full access to the device's native user interface.

This would rule out everything using J2ME as it programming platform but conveniently include all systems that are generally considered 'smart' today.

So, no iPhone1, clearly, but also no S40.

Mikko

@cycnus
"The real issue is not what define smartphoneOS, but Elop trying to manipulate the public."

Reporting Asha numbers together with smartphones was obviously a very lame attempt at making the numbers look slightly less disastrous, no argument there. I don't know whether that should be blamed on Elop personally. Nokia did report their results by division, too, and there the Asha line is clearly part of "Mobile Phone", not "Smart Devices".

@winter
" I would pick iPhone 2 as a cut-off."

I think you mean iPhone 3G. There was no iPhone 2.

Amir

(I'm reposting this from another article, I mistakenly posted there)

a short intro: recently I stumbled across this blog and I've been reading with my breath held back.
Tomi, thank you for writing all this and verbalizing all that was obvious even to the layman who bothered to look.

I am not from same background like most of you guys, not working with mobile industry, and I have limited business experience in terms of business development strategies and all that jazz. I am just a simple user (power user though). Over the years I had multiple Nokia phones, starting with a dream - 9100 and followed by rest of Communicator line units up to E90.

My first real disappointment with Nokia was exactly this last mentioned phone - E90. Let me refresh your memory - that was the time Nokia killed S80 UI on Symbian (remember S80?). And why? To cut cost being on unified S60 smartphone platform. What made Nokia great is in one word: innovation and simplicity. Both hardware and software wise. So, in time of iPhone dawn they decided to drop most advanced smartphone platform for one that was flawed even at that time (2007). Yes - S60 was always a compromise when we speak of smartphone, don't you agree? My hopes got higher with Maemo and then MeeGo but we all know how that ended. My point being that Nokia started to loose when they dropped the core thing that made them great - innovation (no matter the profit). The rest is history.

And instead of turning back to what they did best Nokia made a series of "business" decisions. Tomi can talk about those much more eloquent then myself.

Nokia still has a chance (but a slim one as time goes by). If they return to innovation and simplicity they can start their growth again and get back to the top among the big players. Bot not with WP (how innovative and simple can Windows be?) and Elop. And not without own UI.

Tomi - all the best!

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in the comments..

Note, IDC came with revised numbers a day after I posted this blog. They revised their Q4 and full year 2012 numbers upwards. I have recalculated the averages and the market shares accordingly, all numbers in this blog now reflect the later revised IDC numbers, not their original published numbers..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Spawn

S40 a smartphone?

Lets ask Elop! His burning Nokia memo gives his own view on that and since its Elop stating against industry-consence that S40 is suddenly a Smartphone now, it makes sense to apply his own definition on him.

http://blogs.wsj.com/tech-europe/2011/02/09/full-text-nokia-ceo-stephen-elops-burning-platform-memo/

1. ecosystem

What app ecosystem does S40 offer? None!

2. attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers

Close to no apps cause no developers, j2me is an alien, very limited possibilities, close to no app-revenue.

3. high-/mid end

Availble at high-end or mid-end with high price. Low-end optional.

4. innovative

Not fall behind in features to smartphone competition. At least offer something similar, ideally something competition does not have. By no means years behind.

5. future proven

OS and app-story needs to be an easy environment to develop to meet the continuously expanding consumer requirements. That means without much effort run on eg other form factors like tablet/tv/home-entertainment/etc, hardware, additional pheripery, flexible plugin concept, ...

6. Analyst-rating and brand-preference.

How to analyst see your future? How well is your brand received means sold units compared to competition and with forecast in future, growth-perspective, etc.

Result:

In all those categories Elop named in his burning Nokia memo as reason why Nokia's S60 Symbian is burning, the S40 falls flat. Not in one single of them S40 scores points.

Serious, if you remove the priece-point of Asha and place it direct in competition to iPhone and Galaxy S3 how much customers would buy the S40? And that's the point. Smartphone is profiable high- and mid-end. Its very the big money and the future is. S40 just isn't competative and so, per Elop definition, is not a smartphone. Not a smartphone that could gain anything once the price-point is gone and we are moving there. Android is going low-end morr and more and just a matter of time a low-end iPhone becomes available. Once that happened we are able to verify S40 is not a smartphone but a featurephone and featurephones are going to be gone.

RyanZA

@Spawn

For all that, I'd still rather have an S40 phone over a Windows Phone. So maybe S40 is smarter than WP! ;)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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