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« The Seven Biggest Collapses in Mobile Handset or Smartphone History - this is part 3 in the Nokia Disaster analysis series | Main | The Engagement Marketing Primer for 2013 - E Equals M 2 C - Engagement Equals Mobile To Community - Or how to get 30% response rates with your next campaigns »

January 09, 2013

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AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

That Elop comment about Android should be regarded as noise. Elop never said he was considering Android, only a generic answer which basically was "no comment". In real life as long Elop is CEO of Nokia, they will never adopt Android because that would be a hostile action against Microsoft.

Now, the goal for Microsoft is to secure the valuable assets in Nokia as Windows Phone has already failed. Well, at least they killed two potential competing OSes at least. Microsoft is really good at that, destroying competitors, as well as partners.

Meanwhile, there are speculations that Microsoft and Huawei will buy Nokia remains.
http://bgr.com/2013/01/02/nokia-prediction-sell-smartphone-business-279281/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBoyGeniusReport+%28BGR+|+Boy+Genius+Report%29

ejvictor

What I find facinating is that all the bits "thrown off the burning platform into the sea" by Elop are now washing ashore in great shape. The Intel processors that delayed Meego ready, witness the Lenovo K900. The migration path - QT 5.0 released Dec 19 2012 now embraced by RIM, Jolla, canonical, with ports for Android and iOS first quarter 2013. This year will be the year of the gesture OS - the SWIPE UX - Jolla carries the torch.

Imagine IF Elop had focused on execution....

foo

More images illustrating Nokia collapse:

1) What Nokia+Microsoft promissed:

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2q1evk1.jpg

2) What actually happened:

http://oi48.tinypic.com/dgu3n.jpg

3) Comparing what Nokia gained with what it lost:

http://oi50.tinypic.com/157bvro.jpg

4) Gains vs losses, side by side:

http://oi48.tinypic.com/34ifvvb.jpg

(Based on data by Tomi Ahonen. These images may be freely redistributed.)

cart

Tizen has nothing to do with MeeGo. Tizen is HTML5, MeeGo is Qt. Look at Jolla/Sailfish, Ubuntu Mobile and Blackberry10 for MeeGo-like Experiences. Tizen experience looks worse than the dead bada...

Wayne Borean


2013 is going to be a great year for consumers. A least in mobile.

Seriously. How many fields do you know of where more than ten companies are fighting for your purchase?

Automobiles? Barely. Remember, Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and GMC are all one company. Same with Chrysler, Fiat, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, and Dodge, or Toyota and Lexus. In North America you don't find ten different car companies competing. Anywhere.

Computers? There's still openings for White Box OEMs, even though Intel seems to be trying to kill them. But there's less than ten big companies in general competition.

But in Mobile there's fifteen competitors! Competition breeds capabilities. Darwin was right. Evolution works (though he didn't have mobile in mind!)

2013 should bring some fascinating new devices.

Wayne

vladkr

I agree that Elop's interview mentioning that "everything is possible" (ie Nokia/Android phones ?) is just noise to artificially raise shares' value (and maybe to calm investors down before Q4 results).

Nokia doesn't present anything special at the CES, so Elop had to find something to get remarked.

I remember, while I was still in France, Sagem and Alcatel used to be big players in mobile technology. Both lost popularity in the past years, but I'm surprised to see that Alcatel - present at the CES - is resisting quite well, releasing attractive mid-range products.

Firecracker

Sup Tomi did you know that Denmark now also has a smartphone maker who is beating the Lumia by 10000 times in innovative features.
check them out here: http://lumigon.com/products.html

cycnus

@vladkr

I believe Alcatel brand is bought by some chinese company.

chithanh

One could add that Windows Phone was not mentioned during any smartphone maker's press conference.

@cart "Tizen has nothing to do with MeeGo."
This is not correct. Tizen is a successor of MeeGo. And even though Tizen uses EFL and MeeGo uses Qt, some code was carried over from MeeGo to Tizen.
http://www.linuxfoundation.org/news-media/blogs/browse/2011/09/welcome-tizen-linux-foundation

cycnus

@chithanh

But Steve Balmer manage to crash into Qualcomm keynote and doing shameless things.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Wn_XI3dU-kU

somehow when I see balmer, i remember this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sforhbLiwL­A

vladkr

@cygnus: I believe it too, but I'm still amazed how Chinese can revive European companies... is there a hope there for Nokia ?

John Waclawsky

We should get into the economics that are offered by the various eco-systems. I see the economic advantage trend to be hugely in Android/Linux favor. It is increasingly obvious, for example:
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2234661/barclays-cuts-software-spending-by-90-percent-with-open-source

The economics are also part of the reason that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

URNumber6

@ukd

There's a huge difference between reducing market share and collapsing sales. The market was expanding at an enormous rate, NOKIA's sales were still increasing but at a slower rate than the overall market.

That was the situation right up until Elop sabotaged NOKIA, it was only after his 'burning platforms' memo (press release?) and subsequent announcement that Symbian was EOL that NOKIA nose-dived.

igguk1

@ ejvictor
He was focused but on:

Nokia's execution.


eduardo

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

When a ceo says "no comment" it's because he thinks any answer he could give, true or false, would get the company in trouble.

If Nokia is not pursuing Android, then he could have just said it. So I assume that if he won't answer it is because Nokia is at least seriously looking at Android, but Elop doesn't want to admit it, partly so as to not anger Microsoft, partly because doing so would lead to another Osborne effect disaster.

Janne Särkelä

The news today out of the smartphone territory is that Android is the operating system of choice for new smarter kitchen etc appliances. Unless Microsoft comes up with such devices or better - operating systems - for such digital convergence the battle is pretty much over. The field will inevitably miniaturize, and monolithic systems will lag and crumble because of their inability to conform with the technological progress. The less energy - less space paradigm and the easy availability of general computer parts will pave way for ever even more smarter and diverse set of devices, to which systems like WP will not fit. Heck, the kids today already play with lego blocks which have Linux inside, so there's literally the new generation right there..

RottenApple

Baron 95 is again posting anti-Google FUD. Please ignore. None of these 'predictions' can be substantiated.

You are quite obviously a paid troll whose mission is to badmouth Google. Do you happen to be part of Microsoft's latest smearing campaign? Shame on you!

Jamie

Well if Elop admitted to persuing Android, then it was soon retracted. Anyway would that not amount to admitting that his strategy has failed ? That would amount to a new memo "Burning platform II". MS is not Nokia, so he knows better than bad mouth MS. He would not admitt that 3rd ecosystem is a dead horse. Nokia's mistake is keeping such CEO. Anybody makes mistakes but it is unforgivable to continue doing the same and expecting different results.

MS & Nokia's bed is no longer rosy. WP8 did not provide the Umf that Nokia needed and there is no strategy for next step after Limia 920. That is typical MS way of working. Release one product give it 3 - 4 years to settle in. In the meantime, Apple, Google have come with new innovations each quater.

Unless there are others calling the shots at Nokia, I do not believe the Andriod story even though it would be the best option for Nokia today. It is highly unlikely that MS will buy Nokia. They are more interested in the SW business and are happy to have seen off one of the competitors. Let the smaller players fight the HW wars with patents after all Google has bought Moto and so what ? MS have an eye on Nokia Patent cache and we can only speculate on the contents of their secret deal.

Nokia needs a new down, new mngt, new strategy and fresh ideas, not those same old methods that do not listen to consumers as displayed by current CEO. Nokia can do quite well even as an OEM but needs to provide products that customers want. Many would move to a Nokia Android platform but of course Elop will not give them that. If Nokia wants to be a successful OEM they need to take a lesson from the best of them all. Samsung is providing handsets in OS that most suitable to its users. They are at the sametime creating a market for Samsung products. But what are Nokia's consumers treated to ? Same old story of creating an ecosystem. An ecosystem is built by consumer demand not the old monopoly of state aparatus dictating what every one should buy. Those days are long gone. C'mon Nokia, investigate what your consumers want today and change course..

John Waclawsky

More delusional non-sense opinions from our persistent Microsoft shill, Baron95.. beating the same old and very tired drum. LOL ...and clearly he is a Microsoft astroturfer even though he posted some misdirection rants a few times to make it appear he is an Appple fanboy.

As @janne... points out Microsoft is in decline in other marjets as well. But guess what the TRUTH is hard to igonre for the Microsoft astroturfers.
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

Let me repeat for the trolls :-) NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

Henry Sinn

Been disappointed in all things Sony for years but have recently purchased the waterproof Acro S as I'm often on our near the ocean

Also jumped on board with Vaio Duo 11 (Windows 8) and have to say.....

Sony : I am really impressed!

Henry Sinn

The mind boggles... How is it that Elop is not behind bars?
Even a hint of Symbian being extended (Note: My current / last Symbian phone STILL does so many things better than Android) surely had to be grounds for total incompetence and failure

Henry Sinn

iAgree re iCompany missing the iBoat.

Some of you may find the "alternate" use of an Android phone rather interesting. See http://henrysinn.com/outpost360

Mr Eric Wu

Elop could never go Android and survive. If he selected Android it would prove that everything he did was wrong and not even Elop could survive that. As mentioned MeeGo and Sailfish are close and the work that Jolla did, practically off their own backs in a few months show that Nokia could have released a version of MeeGo with Android app support in less time than they shipped the Lumia 800. Elop killed MeeGo, Elop cannot make that U-turn.

Nokia could go Android, but not with Mr Elop.

The Symbian story is about saving the company. Not reviving the OS but keeping the money coming in. Symbian still outsells the WPs and is more profitable for Nokia (almost no maintenance cost, little advertising and yet reasonable sales). If word gets out that it in maintenance (which it is - the final features were written 2012Q2) then sales drop even more. Nokia is selling off anything and everything of value now just trying to scrape a healthy Quarterly Result, in order to keep up the pretense, hoping that WP traction will kick in. It won't though and Elop knows it. NOWAWPOT.

In all honesty the only thing Nokia is able to do at the moment is collect licensing money from the patents. It should ditch everything else, exit the phone business, lower costs to minimum and license existing IP.

Br,

59noraB

Finally Baron95 show he's trully identity.... MICROSOFT ASTROTURFER!!!!

Congratulation Baron95, you have been able to pretend to be iSheep for as long as you need to badmouthing Google.

If you were personally on Mark Penn team, tell him to go to hell.

JP

"Windows Phone 8 on Qualcomm's Snapdragon processor is "selling like hotcakes in China," Sullivan said."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9235532/Microsoft_exec_doesn_t_rule_out_Intel_based_Windows_Phones

I just got a strange déjà vu... Haven't I heard these vague China references about WP success before...

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