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January 21, 2013

Comments

Interested to know

Great article. I think it's great to SEE how Nokia's obvious lies and half truths about sales look in reality.

I loved that Forbes article about Microsoft. I really believe they're on a downward trajectory but I wonder if the timing will be that soon. I guess it depends on how hard Ballmer is able to willing to fight to stay in control. Hopefully he'll wreck a good bit more before they get rid of him.

EmmanuelM


The random reboot problem has also been mentionned in MyNokiaBlog :

http://mynokiablog.com/2013/01/11/my-issues-with-windows-phone-8-one-month-on/

anobserver

"Yes, Nokia gave up there whole customer-relationship"

This is deadly.

Nokia cannot fix errors in the OS. Cannot inform customers whether errors stem from the OS or a poorly written app. Cannot perform maintenance (see the link about Russia).

This may be expected from a cheap no-name Chinese Android knock-off manufacturer (with correspondingly low prices), but not from a vendor of premium handsets. If Microsoft does not fundamentally change its licensing policy, WP devices will linger on, but they will be relegated to a much lower category (closer to feature phones than smartphones).

BenLan

Hi Tomi,
Very interesting blog.
I wanted to say that I am so amazed how the press in France have all spread the same message : Nokia has recovered (*only*) thanks to strong Lumia sales.
It is really amazing to see how it is so easy for Mr Elop to make them telling what he want.
In fact it seems the result, as far as we know, are indeed better than expected for Nokia (mobile selling resisted, good progress for asha, no more loss for their mobile unit) BUT i don't see much why it is the effect of the Lumia.
As you explained, Lumia sale are the same as in Q2.
And all the medias compare the number with Q4/2011 when there was only one model that was being launched, the lumia 800, and only in some parts of the world, or they compare with Q3/2012, when all people were waiting for Christmas and the new smartphones.
But anyway, Mr Elop has succeeded to make everyone think that the not-so-bad-result came from the Lumia sales, from his own strategy, NOT from the agreement with RIM, not from the good result of the other subdiaries, and other phone sales...
I think by this quite cunning communication Mr Elop saved his job for some quarters more.

khim

It's not Ballmer.

See, Microsoft has long, loong, looooooong history of screwing it's partners. It works fine in short term (you screw your partners thus the profits they hoped to obtain are becoming yours), but long term it places you in position where you have weak partners and "everyone and their dog" are trying to screw you. But of course when you are monopoly it's hard. Yet when technological landscape shifts... It becomes much easier - show a small weakness - and you are a toast. This is what happened with Microsoft. Seeds of Microsoft's downfall were planted by Bill Gates.

P.S. Note that IBM was in the same situation 20 years ago (ironically enough Microsoft was "the great savior" back then) and Apple in the first stage of the same cycle (and Google is a libirator this time). IBM survived because it changed it's CEO and radically redid the whole company. Apple... we'll see what'll happen: there are enough companies who are bitter, but it's not as if the whole industry tries to screw it. At least not yet.

Winter

@anobserver
"If Microsoft does not fundamentally change its licensing policy, ..."

This is watching the "March of the lemmings", but now for real. The lemmings in the film did not turn away from the cliff.

hrx

Nokia Lumia 820 is finally arriving in Croatia in a week - retail price is 4599 kn ($810/€606), while T-Mobile (the largest carrier in Croatia) offers it for 4098 kn ($722/€540).

The availability and price announcement came as a cold shower to WP and Lumia fans - a number of them are announcing that they are switching to HTC - its flagship WP phone, the 8X, (available since November) retails for 4999 kn ($881/€660), while T-Mobile offers it for 4198 kn ($740/€554), just 100 kn ($18/€14) more than the Lumia 820. Additionaly, taking subscription into account, the 8X is less expensive - the customer pays between 250 and 1200 kn ($44-212/€33-158) less for a higher specced phone, depending on the subscription tier. BTW, all prices are for SIM unlocked phones, without subscription (contract).

With those prices, it is certain that Lumia 820 sales in Croatia will be poor (and 920, when it arrives, even worse due its €150 higher price), simply because the competition offers more for the same (or smaller) price.

On a sidenote, up until a year ago, Nokia was omnipresent in my city - you could not walk along the street without hearing Nokia's ringtones, or see someone using a Nokia featurephone or smartphone. Today, not only that Nokia's smartphones (and "smartphones", Asha) are not present, Nokia's featurephones are dissapearing because people are switching to (mostly Samsung's) smartphones. I have not seen a single Asha "in the wild", and I have seen Lumia phones only in T-Mobile's shop window when Lumia 800 launched a year ago (even the demo unit was not working, tucked in a corner deep inside the store).

I will end this post with some comments regarding the Lumia 820 price from posters on the leading Croatian tech magazine's forum:
"I have waited for them like a frostbitten man waits the sun, but with those prices, I'm not buying 820 or 920, but HTC 8X instead. 4600 kn - they must be smoking pot. "
"The price will go down by summer, because they will realize that, in this country, it is hard to sell bread, let alone expensive smartphones, an then one [Lumia 820] will land in my pocket."
"Dear Nokia, I have eagerly awaited Lumia 820, but with these lovely prices, I wish you bankrupt as soon as possible. Oh, and I'm buying HTC."

Tester

@hrx:

Now that really hurts - and it proves another point about the problems with Windows Phone: Even if it became successful, it'd be companies like HTC and Samsung who will be the winners - which both coincidentally also support Android, meaning they can easily wage a price war with Nokia - which can't afford that at all due to lack of alternative product.

So, either way, bad news for Nokia.

foo

Let's put together some of my previous images.

Here's what happened to Nokia smartphone sales after Elop announced his crazy strategy:

http://oi48.tinypic.com/dgu3n.jpg

Let's compare the lost sales (black) with the Lumia sales (orange):

http://oi48.tinypic.com/34ifvvb.jpg

Now, you'd say that the worse happened in the first couple of quarters, and things improved by now.

But Tomi just showed us that the Lumia line suffered another loss in the last two quarters, if compared to industry growth:

http://oi50.tinypic.com/1hy1pi.jpg

That's a loss inside of another loss!

foo

@Tomi: "For context, this is reality. Here I have harmonized the first 5 quarters of Lumia sales, to the last 5 quarters of Symbian sales before the Elop Effect. Conveniently, the seasonality is the same, so the Christmas sales spike hits the same point in the picture."

One interesting thing to ask, when you compare these two charts, is: which platform is "on fire"?

Yes, because Elop looked at the blue chart and said that *that* platform was on fire. What would he say about the orange chart?

Abhijeet Mishra

It is just sad to see what has become of Nokia now. Their hardware remains great (I constantly wish I could see Android on the Lumia 920 or in fact any Lumia), but just going with WP is clearly not the way to go. Add to that that Nokia is advertising the Asha phones as smartphones and selling well here in India, coupled with bad pricing for outdated phones like the Lumia 900 (which costs only $10 less than the Galaxy S3 here, even today!), all of which has made me lose respect for Nokia slowly and slowly. Killed Symbian, killed MeeGo, and went with an OS that they have no control over and is failing to gain traction, then also fooling people with stupid pricing and advertising feature phones as smartphones.

Bad Nokia, bad Elop! But I still hope Nokia will adapt another OS in the future, any of the open source ones that are coming up if not Android.

Abhijeet Mishra

@hrx

yikes, bad pricing for sure. Nokia has thankfully not been so bad about pricing here in India, though the Lumia 900 was heavily overpriced when it launched in September and is now only $10 cheaper than the Galaxy S3. The Lumia 820 has been launched for around $510, 920 for $700 (HTC 8x is around $630), which is around $10 more than the Note 2. No contracts here.

But yeah, it seems Nokia is not pricing their devices well everywhere, and for this I really hope other companies like HTC and Samsung do better, specially Samsung whose prices are damn awesome, at least here.

Now go buy the 8X, 820 be damned!

cycnus

Back in the year before ELOP,
Tomi said, "user don't care about OS....."
The US news site say "Symbian is bad.... but nokia rule"
which is basically translate into what Elop say "If nokia + WP it would be even better".

The reality:
Nokia + WP = Failure
So, there could only 2 conclusion
1. Symbian is good (better than WP), and US news site is WRONG!
2. Good + Good NOT ALWAYS EQUAL GOOD^2
LOL...

The real question....
Does anyone think the american media do it on purpose to discredit Symbian?? Do you think Microsoft play important role in here LONG BEFORE ELOP ARRIVE?

incognito

A slight off-topic - how the hell did I miss this article: http://betanews.com/2010/09/10/microsoft-s-stephen-elop-moves-to-nokia-what-a-waste/ - Wilcox warned us/Nokia about Elop much before even Tomi started to question his actions. Shame it fell on deaf ears...

incognito

@hrx, I wouldn't worry about Nokia in this particular case - they've lost millions of users, adding all six WP fans from Croatia to that list won't make any difference.

Wayne

The only SMS issue I had was actually a network issue that a 15 minute call to Rogers fixed. Three other friends, ironically with different phones tried to send a similar message as mine and got a similar error. All had to call Rogers to fix it. Is this a microSIM issue not removing old network info from your account?

Spawn

@cycnus

> US news site is WRONG!

How is that news? The news is that "Symbian was not good" but most customers did not got that memo, did not know Nokia was using Symbian and liked there Nokia's.

The news is all those reading Tomi's blog and know what Symbian is, what S40 is, are mobile-geeks. Most customers are not. They not even known what a OS is.

But WHAT they did know was:
1) Nokia was making great phones. Most valuable brand, customer satisfaction, loyal customers, sky-rocking sales, the number 1.
2) Nokia does not make the best phones any longer. Samsung and Apple are better.

> Good + Good NOT ALWAYS EQUAL GOOD^2

Windows Phone never was good. It never got past 5% market share. Even Windows CE was selling better.

Also Nokia was not able to add its Good's to the mix. Either they aborted them beforehand or Elop came in to poision them.

Bad + Bad = Bad
So unexpected?

> Does anyone think the american media do it on purpose to discredit Symbian?

Most of them are neither mobile-geeks nor accurate forecasters nor business-people. They write what you give them. Real journalism is rar and has in most cases a limited reach, influence, spread.

Spawn

@cycnus

About media: Where do we read and are informed about strategic plumpers, about mobile future, where do we get accurate forecasts, insights into the industry, a good perspective on past, present and future? Where are things proper analysed and not just copied from PR-messages?

CNN? FoxNews? CBS? Times? No, on the Internet. On Tomi's blog. That is telling everything what we have to know about journalism. Sad but true.

foo

@incognito - amazing article!

Some excerpts:

"No disrespect intended, but Elop wouldn't be my first choice to run Nokia, nor would he make my list of top-100 candidates. If someone handed me a list of people not to choose, Elop would be among the top five. I love Nokia. I lauded its handsets for years. But this great company has pissed away market share and bungled the most basic innovations since Apple launched iPhone in June 2007. Elop may be the greatest mistake of all and sure sign Nokia won't effectively execute against Google's rising Android Army or Apple's iOS cultists."

"If Elop is so qualified to run Nokia, why didn't Ballmer charge him with turning around Microsoft's mobile division? Hell, why didn't Ballmer hire Elop for the responsibility two years ago? Microsoft's mobile strategy clearly had already run aground when Elop came on two years ago. There is little about Elop's Microsoft tenure or his previous jobs that makes him obviously the leader to turn around Nokia -- or to fit in with a company with huge global presence."

http://betanews.com/2010/09/10/microsoft-s-stephen-elop-moves-to-nokia-what-a-waste/

ejvictor

What is the deal with the "Abnormal" growth of WP in Italy(Kantar numbers)? Dumping?

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