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« Nokia Surprises Us by Releasing Q4 Smartphone Results Early. So 3% for Q4 and 5% for full year 2012? And they think this is 'good' ??? | Main | Countdown to Mobile Moment - When Will Mobile Phone Accounts Outnumber Humans? I say July 2013 (we are at 6.7B already) »

January 11, 2013

Comments

Baron95

2012 Global Smartphone Average Sale Price (read and weep if you are not Apple, HTC, Samsung, Moto):

Apple = $618
HTC/Samsung = $310 (half Apple's)
Moto = $298
Sony = $240
RIM = $226 (a bit better than 1/3 Apple's)
Nokia = $178 (half Samsung's, 1/4 Apple's)
Tier 1 Chinese = $175
Tier 2/3 Chinese = $171

Source:http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/1/11/4115211-1357895216521757-Michael-Fu.jpg

Jeroen

Based on all your research it is crystal clear an incredible harm has been done to Nokia and its shareholders. I read here before the WP7.5 phones are being sold for dump prices thus skewing the numbers. Is there a way you can measure how good the WP8 phones are doing?

@ Lasko "To be fair one should mention that most Symbian releases were somewhat 'feature complete'. I still have a N95 in use and allthough I never received a major update I do not feel lacking anything." I am completely at awe how mobile vendors stop to provide support for their products. I'm not talking about major updates here; I am talking about 2 factors: 1) security updates. Revoked CA certs to name one example, bugs in Gecko/WebKit to name another. 2) reliability updates. If hardware was shipped half broken and a software update can fix this, vendors should release this. Maemo suffered from this but due to the open nature of the platform there was at least 3rd party updates (they recently even updated CA cert due to Turktrust being hacked). It'd be better if vendors themselves dealt with this though.

tired

@Baron95

Say the same thing with a straight face using numbers of units sold. Say the same thing looking at how much Nokia stock was worth before this failed WP experiment.

Nokia should just come out after Q1 2013 and say that the experiment failed. Move along to something better.

It's the so called Nokia fans who applauded this foolhardy wp venture that are as responsible as elop and gang for the current situation Nokia is in.

To even suggest that Asha is anywhere near S60, even when compared to 5800, is utter rubbish. S60 wasn't very good, but it wasn't bad either compared to the competition at the time. Just like Asha isn't very good compared to the current competition. But pricing plays a very important role as well. For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good. That's one of the major reasons Lumia line (WP7) phones are selling well now.. Compared to the competition, WP is rubbish. But factor in cost, and it still sells. The only loser in all of this is Nokia.

Tester

@tired:

>> For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.

I don't think so. Last time I saw one advertised it was for €99.99.

In the same ad, for the same price there was also a low end Android phone.
It had a larger screen, higher screen resolution but a slightly slower CPU.

Of course it also has a significantly better selection of apps.

Sorry, but for me the Ashas are a cheat, nothing more.

Regardless, the report clearly shows that Nokia's entire business is now located at the bottom end of the market. This is clearly not a good sign.

elm70

@ baron95

Nokia Investor hate Elop, Microsoft and all the Window Crappy Phones

Pre 11.2.2011 Nokia was around 8.5 Euro, now is bouncing with tricky Elop announcement at 3.5 euro

Nokia pre Elop had a decent strategy, decent product, and was the king of a market that experience +50% a year ... Nokia Investors could now as rich as the Apple Investor ... but the trick Americans fund with 15% got control of Nokia, they placed Elop, and use him for destroy Nokia, destroy Nokia shareholder value, for the good of Microsoft and othe4 Americans funds interest

Now ... please you no sense propaganda do on a Microsoft web space

Tchuss

E_lm_70

daz

Tomi, impressive blog with accurate analyisis and predictions. I'm reading it for more than a year now and at first i had great doubts about your forecasts, but now i can see that all of your predictions come very accurately true. Congratulations, you're doing an amazing job and thank you for providing it for free.

I have one suggestion about the formatting of the archived entries, i would like to see just titles with links to posts, but all of them. In the current form it is impossible to find an article from the past year. Would that be possible? Maybe it requires an update to the site blog software, but it would be extremely useful. I find myself wanting to direct others to some specific article of yours, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find it. So the simple solution for this is a page that would list all your topics along with a date and a link. Hopefully you'll read this and be able to improve the navigation of the archived articles.

Regards!

Lasko

@Baron95

NOK Feb. 2011 - 11,06/share
NOK Jan. 2013 - 3,75/share

Yes, investors truly love Windows (Phone).

NOK Feb. 2011 - 28,8% marketshare
NOK Jan. 2013 - 2,8% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Lumia.

Windows Feb. 2008 - 12% marketshare
Windows Jan. 2013 - 1,5% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Windows (Phone).


Percentages are worth nothing without a reference.

In 2012 220,000 people have been killed by murderes, +20,000 in constrast to 2012, or +10%.
In 2012 3 people have been killed by tarantulas, +1 in contrast to 2012, or +33%.

Tarantulas are obviously becoming more dangerous than murderes.

Henrik

@Baron95 You could also say that Nokia Stocks went up 180% when Nokia said that they might want to look at other OS then Windows Phone.
They said that it would not be impossible to make an Android phone in the future.

Lasko

@Baron95

"Windows Phone 8 will be successful because of Windows 8 and Windows RT, the Windows ecosystem".

I had a really hard laugh on this. Windows 8 marketshare ~1,5%, forced by OEM sales only, declining ~20%, Windows RT 0,005%, also declining.

But you are right - Windows Phone aligns perfect with this 'synergy'. Marketshare 2%, also declining.

Saswat

I am not a tech expert but i genuinely regretted replacing my Symbian with lumia 710.I couldn't usb tether,i couldn't use a proper pc suite and many other things apart from creating sms drafts.I was simply fooled into thinking it would be a step forward !(not backward!!!)
Really how were they imagining a happy user transition ?

Eurofan

Here is a short article from Fortune/CNN which gives the Bernstein Research numbers from their survey of smart phone users.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/07/apple-not-a-premium-consumer-brand/

75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device, 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.

R

@N9: The Android version of the Linux kernel has extensive customizations to work with the Android system, which don't come from Linux. Especially WakeLocks, for a program to signal to the kernel that it shouldn't go to sleep, but there are others. Android Linux is very different from the GNU/Linux that Nokia was using.

To get a phone SoC to work with both Android Linux and GNU/Linux, they required separate drivers to be written. And Qualcomm, especially, is uninterested in helping GNU/Linux.

It's possible to get a GNU/Linux system running on an Android Linux kernel, but it takes a lot of work. Only the people at Canonical seem to be doing that work, when they're making Ubuntu for cell phones.

Likewise, there are people working to merge the Android Linux kernel into the normal Linux kernel, and eliminate the differences. Linus Torvalds estimates that it will take about 5 years. It's not easy.

daz

R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/03/19/linux-kernel-3-3-merged-android-code/

newbie reader

// 75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device,
// 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just
// 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.

And 95% for iPhone. These numbers seems to be very reasonable.

75% for Android, the major platform, is about the same as overall android marketshare, exactly what it should be.

For a smaller platform, a high retention rate ***is essential to survive***

This not the case for WP, they cannot hold even those souls that they managed to trap.

the higher NOK goes, the better short it is.

khim

@daz: R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

Actually standard linux only merged enough code to *boot* *the* *device*.

Fast 3D? Accelerated video playback? Decent battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit!

It's possible to run GNU/Linux system on top of the Android kernel, but it's not trivial. And the biggest hurdle is not technical but political: if Android stops working with Qualcomm's stuff then, obviously, it's Qualcomm's problem and Qualcomm will fix it. But if Meego or Ubuntu crashes this then Qualcomm can say that it never intended to support such use - and that's it.

N9

@R :
Android kernel is a fork from mainline kernel and as such very similar. And, yes, it has features which are only gradually moved back into mainline, but this does not imply that separate drivers need to be written. In the worst case, this means that porting drivers to mainline takes a small amount of work. It is hard to see how this could have been a problem.

@khim:

Yes, but we are not talking about how hard it is for some random hacker to use Android with a mainline kernel, but how hard it would have been for Nokia to port Meego to a new platform which is already supported by Android

Poifan

@Tester.
I agree that Nokia screwed up the migration path, but its because of my original point that Symbian was the problem. QT was not an established mobile ecosystem in 2011, so while the idea to migrate from Symbian to Meego via QT sounds great, It would only have worked if QT had been an established ecosystem years earlier running on Symbian

To me the QT/Meego story was always flawed because it wasn't that you could run existing Symbian apps on Meego, but that you could run QT apps which were not widely deployed yet on Symbian. And this was because it took too long to get QT running on Symbian in a commercial sense (there were plenty of demos).

vladkr

After what happened at Nortel, Could/was/is/Will a similar scheme apply to Nokia?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/14/nortel-verdict.html

Nokia's governance is obviously "playing" (speculating) with share's value... it's surprising to see no reaction from stock exchange authorities.

Spawn

@John Phamlore

> There was simply no suitable hardware platform for a successor to the N9

There where at least 3: the N9, the N950 and those unnamed prototype we saw pictures recently. That makes it at least 3 more different models then Lumia. How is that an argument?

> Qualcomm probably had not prioritized MeeGo very high

1. "Probably"?
2. Android uses the Linux-Kernel.
3. Qualcomm-support is in the Linux Kernel, Qualcomm a Linux Foundation member and contributes to the Kernel.
4. The Linux-Kernel is GPL and all changes need to be and are made public.
5. MeeGo used that Linux-Kernel too.

And latest now your argument is gone and I didn't gave sources like those you find about Qualcomm's Linux support via google, nvidia or TI's still available OMAP5 yet.

I am curious to know what your "perhaps" is based on?

Spawn

@John Phamlore

One more

> Nokia ended up opting for Intel

This is wrong in that Intel was MeeGo-partner but that doesn't means Nokia was going to switch all there ARM's to Intel's if that is what your source refers to?

Before and after the Intel-partnership when Maemo became MeeGo the N950 with ARM SoC was the secret alpha-device final testing and optimization happened on for most teams. Some experimented with others devices like what later became the N9 or the tablet which never appeared but most where using N950.

Spawn

@R

> The Android version of the Linux kernel has extensive customizations

Like the most Linux distributions have, like MeeGo had.

The Linux Kernel is a construction kit and there are thausend of patches available but not merged into Linus's tree. All that patches are available as per GPL and its one single command to cherry-pick a patch from anyone's tree to your tree.

You are not forced to stick with vanilla Linux. Most not do. So what?

> WakeLocks

http://lwn.net/Articles/318611/ explains why it wasn't merged. After a few more iterations it resukted in https://lwn.net/Articles/479841/ . In some cases it needs time till a spcific patchset makes it into Linus's tree and so becomes Linux mainline. But something doesn't need to be in mainline to be usuable by others. There are plenty of patchsets not in mainline but used by distributors.

The difference is that patches not in mainline are not maintained by the Kernel folks. In most cases cause it does not fullfit there standards, is to offensive or just not finished. There are even staging Kernels like Linux next to slowly bring specific patches into mainline if they are close but not there yet.

Google made patches for there Android Linux kernel like Nokia did. Both made the patches available as required and both even worked hard on getting them into Linus's tree. Some patches got in direct, some took a week, some a month and some years and multiple iterations. That how the Kernel works. You cannot expect to just get any crap in. If something is of low quality but important people (not necessary the initial patch-writer) will work on improving quality till it can be merged.

This is what raised the quality of the Kernel significant and this is what companies and developers love the Kernel and why its still of good quality, highly maintainble even after thausends of developers and million of patches.

> To get a phone SoC to work with both Android Linux and GNU/Linux, they required separate drivers to be written

No, it requires you to merge the public available patches not in Linus's tree (yet) into your tree. That's a one-liner command and done in some seconds.

> And Qualcomm, especially, is uninterested in helping GNU/Linux.

Bullshit. Qualcomm is in the Linux Foundation and has a bunch of dedicated Linux Kernel developers.

> It's possible to get a GNU/Linux system running on an Android Linux kernel, but it takes a lot of work.

It takes YOU a lot of work cause you don't know what git is.

> Only the people at Canonical seem to be doing that work

And Amazon and Facebook and the CyanogenMod devs and Intel who ported Android to x86 and all the maintainers of git tree's out there who merged parts or all of Android into there Linux clones.

@khim

> Actually standard linux only merged enough code to *boot* *the* *device*.

Not even close to. Most of the already merged patches are not even close related to specific devices. Patches like Wakelock are not either. Its a power-management concept. Pkease rwad up on the links I gave above.

> Fast 3D? Accelerated video playback? Decent battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit!

Android uses Framebuffers and OpenGL for GPU-acceleration. Both supported by Linux before Android was born and used by Android. Linux is also used on embedded before Android rendering your battery-statement nonsense.

> if Android stops working with Qualcomm's stuff then, obviously, it's
> Qualcomm's problem and Qualcomm will fix it. But if Meego or
> Ubuntu crashes this then Qualcomm can say that it never
> intended to support such use - and that's it.

Qualcomm works direct on mainline linux.

http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2010/08/qualcomm-joins-the-linux-foundation-gets-seat-on-board/

"The group works with upstream development communities and contributes to a number of open source software projects that are relevant in the mobile space, including the Linux kernel and WebKit."

More questions?

Tester

@Poifan:

To me the QT/Meego story was always flawed because it wasn't that you could run existing Symbian apps on Meego, but that you could run QT apps which were not widely deployed yet on Symbian. And this was because it took too long to get QT running on Symbian in a commercial sense (there were plenty of demos).

That may all be true but don't forget that many developers were already investing in Symbian/Qt in the hope it would become a powerful ecosystem.

Now suddenly Nokia says, 'eek, screwed you!' and offered an alternative that had no compatibility to anything else in the market. Qt at least was C++ which could share code with iOS, Android NDK, Bada and even old Windows Mobile.

Now everything has to be recoded in a different programming language. I think that part was more fatal than anything else. From a developer's point of view WP7 was a completely unattractive platform because by its design it was completely isolated.

Not only lost they all their developers' trust, no, they effectively told them to have twice the work for no gain. There's reasons why WP has so few apps and it's not only the low market share of the platform. Another issue is the non-sharablility of all code made for it with other platforms.

Spawn

@Tester

Correct. Also its transition. That needs time and works in both directions. Two platforms, and with S40 - which outsells Lumia by factors as of today but is caught in its own limited app horror story - even 3 sharing the same ecosystem and making each other more strong.

Nokia could even have taken WP and add it to the mix. Microsoft lost already and with Nokia's strong stand, back then whencteo tines bigger thrn its nearest rival, Microsoft would have agreed to anything.

Did you know that back then Samsung had native C++ apps on its WP7 devices?

http://stackoverflow.com/questions/4749150/windows-phone-7-native-code-support
http://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?p=12372557

Following link will hurt you:
http://www.developer.nokia.com/Community/Discussion/showthread.php?219222-Symbian-C-to-WP7-migration-questions

Samsung got that from Microsoft when they where 1) lesser then half the size of Nokia and 2) not all-in, not even full committed going Android already.

So, I ask you: How stupid is it that Nokia's Elop actively refused a possible migration-path? One that Samsung got but not used cause they had no number 1 ecosystem to migrate and went with Android back then anyways?

I have to ask you: Qt for Windows CE was ready and support in Qt. WP7 was from the ground up based on Windows CE and supported by Qt excepot fir the political limitation to nit support native code. A limitation OEM's like Samsung where granted to bypass. And yet Nokia did not do that?

I have to ask you: What else got Nokia from Microsoft for jumping all-invatca time WP7 already failed and Samsung, etc, left but got such a deal that was public known also by Nokia? What was in for Nokia? They had most to give and most to lose and they lost most. So what did they go??? Bankrupt?

N9

@Tester:

It is true that were few Symbian QT apps at that time. But it is also rather irrelevant. There was a credible migration path for developers. From a business point of view it would have made sense to develop with QT for Symbian and Meego because there was (and still is) a gigantic install base of Symbian phones and in the future those apps could have been ported to Meego (and other platforms). But with the switch to WP 7 there was no point in developing for Symbian anymore (no long term profit) and also not for Windows Phone (no install base), so developers moved elsewhere.

Earendil Star

@spawn... thanks for the tidbit on Samsung's negotiating ability vis à vis MS...

I know that you know, but for the benefit of this blog's readers, THT Elop is not stupid, it's just they make him act apparently stupid... he's just a puppet following Redmond's directives.

Nokia had no need of WP, while MS was desperate to reach an agreement with a behemoth like Nokia, because the real burning platform was WP, the mobile (P)OS, not Symbian.

Yet, MS got everything, Nokia got screwed. Which stinks.

Jorma Ollila, please speak. Tell us what happened.

We deserve to know. Finland deserves to know. The world deserves to know.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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