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January 11, 2013


Arnt Karlsen

..another nail for Nokia's coffin:

John Waclawsky

I just came across this usability study. It another reason why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

Windows 8 is looking more and more DOA



Can you please advise a source for this Bernstein Survey/Study you are referring to? You once mentioned it was reported by Forbes, but I can neither find any reference to this study on Bernstein's, nor on Forbes site? (Most likely I am doing something wrong, but ...)

In general, having some links or sources would be helpful in most articles.

Would appreciate, if you could point to the mentioned report, even if it is a paid study. Thanks!


2012 Global Smartphone Average Sale Price (read and weep if you are not Apple, HTC, Samsung, Moto):

Apple = $618
HTC/Samsung = $310 (half Apple's)
Moto = $298
Sony = $240
RIM = $226 (a bit better than 1/3 Apple's)
Nokia = $178 (half Samsung's, 1/4 Apple's)
Tier 1 Chinese = $175
Tier 2/3 Chinese = $171


John Waclawsky

How could Nokia embrace such a historically slow, buggy, insecure, resource hog P(OS)? Surely they knew this going in or are they just dumb. Let's look at "slow" at this time:

In the "right from the horses mouth" department is some insight into how windows 8 boots and ONLY APPEARS to be faster than windows 7 but its just the splash screen metro interface that comes up. If you want to actually do something you still have to wait, and wait :-)

and now we are seeing more evidence that the future is android/Linux

This is just more background data for the accurate conclusion that: NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET


Based on all your research it is crystal clear an incredible harm has been done to Nokia and its shareholders. I read here before the WP7.5 phones are being sold for dump prices thus skewing the numbers. Is there a way you can measure how good the WP8 phones are doing?

@ Lasko "To be fair one should mention that most Symbian releases were somewhat 'feature complete'. I still have a N95 in use and allthough I never received a major update I do not feel lacking anything." I am completely at awe how mobile vendors stop to provide support for their products. I'm not talking about major updates here; I am talking about 2 factors: 1) security updates. Revoked CA certs to name one example, bugs in Gecko/WebKit to name another. 2) reliability updates. If hardware was shipped half broken and a software update can fix this, vendors should release this. Maemo suffered from this but due to the open nature of the platform there was at least 3rd party updates (they recently even updated CA cert due to Turktrust being hacked). It'd be better if vendors themselves dealt with this though.

John Waclawsky

More current, up to the minute perspective, on a broken windows 8 and why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS 8. The Windows 8 P(OS) is increasingly being called Vista 8 and is now getting to be known as a major disaster that even all the extensive Microsoft astroturfing and shilling can not suppress. An interesting question is: given the background of failures in the consumer space by microsoft why did nokia make an exclusive microsoft bet? Are they really that stupid?

The writing is on the wall NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

John Waclawsky

Our troll bragging about the stock price doesn't tell us where it was when Nokia announced the deal with microsoft. The big picture tells a much sadder tale of an investor disaster. The really pathetic aspect of this microsoft astroturfer is that this troll is so stupid he doesn't even know this line of hype is the typical sucker investor call for poorly performing low priced stocks that swing on a few pennies. You know the typical spam: "Hey, buy xxxx it's up 500%, or buy yyy it's up 800%...etc." This is truly comical. This is the greater fool theory... and the fool is doing the microsoft shilling. :-)



Say the same thing with a straight face using numbers of units sold. Say the same thing looking at how much Nokia stock was worth before this failed WP experiment.

Nokia should just come out after Q1 2013 and say that the experiment failed. Move along to something better.

It's the so called Nokia fans who applauded this foolhardy wp venture that are as responsible as elop and gang for the current situation Nokia is in.

To even suggest that Asha is anywhere near S60, even when compared to 5800, is utter rubbish. S60 wasn't very good, but it wasn't bad either compared to the competition at the time. Just like Asha isn't very good compared to the current competition. But pricing plays a very important role as well. For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good. That's one of the major reasons Lumia line (WP7) phones are selling well now.. Compared to the competition, WP is rubbish. But factor in cost, and it still sells. The only loser in all of this is Nokia.



>> For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.For the price Asha phones are sold for, they're good.

I don't think so. Last time I saw one advertised it was for €99.99.

In the same ad, for the same price there was also a low end Android phone.
It had a larger screen, higher screen resolution but a slightly slower CPU.

Of course it also has a significantly better selection of apps.

Sorry, but for me the Ashas are a cheat, nothing more.

Regardless, the report clearly shows that Nokia's entire business is now located at the bottom end of the market. This is clearly not a good sign.


@ baron95

Nokia Investor hate Elop, Microsoft and all the Window Crappy Phones

Pre 11.2.2011 Nokia was around 8.5 Euro, now is bouncing with tricky Elop announcement at 3.5 euro

Nokia pre Elop had a decent strategy, decent product, and was the king of a market that experience +50% a year ... Nokia Investors could now as rich as the Apple Investor ... but the trick Americans fund with 15% got control of Nokia, they placed Elop, and use him for destroy Nokia, destroy Nokia shareholder value, for the good of Microsoft and othe4 Americans funds interest

Now ... please you no sense propaganda do on a Microsoft web space




Tomi, impressive blog with accurate analyisis and predictions. I'm reading it for more than a year now and at first i had great doubts about your forecasts, but now i can see that all of your predictions come very accurately true. Congratulations, you're doing an amazing job and thank you for providing it for free.

I have one suggestion about the formatting of the archived entries, i would like to see just titles with links to posts, but all of them. In the current form it is impossible to find an article from the past year. Would that be possible? Maybe it requires an update to the site blog software, but it would be extremely useful. I find myself wanting to direct others to some specific article of yours, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find it. So the simple solution for this is a page that would list all your topics along with a date and a link. Hopefully you'll read this and be able to improve the navigation of the archived articles.




NOK Feb. 2011 - 11,06/share
NOK Jan. 2013 - 3,75/share

Yes, investors truly love Windows (Phone).

NOK Feb. 2011 - 28,8% marketshare
NOK Jan. 2013 - 2,8% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Lumia.

Windows Feb. 2008 - 12% marketshare
Windows Jan. 2013 - 1,5% marketshare

Yes, consumers truly like Windows (Phone).

Percentages are worth nothing without a reference.

In 2012 220,000 people have been killed by murderes, +20,000 in constrast to 2012, or +10%.
In 2012 3 people have been killed by tarantulas, +1 in contrast to 2012, or +33%.

Tarantulas are obviously becoming more dangerous than murderes.


@Baron95 You could also say that Nokia Stocks went up 180% when Nokia said that they might want to look at other OS then Windows Phone.
They said that it would not be impossible to make an Android phone in the future.



"Windows Phone 8 will be successful because of Windows 8 and Windows RT, the Windows ecosystem".

I had a really hard laugh on this. Windows 8 marketshare ~1,5%, forced by OEM sales only, declining ~20%, Windows RT 0,005%, also declining.

But you are right - Windows Phone aligns perfect with this 'synergy'. Marketshare 2%, also declining.


I just noticed the BBC thinks that should I put it? ...Oh yes, NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR EVEN WINDOWS 8

The industry is concluding what all of us on this blog already know: after years and years of effort by microsoft, they get the same, annoying to the trolls, result:


According to McAfee, windows 8 is likely to only be popular for viruses and malware, this truly funny,20033.html


I am not a tech expert but i genuinely regretted replacing my Symbian with lumia 710.I couldn't usb tether,i couldn't use a proper pc suite and many other things apart from creating sms drafts.I was simply fooled into thinking it would be a step forward !(not backward!!!)
Really how were they imagining a happy user transition ?


Here is a short article from Fortune/CNN which gives the Bernstein Research numbers from their survey of smart phone users.

75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device, 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.


More perspective on Window P(OS). The link titles say it all :-)

Also some news from Amazon:



@N9: The Android version of the Linux kernel has extensive customizations to work with the Android system, which don't come from Linux. Especially WakeLocks, for a program to signal to the kernel that it shouldn't go to sleep, but there are others. Android Linux is very different from the GNU/Linux that Nokia was using.

To get a phone SoC to work with both Android Linux and GNU/Linux, they required separate drivers to be written. And Qualcomm, especially, is uninterested in helping GNU/Linux.

It's possible to get a GNU/Linux system running on an Android Linux kernel, but it takes a lot of work. Only the people at Canonical seem to be doing that work, when they're making Ubuntu for cell phones.

Likewise, there are people working to merge the Android Linux kernel into the normal Linux kernel, and eliminate the differences. Linus Torvalds estimates that it will take about 5 years. It's not easy.


R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

newbie reader

// 75% of Android users plan to repurchase another Android device,
// 58% of BlackBerry users plan on doing similarly, while just
// 37% of Windows phone owners intend on sticking with the platform.

And 95% for iPhone. These numbers seems to be very reasonable.

75% for Android, the major platform, is about the same as overall android marketshare, exactly what it should be.

For a smaller platform, a high retention rate ***is essential to survive***

This not the case for WP, they cannot hold even those souls that they managed to trap.

the higher NOK goes, the better short it is.


@daz: R: bullshit, android linux kernel changes have already been merged to the standard linux in prevous year.

Actually standard linux only merged enough code to *boot* *the* *device*.

Fast 3D? Accelerated video playback? Decent battery life? Fuhgeddaboudit!

It's possible to run GNU/Linux system on top of the Android kernel, but it's not trivial. And the biggest hurdle is not technical but political: if Android stops working with Qualcomm's stuff then, obviously, it's Qualcomm's problem and Qualcomm will fix it. But if Meego or Ubuntu crashes this then Qualcomm can say that it never intended to support such use - and that's it.


@R :
Android kernel is a fork from mainline kernel and as such very similar. And, yes, it has features which are only gradually moved back into mainline, but this does not imply that separate drivers need to be written. In the worst case, this means that porting drivers to mainline takes a small amount of work. It is hard to see how this could have been a problem.


Yes, but we are not talking about how hard it is for some random hacker to use Android with a mainline kernel, but how hard it would have been for Nokia to port Meego to a new platform which is already supported by Android


I agree that Nokia screwed up the migration path, but its because of my original point that Symbian was the problem. QT was not an established mobile ecosystem in 2011, so while the idea to migrate from Symbian to Meego via QT sounds great, It would only have worked if QT had been an established ecosystem years earlier running on Symbian

To me the QT/Meego story was always flawed because it wasn't that you could run existing Symbian apps on Meego, but that you could run QT apps which were not widely deployed yet on Symbian. And this was because it took too long to get QT running on Symbian in a commercial sense (there were plenty of demos).

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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