My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« The Engagement Marketing Primer for 2013 - E Equals M 2 C - Engagement Equals Mobile To Community - Or how to get 30% response rates with your next campaigns | Main | Picture 4 in Nokia Saga: How Badly the Promised Migration from Symbian to Windows Phone is Failing »

January 10, 2013

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c8833017ee73095b3970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Nokia Surprises Us by Releasing Q4 Smartphone Results Early. So 3% for Q4 and 5% for full year 2012? And they think this is 'good' ???:

Comments

osakkeenomistaja

Hei,

Varmasti, Tomi, suomalaisena tiedät että Nokia on tärkeä yritys suomalaisille sekä työnantajana, että yhä enemmän sijoituskohteena. Eikö olisikin hyödyllisempää että Nokian ongelmista keskuteltaisiin rakentavasti ja kannustavasti?

Uudet Lumiat on hienoja ja täysin kilpailukykyisiä laitteita. Uskon että positiivisella ilmapiirillä Nokia saisi yhä enemmän tuulta purjeisiin. Tiedäthän sanonnan: "Hyvä kello kauas kuuluu, paha vielä kauemmas". Siksi ihmettelenkin suomalaisten pahan kellon soittoa. Onhan Nokia on edelleen tärkeä yritys suomalaisille.

Uudet WP8 puhelimet lienee myynyt hyvin, koska Lumioiden keskihinta nousi huomattavasti, vaikka vanhat Lumiat meni hurjaan alennusmyyntiin heti Q4:n alussa ja halpaan päähän tuli vielä Lumia 510. Oletko kanssani samaa mieltä?

Kirjoitin tämän siksi suomenkielellä, koska englanniksi en osaa kovin monisanaisesti kirjoittaa.

Sander van der Wal

It will be interesting to track windows phone 8 compared to blackberry os 10.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all

We have here just above this comment, a comment in Finnish, from reader 'osakkeenomistaja' (literally shareholder). It is a heartfelt comment which I want to translate first into English, then respond to. I am sure there are others especially in Finland who share the sentiments by that reader. My translation of the comment:

Hi

Certainly as a Finn, Tomi you know that Nokia is an important company for Finns both as an employer and an investment. Wouldn't it be more useful that Nokia problems be discussed in a constructive and supportive way?

The new Lumia series are fine and competitive devices. I believe that with a more positive atmosphere Nokia could achieve ever more wind in its sails. You know the (Finnish) saying "a good bell is heard far, a bad bell is heard even further". That is why I am wondering about the ringing of the bad bells by Finns. Nokia is still an important company for Finns.

New Windows Phone 8 phones seem to have sold well, as the average sales prices for Lumia have risen considerably, even as older Lumias were discounted greatly right at the start of Q4 and the low end then got the Lumia 510. Do you agree with me?

I wrote this in Finnish because I am not that capable in writing English at this extent.

(Signed) shareholder

(end)

Thank you osakkeenomistaja. I appreciate the comment, I hope you agree the translation is to my best ability accurate in depicting what you said, and if you feel I made some wrong impression, let me know, I will edit this English version to your satisfaction. I also would like the non-Finnish speakers to be able to join in and read our discussion, so obviously I will respond to you in English, next. But thank you for the deeply thoughtful comment.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

notzed

Well someone's still buying the things.

I was utterly mortified when my niece came home with a new lumia 820 that her mum got her for her birthday .... and it was her own choice to get it over a galaxy s3. Kids will be kids I guess, and she did it just on the brand-name, although the sales chick no doubt lied saying how well they were selling and how she was going to get one herself. Maybe they're getting big commissions here in AUS to shift them. And there's no returning a bad decision here once you sign up for a 2 year contract. It wont even connect to any computer in the house (free of apple and microsoft) - although she's still happy with it since at least it has an sd slot.

Either are totally overkill and a rather expensive way for the faecebook console, music player, and alarm clock she uses it for.

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear osakkeenomistaja

Thank you for your comment. I am pretty sure there are many more in Finland who share similar thoughts, so I wanted to write a sincere and considered reply to you.

I totally understand why you would feel that I am now saying very bad things about Nokia, perhaps unduly negative. I know what kind of press attention I have been getting recently, especially in Finland, and know at many forums like Kauppalehti Keskustelut, I am thought of as the crazy Anti-Christ who says nothing but hostile things about Nokia. Certainly most recent comments I have been quoted, and also, most recent Nokia-specific blog articles I have posted - seem to be exceptionally hostile about Nokia. Its easy to think that I have a mission to destroy Nokia or to harm it. Nothing could be further from the truth. I love Nokia.

I am an ex-Nokia exec. I joined Nokia to build digital gateways and help put the internet onto mobile networks. I then was Nokia's first Segmentation Manager, ie I led the team that studied Nokia customers deeply to then focus Nokia's offerings more accurately to those customer needs. I cannot discuss that work obviously, but the Economist wrote in 2002, that the Nokia Segmentation model was a major key to how Nokia grew past Motorola. My last job at Nokia Headquarters was to set up and lead the Global Consulting Department, where I often would then sit with the top strategic teams and top management of Nokia's carrier/operator customers around the world, in helping build their strategies. I know not only Nokia very deeply but I am rare in ex-Nokia staff to have sat at numerous Nokia clients - operators/carriers at their strategy level to understand their needs.

I left Nokia in 2001, ie almost a decade before Elop came to town. I moved here to Asia, so I haven't even been in Finland when he arrived. I have never met the man. As to 'being fired' or 'bearing a grudge' or being disgruntled in some way - again, nothing could be further from the truth. I am the most published author in mobile - 12 books including the fastest-selling telecoms book of all time. I've had Nokia colleagues contribute to my books, I've had one (ex) Nokia colleague write the Foreword to one of my books, Nokia ex President Pekka Ala-Pietila, and I've had one Nokia colleague co-edit one of my books. My first book, Services for UMTS was an official Nokia book, sold at the Nokia website and given to Nokia customers (operators/carriers) in large numbers.

Since I left, all through the 2000s decade, I was used by Nokia as their consultant, also often in public events, from major conferences where I was authorized to deliver official Nokia presentations on their behalf, to chairing Nokia conferences to presenting to Nokia customers (operators/carriers) on views of where the mobile industry is headed in deep executive seminars. Since I left Nokia, I have been seen in public at Nokia events from Finland to Egypt, from Colombia to Pakistan. I truly do love Nokia, if you cut me, I don't bleed red, I bleed Nokia blue.

I will pause here, following on in the next comment.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear osakkeenomistaja (part 2)

So I love Nokia eh? And why the hostility now? Have I become bitter or did Nokia somehow screw me or what is wrong? Again, you cannot possibly know this but let me explain. I wrote 'the' book on mobile industry business, literally, the first business/strategy book for the mobile telecoms industry (M-Profits, released in 2002). It is my deepest competence, how to win and lose in this industry. Because of that exceptional competence, I of course comment on whatever strategic business decisions any major company makes in this industry, from good decisions (like Sony buying out its partner Ericsson from the SonyEricsson partnership and then focusing on making smartphones a key to Sony corporate strategy, or how Samsung took over MeeGo after Nokia abandoned it) to bad ones (like Blackberry launching tablets or Microsoft suddenly announcing that the Windows Phone 7.5 smartphones could not be upgraded to Windows Phone 8).

When I see strategic blunders that threaten a company's future, I am very openly critical of them, such as when Motorola and Palm died, or when Sprint-Nextel was openly feuding with its consumers (the CEO was later fired for that mistake). So this, what you now see from Tomi Ahonen being 'negative' about Nokia, is not particular to Nokia, I was equally negative about past mistakes by other companies too. The only difference is, that Elop has made MORE mistakes than any others - after all, he has established a world record in management failure. You can't do such big damage by only one mistake. Elop has been a serial mistake-making machine. But you can go through the past years on this blog and my press interviews, and you'll see, I was very hostile for example about Sprint-Nextel and how it treated its customers, demanding that the CEO and Chief Marketing Officer be fired.

So while you now see me being negative about Nokia, in fact, it is my professional opinion, I am 'the' man for the industry, as I did write 'the' business book to explain how this industry works. I have been critical of strategy mistakes by others, and I have been critical of Nokia prior to Elop, for example very critical of the late stages of Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo the previous Nokia CEO and Nokia's problems at that time in 2009 and 2010.

But I have also been positive of Nokia recently, you will not have heard of that, it doesn't get the attention in the Finnish press haha.. I was VERY supportive of the launch of the N9 and MeeGo in 2011 and again, VERY supportive of the launch of the 808 Pureview in 2012. I was also expressly congratulating Elop for some of his decisions such as when he reversed his silly idea to make Nokia naming purely numbers, and introduced some names (Lumia, Asha, Pureview) into the Nokia naming scheme. I am not anti-Nokia, I am not anti-Elop, I am not anti-Finland. I am anti-stupidity. Its like if you ask Mika Hakkinen about how a current Formula 1 driver is performing, or ask Jari Kurri about how some hockey player is performing. They will tell you truthfully, its their professional opinion. I do that on this blog and in my books - and I am paid very well for offering that strategy consulting guidance by essentially all major companies of this industry, from Finnish familiars like Nokia, Sonera, Elia, Digita etc, to international giants like China Mobile, Vodafone, NTT DoCoMo, Ericsson, LG, RIM (Motorola), Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Google, etc etc etc. As I am the most published author in mobile - and my books are referenced in over 120 books by other authors, I am arguably THE most competent expert to comment on strategy matters in this industry. At least the most influential expert - so said Forbes when they surveyed all mobile industry experts a year ago.

I'll post this and continue..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear osakeenomistaja (part 3)

Now, about Elop and Nokia. I warmly welcomed Elop when he joined Nokia. I was fully supportive of his first 5 months, when you no doubt know, Nokia share price rose 11% after falling 55% under OPK's previous 3 years.

When Elop announced his Microsoft strategy, I immediately said on Twitter, and on this blog, that this was an excellent move by Microsoft, but catastrophic for Nokia. Then, after explaining why I saw it a big problem, I went through the systematic analysis to see, IF it could work. I came to the conclusion, that while it was unlikely, it was POSSIBLE for the Microsoft-Nokia partnership to succeed, and for Nokia to continue as a major smartphone giant even with Windows Phone as the operating system. Please go to February 2011 to read that blog. I did say, it was a high-risk venture, but it might succeed. I didn't think it would, but I did say it might. And I said we had to give Elop time to implement his strategy.

Then I prepared my professional opinion, my forecast, of how Nokia's market would develop under Elop and the best case scenario. I said that Nokia's market share would fall catastrophically during 2011, but stabilize during 2012. I was crucified on this blog for that forecast. It was the most negative and brutal forecast by any published analyst on the planet, there were others who promised Nokia and Microsoft would have 25% or better market share now. My first forecast said Nokia would end now, Q4 of 2012, with 7.0 million smartphones sold and 3% market share (as you know, Nokia ended with 6.6 million smartphones and yes, 3% market share). That was THE most negative forecast published in the spring of 2011, no other forecaster suggested Nokia to fall to single digits in 2012. Yet, while I was the most negative forecaster, my forecast turned out to be too optimistic !!

First, note, I DO KNOW this industry, arguably 'better than anyone else' haha, definitely the most accurate forecaster of this industry and BY FAR the most accurate forecaster of Nokia. Others promised you to now see 25% market share for Nokia smartphones. Would you, as shareholder, want that ridiculous guidance or would you prefer to know in May of 2011, that 19 months later, Nokia's market share would have fallen from what it was then, 24% to what it is now, 3%. I am sure that as a shareholder, your primary interest is to have accurate info about your investments, not lies and ridiculous promises? Please do feel free to search the internet and every single published forecast for Nokia during Spring 2011, to find if anyone else dared suggest Nokia to fall this low this year. Nobody else saw this collapse as I did. Thats not a fluke, I AM the most accurate forecaster of this industry.

If Elop had limited his damage to the Burning Platforms memo (that Elop himself admitted to the Nokia shareholders meeting in April 2012, that it caused damage to Nokia Symbian sales - what I loudly complained about here on this blog in early February 2011, when others thought the memo was actually a smart thing to do by the CEO) and the Microsoft strategy, then I would not have had much more to complain about. Except, that you know very well, Elop has continuously made unbelievable mistakes that are widely ridiculed and questioned.

Like when the N9 was announced, and Nokia saw the first jump in the collapse of the Nokia share price, you'll remember, suddenly everyone was falling in love with MeeGo and Nokia and the N9, Elop said the next day in Helsingin Sanomat interview, that Nokia will not release more MeeGo based phones, no matter how well the N9 would sell. What idiot CEO says that? If Apple release a new iPad, the CEO would never say, I don't care how well it sells, we won't do more of them. "I don't care how well it sells" is so ridiculous as a statement, Elop should have been fired on the spot. It killed the N9 momentum.

Or what of the Der Stern interview, again about the N9. Der Stern as you know is the weekly newsmagazine in Germany, like Time in English or in Finland, Talouselama. Der Stern wrote a magnificent review of the N9, ending it with the endorsement, that because the N9 was not being sold in Germany, Germans should fly to Austria or Switzerland to get one! This is totally unprecedented praise, something only Apple can get. If Toyota got this kind of praise for a car it isn't currently selling in Germany, Mr Toyoda would jump on the next plane and rush to Germany to pose on the cover of the next issue of Der Stern promising Germans, yes, this car is coming to Germany. But not Elop. He refuses to let the N9 be sold in Germany.

And one more, Meltemi. Nokia has said many times that the Windows Phone OS is not suitable for low-cost smartphones that are the mass market in Africa, India, etc. Nokia had been developing the Meltemi OS for years, it was weeks from launch, when Elop killed the project and fired the staff developing it. Meltemi could not have been any overlap or threat to Lumia and Windows Phone, as it was targeting only the low-end phones where Asha is now sold. Meltemi was Nokia's smartphone strategy for the next Billion people. Elop killed it, and within weeks of the first phones being show. This is a massive mistake again.

If Elop had only made one or two mistakes, I would have written one or two blogs about Nokia mistakes, and then perhaps, if the problems were really damaging, a follow-up blog a year later or so. But Elop makes strategic mistakes almost weekly. I do have to comment, if I see it is truly a strategic blunder

(continuing next)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear osakkeenomistaja (part 4)

Finally, about the strategic mistakes. Have you read the SEC Filing Form 20-F that Nokia published for the New York Stock Exchange in March 2011? Nokia identified several hundred risks to this strategy. Please go read that. Its not my words, it was Nokia's testimony. I have not invented these problems.

So. I looked at the new Nokia Microsoft strategy in 2011, and I saw massive problems with it. You've since seen, that whereas Nokia smartphones grew 53% in the last year before this strategy, Nokia has seen smartphone sales fall 25% in 2011 and fall 55% in 2012. Nokia's smartphone unit delivered one third of Nokia revenues and 40% of Nokia profits in 2010 when Elop took over. Since he announced the new strategy, the smartphone unit lost half its revenues and fell into losses and generated 48% loss per smartphone sold in Q3. You cannot like that as a shareholder.

The ratings agencies (Moody's, S&P and Fitch) liked Elop's first 5 months and upgraded Nokia from the OPK years to one notch below perfect. You know that all three ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded Nokia due to Elop's strategy and now all three rate Nokia as junk. Its not that Tomi Ahonen somehow is bad-mouthing Nokia, it is the reality that the RATINGS AGENCIES see. I just saw it first. Is it not a value to you as a shareholder, that I report honestly what I see?

When Elop introduced his strategy in February 2011, you remember he promised that the transition from Symbian to Windows Phone would achieve 1-to-1 transition bringing ex-Symbian Nokia smartphone owners happily into the Windows Phone world. You know how that turned out. Out of every 20 loyal Nokia customers that were attempted to migrate to Lumia, 17 ran away and selected a competitor phone. Of the 3 that were willing to try the Lumia, two are so disgusted by the choice that they will not replace their current Windows Phone smartphone with another Windows Phone unit, they will leave Nokia. Only one in 20 Symbian customers has been migrated with satisfaction to Windows Phone. That means, that Elop is - at best - succeeding with 5% of his strategy and failing 95%. Do you want Nokia to be 1/20th the size it used to be? I don't. I love Nokia.

If Elop had made one or two mistakes, I would say, give the Canadian PC guy a chance to learn this industry. But as Elop keeps making massive mistakes almost weekly, plunging Nokia into ever deeper trouble, I have to yell about it here on this blog. Elop is a cancer, he is to winning what water is to fire. He must be replaced.

Thank you for writing, I really do feel for all who believed in Nokia. You were screwed. Please go read the Form 20-F. You will pull your eyes out, when you see what all risks Nokia saw on the horizon, and how utterly Elop has mismanaged his company to achieve all those risks.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear osakkeenomistaja

That was about 'being negative' or being honest. Now about your second point, that Lumia phones are fine devices and selling well. No, please do not delude yourself, they are not. Have you read the 101 faults in Lumia list? Or the more recent analysis of what all is still missing from Windows Phone 8 at All About Symbian? The Lumia smartphones are at best mediocre devices, they have some good things, but a lot of really bad things. Like the clock. All Nokia phones recently have had the ability to display the clock while in idle mode. Nokia is in fact the world's most used clock brand, ahead of Timex, Seiko and Citizen. But a new Nokia Lumia buyer suddenly can't see the time anymore. Now you have to wake up the Lumia just to see the time. Thats regressing. Or no QWERTY keyboards, no advanced cameras, or the Bluetooth doesn't do file transfers, etc etc etc. The Nokia owners are accustomed to many things that old Symbian - and new Maemo/MeeGo devices did very well - even Nokia's basic S40 Asha phones do - but Lumia doesn't.

So that is why the survey of Lumia owners by Yankee Group found that 4 out of 10 Lumia owners hated the device so much, they rated it worst out of 5 grades. Or the new Bernstein survey of smartphone owners found that only 37% of Windows Phone owners are willing to buy another Windows Phone device, while Apple gets 95% for the iPhone and Android gets 75% loyalty. No, osakkeenomistaja, Lumia is not a fine phone, it is a disaster. Not my view - these are independent surveys of consumers. Which is why many operators/carriers refuse to sell the Lumia. Which is why Nokia's prices fall catastrophically weeks after launch. Which is why Nokia's smartphones have almost no resale value. If you, osakkeenomistaja truly do believe that Lumia is a good phone, you will be severely disappointed when results come in and repeatedly disappoint you. Please study the industry and consumer opinions.

As to Windows Phone 8 Lumia 'selling well' - no it isn't. It is selling BETTER than Lumia did in Q3, but is not doing well. Two years ago, in Q4 of 2010, when Nokia last released a flagship phone on Symbian, and last released a new OS version, Symbian S^3 before the Elop Effect, Nokia in the first quarter of its sales, did 5 million sales, 4 million of it the N8 flagship. Now Nokia has been trying to sell Lumia for 5 quarters, and STILL hasn't hit 5 million per quarter. This, while the industry has more than doubled in size. If Elop was doing only as well as OPK or Anssi Vanjoki, he'd sell 8.6 million Lumia 920 flagship phones in Q4 plus milions more other Lumias, not 4.4 million total Lumia. You can of course believe Nokia is 'improving'. I see Nokia being destroyed.

Thank you for writing. Does this make sense? Please do come back and lets talk some more.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cycnus

Dear osakkeenomistaja,

A good Chess-master is the one who could see further than their enemy/competitor. Obviously, Tomi could see the 'damage'/result of what Elop did further than Elop did.

If you truly love nokia, you shouldn't hate tomi for blowing the whistle. You should thank Tomi for warning you/nokia.

Lasko

Appreciated, Tomi.

Przemysławw Lib

@Tomi

Good work. Especially since you predict based on multiple sources, dig a bit deeper (other "casual" forecasters did not even compared Nokia growth with idusty growth, nor meantioned lack of profitability... Or even are still dreaming about "Quick Victorious War"...)

Anyway, we need new word for mass DELUSION, where FACT from one area, force us to create our own reality in other area. Even now we hear too much about WinP as platform that is doing good, or that it can not fail, or that it will rule, while after "because" there is nothing (or just "because.. because it is MS product!..").

osakkeenomistaja

Thank you for your comments Tomi. I will answer once more in finnish beacuse my english skills are not good enough to do it in english.

Kirjoitit niin paljon eri asioita että muistankohan niitä kaikkia. Kuitenkin en ole seurannut kommenttejasi muihin yhtiöihin kuin Nokiaan liittyen.

Olen ollut Nokian osakkeen omistajana jo ennen Elopin aikaa. Luotin siihen mitä Nokian johto kertoi strategiamuutoksen aikoihin ja minulla ei ollut käsitystä, miten paljon eri puheet ja teot tulee vaikuttamaan symbianin myyntiin. Jos olisin asian ymmärtänyt, olisin myynyt osakkeet silloin. Olen siis edelleen omistaja ja tukevasti miinuksella. Myös, kun asun Suomessa niin täällä tuo puhelinmyynnin jakautuminen, ja sen seuraaminen, hieman vääristyy koska Suomi on nokiamaa. Olen samaa mieltä että Nokian johto on tehnyt vääriä asioita samoin kun on annettu huonoja lausuntoja. Niitä emme kuitenkaan saa tekemättömäksi. Nokian pitää vain oppia niistä.

Alkuperäisen viestini tarkoitus oli että toivon Nokian ympärille muodostuvan enemmän positiivisia asioita ja puheita. Ihmettelen suomalaista talouslehdistöä miten se kirjoittaa Nokiasta lähes yksinomaan negatiivisia artikkeleita. Onko Nokia kohdellut joskus aiemmin kotimaista lehdistöä huonosti ja nyt sitten lehdistö maksaa Nokialle "potut pottuina"?

Toivonkin että Nokialla alkaa nyt puhaltamaan paremmat tuulet ja saamme lukea myös sinun ylläpitämästä blogista yhä enemmän positiivisia merkkejä. Se on kuitenkin monen suomalaisen, niin työntekijän kuin osakkeenomistajan, etu.

osakkeenomistaja

Dear cycnus,

I don't hate Tomi or anybody else. Everyone has right to his opinion.

I only wanted to say that I would like to see more positive atmosphere around Nokia.

Winter

Besides the improbability that WP8 and Lumia become a success, there is no way Nokia could survive a WP8 success.

Microsoft is a money making machine. They will try to monetize and extract any value from "partners". In the PC business, MS extracts the complete margin from OEMs, giving only some back in the form of their Windows marketing program. Dell's profits are mostly what crumbs MS gives them for "marketing Windows".

Whenever the Lumia becomes profitable, we can be pretty sure that MS will knock on the door for their share of the profits, which will be all of it. Only crumbs will be left for Nokia.

So there is no way Nokia can win. Either WP8 fails and Nokia loses, or WP8 is a success, and all profits go to MS and Nokia loses.

Lasko

@osakkeenomistaja

Because it isn't going to work this way and people don't accept it anymore.

Just take a look at the data posted by the Yankee Group or Bernstein Research. There _are_ in fact people who buy Nokia and Windows Phone products, but they simply return it or refuse to buy another one - irregardless of positive or negative reviews.

Or take a look at the marketing budget for the Lumias or Windows Phone. Never has been spent that much money to provide 'positives' and 'incentives' about Nokia and the products - and still literally noone is buying those products.

There problem is horrible management and a horrible product, not bad press. So even if you stop publishing bad press, you still end up with horrible management and a horrible product.

The only thing you are going to achieve with non-negative press is that you continue to kid yourself, and that decrease to chance of solving your problems by simply ignoring them.

Things don't go away just because you close your eyes and you stop seeing them.

Ehao

Wow, I am on the weird part of Internet again

Tester

@Winter:

>> So there is no way Nokia can win. Either WP8 fails and Nokia loses, or WP8 is a success, and all profits go to MS and Nokia loses.

I agree that there's no way Nokia can win. It WP fails they lose for sure.
But if WP wins even when factoring out licensing costs it would be Samsung to take the profits because they move far more aggressively.

Of course if Microsoft tries to do their OEM squeezing game again most of the OEMs will simply say 'screw you', stop producing Windows phones and move to other platforms. That's a game only a monopolist in complete control of its business can do. MS won't ever be able to get there in mobile with the current competitors.

So, regardless of the company's attitude, if they ever try to play this game in mobile, game would be over faster than they can say 'boo'.

Tester

@rew:

Do we need to play this game again?

It's called 'forecasting', not 'clairvoyance'.

Not always, if you try to extrapolate future data from what you have available, the result will be correct.

If, for example, there was a minor aberration in Kantar's Symbian numbers, of course they will affect the precision of the forecast. That's simple math - especially if it comes to low marketshare products like Nokia currently has to offer.

Winter

@Tester
"That's a game only a monopolist in complete control of its business can do. MS won't ever be able to get there in mobile with the current competitors."

But Nokia does not have that option. They have welded themselves to the MS train.

Tester

@Nokiawatcher:

That's the typical kind of Microsoft statistics-tweaking we are known for.

Of course relative growth is higher if you start with almost nothing and will make any statistic look great. What should not be ignored is absolute percentage:

WP grew from 0.62% to 3.24% in that time period. Ouch!

(Android grew by more than 7 percentage points (3 times as much as WP) in the same time period, btw, but since it started well over 20 the relative growth is only 1/10th of what Windows Phone gets here.)

Sorry, but anyone using these kinds of statistics loses all credibility in my book. It's an act of desperation to make oneself look good.

osakkeenomistaja

@Lasko

Johtamisessa on parantamisen varaa, siinä olen ehdottomasti samaa mieltä. Tuote, siis WP on mielestäni kuitenkin hyvä. Käyttöjärjestelmä on sulava ja ulkoasu miellyttävä. Ulkoasu sopivasti erilainen kuin muilla.

Lehdistöstä sen verran että Nokiassa olisi myös hyviä asioita kirjoitettavaksi. Kuitenkaan suomalainen lehdistö ei niitä halua syystä tai toisesta tuoda esille.

Niin, ja en sulje silmiäni ikäviltä asioilta. Olen tiedostanut ne jo aikoja sitten. Kuitenkin kun olen tänne asti mukana roikkunut niin tyhmää olisi nyt hypätä junasta pois.

Nokiawatcher

Thanks. But do you think it will continue beyond 3% of phone owners, or will the growth in UK stall soon or even go down again when Blackberry 10 and the cheap iPhone come on the scene?

Tester

@Nokiawatcher:

The overall impression seems to be that it'd remain at low numbers. Even the most positive outlook right now, IDC's 4 year projection, only says 11-12% for 2016. (Last year they predicted 19% for 2015 so even they had to revise down quite heavily.)

It comes to the simple factor whether people actually WANT to buy Windows phones. Currently it doesn't look like that's the case. I personally think that Windows Phone 8 already had its window of opportunity. Soon the Android makers will release their next generation with full HD displays and other boundary-pushing features. I'm sorry, but the Lumias won't have any chance against that.

So, judging from the platform's capabilities, overall market reception, user satisfaction and developments among competing manufacturers my estimate is that 5-6% is the limit - but only with discount pricing and targetting low end customers.

Lasko

@osakkeenomistaja

It is absolutely fine (and absolutely valid) that you think that the Lumia is a good product; but the problem is not what you think, the problem is what others think. And we know that 98% of the market thinks that it is not a good (enough) product, and that of this remaining 2% 2 out of 3 people will not buy another of this product; we know that carriers and retailers do not support the product (enough) as well. This is the problem. And this problem is NOT caused by the press.

Windows Phone is a niche prodcut, but Nokia is not a niche company - that's the 'horrible' in the 'horrible' product.

Yes, the media is to blame for 'There is no news like bad news', but this is not a problem specific to Nokia, and this is NOT the problem OF Nokia. There problem is the exclusive Windows Phone strategy.

And of course Nokia should switch from this strategy immediately - there is no success with it, because there is no success for Windows Phone - at least not at a rate Nokia would need.

"When you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount."

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Recent Comments

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati