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« Final Score on Most Important Forecast of 2011 - Once Again Tomi Ahonen Most Accurate Forecaster in Mobile (Nokia, Lumia, Windows) | Main | Nokia Disaster Told One Picture at a Time: Today Picture 7: When is a Platform "Burning": The Test Of CEO Sanity (alternately titled:) Is Elop Really This Delusional? »

January 29, 2013


Earendil Star

OK, I start: September 30, 2013.

After an endless three year manure tenure.

Tomi T Ahonen

I didn't mean for entries to be given this way, Earendil, via the blog - but its ok, I'll take it and enter you, thanks.

I am actually closing the contest on Twitter in some hours, so if anyone else wants to enter via the blog, please hurry...

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

you're in John

Tomi :-)

So Vatar

I fear the worst:
Jan 15 2014 it is when Flop leaves, just after Nokia announced another drop in smartphone market share and Goldman Sucks got the task to sell what's left of Nokia.


Feb 1,2013. No reason for the date, just wishful thinking.

Tomi T Ahonen

Got you both, So Vatar and new_guy

Tomi :-)

Interested to know

Is there any indication that the people who matter are finally fed up with him?

I mean Nokia has already spun their dismal quarter that had both the WP8 launch AND Christmas so that people believe it was a success. They also warned next quarter was going to be bad so people won't expect much then.

Will they spin it as genius Elop rescued Nokia from the burning Symbian platform and now that his visionary plan has been executed, some fresh blood needs to come in to keep Nokia on this course?


13 September 2013. If That's any time near the Q3 report.


Would you, Tomi clarify one thing, just to avoid unnecessary discussions.

"Or if Nokia is split in two, with two CEO's - then that is the date."

You don't count NSN becoming a separate company such a case? They already have a CEO and one might assume that if NSN's becomes fully independent, Suri will (?) continue there and Elop would continue with what's left of Nokia.


I don't think Stephen Elop will be sacked and he will stay on board until Nokia is safely driven into the ground. If the BOD was working for the interest of Nokia, then he would have been sacked long ago.


My pick is Feb 11th 2013.


Dear Tomi,

Please clarify why do you consider only Elop has to be fired (or resign) after this disaster? Has he taken all this crazy decisions by himself? Nobody else is to blaim and also has to step down?
It seems to me that his departure will make him look like a scape goat, when the entire board backed his decisions.


Elop will leave when Nokia will run out of money...

When will it happen ? Hard to say.

But if I had to bet on one date, I would say one week before Q4-2013 results... so it should be in the 2014 Jan 13-19th... so Let's say Jan 13th, to not copy So Vatar ;)


Nobody will fire Elop anytime soon.

Microsoft and American funds control today Nokia, like they did 2 years ago.

Elop is doing an excellent job for Microsoft, in 2013, is looking that with micro sales of 6m Lumia per quarter Nokia will have to pay Microsoft offsetting the 250m support that did cost billions of losses in Nokia balances.

Without Nokia Windows Phone will be dead already.
Microsoft with surface tablet shows that alone has no hope to sales any decent amount of devices.

Elop will stay much longer as you think



ps: Only way to get rid of Elop would be a miracle from Finnish Justice Department : investigate and imprison the criminal CEO

Tomi T Ahonen

Ok gang

The contest entry time is now closed. All who entered before this comment are in - including Tired, Michael and vladkr, but anyone submitting an entry after this comment will be ignored sorry. the contest is now closed. good luck to all who entered

Tomi Ahonen :-)


I'm surprised to see that some didn't answer the contest (E. Murtazin and other specialists), neither have I seen your answer Tomi :

- they didn't have time to answer?
- too hard to answer?
- refused to answer for some other reason?

But I agree with Elm that Elop will remain on position while Nokia survives.

However, I don't think a miracle can come from Finland, as Finnish authorities can't do anything (Nokia is a private company). The only ones who can do anything are Stock Exchange authorities, but that's only if they can prove there's insider trading (which is quite hard, even if only one knows the facts exist)


It's still 29th Jan here in Finland, so I go with 15/7/2013 :)


15 March 2015. too late :(

Come on, Toi. Elop is good at his "job", he is executing the prime directive.
"Promote Window Phone by any means necessary"
Even if it means promoting competiton's WinPho, running Nokia to the ground, giving IP away...

I imagine he made many one-sided contracts with Microsoft. He leaves his position when MS loses interest in Nokia.

Wayne Borean

January 1, 2020.

I think the board is locked in mentally, and will hang on to him until he dies, retires, or Nokia goes bankrupt.


Wayne Borean

Someone posted this on Groklaw - first here is the link:

And here is the text:


Windows phone compared to two generation old HTC

Authored by: kg on Tuesday, January 29 2013 @ 02:27 AM EST

Things must be really desperate in Redmond. I recently received an email from Windows Phone Insider. They linked a video demonstrating how much better the Nokia Lumea 920 is at taking video. The odd thing about it is that they compared it to a discontinued (!) 2 generation old HTC Inspire 4G released February 2011.

Now granted, Microsoft released the video last November. But really? Comparing a current phone to a model almost 2 years old? I'd expect better. It shouldn't be about the upgrade path. Everyone expects something better from a newer phone. Is the Lumea really so bad that they don't dare face it off against a current model?

Link to video here

Linguist and Open Source Developer


Since I don't know how to make links work here, the text about a link above means this YouTube video:



Hans Hellström

But if Elop wanted to drive Nokia into the ground why didn't he just stick to symbian and let run into the ground even with the anna and belle uprgrade it is still far behind iOS and Android in useability. Meego as you wrote on Feb. 14th in your autopsy text "First, we cannot blame Elop for this. He did not kill MeeGo in February 2011. He was one of the finalists for CEO, who had to propose a plan to solve Nokia's severe crisis. That involved painful cuts no matter how you looked at it. The Board approved a plan in September, where one part meant MeeGo was dead. Elop didn't kill MeeGo now. It died last September and the Board approved that plan where MeeGo would go." Meego was a system with promise but no real ecosystem to support it. BB10 and Ubuntu phone OS have the same problemm right now. Windows phone had atleast somekind of ecosystem round 75000apps during the 800 launch. One more thing if Elop wants to drive Nokia into the ground why must the company post profit during Q4 and cut its Dividend in order to back up cash reserves, I mean give a dividend to the shareholder so that the company would be faster out of money the stock will fall to the summer low it must god forbid if it would go up. The last thing why did Elop make the 920 such a good phone that you have to wait to buy it?!? i mean they could just have sold the old 900 with a wp8 upgrade that would have done trick atleast then you could get one now.


@Hans Hellström :

1- Elop is distributing Nokia's assets to friends (Patent trolls + Microsoft). That takes time.

2- keeping Nokia alive, letting its share to follow a roller-coaster pattern allows well informed people to speculate on it, and then to make a lot of money.

--> The longer Elop keeps Nokia in a bad shape, the more he (and his friends) makes money. (think that variations on Nokia's share are very ample and frequent, and he controls movements every time he opens his mouth)

Hans Hellström

@vladkr Maybe but that's bit of long shot since sock price has doubled since summer when Tomi was so sure that Microsoft or someone would buy Nokia. The patents sold were mostly Meego related stuff sold to Jolla. If elop controls the stock movement with his mouth isn't it in everyones intrest for the stock to up?!? since the short sellers took quite a beating during the stock rise during christmas. You also have to remeber that the stocks in IT/technology sector are quite volatile like Apple, Nokia, Rim and others with the exception of Microsoft whose stock has been hovering around 30USD for the past 10 years(2008 fianacial crisis excluded). When it comes to patents it would be much easier to run the company right into the ground and not even bother to make course correction it would be hell of alot cheaper to buy them. People tend to forget that Nokia was on a collison course and heading for doom long before Elop took over the markets where changing with iOS and android. @John why would 4,4 million people or even 5-6million if Nokia would have had enough to supply buy a WP Device from Nokia alone in Q4?


@ Hans Hellström

and small extension:

> Meego was a system with promise but no real ecosystem to support it.

MeeGo and Symbian formed one ecosystem through Qt. And right now BB10 and Ubuntu Phone would be part of that same ecosystem.

> BB10 and Ubuntu phone OS have the same problemm right now.

You seem to have missed that there was an Android runtime for MeeGo and BB10 ships with an Ansdroid runtime.

This means they have access and form one ecosystem with Android.

How will you beat that with the failed WP eco-ghosttown?

Hans Hellström

@Spawn Yes but that would require the app maker to put in the BB10 conversion which i doubt that every one has made and it takes time. Ubuntu cant run android apps and building up an ecosystem takes time. So if WP market place is so DEAD does it have over 400+apps submitted every day and why would they have to hire extra staff at microsoft and cancel Xmas holidays for the app submission staff because no one is apparently putting apps there.Can you give me one reason that we shouldn't let windows phone succeed since I think its good from a customer point of view that there is competetition that pushes development of better products and not a duopoly between Android and iOS and like Apple and google are any more evil than Microsoft? Altough my money on the new competitors is on Jolla simply for the reason that Jolla can run android apps and UI looks good.

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