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« On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia | Main | Picture Tells it Better - first in series of Nokia Strategy Analysis diagrams, how Nokia smartphone sales collapsed »

January 02, 2013

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eduardo

@Wayne

"Where Nokia is unique, is that they are the only company that has been accurate about the dangers!"

Yeah, that's right. The reason the dangers don't actually happen is the SEC requires corporations to list every risk they can possibly imagine, short of the Earth being hit by an asteroid, even risks that are highly unlikely. But in this case they all actually did.

Spawn

@vladkr

> Nokia cannot differentiate, despite strong partnership with MS; surprizingly, HTC managed to release a 12Mpix Windows Phone (HTC Titan II, running wp 7.5). How come Nokia couldn't do better with wp8, and the help of both MS (supposed), and Zeiss ?

Good point. Add that to tbe ever growing list of Elop's execution failures which are separated from Elop's ever growing list of planing errors. On the first list there are a few things named byToi already like those 121 Lumia bugs, the missing qwery model, that its still and only the N9 Lanku design all of the time, etc.

All of HTC's WP devices are more polished and competative then the Lumia. HTC never shipped a stock WP unlike Nokia which is as much stock as it can get plus there own app collection. Could you imagine what somebody like Samsung could do to Nokia's WP market share if they commit to WP? IF customers would buy Windows Phone or Tablet (not going to happen but IF) an Samsung goes in Nokia would be out of the WP market within weeks.

cycnus

@Tomi

Quote "....The Windows Phone Lumia series is priced far too high to sell in the volumes Nokia needs. Which is why for each release, almost instantly...."

The problem for Nokia/MS were with 2012 (pre-WP8), single core device like Lumia 800/900 have the same hardware value as US$ 200 - US$ 250 Android device, just like Samsung Galaxy S (at that time). When the dual core Lumia 920 arrive, it's only comparable to US$ 230 - US$ 280 android device like Samsung Galaxy SII (at that time). MS/Nokia were over-value-ing their product.

--

Quote "..... The point is, that Elop admitted to the Nokia shareholders that many carriers refuse to sell Nokia smartphones now after the Microsoft strategy was released, and Elop admitted that the Microsoft partnership was explicitly the cause of that sales boycott....."

Tomi, When Elop wrote in 20-F that China market share will fall, do you think Elop were also surprised that Microsoft will make Europe market to fall? Should he also write that in 20-F for his butt to remain safe?? Nokia AGM 2013 would be interesting.

BTW, Elop should also make a book titled "BIGGEST LOOSER"

cycnus

@Interested to know

"Even the general public are now seeing that the emperor has no clothes."

LOL
BIG LOL
I think we need a picture of Balmer head slapped into the picture of emperor has no clothes, print a poster, t-shirt, sticker and do a campaign that Balmer never forget.

@Louis

"That WP8 depends totally on ActiveSync for Gmail and there is no App apparently wasn't a serious consideration. Since Google has a decent idea of who actually uses its services, this suggests WP was really tiny."

I also very curios about this. This is the first time that Microsoft were not at monopolist and were forced to go the open way (SyncML, CalDAV, WebDAV). Good Job Google

Spawn

And the WP7 Lumia PR dirt repeats.

Lots of articles saying Lumia 920 is a sales succes in China, eg
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Second-batch-of-Nokia-Lumia-920-models-leads-to-long-lines-in-China_id38154

That is in Nokias Shanghai shol which, oh wonder, will be closed soon cause of bad sales
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20120716000004&cid=1102

Even to stupid for PR tricks. In line with how bad the Lumia Pureview photo-lie was planed, executed and finally discovered and hit back.

Spawn

more things are fishy about the China sales news. If you search for "Shanghai Securities News Nokia" hundreds of articles with the exact same wording appear. All give Shanghai Securities News as reference (no link, in no article) but if you search Shanghai Securities News there is no such article...

Spawn

@Louis
@cycnus

> "That WP8 depends totally on ActiveSync for Gmail and there is no App apparently wasn't a serious consideration. Since Google has a decent idea of who actually uses its services, this suggests WP was really tiny."

This, the switch away from ActivSync, could also be related to the list of Microsoft patents used to get manufactors to pay an Android-tax to Microsoft maxe it to google. We know the FAT32 long filename patent is used (since TomTom) even when invalid as waz proven by Linus Torvalds himself. Google worked around. Very likely ActiveSync is a patent minefield too and by switching away Google removes some more possible patent claims.

Kenny

In Form 20-F Nokia constantly refers to Microsoft as a partner. What kind of partnership is this when one side only takes and the other side only gives? This is not a partnership it is a parasitic relationship.

Let's take a look at what Nokia has given to Microsoft. It has killed off Symbian, MeeGo and Meltemi so that they cannot compete with WP, it has tied itself exclusively to WP, it has promoted WP extensively, given thousands of Lumia phones to WP developers and even bequeathed its crown jewels, Nokia Maps to WP.

What did Nokia get in return? A big fat nothing. Nokia did not get any special access to the WP OS to customize it. Nor were they given WP8 earlier as a head start. Even the US$250 million given by MS per quarter was to be paid back in minimum WP licenses. To twist the knife in MS will soon release its own Surface phone.

As I said, this isn't a partnership it is one of those parasitic infections in which the invader takes over the mind and body of its host for its own purpose.

Kenny

Now Nokia wants to produce Win RT tablets which has already failed in the market with the likes of Microsoft Surface. This tablet is shunned by users due to the lack of apps as it cannot run normal Windows programs. When Win 8 tablets come out the Win RT tablets will die a quick death. So what gives?

MarcoAustria

Tomi Ahonen + ExNokia (+ both blogs) show us for what Christmas stands!
Kuduos!

MarcoAustria

@vladkr
“Nokia cannot differentiate, despite strong partnership with MS”
1) That was always to mislead, as Nokia is not preferred and never was. The Windows 8 ads show HTC phones most of the time. And then there were Elop and Ballmer on the stage, with this strong partnership talk. Now this is Steve (Ballmer) phone: HTC
http://cdn.wpcentral.com/sites/wpcentral.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/2012/12/Steves%20Phone.png
2) HTC calls its phones now with “Windows Phone” in the name: HTC Windows Phone 8X. So when you go to a store and want Windows and you get the choice between a Windows Phone and Lumia you take the Windows Phone.
3) I guess the best way to show, that Nokia has no possibility to differentiate is the comparison of the Lumia 920 vs the HTC 8x in the same color :
http://www.mobilefun.fr/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Nokia-Vs-HTC1.jpg
From a customer perspective is the design almost identical.
4) Would Microsoft be a strong partner (with integrity) and contribution, they would allow NONE of the above to happen (and they had the power to do so). But it is Microsoft and their mobile partners get screwed (see link in the next paragraph)

@Kenny
“What kind of partnership is this when one side only takes and the other side only gives?”
A Microsoft one … as you can review “In memoriam: Microsoft’s previous strategic mobile partners”
http://www.asymco.com/2011/02/11/in-memoriam-microsofts-previous-strategic-mobile-partners/

@Louis
“What's interesting is that we will see a bunch of QT/HTML5-based platforms soon: BB10, Unbuntu, Jolla, and Tizen. I suspect they will do as well as WebOS and MeeGo but, hey, you can never tell.”
Windows Phone carrier involvement none (not meant as sales partner)
Tizen and Sailfish have already carriers as partners.
I give the Tizen and Sailfish a better chance than WP, but as you say – you can never tell.

Lasko

We now have another official reason why Windows Phone doesn't sell. According to Microsoft it is all Googles fault [1].


@Spawn

That's how 'turfing works. Pay a pile of cash to a well-known news source to publish a sponsered article, and then flood the internet with positive buzz, refering to this article.

It was excatly the same with the "Nokia’s Lumia 920, the World’s Most Innovative Smartphone" article at Gizmodo [1], published by "Sponsored". 'Turfers around the globe - and here at this blog - still refer to this article as a proof what a "valuable website" has found about the new Lumias.

@CN

There is a difference between a 'strategic partnership' and a unilateral 'paid partnership'.

This is what we know from the OEMs, interviewed at the Computex about the Windows partnership: "[It] was all over every simply because Microsoft was funding its presence. Absolutely no vendor thinks it will be a success, but Microsoft is paying handsomely to fund design work and lavishing advertising co-op money on anything that moves. All this however did not convince [us] that [it] had a chance to succeed in the market, [we are not] even mildly positive."

That's the same type of partnership we see in China. And that's _not_ the same type partnership we see with Tizen, Sailfish or now Ubuntu.


[1] http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/2/3828990/microsoft-google-exchange-activesync-statement
[2] http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2012/10/nokias-lumia-920-the-worlds-most-innovative-smartphone/

Lasko

I almost forgot. Google now directly competes in another services area with Nokia, Automotive Navigation and Maps: "Google partners with Hyundai and Kia Motors to integrate Google Maps and Places into new car models". [1]


[1] http://thenextweb.com/google/2013/01/02/google-partners-with-kia-motors-to-integrate-google-maps-and-places-into-new-car-models/

Tester

@CN:

Regarding your link, all I say is that if you want to make a credible point do not refer to wmpoweruser.com. This source is as good as citing Microsoft's PR department directly.

CN

@Lasko

May I know who said the statement in Computex?

CN

@Tester

You often talk about different things than the ones challenging the generic view here. If Marco say MS has NOTHING in place, I say it's not true. Are you saying now that the entire story on the agreement between MS, OEMs and CUC is a simple lie?

Tester

@CN:

I won't say anything because I can't form an opinion based on corporate bullshit talk.

This stuff often means something entirely different than what it may look like on the outside.

Tester

@CN:

Anything that just reblurbs what some vague press statement says isn't worth much without any background information.

I haven't informed myself about Tizen-DoCoMo so I won't make any comments about what they have to say.

The devil with there 'strategic partnerships' is always in the details buried deep in the contracts. It may be worthwile, then again, it may not. Hard to say for sure before anything concrete surfaces.

With Microsoft it's worse because there have been so many announcements which ultimately were only slightly more than smokescreens to get some good press that I don't believe anything of this anymore until proven otherwise.

Lasko

@CN

This is part of an interview from Charlie Demerjian with OEMs at the Computex, as published on S|A earlier this year.

MarcoAustria

@CN
please don't take a statement rip it out of contest. I mean partner, not sales partner - as stated in my previous post. China-Unicom is a sales partner, like AT&T. They have no say-so in the development of Windows Phone/the ecosystem.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/China-Unicom-Will-Support-the-Windows-Phone-Platform-Too-313016.shtml
„The company has just signed an agreement with Microsoft for the distribution of these smartphones [...]“
or
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-12/07/content_15994579.htm
„Alliance to boost sales of Windows Phone devices“
or
„The key member of the alliance is China Unicom, who will be giving "strategicc priority" to Windows powered devices. This will likely translate into additional device subsidies and marketing activity.“
http://allaboutwindowsphone.com/flow/item/16361_Microsoft_and_China_Unicom_lau.php

I mean partner as can influence the strategy, direction and development of the OS and ecosystem. It might be with arguments and conflicts, but they have influence.

Tizen: „Tizen's main goal is to create an open ecosystem,[...]“ (source: en.wikipedia)
http://www.tizenassociation.org/en/tizen-association/board-of-directors
including 6 carriers
and open for other business cases
„The workgroup, using Tizen as its reference distribution, will create an Automotive Grade Linux (AGL) reference platform, which the car industry can use for [...]“
http://www.zdnet.com/tizen-linux-heads-for-vehicles-as-car-makers-and-tech-firms-form-workgroup-7000004491/

Sailfish „The Sailfish Alliance is open and can be joined to contribute or just the effects can be used.“
1 carrier (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailfish_Alliance). One isn't much, but for a startup all they need.

In the end
Samsung is the new Nokia.
Tizen is the new Symbian.
MeeGo is a Hydra (why? It lost one head and get two new ones. Microsoft might have cut the head (Nokia), but two new emerged (Tizen, Sailfish)

MarcoAustria

The new Nokia China business model
* go from 70% marketshare to „nowhere“ and count it as success …
* celebrate if mobile vendors entering your market and you have to fight with them. And count it as success ...

“As more mobile phone vendors start selling Windows Phone devices, it demonstrated that Nokia made a very bright choice at the very beginning,” said Gustavo Eichelmann, Nokia China chief reportedly said.“
http://news.softpedia.com/news/China-Unicom-Will-Support-the-Windows-Phone-Platform-Too-313016.shtml

Just hilarious ..

CN

@Marco

Understood. So "China Unicom and Microsoft officials said the new Windows alliance will lead to the development of more innovative devices and attract more partners." is not enough.

And "This will likely translate into additional device subsidies and marketing activity." is not good.

This is a challenge for all of us, using statements selectively. I guess you do your part in it. Sorry if I did it, I initially did not understand what you meant with "(not meant as sales partner)."

So now we can conclude that not just Windows and Nokia, but also HTC, Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, Asus, Lenovo, Qualcomm, and Intel are wasting their time in the alliance. ;-)

Tester

@CN:

No, sorry, those phrases are empty corporate talk.

The same talk that has been used for every previous partnership that all failed.

Essentially it means that Microsoft is pumping more money into the market to dupe people into buying their unpopular platform.

The only open question is whether China Unicom is taking the deal seriously or only doing it because it's a no-lose proposition for them. Considering the current market situation the latter is far more likely, if you ask me.


More generally about corporate talk: Never EVER let any doubt creep into your statements. Never EVER make anything sound negatively, even if it's a major disaster.

Remember how Nokia justified selling their HQ? No, they didn't say they couldn't afford it any longer. They said they weren't into the real estate business!

Sometimes I wonder who these people are trying to fool with such statements...

Lasko

@CN

Various OEMs have been interviewed by an S|A journalist at the Computex this year, and this is what they've told him in confidence. What do you expect? Names and transcripts? The value of this interview is the private information given, which is obviously quite contrary to the public statements OEMs are forced to publish.

And publishing information departing from this public statements is 'hatred against Microsoft'? So I can report about Microsoft as long as I do in favor of? And if I don't I become a 'Microsoft hater' and the truth becomes a lie?

That's quite a comfortable way of looking at things.

CN

@Lasko

Did you read it yourself in here?

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/07/02/microsofts-scapegoating-explanation-doesnt-hold-water/

"Instead of learning from that debacle, the same geniuses who took Microsoft’s phone operating system share from above 10% to below 2% were let loose on the tablet space. Their harebrained master plan blew up in their face once again, and took the entire OEM community with it. Microsoft then panicked and took a public scalp instead of holding those responsible to account. There is no plan on where to take things from here, Microsoft’s tablet hopes and dreams are stone cold dead. If upper management is allowed to survive this, the company has no chance."

Can you honestly say they don't have a negative attitude towards MS?

I'm not saying anything about your attitude.

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