Countdown to Mobile Moment - When Will Mobile Phone Accounts Outnumber Humans? I say July 2013 (we are at 6.7B already)

So its that monster year not just in mobile and tech, but in human history. We will experience the Mobile Moment this year, 2013. The moment in time when human evolution reaches the point, where a single consumer gadget exceeds the total human population by users. So we are now counting down to yes, the moment when mobile phone accounts, or 'subscriptions' or some may say 'users' or 'mobile phones' will exceed the total human population alive. Not measured in household penetration rates, nor of adults, but measured in total humans alive.

Never in human history has any gadget or technology achieved 100% penetration levels. Not cars, not motorbikes and mopeds, not even bicycles. Not the Walkman, not the CD player, not the television, Playstation, VCR, DVD player nor even radio. Not the PC, not the internet. Not even such basic necessities we all expect, like running water or electricity. The wristwatch may have seemed ubiquitous, but it wan't. It never reached every wrist. The pen and paper technology, basic pencils, do not reach the total human population because still 800 million adults on the planet are illiterate and have no use for such a technology. But even illiterate humans, beyond the reach of electricity are using mobile phones today. (yes in many parts of Africa and Asia and Latin America, schools provide free recharging service for mobile phones, as an incentive to have the parents send the kids to schoo. and get their phones recharged, for those living in villages and farms that don't have electricity)

But mobile. Mobile reached 6.7 Billion active accounts/subscriptions last year by December 2012, and grew from a little over 6 Billion, adding over 650 million new accounts ie grew new paying users by 11% in just one year. (Isn't this an awesome industry, the fastest-growing Trillion-dollar industry in human history, and the epicenter of all digital convergence). And how, this year, we will definitely add at least another 600 million, probably even more than that. So this is the historic year, when we will have the 'Mobile Moment'. A gadget or technology will grow to become bigger than total human population. Mobile accounts already are bigger than the populations of Europe, Oceania, Latin America, the Middle East and even North America. Asia is almost at 100% and Africa will reach 100% penetration rate level well before this decade is done (they are already past 70% penetration rate). Leading countries are past 200% like the UAE and Hong Kong.

So now we are on the countdown to the Mobile Moment. When will it happen? My current projections say it will happen in July of 2013. The planet is at 7.07 Billion humans and we are at 6.71 Billion mobile subscriptions now in January 2013. We are growing new mobile accounts at a rate of about 54 million per month.

Now, remember, the total mobile subscription count is not the same as actual mobile phones in use (that is less, as some will have multiple accounts but use one phone, and do the SIM-card-switch between different carriers/operators to save in costs or optimize in telecoms traffic behavior). Also remember, because some of us have two phones, and others who have one phone have more than one account, and as some of the mobile accounts are actually machine-accounts (electric meters, watering irrigation systems, healthcare warning systems etc) the actual number of 'unique users' as human beings is well below that magical number. But these are the numbers at the end of 2012:

MOBILE SUBCRIBERS, PHONES, AND USERS AT END OF 2012
Planet . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Billion humans
Mobile accounts . . . 6.7 Billion total active subscriptions (94% of all humans)
Phones in use . . . .  5.2 Billion including those with 2 phones (73% of all humans)
Unique users . . . . . 4.3 Billion humans who have at least one phone and account (60% of all humans)
Source: TomiAhonen Almanac 2013
This data may be freely shared

Lets see as the numbers start to come in. I expect some analysts to jump on the mobile moment number earlier, and also, that as we'll hit the 7.0 Billion active accounts number before technically passing human population count at almost 7.1 Billion, we may see the seven billion number celebrated around May or June.

But yes, this is the monster number coming this year. It will be widely reported and a lot of pundits will give their commentary on fhis pervasive technology. So a few quick thoughts - most of those phones in use are not smartphones (only 1.1 Billion were at the end of last year). The number 1 used service on those mobile devices is no longer voice calls, it is SMS text messaging. More than two out of three phones in use is a cameraphone so for most humans on the planet, the only camera they have ever used, was on a phone, not a stand-alone Canon or Nikon or Olympus haha..

As to services, more than a third of these mobile phone users access the internet on their phones at least part of the time and nearly a third access news on their phones. 60% of mobile phone owners have received advertising on their phones already so mobile is becoming the biggest advertising platform by reach, totally dwarfing television, print and the PC based legacy internet, and rivalled only by radio anymore. And yes, obviously, all data in this blog may be freely shared and re-used and translated and turned into infographics etc.. Please provide links back here if you do and also tell me via Twitter - I am @tomiahonen of course - and I'll tweet links to your articles that talk about these numbers.

I'll be giving you a lot more data on the mobile industry as we near the publication date for the brand new TomiAhonen Almanac 2013 edition, but if you wanted all the mobile data in an ebook/mbook that you can save on your tablet, laptop or smartphone - now's the time to order the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012. Anyone who buys the old edition now, gets the new edition also, for the same low price of ony 9.99 Euros. A great value on the 180 page statistical compendium of all major mobile industry stats. So check out the TomiAhonen Almanac 2012.

 

Comments

[John Waclawsky]

The reality is the real suffering is occurring in the Microsoft eco-system. The fact that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET doesn't mean they are not popular. On the contrary but not using microsoft software. In fact sales are migrating from the Microsoft eco-system to Android and Apple.

http://beta.fool.com/rsaintvilus/2013/01/21/microsofts-q2-time-to-kick-ballmer-and-pcs-to-the/22254/

[newbie reader]

@Baron95
// Why are you dragging me

It's my little "daemon invocation rite", calling you by name :)

That Waclawsky guy also made me bored. And I just thought, we need here a better troll than he is, a real PRO clown... Someone, whose ass we all can kick, inteligent way, and not that BORING TRUTH prophet of NOBODY WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE :) And I thought, Baron95 would fit perfectly!

Ok, seriously, the data I quoted is clear, it predicts Apple biz in USA to be MORE peaky, not less.

Higher high, 71% vs. 65%,
is followed by lower low, 50% vs. 56%

I call this MORE peaky.

That's why I recalled you, AAPL bull, to see once again, that your best points are still weak.

And, to add to AAPL trouble, subsidy game in USA also got endangered recently.

[newbie reader]

@winter
// So you see competition as the death of the free market.
// Interesting viewpoint on economic development.

Yes! :)
But it is not just him, it is a common trend.

"free market competition", once praised, is called these days "race to the bottom"

And "decent, healthy business" are cartels, locks and monopoly game

What was once "design" is now called "innovation",

while "innovation" is called "disruptive technology"

and, to top it all, development of cheaper and better competing product is called horrible "cannibalization".

The truth is, Corporate USA is no longer competetive worldwide, and it is mostly cornered in the high-end of the market. Anything new means now only losses for them, and anything cheaper also means losses for them, and free market competition means losses for them. So, this change of the words and attitudes.

[Henrik]

@Baron95 I never said that we have had unlimited SMS for 6 years. I'm saying that we have it now and that we have had it for some time.

Travelling around Europe, or general just outside your country will cost roaming fees that is the same as if a person for the USA travels outside the US.
And then yes SMS cost money but so do data. so iMessenge er nit truly unlimited SMS anywhere, anytime.
Try and look at the price for data roaming. And if you say "I'm always on wifi" then you have not travelt.

And yes we are lagging a little behind on 4G but we have 32+ mbit/s 3G and the HSPA+ that I notice is sometimes called 4G in the US. That is just 3G here in Europe and we had that for quite some time.

And the hole part about why bother that you get locked for 2 years. Someone else is paying you bill anyway.
Sure if someone else pays my bills I would not care what stuff cost. But for many they pay them self.

And what's wrong with the government protect there citizens.
They did not do anything to begin with. But they know how important communication are. And then the price did not go down when the cost of operation did. Then they start making regulations to protect there citizens.
By making a law that they could not bind people that long they made the carriers compete. They did not force them to lower there prices. But they made it so people could see the real price. And people started to pick what was cheapest. And leaving carriers they did not like.
And the carriers had to make better products to keep and gain costumers.
What is better 10 costumers that you earn 100$ from each or 1000$ that you only earn 20$ form each?

Ohh and about regulations. Data roaming in Europe is for me 1.16 US$ /MB because of regulations. And outside Europe it's 20.53 US$ /MB because we do not have regulations on that.
So I can really see how regulations is hurting me.

[Tester]

@Henrik:

Why do you even bother to argue with this corporate sleazebag?

It's quite obvious where our beloved Baron95 stands: Big profits for big US corporations is all that matters. Everything else is noise that needs to be eliminated.

[newbie reader]

LG topped Apple for #2 spot in USA phone market, http://news.yahoo.com/lg-reportedly-overtakes-apple-america-no-2-handset-001930876.html

LG Optimus Pro
1080p screen, quad core Krait, 32Gb and SD slot, 13mpix camera and 3000mah battery
http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/21/lg-optimus-g-pro-official-ntt-docomo/

Now only Sammy is missed from 1080p club :)

And note, that I predicted some time ago for Lenovo and LG to joint top5 smartphone vendor list!