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« Picture 4 in Nokia Saga: How Badly the Promised Migration from Symbian to Windows Phone is Failing | Main | Picture 5 in Nokia Mess - How Hype, Hope and Hysteria Hide the Sad Truth - Lumia Sales Pattern »

January 15, 2013


Sander van der Wal

Stone tools are technology too. And they were mobile.


That's kind of an unfair comparison in your second paragraph. If you're saying pencil-and-paper penetration is below 100% on the grounds that some people can't read, you can't then turn around and claim mobile penetration is >100% because some people have more than one phone. A lot of people own multiple pencils too.


I think you might be underestimating how enormously competitive the pen, pencil and paper are. Also, some rudimentary agricultural staples like rice and corn are so ubiquitous they exist in large numbers.

However, mobile phones are probably the most widely adopted digital technology ever.


Tomi, you forgot the knife and fire as the most ubiquitous technologies ever. And the wheel as a technology used by almost every human in the last century. I think we can safely say that every human who ever lived has hold a knife and used a fire to cook or warm at least at one point in life.

But on the other hand, a new technology that is as ubiquitous as fire, the knife, and the wheel is a breakthrough. Indeed a milestone in human history. The world will never be the same (it never was, but anyhow).


Next milestone: A mobile phone for every tree:


I think he said gadget, but any way, fire had been remplaced by counter tops, and knife no everybody use them.

Insurance agencies are putting gsm trackers on cars with obdII, and i think news cars come gsm system integration to track faults. Does them count?

newbie reader

Here is another weird piece of "analytic" I found recently.

What is smartphone marketshare estimate for 2016 ?

Well, all forecasts for iOS/Android estimate are BS, nobody can foresee it.

However, some knowledge of year 2016 total smartphone marketshares is just common sense.

Consider this:

USA pop is about 1/3 of China pop. Number of mobile subscribtions in these countries is currently /2012/ about the same ratio.

Yet, here is IDC "forecast" for 2016 smartphone marketshares:

Country, 2011 Share, 2012 Share, 2016 forecast
China 18.3% 26.5% 23.0%
USA 21.3% 17.8% 14.5%

so, the forecasted 2016 ratio is about 23/14=1.64, up from 26/17=1.52 in 2012

What kind of "analytics" is that?


@newby reader
Just extrapolate a straight line. If you can draw a straight line you have a great future as an analyst.

In three years, India is tail chasing China. USA is somewhere in the back.

newbie reader

// extrapolate a straight line

Well, it looks like for a good career as IDC "analyst", one needs to know very well, whose straight lines are more staright than the others :)

I already did this good example here:!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png!World_Wide_Smartphone_Sales_Share.png

Apparently, for a good IDC career, Apple line should be "more straight" than that of Android :)


@John Waclawsky/Duke:

Can you please refrain from spamming non-Nokia blog discussions with your rants? This is clearly off-topic here!


Then please post it in the discussion about Nokia, not in the one about Mobile accounts outnumbering humans.

Here it is indeed offtopic.


@John Waclawsky:

I'm sorry, but I have to agree with Tester on this being off-topic. If you can keep this to discussions about Nokia's problems it's ok, albeit still annoying. But here - in a discussion about mobile in general - they have no place and should be considered spamming or trolling.

Furthermore, you are quite the hypocrite. On the one hand you accuse Microsoft of astroturfing, but on the other hand resort to the same tactics to flood these discussions with your Microsoft-hate that goes well beyond the tolerance level of many readers here.

Too bad that the actual discussion about the 'mobile moment' is polluted by all this filth. It might have been an interesting topic.


@Tester, RottenApple


@John Waclawsky, Doke

I appreciate your effort, but it IS offtopic to this article. 'Nokia' or 'Windows Phone' is not even mentioned in this blog post. If you have anything to say post it to the corresponding article or wait for the next one to arrive.

Moderation requested.

Pete Austin

A lot of technologies outnumber people, if you count the individual items: knives, drinking vessels, food plates, shoes, etc..

newbie reader

// knives, drinking vessels, food plates, shoes

difference is, all of these could be reproduced by village, or small mediveal city, economy, with no more than some thousands of population. And many could be done by 1 person, or by his family/relatives.

While mobile is 'true advanced' /i.e. complicated, global/ tech.

It requires millions of people, rather advanced knowledge and huge chunk of 20th century level tech. Forget city-level, even most of smaller countries would probably be unable to reproduce it now on their own, even if they try.


Stephen Elop in the top 5 worst CEO of 2012 according to CNBC (page 3 = about Elop)

newbie reader

Japan: Google's Nexus 7 had 44% of the market versus the iPad's 40%

Apple iPad lost the number one in Japan for the first time since 2010

newbie reader

USA 2013Q1 consumer demand for iPhone5 drops to pre-release level.

Buyers, who plan to buy iPhone over next 90 days:

sep'11, 65% /iP4S release peak/
dec'11, 54%
mar'12, 56%
jun'12, 50%
sep'12, 71% /iP5 release peak/
dec'12, 50%

plan to buy Samsung phone over next 90 days:
jun'12, 19%
sep'12, 13%
dec'12, 21%

So, if we trust these numbers,
iP5 is losing the battle to Sammy, returning to pre-release lows, on its own weight. SGS4 has not even announced yet.
Also note that higher percentage of iPhone buyers buys older model, compared to iP4S release.

And that funny guy, Baron95, talks about 'less peaky business' here :)


@John Waclawsky
"Hopefully capitalizing NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET isn't bothering you too much. It is meant to annoy the trolls."

Actually, your capitalized soundbite has the effect to "cure" Google searches from the poisoning of the trolls. One primary aim of all the troll comments is to ensure that any critical comments are drowned in "positive" remarks in search results. Your repeated soundbite works as an anti-dote.

newbie reader

Consumer Reports:

iP5 is ranked 3rd for AT&T and Sprint, below SGS3, and is not even in Top 3 for Verizon.

1. LG Optimus
2. SGS3
3. iP5

1. LG Optimus
2. SGS3
3. iP5

1. SGS3
2. HTC One S
3. Note2

1. Moto Razr Maxx
2. Moto Razr
3. SGS3

/ And my pick would be: Verizon HTC DNA /

newbie reader

SGS4 Antutu test leak, says it has octa-core A15/A7 CPU


I'm posting this for the old MS astroturfer trools that say Apple user never change to android:

this guy is an APPLE TROOL, he goes to betanews to DEFEND apple, but after he try SGN2, he's change.

2. Nexus 7 beat ipad:

Is this real or joke?:



About 1: Great find. And the article perfectly highlights what went wrong at Apple. Instead of revolutionizing smartphone use again all we got since the iPhone 4 was minor incremental improvements but no real innovation - not even an acknowledgement of how the market developed. When the first iPhone was released it had a huge screen compared to the competition, its user interface was by far the most advancved. But now? Android has caught up in all areas, and then produced something new like the Galaxy Note II. Samsung has managed to create something that's in its own league, far above the iPhone. The funniest thing here is that the entire industry and many 'experts' were mocking Samsung for creating such a monster. But it seems it was Samsung who did their research well. Let's wait what Apple releases this year - but it has to be a very significant improvement over the iPhone 5.

About 3: Haha. This is a terrific example of how to manipulate presentation of statistics. Have you noticed how the scales of the 2 things being compared don't even closely match? (IE use declined by half, murders by 1/7th) I guess you could create a similar picture with any other value that has been constantly declining for several years.


So you see competition as the death of the free market.

Interesting viewpoint on economic development.


@Baron95 All that with SMS revenew and Operators becoming commodity device/access suppliers.

In Denmark Europe we have had unlimited SMS/MMS for years.
We can no be bound in a phone contract for more then 6 month. And after that the carrier has to unlock the phone for free.
So for a long time it has been cheaper if you just got the phone off contract (some that do not do the math still buys with a contract) and most carriers has stopped offering "discount" on phones and just added. buy you phone and pay it over 6 to 24 month (They still have to unlock it after 6 month and you can stop you carrier contract after no longer then 6 month)

So I can get
3 hours talk time (it only count when I call out. I can receive unlimited time at no cost)
Unlimited SMS/MMS
3GB Data
And free talk to all others on the same carrier for 17.67 US$ and is only locked in the contract to the first of next month

Free talk to all
Unlimited SMS/MMS
22GB Data
for 65.85 US$ and is only locked in the contract to the first of next month

And on both if I use more data then that. Then they will lower my data speed. But not charge extra.
And of cause there are also some plans in between.

The cool thing with not allowing the carrier to bind a person for longer then 6 month and that there phones has to be unlocked for free after the 6 month is that carriers and competing on there service and price. And the ones that only binds you to the first in next month is doing so. Because to want to show that they want to be the best, and want you to stay because you like there service.
And that phone makers has to compete on quality and price. And not just because they made a good deal with a carrier.

About you water and electric meter. Did you notice that the article says " phone ACCOUNTS outnumber humans...." and that Tomi in the article wrote "..... and as some of the mobile accounts are actually machine-accounts (electric meters, watering irrigation systems, healthcare warning systems etc) the actual number of 'unique users' as human beings is well below that magical number"

So he do know that. And just because you cant see your water meter's "phone" then it still needs an account to communicate.

About Android phones are plastic phones and are on a race to the bottom and glass and aluminium are the only premium phones.
Glass and aluminium are heavy compared to more modern materials. And the plastic that phones are made of today are not the plastic that you use for bottles or warping.
It's is made it take the beating a phones is getting when you use it. And be light weight.
It's like saying that plans not build of wood and cloth materials as in the good OLD days. And some cheap crap planes. And only the mostly handmade wood and cloth planes are quality.

Things evolves and if you do not evolve in same speed with the rest of them. You have to learn to catch up quick or get left behind and get extinct.
And that is where people are commenting on the iPhone. It's has not really evolved sins the iPhone 4. So catch up quick or get extinct.

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