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« First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both | Main | On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia »

December 24, 2012

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Kantar November Numbers: Suggest Decline in Windows Phone and.. Increase in Symbian? Nokia is so doomed:

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MarcoAustria

Why Windows Software was and is a failure. 2 funny and interesting rants

Why Windows Phone suck - in this case WP 7 but MS didn't make major changes so many will still be relevant:
http://www.wpsauce.com/2012/05/windows-phones-suck.html

and why the Zune suck - which is a central software piece for Windows Phone 7 and 8
http://www.wpsauce.com/2012/05/zune-trojan-horse-wp-citadel.html

B a r o n 9 5

Everything going according to plan and the 2010 prediction.

Apple - dominating the well to do, credit worth, credit-card backed iTunes users that actually use the devices and consume paid apps and content.

Android for the low margin, hordes that can's pay plus a chunk of the "I want to revolt against the Cupertino dominance" crowd.

RIM, Symbian, Bada, Meego cratering or still born.

Microsoft+OEMs pouring money on it to try to get a thrid thing going, with at best niche success.

chithanh

@B a r o n 9 5
You have been a commenter for so long, but it seems you don't ever bother to read what Tomi writes. Of course not the US, but instead Japan is where the new technologies emerge, this was posted in many articles. Though a shift to China can be observed now.

Nokia was never very successful in US, actually their total market share remained quite stable over the years (in low single digits).

Tester

@chitanh:

>> You have been a commenter for so long, but it seems you don't ever bother to read what Tomi writes.

You have to understand. That's not his goal. His only objective is obviously to hammer into people's heads that Android is for losers and anyone self-respecting buys Apple and nothing else.

I think it's quite obvius that he's merely a paid shill.

togga

@tomi "including pulling the HTC 8C from many markets and not launching its large screen Windows Phone smartphone."

Rumor has it, that WP still has resolution requirements that disallows phone makers to compete on the market. Maybe HTC really wanted to try the market but they were helpless since Ballmer said no-no.

http://mashable.com/2012/12/17/htc-large-windows-phone/

"HTC has given up on producing a large-screen Windows Phone-based smartphone, Bloomberg reports citing a source familiar with the project. The reasoning behind this decision lies in Windows Phone 8's maximum allowed screen resolution: 1280x720 pixels. "

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

I'm surprised about the high number of Symbian sales as the Nokia has no new models left. It is only 808 PureView and that's it and a bunch of older Symbian models which shouldn't be manufactured anymore.

What is obvious is that the OS from Jolla is dead on arrival. Despite it will good, Jolla simply have the capacity to leverage the OS. Meego was the last chance of Nokia and there will be no more room for any further Linux derivative now. We have a bunch of them already, Bada, Firefox OS, Meego, Tizen. All of these have minimal market share and the only successful Linux based OS is Android. In practice we have four players now, from biggest to smallest, Android, iOS, BB10 and Windows Phone. After these 4 there will be minimal room of other players. Even Windows Phone will be small compared to the other 3. There will be a fierce fight between BB10 and Windows Phone which BB10 will win. Android will no 1 by a great margin while iOS will not move by any greater means in market share.

KenAdams

@ Bokkelman, Ballmer said the same thing some two years ago too, how WP7 was gonna be a game changer in the mobile world, how it was gonna capture 15% of the market, yada yada yada. It has not happened. Judging by the WP7 record of capturing a measly 2% market share, it is difficult to believe that all of sudeen WP8 will turn the tables around.

QtFan

@P.Bokkelman
Looking at the chart in absolute numbers, WP grew 0.91% to 0.95%. WP world domination just around the corner. LOL

ts-

@P.Bokkelman

Similar blind optimism has been shown by numerous people just in the comments of this blog for almost two years, yet nothing has come out of it. Nokia will be popular in Finland until it's demise, but that won't save the company.

winter

A new crop of shills. Recognize the optimistic outlook with a complete lack of reasobs for optimism:
- Who are the target markets?
- Why would they prefer WP8?
- What actually is the competition?
- What makes WP8 price/performance superior?

We can spell these out for iOS, Android, BB, bada, etc. But how about WP8 or Lumia.

Yes they are expensive, yes they are cluncky, yes they have less apps, yes there are soft/hardware problems, yes they are not available.

Tester

How does WP manage to raise its marketshare in some isolated countries, like Italy?

Actually quite simple: They are tossing out all their unwanted phones at bargain basement prices in one single country to get some good news that way.

Who cares that these customers are not the most desirable (most likely non-tech-knowledgeable ones) and that such an operation comes at a collossal financial loss? Regardless, such marketing efforts are not sustainable long term. Even someone like Microsoft has to pull the plug eventually.

newbie reader

// Lumia 920 is the most advanced smartphone now

Let's check your Lumia 920.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Lumia_920

1. Screen: 720p screen

SGS3 had it half-a-year ago, in mobile industry it is rather "old as hell", or "industry-average", and most advanced now is 1080p.

2. CPU:S4 MSM8960 2-core 1.5 Ghz Krait

Check this page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snapdragon_%28system_on_chip%29#Snapdragon_S4

to see where this MSM8960 CPU stands.
It stands in older "S4 Plus" family, while "S4 Pro" family and "S4 Prime" families are most advanced S4 CPUs. Most advanced Krait CPU now are 4-core APQ8064 /hidden smile here/ And also Kraits are now in fact yielding to new A7/A15 family CPUs.

3. RAM: 1Gb.
"most advanced" now have 2Gb. /see e.g. recent ZTE Nubia announce and all others/

4. Flash: 32Gb, no SD card.

Most top models have 64gb, 6month-old SGS3 has 32Gb+64Gb.SDcard=96Gb flash. /and how much of these 32Gb Lumia flash are really free from W8/

Four failed points of four.
___
As we see, that stupid MS Troll could not even read some simple Wiki pages, and yet he talks trash, like "if your knowledge is so low, I doesn't make a difference to spell the basics for you".

All he can read aloud, is that MS Slogan, "most innovative phone".

Most "innovative" and shameless promo campaign, that's what it really is.

Tester

@P.Bokkelman:

>>Lumia 920 is the most advanced smartphone now, many reviews say the same.

Yeah, sure. Most likely those reviews that got 'sponsored' by the Microsoft Mafia.

>>And it's selling very well.

LOL! Proof, please!


>>It is quite an expensive phone and you won't find it for a bargain basement price.

... and according to statistic it makes up a measly 3% of all WP sales. Which is kind of odd, considering that even for Android the high end Galaxy S3 is the most popular device.

Conclusion: High end customers do not buy Windows Phone.


>>And it got a deal with worlds biggest operator, China Mobile. Something that Apple and iPhone couldn't do.

Let's talk again in a few months when we know how little effect such a deal has.
Exclusivity does not equal success.


>>Times are changing.. You guys just don't know what you are talking.

Yes, times are changing, indeed. For the first time in 3 decades we see Microsoft not being able to shove their product down the customers' throats.

>>You will see, Nokia smartphones will bounce back in 2013 as profitable business. Then you will know what you were told.

Dream on! There's no numbers to find anywhere that may hint at such a scenario. Nokia would have to move 10x as many phones as they sell right now and on top of that need to find customers who actually WANT their stuff, not those who buy it because it's cheap.
I think before that happens a delayed Mayan apocalypse may appear, the likelihood of that is higher.

The writing is clearly on the wall, that NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE, and that the only 'successes' in the market are heavily sponsored and discounted promotions that generate significant loss.

Tester

You know what:

It all doesn't matter!

First, many of these so-called 'reviewers' have to be positive, no matter what, about anything Microsoft.


Second, it all doesn't help. The market has already spoken: It doesn't want Windows Phone! It wants Android and iOS.
So, put up 2 phones with the same specs, one running on Android, the other on WP8, the Android device will win by default.
And the Lumia can't even compete with Samsung on much more basic terms: It's too clunky and too heavy.

Last but not least: IT DOESN'T SELL! Statistics have clearly proven that even among WP devices it's a minor player.

So say what you want, if people really wanted to own this thing the numbers would tell so. But if you look at the sales charts of large retailers like Amazon the Lumias rank at the bottom of the pack. Which clearly tells us: It's not a success, people do not want it, the reason they don't want it is Windows Phone. Specs are irrelevant in such a situation. Reviews are also irrelevant. As soon as the review mentions Windows Phone the rest has no meaning. People are not that dumb to voluntarily buy stuff from the same company that has screwed them over with Windows countless times over the years. Not when they have an alternative.


newbie reader

A selection of paid and rather clueless reviews.
And examples to see, what fake user comment feeds looks like.

As for Woz, it was just his sidewalk comments on WP 7.5 Mango.
It didn't help much to WP 7.5

BTW, I forgot one other important spec, weight/thinness/battery.
(battery is here, because two other specs in fact make no sense without batt. spec)

Lumia 920
185g, 107mm, 2000Mah, non-removable

SGS3
133g, 86mm, 2100Mah, removable

iPhone 5,
112g, 76mm, no manufacturer data

As we see, Lumia is ***rather bulky phone*** with a bit lower battery capacity than SGS3. And I suppose, that WP8 is most power-hungry OS of the three, given its W7 heritage.

Eurofan

@newbie reader: I read somewhere that the screen of the Lumia 920 is an energy hog compared to Apple and Samsung screens.

i agree with Tester that the chief obstacle to people considering purchasing a 920 is the Microsoft Windows Phone operating system. Nokia misjudged antipathy towards Microsoft software when they agreed to become partners. How much longer can Nokia afford to subsidize a loosing smartphone effort built around WP? And how can Nokia afford this rumored new RT slate? Coming out with a slate too early nearly crippled RIMM. Why will Nokia do any better when prices are even lower than they were when RIMM tried it. It seems like a CEO vanity project. Maybe it will get Elop fired by the end of the year.

Eurofan

@P.Bokkelman: Just so you understand, I don't believe at all these reports of the Lumia 920 selling well. We'll see when sales figures come out in Nokia's quarterly report. But I smell a rat in these early reports from spokesmen and unnamed vendors that the Lumia 920 is selling well. I'd be surprised if Nokia sells more than 3 million Lumias in this quarter. Worldwide.

Tester

Just for the record:

Right now the best ranking Windows Phone on amazon.de is the Lumia 900 at #69. It's also the ONLY Windows Phone in the top 100.

That's meaningful information.

Rank 69 means it sells considerably less than 1% of all phones sales on that site. It also means that almost any customer having a choice chooses not to buy a Windows Phone (which I guess has been established countless times before.)

All that crap talk of bribed analysts is worth shit. Nothing reliable can confirm these claims. All real numbers I have seen so far show a minor spike right after release followed by a steep drop into meaninglessness. There has not been one single credible report that shows good sales for Lumia.
Not! One! Single! One!
All 'success stories' I have seen could be quickly proven as bogus.

CN

@Tester

There's no need to bring those Amazon ranking lists in here, over and over again. For two reasons:

1. We already know from the past that they don't tell you a lot. Remember WP7.X's that were well positioned in Amazon US most of the time in Q2 and Q3. And the end result? Weak sales.

2. You have been told before that not having products to deliver, it is only natural that you don't see them ranked high.

If you don't buy this, browse through Tomi's older postings where he also downplays the relevance of Amazon lists.

KenAdams

Nokia Lumia sales reportedly nowhere near as strong as rumors suggest:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/12/12/nokia-lumia-sales-so-far-quite-low-analyst-contends/

Apparently, Nokia cannot even produce more than 600.000 units per month, so I do not see how it can sell millions: zhttp://bgr.com/2012/12/19/nokia-lumia-920-production-analysis-259684/

Just one more of Elop's FUD techniques to raise the stock price and interest in the platform....

sve

I expect we'll see products soon that can make cellphone calls that are not smartphones. Things like tablets, mini-tablets, laptops will all be able to get on a carrier contract and make calls. Folks who today carry both a smartphone and another device will consolidate to a single portable device that can also make phonecalls/SMS. You'll then see the carriers drop or greatly simplify their subsidy offers to consumers for a communications subscription plan, since the variety of devices that they will have to accept will be too great to limit to just a few models. At that point, the smartphone-only companies (Nokia, RIM, HTC) will simply disappear.

bjarneh

P.Bokkelman> Pretty good analysis here:
P.Bokkelman> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1044011-nokia-a-speculative-buy-watch-lumia-and-nsn

on what planet is that a pretty good analysis? is it as good as his January (2012) analysis where he said that Windows Phone 7 would become the next big thing, with its HUGE ecosystem etc.? (there was no ecosystem naturally and we all know how well that went..)

one of the commentators says it best when people call his nonsensical January analysis a "nice article":

FreeRange> No its not a "nice article". It is pretty much total nonsense, delusional at best.

the facts are in, and has been for a long time, not enough people are buying these phones, and Nokia has to jump of the burning platform™ as soon as possible. Nokia is ironically now in the situation Elop described in his memo, they are soon left with zero options if they keep playing the Windows card.

baron007

@bjarneh

Please forgive bro p.brokkelman.

Bro baron95 were cornered by all of you, and it's hard for him to give a good reason why wp8 is cool without denting his previous comment on why android and open source were lame.

Our bos, the baldy Balmer were not satisfied with baron95 post. He did successfully change a couple of poster to believe about his idea, but he failed to insert that in the future apple will be beaten by wp.

So, you will see more astroturfer here. One saying android is doomeeddd, the other will say the success of wp8. And other will write the phrophecy of wp will kill android and iphone

Ahmad bin Bihamad bin Ahmad

Dead P.Bokkelman

My name is Ahmad, I work for Nokia for about 10 years. I will tell you a story about Lumia.

When our Big Bos announced lumia, we're at Nokia Saudi Arabia weren't so sure about it. Because we love Symbian.

When WP7 come out, it a proven disaster. I evangelist WP7 device to friend and family, and all of them were spacing from me. If they met me on the street, they try to avoid me or will look busy and only talk for a little.

My brother, sister, cousin, all hate me because i talk them into it. and after around 3 month of using it, they sold the lumia very cheap to the servant, or any one who were not really into smartphone.

You said that Live Tiles is very advance, at first, I also think the same, after got a birthday present of samsung galaxy S3 (yes, my family were hate my lumia talk a lot, they bought me a Galaxy S3), I found out ... why would live tiles be advance? It just blinking all the time. It's STUPID.

You said... "Have you tried?", I'm gonna say, have you tried Samsung Galaxy S3? WP were so doomeed, all the game/apps count that I brag about to friend and family, were all lie. The apps were so low quality that after I got my Samsung Galaxy S3, my kid were playing with it all the time compared to the lumia I gave them. Because the game in Lumia were so low quality and late compared to android. After 1 month getting the Samsung Galaxy S3, all the kid phone now, were using android, the kid were happy.

How about Asha, asha game were lame.... after I try US$ 100+ sony android, I also realize that Asha will be dead very soon. They only have around 30 average quality game, and no good/entertaining/adicting game at all.

Why WP7/WP8 sell? Because they were tricked. If they use android or iOS before, they would not get any WP7/WP8.

and I'm one of the people who tricked them to buy WP7/WP8 because I'm a nokia employee.

CN

@KenAdams

Why do you listen to rumours and ignore what Nokia says? Why do you call something as "Elop's FUD"? Nokia has never promised any high Q4 volumes.

As Bokkelman says, there seems to be quite a few in here whose "knowledge is low". Are you one of them or do you just intentionally try to twist the facts?

Elop and Ihamuotila clearly stated in Q3 call that new Lumia's will not help Q4. They came late and looks like these can't be delivered in sufficient volumes. And isn't this exactly what we have seen through numerous sources?

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