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« First Look into Final 2012 full year market shares for smartphones and OS wars, the Top 3 are settled on both | Main | On The Twelfth Day of Christmas My Elop Gave To Me.. The Classic Christmas Carol Updated for Nokia »

December 24, 2012

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EmmanuelM

Hi Tomi, very interesting, but I think you made a small mistake.. this is the HTC 8S that has been cancelled in US not the 8X
And btw SFR the 2nd largest mobile service provider in France is not selling the new Lumia 920 and 820
Merry Christmas !
Emmanuel

Spawn

Maybe time to ask John Pope at Nokia for a statement? Could give some more good xmas laughts when he explains that Kantar is lying to harm Elop :-) "Time to call them out!" John Pope?

Wayne Borean


Elop was right in his Burning Platforms menu that something had to be done. Nokia needed to replace the Windows Phone OS with Symbian!

Pardon my sarcasm, I just woke up.

It would be hilarious if Symbian/Meego kept increasing in sales. Night of the Living Dead Smartphones.

Vinicius

Nokia (and other makers) lose great opportunities by not selling their devices in Brazil.

Lumia (and Windows 8) have HUGE marketing budgets in Brazil. By FAR the biggest of all mobile companies.

Still, people don't want outdated hardware + software. So Lumia sales tank and they WASTE money on ads. If they had launched WP8 in Brazil, my guess is it would net another couple hundred thousand sales, at least.

I personally know many people who wanted WP8 Lumias, but didn't wait and ended up with SG3s and iPhones. I suspect this number is on the tens of thousands of lost sales because of stubbornness on launching on Brazil the same as worldwide.


I, myself, am satisfied with my Symbian-Based 808. And am on the hunt of a Windoes 8 PRO tablet, but very few companies and models launched here. I will ask my brother to bring one from New York in January, since I can't buy what I want because people simply won't sell me.

And all of this is strange, since price is not important anymore. We pay over U$1000 for our smartphones, unlock, in cash, and it doesn't even matter anymore. A lot of Brazilians have cash in hand (myself included), we have a very stable and growing economy. We WANT to spend money on things and companies won't let us...

Spawn

@Samsonite

And your point is ... that Kantar is all wrong? Hey, is that you John Pope?

Come on, at least give us your sources to underline whatever your points are. Be a bit more serious, just a bit. Xmas and so!

winter

A nice quote from the Register based on Kantar. Lumia's are predominantly bought by people over 35 yoa. In other words, Lumia's are bought by people who were not current on Smartphones. Duped is the word that comes to my mind.

iPhone tops US market, but trounced by Android in world+dog
UK smartphoners prefer Android, but not as much as their EU brethren

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/12/21/iphone_and_android_global_stats/

On the sidelines of the iPhone-Android battle, the UK is seeing a bit of a rise in Windows phones – but it's rather feeble. "Nokia is managing to claw back some of its share in Great Britain through keenly priced Lumia 800 and 610 prepay deals," Sunnebo says.

Those phones, however, aren't doing well in the crucial young 'n' hip market. "Nokia continues to find it tough to attract younger consumers in Great Britain," Sunnebo says. "Over the past six months, just 28 per cent of Nokia Lumia 800 sales have come from under 35's, compared with 42 per cent of all smartphone sales."

Sander van der Wal

Now I am curious where Symbian has been stabilising. Because the numbers (http://regmedia.co.uk/2012/12/21/all_market_shares.jpg) show no stabilising at all.

It does show that Symbian had tiny market shares in some important EU countries like Germany, France and the UK at the end of 2011. It had curiously bigger market shares in Spain and the UK, and it was massive in Brazil.

Now if Kantar is showing market shares in 2012 and 2011, it might also have shown market shares in 2010 and 2009. If it had, this would be a splendid opportunity to look at Symbian's decline in different countries, and the correlating that decline with the availability of iOS and Android in those markets.

Spawn

For the Lumia 920T available at China Mobile case:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2012/12/07/nokias-one-up-on-apple-in-china/

When Meego and Symbian got killed China Mobile was left with Android only. That Lumia deal shows how much they like more alternates to push to keep there profit-margins and control. That's the short opportunity-window Nokia has till Q1 2013 more alternates like BB10 and Jolla hit market (and later FirefoxOs, Tizen, ...). That opportunity-window is soon closed. They will have to compete against much more alternates in future.

That plus the December Xmas sells means that Lumia WP8 has its highest peek right now. After the window closed in some weeks its very likely not getting better. So, enjoy your 3% market share Nokia, its the last time you had such a "high" market share.

jo

yeah katar numbers are much worse than i though they would be. why elop is still not fired is beyong me.

but from what i know most of nokia management is from microsoft now.

so even if he fired nokia won't be able to bounce back, and right now there is no one from the old guard that could put nokia into shape.

nokia needed to kill symbian true, but that doesnt mean it would need updated hardware.

MH

Vanity, canity, everything is venity...

IMO it's very unblikely that Microsoft will kill WP, no matter how miniscule its market share. Microsft are willing to spend huge amounts on me-too loss makers - e.g. PlayStation-wannabe Xbox, Google-wannabe Bing, and Apple-wannabe WP8.

Then again they did kill Apple-wannabe Zune...

Microsoft loses less face by staying in a market - even at a loss - than quitting. That's part of the 800lb gorilla mentality that made it feared by competitors - the message being that once MS moves into your market, you are going to have to quit and the only question is when.

The Kin was an aberration, an alternative product in a market already addressed by WM - it's quite unusual for Microsoft to permit internal competition, though Kin was very much the Microsoft Works of mobile phones...

newbie reader

comScore data on iPhone US market share is 34.3%

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/massive-differential-in-apple-inc-aapls-iphone-market-share-estimates-33373/

"... 19% differential between the analyses of comScore and Kantar ..."

chithanh

Microsoft can continue to subsidize Bing and WP8 almost indefinitely from Office profits. Those won't disappear anytime soon, and Microsoft just raised prices because existing customers are locked into Office file formats and can't go anywhere else.

Microsoft stopped doing the same for Kin and Zune, because these products were not important in the company's struggle to stay relevant.

Xbox business is believed to have reached break-even sometime during 2012. So it obviously has been operating at a profit for longer than that. No reason for Microsoft to kill it.

Tomi T Ahonen

About Kantar vs ComScore

Kantar measures new sales. ComScore measures installed base. They are usually very consistent when that distinction is taken into account, ie Kantar is a leading indicator and ComScore a lagging indicator

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tester

Typical Baron.

The 'third ecosystem' stuff is utter bullshit. To form an ecosystem you need at least some volume, not the measly few percent WP generates.

Most of it comes from Italy alone. The rest is peanuts and can be ignored - just like Symbian and Blackberry. I can tell you that developer interest is extremely low, especially if you factor in what type of customers buy WP, which, according to some reports, largely consist of tech-illiterates that were duped into it. Yes, that's the same people you disqualify as valuable when they use Android but now, that they use something else, they suddenly form the third ecosystem. Nice try, maybe next time you have more success!

As for Apple and the US, yeah, sure, let's wait for data from a quarter when neither Apple nor Android release a new flagship device, then we may talk again.

I consider any number from a time period that fully covers such a release worthless because all it measures is the people replacing their old device with a new one. Sure, that means profit for Apple but little impact on market share and user gain.

Q2 data when the Galaxy S3 was released looked quite different for precisely the same reasons as this one.

>> You need to understand comscore is based on browser data - it completely misses the fact that iPhone user primarily access the web via apps that can't be measured by comscore. It is a useless state in the age of apps. In a sense, the better the ecosysstem (more and better apps), the lower a platform will score on comscore.

Now that one's truly hilarious. No matter what the data says, Apple's the winner. This has to be the most idiotic thing anyone has said so far. But coming from you it's not that surprising.

Rino

Read this in Business Insider:
"STEVE BALLMER'S NIGHTMARE IS COMING TRUE"
(Point 5 from 10)
"5. Windows Phone gets no traction despite the Nokia deal and RIM's collapse."

http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmers-nightmare-is-coming-true-2012-11#5-windows-phone-gets-no-traction-despite-the-nokia-deal-and-rims-collapse-5

bjarneh


"the latest phone from Nokia is thick and heavy compared to phones from Apple and Samsung"

quote from @Rino's article


yep, the Lumia 920 is embarrassingly big and clunky, and the 'all-screen-display' looks totally horrid when you slap those Windows buttons at the bottom; this was obvious for anyone to see.

so many strange decisions are being taken over at the Nokia HQ, that it almost seems deliberate.

1. releasing phones in Ronald McDonald colors only (did the blue/pink N9 really sell better than the white/black N9?)

2. ultra clunky device despite all other brands going for much thinner and lighter devices

3. focus on camera, despite that fact that cell-phones will always have poor cameras (always!) the size of the lens you can physically insert into these small devices make it impossible to get professional photos, the N8 was probably as good as it gets.. unless you want to digress into the twilight zone with another N93 device

4. throw out Nokia's superb interface created for the Meego/N9 with an untested Windows attempt, when did Windows ever make a good mobile interface?

5. throw in some useless tech like the "wireless charging". is that really wireless when you have to place your phone on top of the bloody wire (or pad connected to the wire)? how on earth do you make a call while charging, scotch-tape your phone to the pad?


it's cool to see Tomi point out the obvious flaws with the Nokia strategy from time to time, but it sure is annoying to see that Nokia never corrects any of these mistakes..

merry christmas! :-)

How to Use Clarisonic Mia

You're just reaching now. That is only the European market, and barely outselling a thing which is deprecated and abandoned is hardly progress. According to your own link WP7 has only 2.5% of even that market. That's practically a rounding error.

TE

What are the Nokia board doing all this time? How can they have allowed this meritless 'strategy' to have continued for so long? Each and every one of them should have a basic test to see if they even recognise the jargon That Elop seems capable of spouting. Shareholders need to revolt.

Joe

The Verge reported yesterday that Nokia are now apparently even creating a tablet on the Windows RT platform with a supposed release date in late Q1 / early Q2. As if the current market performance of everything Windows (8, Phone 8, RT) as showcased here wasn't enough to make Nokia quit that strategy, it now seems they instead want to double-down that path.

winter

@Joe
Nokia is a MS zombie shell company. What they do is for the benefit of MS, and MS only. As a company, they are undead.

ts-

Being distant third doesn't make one the "third ecosystem," and certainly wasn't what Nokia or Microsoft were aiming at. Besides, not getting up to third would've been impossible for Nokia in the EU with *any* platform, but it isn't going to save the company.

newbie reader

// Apple achieved over 50% market share (53%) for the first time EVER

Even if Kantar preliminary numbers are true, this is not 50% marketshare.

Apple products have typical peaks after new releases.
Some of these peaks sum /quaterly/ up to double of their real marketshare,
see http://cdn-static.zdnet.com/i/story/70/00/006435/26-10-2012-09-52-49.jpg

Given Apple current US Marketshare at about 33%,
it is quite possible for iPhone5 release peak to reach 50%

However, this fact differs substantially even froms claiming 50% US marketshare, not to say about real/=world/ Marketshare, the only one that really matter.

newbie reader

// In the canary in the mine, ... US market

There is no data that supports claim that US market is "canary of the mine".

Neither US Market is typical market, nor does it serve as future trend indicator.

WallStreet BULL-shit producing "analysts" need some "good news" for companies like Apple. They use local US market data, and lagging impressions of its past glory, as a source of such bullish news.

Conversely, opposite thing is true.
US Market is a ***very specific market and not typical market for Apple.*** It is somewhat similar to, what Japan market is, for the likes of Panasonic/

1. The key thing is, in US Market, Apple is allowed to do all this "subsidy" game, essentially resulting in carriers /not buyers/ paying some of their income to Apple.

No other country would allow this kind of profit sucking for US company from their carriers, at that big scale.

2. US market is also very non-typically rich market, as it is a market of major reserve-currency printing nation.

3. Also, US is major Apple patent-trolling stronghold, with products from other companies /samsung/ banned, and others bullied /recent case of huawei and ZTE/

These kind of Apple business practices are clearly pretty much limited to US, making US market very, very far from anything like "canary in the mine".

svensson

A comment on the Symbian sales going up despite the non-existent marketing and push from Nokia. It's like Symbian is a competitor to Nokia LOL! It wouldn't surprise me if Elop saw it that way.

We are all happy about the release of 808PW with 41mpix wonder from Carl-Zeiss. Got mine last month and couldn't be happier.

winter

@Baron95
Desoeration shows. Clearly, MS shareholders get out the champaigne. 5% new sales with old people. In some markets, rich markets, were young people spend money. A new monopoly is on the horizon.

And you are gaming your blocking. How desperate can you get as a troll.

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