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« Update - my website is now back up | Main | Android Won. Windows Lost. Now what? The Battle of the Century is Decided. Microsoft relegated to ever smaller PC corner as Google conquers the world »

December 07, 2012


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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference In Forecasting Racket, you win some, you lose some - Talouselama in Finland mocks me for my 'Nokia to be sold within weeks' comment:



Hey Tomi, all you had to say was that you didn't specify how many weeks.....


T.. yep, it's a God - Dog biz. 8->

Interested to know

Don't worry too much, you've been more accurate than anyone else.

Most of the tech "journalists" are just blindly reprinting Microsoft and Nokia's baldfaced lies without any critical thought. Then these "journalists" take the most optimistic outlook imaginable and repeat it as truth.

Long after Nokia is gone and buried, the Finns will wake up and start to wonder how all these jobs vanished. The shareholders will start to wonder where their billions went. Then you can write a book.



The fact is that Nokia continues firmly on its path to certain death.

Even if Windows Phone reached 11% of market share, they'd still have to compete with HTC and others for a slice of this tiny market.

So, even in the most incredibly positive scenario, I don't see Nokia with more than 5.5% of market share. Yes, gentleman -- 5.5% in the *most incredibly positive scenario*.

Of course, if WP stays below 5% of market share, Nokia will stay below 2.5%.

Nokia is bleeding money, and they are trying to buy time -- selling assets, factories, and even the headquarters.

The problem is: in one year they will be in the exactly same situation -- actually, a bit worse, minus the assets, and paying rent.

And Elop insisting on the Windows Phone road.


... and who says Nokia hasn't been bought?

Nokia has received a considerable amount of money from Microsoft to exclusively produce Windows Phones, to transfer Intellectual Property to Microsoft and to make acquisitions impossible.

I don't see any real difference to a buy out here.




Right now Nokia is hard to swallow.
-They're probably bound to MS contractually.
-Their patents were moved to patents trolls (and part of the revenue goes to MS!).
-They sold a lot of the assets, almost no cash.
-Fired and lost a lot of good employees.

Apparently Nokia did everything in the book to avoid a buy out.
MS won't buy them, because MS already has what it wants from Nokia.


When i saw the deal Nokia Lumia strike a deal with CHINA MOBILE. I knew instantly someone in nokia is secretly reading your blog. Now now.. that is a good thing. Tomi in directly helped to save nokia.


Interested to know

The way that they arranged to transfer all of those patents to benefit Microsoft should be grounds for a lawsuit or a prosecution.


QtFan, I agree with every one of your points.

Nokia is losing money fast, and has too many employees (since they abandoned their main markets) that need to gotten rid of. Nobody wants to buy that and deal with its problems. Better to let it deal with the problems itself, and whatever is left at the end will certainly be cleaner and cheaper to buy.

Microsoft's nature

A Microsoft asked a Nokia to carry him across a river. The Nokia refused because it was afraid of getting stung by the Microsoft. But the clever Microsoft argued that if it stings the Nokia then they would both drown. So the Nokia agrees and carries the Microsoft into the river. Halfway across the Microsoft stings the Nokia dooming them both. In its dying breath the Nokia asks the Microsoft why it did such a thing. The Microsoft replies "it is my nature".



No, you don't agree with me. Re-read my post.
Losing and firing top employees, getting rid of assets and intellectual is NOT helping Nokia be a better buy.
Broken contracts, zero assets and human resources, no IP, debts... you can't sell that :)


@Microsoft's nature
Why would Nokia agree to carry a monster-sized scorpion that eats frogs(partners) for breakfast?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all

Microsoft's nature - LOVED IT..

QtFan - laughed so hard about your response to m. I posted it also on Twitter crediting you. Hilarious..

Well, I'm not done forecasting, as you may have noticed, I just called the global digital race for Android as winner and Windows as the loser (new blog out today)

Tomi Ahonen :-)


@Doodle "Tomi, if Nokia sells 800k - 2m Lumias in Q4 I will hand it to you. However, as I expect, they will be selling more than 6m then you will have to admit that you were massively wrong. And you are in that case probably due for a super-sized apology later in 2013."

Wait a moment! Google activates 1.3 million android devices *per day*.

If being part of a strong "ecosystem" is as important as Elop says, it means he made the wrong choice: Windows Phone is loosing by 20 to 1.

But I don't see Nokia selling 6m Lumias in Q4. Early adopters and enthusiasts who bought Lumias in 2011 saw their devices becoming obsolete in less than 6 months. The brand is tarnished.


QtFan, I *do* agree with your points though in re-reading I see I got the gist of your post wrong. I agree that right now Nokia is hard to swallow. Elop is destroying the company. That won't make it a better buy, it will make it a CHEAPER buy. Disagree? Can you name one company that is saying "We have to buy Nokia NOW before it gets any worse!" Or do they want to wait till Nokia hits bottom, perhaps picking over its bones in a bankruptcy?

Nokia IS being sold and their desperation makes them cheaper. Selling off assets is the same as selling the company, except that they're doing it piece by piece and letting the proceeds fund the WP disaster rather than distributing it to shareholders.

Nokia is a burning oil platform. Potential buyers would rather wait till the fires burn themselves out. I certainly agree that Elop poison-pilled the company to make sure it was "WP or death", and now potential buyers have to wait for the death. This ensures that Elop's plans can continue, because the company is poisonous to others as long as the MS contract is still in effect.

You're saying that with all the employees and assets, Nokia was more valuable... that's true but that wouldn't help them be bought because it also makes them more expensive. Destroying Nokia makes it an easier buy.

clarisonic mia 2

I am really impressed by this blog! Very clear explanation of issues is given and it is open to everyone.It contains true and fair information. Your website is very useful.


ergfeqweing sold and their desperation makes them cheaper. Selling off assets is the same as selling the company, except that they're doing it piece by piece and letting the proceeds fund the WP disaster rather than distributing it to shareholders.

Nokia is a burning oil platform. Potential buyers would rather wait till the fires burn themselves out. I certainly agree that Elop poison-pilled the company to make sure it was "WP or death", and now potential buyers have to wait for the death. This ensures that Elop's plans can continue, because the compa3refg

2 kutu v-pills

nex generation!

web tasarım

thank you admin good article

Heikki H.

I guess the most recent Lumias have been very well received here in Finland. Ordinary people are talking about getting the 920 model like it's an obvious topic of discussion. Nokia still has good brand image here, so I can't say if the phones are a hot topic anywhere else in the world.

I still wouldn't chalk Lumia as a win. And neither did Talouselämä, actually. They ran also an article saying that "Lumia sales probably came from discounted older models" and "Nokia might still be on negative in Q1, but selling assets has given them more time".

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