Yeah, in this game you win by the sword and you die by the sword (or win by the pen, die by the pen). I'm in the forecasting racket and its crystal-ball-gazing and sometimes you are wrong, and at other times you are seriously wrong. And then on a bad day, you are totally wrong. But in forecasting, you are never 100% correct, if you are 100% correct, that is an accident. Nobody can know the future.
What we forecasters, at least the professional ones, try to do, is to be less wrong than the industry average and to understand why something went wrong. I would add - truly responsible professional forecasters also take ownership of their past forecast mistakes - as I have always done - and explain WHY their forecasts change if they do - not just issue a new totally different forecast (I am looking at you, IDC, who just this past week issued their latest Windows Phone forecast which is down 40% from the one they had earlier this year, and they give no reason why the dramatic downgrade to their forecast - which BTW, I still think is WAY too optimistic. No, Nokia, Microsoft, Windows Phone will not hit 11% and will not become the third ecosystem, even if they manage to pass Blackberry at some point, which they might. 11% is totally beyond reach for Windows Phone)
Anyway. Talouselama in Finland has just been mocking me for one of my more outrageous statements I made last summer - when I said I thought Nokia would be sold within weeks. That was honestly my gut feeling at the time and it OBVIOUSLY has not happened. What I unfortunately still feel, is that Nokia is on its way to be sold, and a suitor might show up any moment. So yes, I STILL think Nokia might be sold soon, but I acknowledge, that my statement six months ago was clearly totally wrong.
But Nokia made a loss of 49% per smartphone sold this past Q3. Nokia's smartphone unit sales fell 38% in JUST ONE QUARTER, with market share in freefall from 6.7% in Q2 to 3.7% in Q3. What is the current direction with the 'magnificient' Windows Phone 8 and all its faults, its stupid distribution strategy of exclusive carriers who often don't carry the full Lumia line, and with even higher prices and more manufacturing and software errors? I am expecting Nokia market share to still fall for Q4.
If you remember, we had the crowd-sources Nokia Windows forecasting contest a year ago - check out what level of forecasts, very famous experts were suggesting for Windows Phone just a year ago, and compare to today - in Q3 Windows Phone had 1.9% global market share, behind Blackberry (the current third ecosystem) and behind Bada (soon to be replaced by Tizen who then becomes the real third ecosystem with all the carries that are committed to Tizen) and behind - get this - Symbian, the past first ecosystem when Elop killed it, and still now, 20 months after he announced Symbian's rapid death, Windows Phone cannot get past Symbian. If this is Windows Phone at its peak, what is Microsoft's future in mobile. Don't believe any 'analyst' or forecaster who promises a 'third ecosystem' for Windows Phone haha..
Read more about my Nokia and Windows Phone thoughts here.
And sorry about the Nokia to be bought comment. I honestly believed it last summer. I am surprised it did not happen. I still think it will, but don't have a definite timetable now. And yes, we forecasters will always be wrong, the point is to try to be less wrong than the industry, by which you are then called an 'accurate' forecaster haha...