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« Latest Mobile Numbers for End of Year 2012 - This is getting humongous.. | Main | Kantar November Numbers: Suggest Decline in Windows Phone and.. Increase in Symbian? Nokia is so doomed »

December 21, 2012

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cycnus

@Alex Kerr

I also have the same question a couple of months back... lol
I give you hint, look back 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 1 year to tomi post.
and you'll see that Symbian number & also BB number were shrinking.

@Thomas...
for 2013
Nokia vs. Coolpad is not interesting... it's predictable.
Apple vs. Huawei is VERY interesting... when will huawei beat Apple
HTC, Sony vs. China manufacture is also VERY interesting.... can the old dog stay on top?
Motorola.... will it make a comeback under google, or will it vanish?
RIM... I still think RIM will dead very soon.... am I right?
LG... Nexus4... will it help LG?

Clarisonic Mia

If we are calling smartphones 'computers' then by all means all types of videogame consoles should earn the moniker 'computers' aswell.

Lasko

Don't write off before BB10 has been released.

Almonas

I think Nexus4 won't help LG in any way.
The production quantities are way too low to have any significant impact.
And I am not sure what it really does to their image.

cycnus

@Lasko,

About RIM,
1. If microsoft can't fight android/iOS ecosystem, what can RIM do differently?
2. If you're gonna say DalvikVM, why would user buy a 'replica' of Android, instead the real deal?
3. If you're gonna say security, how many people really want that?
.. a couple day back, when RIM announce their financial statement, RIM say they gonna offer 2
.. flavour of connectivity. Secure & Unsecured. In the future, BBM, push e-mail could also
.. work on regular GPRS/3G/4G/Wifi (unsecured).... WHY??? Because RIM need to stay
.. competitive, or maybe the user doesn't really need that kind (BIS) of security?

Another reason why I think RIM is doomed.
BB10 would be expensive. It gonna compete with top end android and iphone.
Current RIM user that RIM proud of is not buying RIM top of the line. They bought the cheap BB. Tomi also wrote this... in Tomi's word, I pharaphrase, "they keep the old BB (or buy the cheap one), and upgrade the other phone into the (best) anroid/iOS device."

Winter

@Clarisonic Mia
"If we are calling smartphones 'computers' then by all means all types of videogame consoles should earn the moniker 'computers' aswell."

Computer is a functional description. In general, to be called a computer, two conditions must be must be fulfilled: One, it can be used to browse the web, do email correspondence, and fulfill most of your computing needs. Second, new functionality can be added by installing software. In practice, these uses should be widespread.

There are certainly gaming platforms that are used this way. But I would be surprised if they would make a dent in the overall statistics.

Winter

A nice quote from the Register. Lumia's are predominantly bought by people over 35 yoa. In other words, Lumia's are bought by people who were not current on Smartphones.

Duped is the word that come to my mind.

iPhone tops US market, but trounced by Android in world+dog
UK smartphoners prefer Android, but not as much as their EU brethren
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/12/21/iphone_and_android_global_stats/

On the sidelines of the iPhone-Android battle, the UK is seeing a bit of a rise in Windows phones – but it's rather feeble. "Nokia is managing to claw back some of its share in Great Britain through keenly priced Lumia 800 and 610 prepay deals," Sunnebo says.

Those phones, however, aren't doing well in the crucial young 'n' hip market.

"Nokia continues to find it tough to attract younger consumers in Great Britain," Sunnebo says. "Over the past six months, just 28 per cent of Nokia Lumia 800 sales have come from under 35's, compared with 42 per cent of all smartphone sales."

Anonymous

@cycnus

RIM hopes to regain ground in the enterprise where people do not simply get to choose something they like, but get forced something upon them selected by the IT department. Which often have very different selection criteria.

I know of enterprises which currently allow either a blackberry or a crippled iphone.
And given the choice between a crippled iphone or a "good enough" blackberry, I am not sure which one I would choose.

newbie reader

RIM is ok,
but their serious problem is that they "have only one shot".

To make BB10 a success is relatively easy, /as I see it/ but what if something goes wrong? Even Apple had antennagate with ip4, scuffgate and maps with ip5.

RIM knows it, and their hand is trembling. They postpone and postpone the release, to make it sure shot, at expense of eroding theit user base...

This is their major problem, only one shot. Yes, easy shot, but a lot of pressure. Miss it once, and fall off the Tomi's Cliff is unevitable.

PS.
This is an addition to my forecasts for other companies here:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/11/preliminary-top-10-smartphone-makers-in-q3-samsung-on-top-nokia-tumbles-to-10th.html#comment-6a00e0097e337c8833017c334decbf970b
(there are two posts in that thread)

where I bet Lenovo to take #4 and LG to take #5

And endangered species next year are Nokia, HTC and RIM, yes, in that order.

Besides Coolpad, there are Moto, Sharp, and also Panasonic, and likes of Asus, Acer as potential or dormant risers.

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