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« Latest Mobile Numbers for End of Year 2012 - This is getting humongous.. | Main | Kantar November Numbers: Suggest Decline in Windows Phone and.. Increase in Symbian? Nokia is so doomed »

December 21, 2012

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Shou Ji

Good to see Tizen Association's member, Samsung and Huawei, in "TOP 3 SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS 2012".

Nils

Tomi, a question about the Windows Phone 7 market share in 2010 which was 2 percent. Does that include both Windows Mobile and Windows Phone or only the latter.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Shou Ji and Nils

Shou Ji - thanks, yes, 2013 looks very promising for Tizen, as the new ecosystem ramps up. If we see what Samsung was able to achieve alone with bada, now consider all the partners in the Tizen Association, it should rather rapidly grow to become the real third ecosystem behind Android and iOS, possibly even during 2013 or at least into 2014

Nils - good question. Windows Phone launched only in Q4 of 2010, so that 2% is Q4 only, and it only was Windows Phone specific market share, not counting Windows Mobile. Windows Mobile and Windows Phone combined for the full year 2010 were a little under 5% and at Q4 of 2010, their combined market share - all Windows in smartphones was still 4% about half Windows Phone, half Windows Mobile. That crashed to 2% by end of last year and was at a peak of 3% in the second quarter of this year when Nokia was at its peak before the Windows Phone 6.x series was Osborned by Ballmer and Windows Phone market share again collapsed..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cycnus

Tomi,

Do you think Microsoft will try new trick/hype to boost the WP8 sales?
Do you think MozillaOS & Tizen/SailFish will have a better chance than WP8?
I think 2013 will be interesting.

newbie reader

Chinese Android tablet with Retina resolution /2048×1536, 264ppi/ for $280

http://www.ainol-tablet.com/ainol-novo-9-firewire-quad-core-retina-tablet-pc-9-7-inch-16gb.html

newbie reader

typo: $230.

SameThing speeds up rollout of 14nm tech
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4403838/Samsung-14nm-FinFET-test-chip-pushes-ecosystem

Meanwhile, The Most Valuable And Most Inventive Tech Innovator In The World, Apple roadmaps Patents for Triangle in 2013, Patent for Square in 2014, and patent for Circle in 2015.

John Waclawsky

More reasons why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET. Enjoy this animated critique. It is quite informative and reveals a lot of the limitations of windows 8, especially the windows 8 awful user interface.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTYet-qf1jo

John Waclawsky

Window 8 doesn't even support "MS Pinball" LOL!

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/12/20/vista_killed_pinball/

It seems more and more people are referring to Windows 8 as the new Windows Vista.

A few more reasons why NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

John Waclawsky

Some "news" about Apple. I am not sure what to make of it...

http://gizmodo.com/5968284/exclusive-corrupt-apple-store-employees-come-forward-across-america

...also..
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET :-)

KenAdams

...and Apple captures 53% of the US market share while Android drops to 42%...

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2012/12/21/kantar-us-smartphone-2012/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

KenAdams

AND STILL, NO ONE WANTS WINDOWS PHONE...

Tester

>> ...and Apple captures 53% of the US market share while Android drops to 42%...

... which not coincidentaly fully covers the time period when the new iPhone 5 was released - and we all know too well that every iSlave needs that, no matter what the cost is.

I find the reporting of such numbers quite odd. Of course Apple was bound to sell more devices when no significant Android phone got released at the same time.

But if you look at a time period when a major new Android device causes a spike it's just business as usual.

Funny, how you can twist every statistic to your own liking if you take it out of context.

What matters in the end is not how many devices are sold but how these sales affect market share. If it's just the annual replacement of the old one it's nice for Apple, but meaningless for the market as a whole.

Of course these numbers we do not get here.

I'd say the next quarter will tell the real story. How does the market behave if it doesn't include half the smartphone users replacing their one year old phone, not to mention all those who skipped over the iPhone 4S last year.

Of course, I think we can be assured that the picture will fully reverse when Samsung releases the Galaxy S4 next year.

Still, does it all matter? For me as a developer it's still the same situation. The market demands both iOS and Android versions of each app. Those who focus on just one of these platforms will eventually feel the pressure somewhat.

Esau

Nokia didn't feel smartphone market challenging enough. They are announcing a Windows tablet. Well, that is challenging enough, I think.

The same day, a $99.- tablet from Google was in the news. Google can release a tablet even in Gellogs Rice Crispies box. They can afford that because they earn from contents, they earn from web usage. Nokia earns only from hardware making and sales. Why did they make a decision to put their last money in the tablet competition? Competing with content providers like Google? They have no chance - none at all. The decision was made in Redmond - I am sure about that.

By the way. What was the purpose of the trip when the Prime Minister of Finland visited Redmond 2008?

John Waclawsky

FYI. More on Apple at

http://venturebeat.com/2012/12/20/apple-kills-a-kickstarter-project-portable-pow
er-project-pop-refunding-139170-to-backers/
...trying to prevent third party cables IMHO

and of course, NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET

John Waclawsky

http://ekstrabladet.dk/kup/elektronik/teknologi/article1888097.ece ...looks like they want monkeyboy out! because NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!

John Waclawsky

More Microsoft missteps... funny actually that they are that brain dead

http://mashable.com/2012/12/17/htc-large-windows-phone/

It only further proves NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE

Esau

Why do you repeat that. That is self evident.
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!
Please do not repeat that because
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET!
That is self evident.

Piot

@Tomi
"Windows Phone had 2% market share in Q4 of 2010, exactly two years ago, before this partnership was announced and now ....."

So what is your forecast for Windows Phone Q4 of 2012?

Wayne Borean


Ignore the Ballmer story, the Swedes were copying from the New York Daily Post, a rag with a level for accuracy on par with Microsoft's ability to sell Windows Phone.

Ballmer is a personal friend of Bill Gates. Gates is still the largest shareholder at Microsoft. A single quarter of bad sales won't hurt his position. A year? Maybe.

Or the loss of one of the major computer OEMs. Which is quite possible. Microsoft has upset a lot of partners over the last couple of years (Surface, Windows Phone, Windows 8).

Wayne

Esau

"why is HTC reducing the availability of its low-cost Windows Phone handset"


See todays Helsingin Sanomat (the most respected newspaper in Finland). The most respected department store Stockmann was advertising HTC Windows Phone for 349.- €. No mention about Lumia but they were advertising iPad as well.

Winter

@Wayne Borean
"A single quarter of bad sales won't hurt his position."

There are several points to make here:

1 Speculations about Ballmer's dismissal ranked up over the year. This is again a notch up.

2 Share price is the current asset value plus the discounted value of future profits, no future profits, share tank to current assets. See Nokia. Most of MS' share price are based on future profits. Ballmer is burning though the assets at high speed ($6B Bing, $8B Skype, etc.)

3 MS are trying to repeat the Elop: Force captive current users to switch to a new platform. Desktop users must be forced onto the Metro GUI to ensure they can be pressured to buy Windows Phone. If the users do not bite, MS are toast.

It did not work with Symbian, as current Symbian users simply switched to Android phones. But if you do not succeed the first time, try and try again.

4 MS share holders bought the shares based on MS monopoly status. If MS lose their monopoly status, their shares will be dumped wholesale.

5 OEMs need sales. If Windows 8 decreases sales, OEMs will go look for an alternative OS. Android would easily fit as most users know the interface already.

Alex Kerr

Tomi,

Do Android numbers ("about 710 million ... in use") factor in upgrades to and replacements of existing Android phones by existing users? That number sounds close to what I'd expect total Android activations to date would be, judging by Google's periodic announcements.

Based on the best info I can find, while Android activation numbers do not include an upgrade of the OS on a specific phone (fair enough), they do include new Android phones sold to existing Android customers - so the earlier phone sold to the same user (counted as an activation) and now lost/stolen/broken/shoved in drawer, should be subtracted from the numbers in use. I am willing to bet, IF this is correct (correct me if I am wrong) that this knocks a few hundred million off Androids in actual use...

Thanks,
Alex

Thomas

Well, I for one am looking forward to the fight of 2013: Nokia vs Coolpad!

chithanh

@Alex Kerr
The rate at which hardware breaks or is retired from use is usually factored into installed base calculations.
Look at the Blackberry news yesterday where they face shrinking customer numbers for the first time. Such a thing can't be possible if you only consider cumulative sales. (However, installed base *comparisons* can be done using cumulative sales, within some limitations)

kenadams

really good article on the future of Microsoft (and subsequently Nokia): http://betanews.com/2012/10/29/windows-is-doomed/

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