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« Android Won. Windows Lost. Now what? The Battle of the Century is Decided. Microsoft relegated to ever smaller PC corner as Google conquers the world | Main | Latest Mobile Numbers for End of Year 2012 - This is getting humongous.. »

December 14, 2012



Also price for Lumia 920 without contract here in US on AT&T is $450(plus tax). Just a small correction needed.


I have read that WP 9 will have a standard NT kernel. I suppose that means it won't run WP 8 programs. Of course, that assumes that Microsoft doesn't simply give up after WP 8.


I would like to ask Tomi or anyone else who can make a reasoned estimate: How many smartphones does Nokia need to sell per quarter to keep its head above water? (i.e. break even instead of mega losses).

By smartphones of course it means Lumia. Symbian sales have crashed to almost zero and MeeGo sales have been forcibly stopped.

I think we will see Nokia's demise in the answer. We will probably see that Nokia can realistically sell only 10% of what they need to survive.


And here a small note from Nigeria [Pop. 162,470,737 - 2011]:
When cost and data consumption are real worries

When Will Nigeria Become An Android Market?

This time next year, we might be looking at sub N10,000 [$64] Android smartphones from the nameless and faceless Chinese makers. When that happens, the fight would be over.


I have observed that in the last few weeks of reviewing the Lumia 610 and 920 here, as well as when I announced that the Galaxy note II was heading this way, a regular question that people asked is about data consumption. Clearly, the costs of internet usage on mobiles is a critical factor. As much as some people would love to switch to a different platform, the attraction of “no-worry” internet usage for N1,500 per month is too much to pass for a huge number of people.



> Looks to me that Nokia was already two months ago aware of something we are not

Like how disappointing the WP8 user-experience is and how buggy the first version of Windows on ARM still is after all and like how much restence they face among carriers, partners and customers.

> Call it shortage of components, challenges in production and logistics (something in which Nokia used to be quite good)

Nokia used to be good in lot of thinks including selling there products to customers. That Elop's effects had effects on Nokia is without question.

He streamlined the products, they not sell any longer.
He streamlined the production process, closing factories, outsourcing and firing lots of people, the production process suffered up to not being able to produce enough products any longer to not sell them.

But then maybe those problems are wanted? They keeper the number of units available short to keep the small demand alive. That marches to his exclusive carrier idea. Its so stupid that it could be an Elop strategy.

After THE Lop defined the Elop Effect it may time to define a second phrase: The Elop strategy. To something that let's you look good for a short time and later becomes a problem for your company forever.


> How many smartphones does Nokia need to sell per quarter to keep its head above water?

Nokia Zero, Elop infinite. Since every Lumia is sold with lose I assume as lesser Lumia sold as better for Nokia's quarter results.


> the costs of internet usage on mobiles is a critical factor

Except that with Blackberry you at forced to buy data-plans. This plays a role whenever you not need an internet plan yourself causr , for example, the company you work for has free internet or you have WiFi available at eg home with a fixed not-Blackberry data-plan. When those apply Blackberry becomes more expnsive compared to Android/iPhone.

I saw that changing in many countries. First everybody needs an own mobile internet provider and then internet becomes available on mass on most places for more or less free. Nigeria is slow on that transition cause usual public services fail cause of corruption. But its changing there too. I think its hardly an argument pro BlackBerry but becomes over time an argument contra. There data-plans are to expensive if you not Ned constant mobile internet or only need it very less.


I chose that quote about data plans because Windows Phone seems to be a truly horrible data-gobler, at least WP7 was. See these quotes:


"honestly 250mb is not enough. unless you turn off ALL your location+live tiles+notification = basically turn off every thing that makes WP cool."

"I'm 19 days in and have used 464MB. I have WiFi access almost everywhere. Probably would use less if I didn't live in the city (bored at stoplights)."

"I use my phone a LOT and I rarely hit 300mb in any given month. WiFi at work, WiFi at home. That accounts for the majority of my phone data usage right there and none of it goes on my data plan."

Not to speak of WP8 seeing:

High Phantom Data Usage


After the lukewarm release in China, apple try to pre-heat the iphone 5 in Indonesia.

During the launch period, Apple break their price policy and introduce the iphone 5 16GB for US$50 + US$70/month (12 month).


But, but, Forbes tells us that:

"Customer response to iPhone 5 in China has been incredible, setting a new record with the best first weekend sales ever in China,” according to Tim Cook

So, this must be yet another iPhone launch that breaks all previous records.

The alternative would be that Forbes/Tim Cook are spinning numbers. That would be inconceivable.



Do you know the difference between Windows Phone, Windows Phone 8, Lumia 920, Sales and Installation Base?


An information I missed two months ago : Nokia cuts staff even in China

What to conclude ?


@ Winter Yes, of course Forbes and Tim Cook are lying (I am being sarcastic of course).

I never understood this blind hatred of anything Apple especially by people who have never owned an Apple product.

Seriously, who cares. All these companies are out there for our buck, some of them deliver and some of them don't. It is our choice as consumers to pick what we want for our money, but it does not mean that we need to bash other products.


@Ken Adams:

Yeah, whatever. I'd rather trust the analysts on future outlook than someone with an apparent emotional attachment to Apple.

Some people don't seem to realize that stock price does not reflect current market situation but a projection into the future. And some people seem to seriously think that Apple may not deliver the astronomic projections of the past, hence the price drop.

I don't see the stock being plunged into an abyss, this seems more like a value correction to me.

P910i - the original smartphone... ;-)

"SCREEN RACES - NOW SIX INCHES" - another funny fact: Microsoft thinks 720 pixel wide is enough for everyone.

Guess we won't be seeing (m)any oversized WP8 smartphones soon (but don't tell anybody 'cause it's SECRET)


@ Tester, thank you for your kind and emotional response. However, I do disagree with you, not only about Apple but the state of so called analysts in general. Weren't those same analysts who drummed up the stocks in 2007 only to result in the biggest financial crisis of the past few decades?
I am in tired of Wall Street bulls who raise oil prices on speculations alone, we all feel the result every time we go to a gas pump. Same goes for everything else.
Personally I do not care about Apple stock whatsoever, I do not own a single one. However, I wanted to point out that the comments on this particular blog post have degenerated into Apple vs Android bashing. On one side is Baron95 (who was previously accused of being an MS troll -wtf?!?) and on the other is you and couple of other people - both parties deeply entrenched in their own position. I will leave you to it.

As far as my 'emotional' attachment to Apple is concerned, I have to concur with you, yes, I am to a certain degree emotionally attached to my MacBook Pro and the iPad, as I am attached to my cell phone (which at the moment happens to be HTC Titan - in service at the moment), my TV set, my car, and all other things that I have paid for. Since I paid for these things I expect them to provide value for the money, enjoyable use, good customer service when things fail, etc. I want a good return for my money, doesn't everybody else too?
It is an 'emotional' attachment to a particular product, not a brand. If it works - fine, if it does not, I will gladly change it (just like we all change cell carriers if they don't treat us right or provide cost-effective service).

P.S. As soon as my Titan gets out of service it is going on the second hand market. Too many problems. And, yes I am considering Galaxy 3 - but that does not mean I am getting rid of iPad in favor of Galaxy note tab. If it works, why fix it, or change it. Right?


I am in no way emotional about Apple.

I just look what happens in the market and there's no denying that Apple's position in the business is no longer the same as it was one or two years ago.

Last year the iPhone 4S was the undisputed king of the hill, on technical terms by far the best phone around.

But that's no longer the case.

Today Apple no longer has the largest screen nor the largest resolution.

Aside from 'it's an iPhone' it's just one of many phones on the high end of the market, in many countries not even the most popular.

And this is a major change from the time the Apple stock rose to its former highs.
Say what you want, but since the market changed the future outlook of Apple's market value needed some adjustment.



> Windows Phone seems to be a truly horrible data-gobler

Now why I do not really wonder about that? Its so much inline with all the basic problems like multiple unexpected reboots per day Windows Phone has. Microsoft should have done like RIM and delay the lunch. The product is just not ready.

> Customer response in China has been incredible

Whenever a company says that, may it be Microsoft, Nokia or Apple, we know that it translates to: Customer response in China has been "mixed" and later: It will be all better soon with the next generation, more marketing Dollar and teaching of sales personal! Oh, see there, a flying elephant! *runs*


> An information I missed two months ago : Nokia cuts staff even in China
> What to conclude ?

Focus more on the US! Abort everything else!



Thanks for that link that gives us one running gag after another. My favorites are:

"Microsoft said it’s selling four times as many Windows phones as this time a year earlier"

Maybe because last year Nokia did not had to pay licenses but now they have too? Would be the only logical explanation. Now this makes currently ONLY 4x of what all the other WP7 resellers sold last year? If that's the case then Nokia lost HUGE compared to there 2% Lumia market share from last year. And Microsoft names that right now! Man, Nokia is so screwed :-(

"Microsoft also limits ... screen size ... CPU"

Not new but always a good joke how the software defines the hardware.

"HTC concluded that ... Windows Phone 8 phone wouldn’t be competitive"

Welcome HTC. Took you really long to figure that out. But better later then Nokia!


@Spawn: The only subject I focus on the US about, is... shopping; USD is lower than CAD... for the rest, the US aren't a superpower any more.

newbie reader

>>> Today Apple no longer has the largest screen nor the largest resolution. >>>

Just to share my web research on subject.

Companies, that announced 5" 1080p devices:

HTC, Sony, Sharp, Oppo, Huawei, ZTE, Samsung, LG, and also could be Panasonic.

It includes 6 of top 10 smartphone vendors, and all Android vendors but Lenovo. Nothing like this on Apple-RIM-Nokia street.

Screen manifacturers:

HTC, Sony - JapanDisplay
Sharp - in-house
LG, Samsung - in-house
Oppo, Huawei, ZTE - ?
Panasonic - in-house(?)

HTC Droid DNA is 5", 1080p, and its width is just SGS3-sized, so I consider it a phone, not phablet.

See good review of HTC DNA vs. Sharp, SGS3 and iPhone here

newbie reader


1. Lenovo also plans 1080p.

2. Right now there are two 1080p screens in avaliable 1080p phones: JDI and Sharp. /imho/ Sharp screen looks better, see screenshots in previous post.


"Chinese cheap jungle phones"

I am unsure whether you really fall for this anti-chinese ethnic propaganda from East Africa, or that you fully participate.

As for the "cheap" quality, for these customers, the choice is between a cheap "knock-off" and no Smartphone.


Seems like you are not only resistant against hard facts (some may call this dumb), a downright liar and arrogant, but also racist. Well done, Baron95.


Interesting article John Waclawsky!

( / Business Insider)

"Apple's hold on industry profits is starting to slip, even as its market share plummets. The writing has long been on the wall, even if some refused to see it.

After all, earlier in 2012, Apple controlled 77 per cent of mobile industry profits. Now that's down to 59 per cent, and this number will continue to fall, no matter what Apple does to boost profitability through chip-making or other means. Why?

Because market share matters.

Not only is Apple losing market share in established markets like North America and Western Europe, but it's practically an afterthought in the world's most critical market: China."


What was most remarkable about the iPhone 5 record breaking weekend sales in China, was not the number, but the fact they had to brag about it. Why is it so important to break first day/weekend/week sales records every time? Why not simply argue you sell more phones?

This bragging does suggest the sales fall off pretty steep afterward.

Here is a report by the Register:

Sorry, Apple - China's just not that into your iPhone 5
Still, 2 million sales in 3 days nothing to sneer at


From that article: "Unlike the crowds that the iPhone 5 debut drew in many cities around the world since September, just one person was waiting at the Apple store in Shanghai's financial district when its doors opened at 9 a.m. on Friday."

Interesting. Also interesting that NOK stock has been ripping higher for a month or more. It appears Lumia may be the hot smartphone for 2013.


@John Waclawsky
Sounds like stock fraud: Talking up a penny stock with rumors and then sell.

Has been tried at Groklaw with SCO shares.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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