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« Android Won. Windows Lost. Now what? The Battle of the Century is Decided. Microsoft relegated to ever smaller PC corner as Google conquers the world | Main | Latest Mobile Numbers for End of Year 2012 - This is getting humongous.. »

December 14, 2012



@Spawn, actually the article said 500,000 units expected to sell in December quarter, not the month of Dec.

"Pacific Crest Securities note that their recent channel checks in North America and Western Europe indicate Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) (HEL:NOK1V) (BIT:NOK1V) sales volumes that are quite low, while initial shipment volumes are similarly low. They estimate that the company is tracking toward shipping roughly 1 million new Windows 8 products in the December quarter, while it looks likely to sell through roughly half of those units, based on current run rates."


How did you arrive at 900.000 with 3% of the installed base? According to your own report on Q3 there was an installed base of 17 million for WP. Let it be now 20 million - that would giv Lumia 920 only 600.000 sold???



That is WP7 and WP8 combined and probably the number for all WP resellers together and very likely under 3%. Lumia with WP7 are cheap currently. I would not wonder if Nokia sells more WP7 then WP8 Lumia.


And December is with x-mas the strongest month. If you sell under all that conditions so less units customers must hate you and your products. If grandma and grandpa not buy a cheap WP Lumia for there kids as x-mas present cause they just not know what a Lumia is/contains then two things must have happened:

1. Sells boycotts your products so much that they would never show it a customer if him not explicit asked for a Lumia. So, the Nokia boycott is still active.
2. People who know what a Lumia is spread the message to not sell that to those who do not know what a Lumia is and may otherwise have fallen into for a commercial spot saying how great that Lumia is.

Maybe even a combination if both where the sells-personal warns potential Lumia buyers active. "A Lumia cause you saw in a commercial how great it is? Let me tell you, its not. Here this SG3 is and it is about the same price of a Lumia 920..."

Does anybody have an update on Elop's view how there burning platform is not burning any longer?


>> Does anybody have an update on Elop's view how there burning platform is not burning any longer?

Well, it's not burning any longer. To sustain a fire there must be some fuel. But Nokia is out of fuel. Right now they are sitting in a huge smoldering pile of ash.



Are you creating a little bit too positive expectations around 4Q volumes of Lumia? I'm somewhat surprised that all over fairly high numbers are presented even though Nokia themselves said already in October that 4Q is not going to look good in terms of WP8 ramp up.

Looks to me that Nokia was already two months ago aware of something we are not. Call it shortage of components, challenges in production and logistics (something in which Nokia used to be quite good), late arrival of OS or whatever, but something is there. And in my opinion it's a huge waste of time to

a. speculate it here
b. expect some dramatically positive volumes


Also price for Lumia 920 without contract here in US on AT&T is $450(plus tax). Just a small correction needed.


I have read that WP 9 will have a standard NT kernel. I suppose that means it won't run WP 8 programs. Of course, that assumes that Microsoft doesn't simply give up after WP 8.


I would like to ask Tomi or anyone else who can make a reasoned estimate: How many smartphones does Nokia need to sell per quarter to keep its head above water? (i.e. break even instead of mega losses).

By smartphones of course it means Lumia. Symbian sales have crashed to almost zero and MeeGo sales have been forcibly stopped.

I think we will see Nokia's demise in the answer. We will probably see that Nokia can realistically sell only 10% of what they need to survive.


And here a small note from Nigeria [Pop. 162,470,737 - 2011]:
When cost and data consumption are real worries

When Will Nigeria Become An Android Market?

This time next year, we might be looking at sub N10,000 [$64] Android smartphones from the nameless and faceless Chinese makers. When that happens, the fight would be over.


I have observed that in the last few weeks of reviewing the Lumia 610 and 920 here, as well as when I announced that the Galaxy note II was heading this way, a regular question that people asked is about data consumption. Clearly, the costs of internet usage on mobiles is a critical factor. As much as some people would love to switch to a different platform, the attraction of “no-worry” internet usage for N1,500 per month is too much to pass for a huge number of people.



> Looks to me that Nokia was already two months ago aware of something we are not

Like how disappointing the WP8 user-experience is and how buggy the first version of Windows on ARM still is after all and like how much restence they face among carriers, partners and customers.

> Call it shortage of components, challenges in production and logistics (something in which Nokia used to be quite good)

Nokia used to be good in lot of thinks including selling there products to customers. That Elop's effects had effects on Nokia is without question.

He streamlined the products, they not sell any longer.
He streamlined the production process, closing factories, outsourcing and firing lots of people, the production process suffered up to not being able to produce enough products any longer to not sell them.

But then maybe those problems are wanted? They keeper the number of units available short to keep the small demand alive. That marches to his exclusive carrier idea. Its so stupid that it could be an Elop strategy.

After THE Lop defined the Elop Effect it may time to define a second phrase: The Elop strategy. To something that let's you look good for a short time and later becomes a problem for your company forever.


> How many smartphones does Nokia need to sell per quarter to keep its head above water?

Nokia Zero, Elop infinite. Since every Lumia is sold with lose I assume as lesser Lumia sold as better for Nokia's quarter results.


> the costs of internet usage on mobiles is a critical factor

Except that with Blackberry you at forced to buy data-plans. This plays a role whenever you not need an internet plan yourself causr , for example, the company you work for has free internet or you have WiFi available at eg home with a fixed not-Blackberry data-plan. When those apply Blackberry becomes more expnsive compared to Android/iPhone.

I saw that changing in many countries. First everybody needs an own mobile internet provider and then internet becomes available on mass on most places for more or less free. Nigeria is slow on that transition cause usual public services fail cause of corruption. But its changing there too. I think its hardly an argument pro BlackBerry but becomes over time an argument contra. There data-plans are to expensive if you not Ned constant mobile internet or only need it very less.


I chose that quote about data plans because Windows Phone seems to be a truly horrible data-gobler, at least WP7 was. See these quotes:


"honestly 250mb is not enough. unless you turn off ALL your location+live tiles+notification = basically turn off every thing that makes WP cool."

"I'm 19 days in and have used 464MB. I have WiFi access almost everywhere. Probably would use less if I didn't live in the city (bored at stoplights)."

"I use my phone a LOT and I rarely hit 300mb in any given month. WiFi at work, WiFi at home. That accounts for the majority of my phone data usage right there and none of it goes on my data plan."

Not to speak of WP8 seeing:

High Phantom Data Usage


After the lukewarm release in China, apple try to pre-heat the iphone 5 in Indonesia.

During the launch period, Apple break their price policy and introduce the iphone 5 16GB for US$50 + US$70/month (12 month).


But, but, Forbes tells us that:

"Customer response to iPhone 5 in China has been incredible, setting a new record with the best first weekend sales ever in China,” according to Tim Cook

So, this must be yet another iPhone launch that breaks all previous records.

The alternative would be that Forbes/Tim Cook are spinning numbers. That would be inconceivable.



Do you know the difference between Windows Phone, Windows Phone 8, Lumia 920, Sales and Installation Base?


An information I missed two months ago : Nokia cuts staff even in China

What to conclude ?


@ Winter Yes, of course Forbes and Tim Cook are lying (I am being sarcastic of course).

I never understood this blind hatred of anything Apple especially by people who have never owned an Apple product.

Seriously, who cares. All these companies are out there for our buck, some of them deliver and some of them don't. It is our choice as consumers to pick what we want for our money, but it does not mean that we need to bash other products.


@Ken Adams:

Yeah, whatever. I'd rather trust the analysts on future outlook than someone with an apparent emotional attachment to Apple.

Some people don't seem to realize that stock price does not reflect current market situation but a projection into the future. And some people seem to seriously think that Apple may not deliver the astronomic projections of the past, hence the price drop.

I don't see the stock being plunged into an abyss, this seems more like a value correction to me.

P910i - the original smartphone... ;-)

"SCREEN RACES - NOW SIX INCHES" - another funny fact: Microsoft thinks 720 pixel wide is enough for everyone.

Guess we won't be seeing (m)any oversized WP8 smartphones soon (but don't tell anybody 'cause it's SECRET)


@ Tester, thank you for your kind and emotional response. However, I do disagree with you, not only about Apple but the state of so called analysts in general. Weren't those same analysts who drummed up the stocks in 2007 only to result in the biggest financial crisis of the past few decades?
I am in tired of Wall Street bulls who raise oil prices on speculations alone, we all feel the result every time we go to a gas pump. Same goes for everything else.
Personally I do not care about Apple stock whatsoever, I do not own a single one. However, I wanted to point out that the comments on this particular blog post have degenerated into Apple vs Android bashing. On one side is Baron95 (who was previously accused of being an MS troll -wtf?!?) and on the other is you and couple of other people - both parties deeply entrenched in their own position. I will leave you to it.

As far as my 'emotional' attachment to Apple is concerned, I have to concur with you, yes, I am to a certain degree emotionally attached to my MacBook Pro and the iPad, as I am attached to my cell phone (which at the moment happens to be HTC Titan - in service at the moment), my TV set, my car, and all other things that I have paid for. Since I paid for these things I expect them to provide value for the money, enjoyable use, good customer service when things fail, etc. I want a good return for my money, doesn't everybody else too?
It is an 'emotional' attachment to a particular product, not a brand. If it works - fine, if it does not, I will gladly change it (just like we all change cell carriers if they don't treat us right or provide cost-effective service).

P.S. As soon as my Titan gets out of service it is going on the second hand market. Too many problems. And, yes I am considering Galaxy 3 - but that does not mean I am getting rid of iPad in favor of Galaxy note tab. If it works, why fix it, or change it. Right?


I am in no way emotional about Apple.

I just look what happens in the market and there's no denying that Apple's position in the business is no longer the same as it was one or two years ago.

Last year the iPhone 4S was the undisputed king of the hill, on technical terms by far the best phone around.

But that's no longer the case.

Today Apple no longer has the largest screen nor the largest resolution.

Aside from 'it's an iPhone' it's just one of many phones on the high end of the market, in many countries not even the most popular.

And this is a major change from the time the Apple stock rose to its former highs.
Say what you want, but since the market changed the future outlook of Apple's market value needed some adjustment.

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