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« In Forecasting Racket, you win some, you lose some - Talouselama in Finland mocks me for my 'Nokia to be sold within weeks' comment | Main | Brief Notes from Smartphone Bloodbath Battlefield in Year Three: Digital Jamboree »

December 07, 2012

Comments

Tester

@Spawn:

>> The author failed to understand the diagram. The Y-axis says CUMULATIVE

Ah, I missed that crucial bit as well. Now everything makes sense again. ;)

>> Blue could become a failure too. End-game.

It depends on whether they make the desktop useful again by re-adding a start menu and replace some other metro-only stuff.

But since it doesn't look that they'd admit to a mistake my fears are that Blue may be even worse than 8 if they push Metro even further.

The app situation is a pre-made recipe for disaster, though. What are these idiots thinking? How do they want to keep developer interest if they change the rules every few months?

Yes, looks like end-game, indeed. They are destroying the last remaining shreds of trust they still had, what little it was to begin with.

John Waclawsky

Windows 8 is THE end game in my opinion. A good OS is nothing more than a resource allocator for applications. It supports them! It's what you can do with the device that matters, "THE APPs", not the OS. Out of desperation, Microsoft is trying to make windows do more than an OS should which is a big problem (they have no office advantage - in fact that huge collection of bloated office code is a liability in the mobile space). If you start acting like an app, you piss off your partners. If you start controlling app behavior too closely, you piss off your partners. If you try to control what apps are allowed, you piss off your customers....etc. The value is the APPs not the OS so Microsoft has to keep developers in line so it can tax them, limit what they can do (keep the good app stuff for itself by relabeling it as part of the OS), and restrict their growth. They have too because that is where the value is (consider Office). Microsoft is evolving into a NO WIN SCENARIO environment for app developers (gamers are already upset). The tighter the grip on the computing environment the more developers will slip between their fingers. As the financial rewards are increasingly reaped from the Android ecosystem, developers will abandon the Microsoft NO WIN SCENARIO. And Tomi's article points to the fact that the tipping point has been reached.

Ian is a microsoft partner and doing what he has been told or to gain favor ...but probably clueless to his overall chances of success in the Microsoft mobile strategy - I would also suggest that you should review Microsoft's evangelism strategy (complements of anti-trust efforts) at:

http://antitrust.slated.org/www.iowaconsumercase.org/011607/3000/PX03096.pdf

...you can see misdirection is part of the playbook. And of course:
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET or if you prefer
WP8 IS THE NEW KIN, METRO UI IS THE BOB and SURFACE IS THE NEW PLAYBOOK.

John Waclawsky

http://www.zdnet.com/windows-has-fallen-behind-apple-ios-and-google-android-7000008699/

All the astroturfing in the world can't wipe out the TRUTH. More proof that;
NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE OR TABLET or if you prefer
WP8 IS THE NEW KIN, METRO UI IS THE BOB and SURFACE IS THE NEW PLAYBOOK.

cycnus

The war is on.....
The gauntlet has been slapped....
Google say NO ONE WANT WP / Windows8
http://www.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/news/2231503/google-shuns-windows-8-for-app-development

cycnus

@Tester

"Some interesting stuff in there.

But there's one thing in one of those stories that still utterly baffles me:

It gets repeated ad nauseum that the main motivation of this Frankensteinian monsters is to get people to buy a tablet with the same UI as they are used to on their PC.

How is this ever going to work out if people at worst hate it and at best grudgingly accept it.

In either case they'd make dead certain that they won't get the same failure on their tablet turning this design into a complete and utter failure.

I mean, how brain-dead must one be, to ignore all the negative feedback during the test phase and still believe that it would be a success that'd lock in the customers to the new UI? Plain old common sense would tell that the conversion rate with such a strategy will be horrendous."

I also found the fact/article were very amusing to me. Microsoft is a giant that have lots of $$$$. How could they do a beginner mistake like that. Anyway, here's is my thought:

In the iphone era, there were several story about Steve Jobs 'VISION' that might change Microsoft. I remember reading an article that say Steve Jobs throw a bunch of Machintos just because some smarty pants add a second button on the mouse. Then another article saying that at Apple, the employee didn't try to think what customer want, what they try to satisfied Steve Jobs vision. Maybe this is the reason of Metro/Modern UI. Steve Balmer thought that the HELL with what consumer want, he will dictate what's good for them. He's the new Steve Jobs.

Second, in the test phase, most of them who download the preview of Windows 8 is kind of Microsoft lover, so that while some will hate the new UI, there will be more who will love whatever microsoft throw at them. and this give the false self-esteem to Microsoft. This make them think that they can dictate the UI, and the user will love it eventually.

cycnus

I litterally LOL when seeing that microsoft astroturfer were loosing their self-esteem to proclaim Windows is the best. Their ability to insult android by morphing their statement into Apple is the best is very laughable.

This article is about Microsoft vs. Android, why Samsung, LG, Sony, HTC, Huawei, ZTE, etc choose Android over Microsoft. Why these manufacture will make money with Android instead of Windows, and because these manufacture can't produce a product with iOS. So, the discussion of Android loosing to Apple in this article is REALLY OFF TOPIC.

cycnus

As I said, that this Apple is better than Android is really offtopic in this thread, because no other manufacture can't product iOS device, this would be my last post talking about this here.

1. For Samsung, LG, HTC, Sony, Huawei, ZTE, etc. They only have several choice: Android (good), WP (bad), BB10 (not available now), Mozilla OS (not available), Palm/HP WebOS (not successful), Tizen (not available yet). So, it's obvious for these company to stay alive is to stick at Android at this moment, as they can't produce a device with iOS. So, the argument of iOS is better and give more profit is OFF-TOPIC
2. For those of you who don't understand the basic economy/need or just trying to bend some idea, here is a thought. Apple is able to gain US$ 700+ ASP, that's good for apple, so what? Do you really expecting all company just making the US$ 800 phone, and for those of them who have US$ 200 budget to buy used phone? Even BMW/Mercedes makes a cheap car (cheap = A-Class for Mercedes & 1-series for BMW). I'm really sorry that the world don't work the way you like it. If some company only create a high end, they will lose the opportunity at middle/low end.
3. On the subject that Apple make more $$$, that were in the past, Android were catching up very fast. Please remember that it just as early as 2011 that Android beat Apple in sales, but only in 2012 that Android beat apple in cumulative device. As Google Chairman, Eric Smith, said the momentum is with android. If you really need to argue this more, that really mean you were insincere.
4. Samsung Galaxy SIII were THE NUMBER ONE SELLER in UK FOR A STRAIGHT 7 month. If you're still saying that no one buy expensive android, you were trolling.
5. iphone user DOES change to android too. WHY? There were two reason. For apple early adopter / GEEK, android is cooler now, for some other, the large screen most droid have looks better than iphone tiny screen.

And the last...
The mayan has told us that on 21 December 2012 there will be a massive change in the world. Could the mayan were talking about microsoft/apple/google?

Lasko

I'm not upset, just curious, seriously.

Curious whether the 'turfing now has gone really that lousy so that the motto is now to directly attack Android users, because the only reason you are buying Android is because you a poor or this is really his personal opinion then I'm more of relieved and worried at the same time; relieved, that we no longer have to bother or worried that there are obviously really people on this people who think so - and who possibly need a wake-up-call.

Lasko

@Spawn

"Taken into account that WP8 is new and so fan-boys and initial run is reflected it looks as WP8 will even sell more worse then WP8."

It is not worse, it is disastrous.

"... recent channel checks in North America and Western Europe indicate Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) (HEL:NOK1V) (BIT:NOK1V) sales volumes that are quite low, while initial shipment volumes are similarly low. They estimate that the company is tracking toward shipping roughly 1 million new Windows 8 products in the December quarter, while it looks likely to sell through roughly half of those units, based on current run rates."

(Keep in mind that Nokia is the largest Windows Phone partner)

"Back in mid-November, Bloomberg cited the rise in Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) (HEL:NOK1V) (BIT:NOK1V) shares as being driven by reports that the Lumia 920 had seen strong demand in Germany. While this may have been the case for a few thousand initial units, channel checks indicate that retailers in Germany say they are only now beginning to receive the 920 across normal sales channels, and the volumes being received are still very small."

"The analysts believe there is some initial pent-up demand that is resulting in stores selling out of initial shipments in a few days. Nevertheless, they believe that this is largely to do with the low shipment volumes rather than surprisingly strong demand."

(and - keep in mind that AT&T is the largest launch partner)

"A somewhat similar dynamic is likely going on at AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) for the 920. Based on the inventory on hand, the analysts believe that AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) is selling only 10,000 to 15,000 Lumia 920 devices per week at the moment. The analysts’ theory is that stores are able to sell available stock in a few days; however, they believe most stores getting only a handful at a time."

10.000 to 15.000 a week! For comparison 1.3 million Android devices are activated each day.

Winter

@Lasko
"relieved, that we no longer have to bother or worried that there are obviously really people on this people who think so - and who possibly need a wake-up-call."

Have you ever seen a lawyer who could not find words to defend his client and disparage their opponent, ever?

And then there are partisans, who will defend their party and attack the others come what come.

Reason really never enters the equation.

Tester

@cygnus:

>> 5. iphone user DOES change to android too. WHY? There were two reason. For apple early adopter / GEEK, android is cooler now, for some other, the large screen most droid have looks better than iphone tiny screen.

Here's my list of reasons:

1. Apple has lost the technical advantage. Even last year the iPhone was undoubtedly the best phone around. Not anymore.
2. As you said, screen size matters and Apple missed this one completely.
3. Number of iPhone-exclusive apps decreasing.
4. The entire iPhone business model depends on milking more money from its consumers through the Apple ecosystem lock-in. Not everybody likes that.
5. Last but not least, Apple is no longer the only 'cool' player in town.


Regarding Microsoft, a small observation about 3.
I have been checking out some multiplatform app frameworks recently. The interesting thing here is that they can target lots of platforms - iOS, Android, Mac, Windows Desktop, bada, BB10 - but so far not Windows Phone 8.

The reason for this: All the other platforms offer OpenGL support. Windows Phone 8 does not. It uses Direct3D.
So Microsoft, by refusing to use the industry standard and instead again locking themselves into their own 'ecosystem' probably have put themselves out of the game this time. Nobody wants to invest time and money in a system that always needs to be handled separately from the others if it doesn't have significant market share.

So, if these frameworks gain popularity to streamline development of cross-platform apps, it will often be a piece of cake to support anything non-microsoft with only a minor amount of work. Microsoft support, on the other hand, will always have to be done separately.
I see this scenario as an utter disaster for Windows Phone. It will make a bad situation even worse than it is.

Spawn

@Tester

> The app situation is a pre-made recipe for disaster, though. What are these idiots thinking? How do they want to keep developer interest if they change the rules every few months?

WPF, Win Forms, Silverlight, etc. This introduction of new stacks followed by deprecation is going on for a while now. win32, the API that made Windows a success and the API that stayed available and compatible for decades, was meanwhile given up. While Windows RT has win32 only Microsoft Office and IE are able to use it. They put a self-made barrier on it to prevent ISV's actively to use it on there ARM versions. How can somebody that stupid? Do they really believe ISV's would all be happy to rewrite there software using the total incompatible Metro API just to figure out some months later its all deprecated again?

I not wonder ISV's start to port away from Windows only alltogether rather then jumping from win32 to Metro. Microsoft is forcing its ISV's to do that. They are pro-active destroying there ecosystem. Unique.

No, I do not wonder ISV's see Windows 8 as disaster (Valve, Blizzard, etc) since they are forced to either wait (like EA) or do heavy investments now, early, to keep up. Investments that not bring new customers. When they have to do that investments they WILL, if clever, conclude that thanks to Androidand iPhone, the Windows market alone doesn't catch it, They need to expand to other marketd, other platforms. Most ISV's wan't make a fuse about that. They just work on making there software cross-platform, not be vocal about it beforehand like Valve is and once done will just publish versions for iPhone and Android (if thatdid not happen already). Microsoft is losing its own ecosystem. Most new apps are cross-platform this days but the huge ones, those companies invested heavy into over last decades and not made the cross-platform step yet cause it doesn't pay out, are forced now to THINK of changes. Thanks to Microsoft they realize that something is changing and they NEED to invest to stay into the game. This WILL or already resulted in rethinking if the Windows only strategy makes sense at all any longer. Looking at the market shares, at the heavy shrinking PC market, at Microsofts lose to catchup to growing markets and at profitsbility WILL or already let them conclude that IF an investment is done its NOT metro but cross-desktop to be snd stay in the markets where customers and the money is.

Yes, end-game. Microsoft is losing its ecosystem lockin.

cycnus

@Tester

..."1. Apple has lost the technical advantage. Even last year the iPhone was undoubtedly the best phone around. Not anymore."

AGREE.

..."2. As you said, screen size matters and Apple missed this one completely."

AGREE.
Actually I kind of amused by this fact.
Back in the days Jobs still alive, he bash Android that multiple screen size = FRAGMENTATION, multiple screen resolution = FRAGMENTATION, and Dell should give a sandpaper with their 5" Dell streak. LOL. It turn out the technology were moving so fast that we're at 5" FULL-HD 440ppi (HTC Butterfly, Oppo Find 5) at the end of 2012 and it's really beat apple.

I'm very curious and anxious to know what will apple do. Will apple introduce a 5" device? or 4.7,4.5,4.3? Will apple increase their phone size and admit Jobs were wrong? Because what ever apple do, it would be a double edge sword for them. If they keep using the 4", they're device won't be cool anymore, but if they make bigger phone, they will admit they were wrong, and it would destroy their ego/image.

..."3. Number of iPhone-exclusive apps decreasing."

Did you notice that around 70% of game now were release for both platform at the same time.

..."4. The entire iPhone business model depends on milking more money from its consumers through the Apple ecosystem lock-in. Not everybody likes that."

Agree. on android, with carrier billing, the carrier got a 10% cut from google.

Spawn

@Tester

> The reason for this: All the other platforms offer OpenGL support. Windows Phone 8 does not. It uses Direct3D.

OpenGL is one factor but by no mesns the only one. Metro (including native, so C/C++) misses so much thst you just CANNOT just port. There is no posix compatibility (every OS includinv Windows 7 has posix compatibility but not Metro), there are no threads, no network-stack/sockets, no filesystem and so on.

As developer this are so big burdens that you either end rewriting most of your software or end in situations where you just CANNOT implement certain things cause Metro does not allow it. A year ago or so, when those limitations first "surfaced", developers asked Microsoft: How can Ido X or Y if the API doed not support it? Microsoft claimed it would successive add such functionality on demand. Since that NOTHING happened on the Metro API front. Microsoft added kids-cornef, inapp-payment and some other high-level featured but they not solved the fundamntsl problems like threads, sockets, etc. They promised tl have that all solved till launch, nothing happened.

Shame on us developers that we did not made the whole internet aware of it, that we did not splash a campaign and put enough pressure on Microsoft and enough awareness of that problems into everybodys mind. We did not. I think lots of us just do not care about WinARM Metro. Its just not ready and therevare so much alternates that are so why bother?

P.s. @baron95 like Metro-fans: I not say you cannot write your hello world applicatio. In Metro. Yes, you can! But I am not interested in 1001 hello world apps. Got it?

Tester

@Spawn:

I didn't know it was that bad. The OpenGL issue was a complete show stopper alone for the stuff I'm working on so I didn't really bother to read further specs.

I only work for a small company and we can't really afford to write core logic more than once. With the other platforms it's not really that hard if you know what you're doing but Windows Phone? No chance. First it was C# only and now that we got native code it's crippled to uselessness.

Lasko

WinRT does not only restrict applications to DirectX, it also restricts the DirectX API itself, so that ANGLE (the OpenGL/DirectX transition layer) cannot be used in WinRT applications. Further restrictions are exposed in the Microsoft Store requirements, which for example require object code for all shader binaries, which means it is not possible to dynamically compile shaders which is another huge let-down for developers.

"Shame on us developers that we did not made the whole internet aware of it, that we did not splash a campaign and put enough pressure on Microsoft and enough awareness of that problems into everybodys mind."

I think developers do so - by just not porting their applications to WinRT / Windows Store.

Tester

>> which for example require object code for all shader binaries, which means it is not possible to dynamically compile shaders which is another huge let-down for developers.

WTF?!???

I didn't even get that far but it would have killed any chance of the project I was evaluating for porting straight out of the box.

Dynamic shaders are an essential part of its design. Well done again, Micro$hit! Are they deliberately sabotaging any attempt to make their system succeed? This is insanity on an unbelievable level.

Well, it doesn't really matter. The project was killed outright when it became apparent that the abstraction layer to support WP8 would be too much work. This added bit of information is only the icing on the cake.

newbie reader

>>> Are they deliberately sabotaging any attempt to make their system succeed? >>>

For many years, main goal of MS developers/managers was to produce incompatibility and unportability. They're just doing what they're experts in. :-)

zlutor

@Tomi: some interesting news: http://www.4-traders.com/NOKIA-OYJ-1412498/news/Nokia-Oyj-Class-action-complaint-filed-against-Nokia-in-May-2012-has-been-dismissed-15592475/

Interesting...

vladkr

@cycnus:
Bigger screen is not necessarily better; for many people, a smartphone that doesn't fit in a pocket is useless.

@Zlutor: I read that; I'm surprised that no compensation was paid (if there was, we wouldn't know anyway if a confidentiality clause was signed). There may be other lawsuits; insider-trading at Nokia is obvious, but it's quite hard to prove. The one who will find the proof will win the jackpot.

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