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November 14, 2012

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foo

"Ok, am posting this preliminary blog now, as some are eagerly awaiting these numbers."

Thanks, Tomi.

I was one of those eagerly waiting for a new post. :)

Wayne Borean


No surprises really. It is rather sad seeing Symbian and Blackberry OS dying out.

Of course I'm one of the guys who was upset when the Commodore C64 went out of production.

Wayne

elm70

"but don't hold your breath, Windows Phone is proving a horrid and hated OS by the retail channel."

That means retail chain is happy with Android + Apple + RIM ?

Are you still expecting 5m Lumia for Q4 2012 ?

Finally ... PC market once Microsoft got a big dominance position, it become invincible, and it left the rest to play for a niche market ... can we see the parallel with Android today ?

Android got 70% of market, and it is still growing ... no signing of saturation so far.

Is the Mobile OS War over ?

There are rumours that Nokia, since lost leadership and follow up position on the Mobile business, is exploring to enter new market ... Nokia is looking to do everything, except gave up Microsoft partnership ..

RyanZA

"Of course I'm one of the guys who was upset when the Commodore C64 went out of production."

While it ultimately feels a bit unfortunate that the C64 (and symbian, blackberry, etc) went out of production, it was still a really good thing long term. For devs to make really good stuff, the less platforms the better, since each platform means more code, more bugs, different UI, etc etc. So even if C64s had kept chugging along, the stuff you ran on them would get worse and the stuff on other platforms would probably be a bit worse too.

Unfortunately the replacement was Windows which meant nobody could compete with their own versions. Android is luckily a very very good platform to have dominating. We already have a few different 'types' of android (Amazon, MIUI, x86 versions, etc) with more coming - and all of them are fully binary compatible so you can take all your stuff and move between the different types. This is a really, really good thing for the future of smartphone usage. (Things like Google Maps etc throws this out a bit, but hopefully we can see some nice alternative ones show up for Android.. maybe when Nokia wakes up and moves to Android compatibility?)


Tester

>> And thus, Samsung will sit atop the hill, but it will be a less and less profitable perch. Samsung MAY see that coming and try to use it's massive market position to take control of Android for itself. Fork Android as Amazon has. Replace Google's apps with it's own. Try and make a value proposition via software as Apple does. Progress they've made with their Galaxy Note and the Pen apps show that they are already on their way.

It remains to be seen.
Amazon is hardly a good example and I guess most of its customers will soon learn that they are the losers.

At the moment the name 'Android' sells and without keepin Google in they would not be allowed to use the name. Not something appealing to the high end market. It may be successful at the low end where cheap customers are looking at price only without ever questioning a device's viability.

Baron95

@Elm_70 "Finally ... PC market once Microsoft got a big dominance position, it become invincible, and it left the rest to play for a niche market ... can we see the parallel with Android today ?"

There is a big difference between Windows vs Mac and Android vs iOS.

Windows dominance came from the availability of 3rd party SW titles. There were many more Windows titles than Mac titles and many more DOS legacy programs that also ran on Windows. The playing field was severely tilted. And that happened because more people were BUYING Windows titles than Mac OS Titles.

In iOS vs Android, the opposite situation exists. There are more iOS titles than Android titles, and many, many, many more consumers BUYING (paying) iOS titles than Android titles.

Second, the mobile OS battle does not make distinction on devices like Tomi wants you to make. When Facetime developed the new app, they didn't think of iPhone market. They thought of the iPhone PLUS iPodTouch PLUS iPad market. They also thought about how affluent and attractive to advertisers those users are. And they, correctly, chose to launch their flagship new app on iOS.

And as OS X and iOS converge, iOS is actually helping sell Macs (which have outperformed Windows PCs basically since the iPhone launched).

It is not true, as Tomi, claims that SW developers favor the platform with the most units shipped. They favor the platform with the most valuable consumers (either buyers of apps or desirable to advertisers). Apple iOS still towers over Android, and there is little indication they will lose that position anytime soon.

The other guys - BB10, Symbian, Bada, etc - are in fact doomed. Not only do they have low volumes, but their customers have little to near zero value as apps/ad consumers. Windows is an interesting case - Microsoft may buy its way in. Still a long shot, but can happen with the Windows 8 leverage and a ton of cash.

elm70

@ Baron95

Yes, DOS legacy was the key for let Microsft win the war in the past ... but the war was very simple ... Microsoft did ride the success of Intel PC , clone of IBM ... this gave DOS/Windows PC a huge price advantage over Apple Mac

Same we see now ... multiple Android providers with price war ... vs premium Apple iPhone

iPhone today has still the advantage to have had 2 years head start compared to Android , plus Apple now has a very solid relationship with the telecoms, that help them to maximize the sales ... US telecoms are pushing iPhone like never ... as example iPhone 5 is sold by US telecom at same price as Samsung S3, that is 30% cheaper

Anyhow Android + iPhone cover almost 90% of the market ... both are still growing ... yes ... I don't expect iPhone to decline anytime soon, but I see a parallel to the PC business : Android dominant like was Windows in the PC ... Apple to take care of a niche but well profitable market ... the rest will be nothing commercial ... like the today Ubuntu ... there is a space for MeeGo/Jolla ... for the freak niche

Windows and Microsoft have failed over 10 years on the Mobile OS market, and there is no sign that this will change

All the money of Microsoft can do nothing against a dominant open source OS

The first confirmation of my view will come soon, if Microsoft will have dignity to release the ultra low sales of Windows 8 RT , and their useless Surface Tablet ... in the Q4 open balance report

Tchuss

E_lm_70

bjarneh

Baron95> It is not true, as Tomi, claims that SW developers favor the platform with the most units shipped. They favor the platform with the most valuable consumers (either buyers of apps or desirable to advertisers).

nobody is making any money in that app-store, the largest platform will win because providers of services will make apps for it, this is where developers make their money. i'm developer, i don't make money trying to build the next facebook or angry birds, i make a living writing programs for people who need them, and they typically need to reach their customers.

take online banking as an example, all the banks in Norway (where i'm from) have to make Android apps, since this is the biggest platform. they need developers to do it naturally, this is where the real value with these app-stores are in terms of being a developer.

your argument is very common, but ask developers, what percentage of them make a living off something they pushed for themselves on the app-store?

Baron95

@bjameh "nobody is making any money in that app-store,"

What a ridiculous statement.

eBay, Facebook, Skype (Microsoft), Netflix, NYtimes, etc, etc, etc are generating a growing part of their revenue from the App Store.

Additionally, multiple companies like American Airlines, HSBC, are relying heavily on App Store to reduce costs, increase customer loyalty, by their Apps, which has value in the billions.

You have a very distorted idea on how money is made on the App Store. Independent ISV (with the exception of breakaways like Rovio) are not it. Most of the money being saved/made in the App Store is in corporate loyalty, customer self care, shopping, news/entertainment apps.

American Airlines and HSBC will continue to make sure their apps work particularly well and first on iOS simply because iOS users, on average, tower in comparison to Android users in all commercial interest measures (disposable income, age, location, advertiser desirability, influencer status, etc).

Ad buying rates (CPMs) on iOS are many multiples than on Android.

You can think it is a unit volume game only, but it is not. It is still a customer value game. Ownership of an iPhone on a data plan one of the most valuable determinants of customer value around. Sadly, with the invasion of Lenovo and ZTE and Huawai low cost pre-paid Android phones, the situation will only get worse for Android.

tgee

The reason of iOS app sales isn't the iPhone, it is the iPad. Android has yet to make a dent in there and with limited fragmentation. Google nexus 7 may be what it takes to do so as Samsung stupidly missed the 7/8 inch format for the notepad.
Microsoft also missed that format, but apple is now there... So is rim, that may rejoice its tablet with an enterprise success of bb10.
I'm convinced that both the tablet and the phone will ship and tehter together. Which means, less in the phone and more in a wifi only tablet. The winner will be the one that make carriers accept this dual headed device, possibly with limiting the hotstop capability to the pair tablet.
NFC Telco stack wifi hotspot miracast but no Bluetooth, limited storage and memory, no front camera in the phone. Limited screen.
And the muscles in the tablet, but neither NFC nor Telco stack.
Somehow I'm disappointed Jolla tried a follower
product approach. But Nokia may have what it takes to risk something different.
The phone can be a feature phone + a miracast dongle
The tablet can be the second screen, the trackpad or penpad couple to a Bluetooth keyboard. Hence with 3 devices, I can group the features of many devices, with minimal overlap.
It just takes not to consider each devices separatly.

tgee

Forget to add that in this model, carrier would differentiate on national media content which they shall already be ready for.

bjarneh

Baron95> What a ridiculous statement.

Baron95> eBay, Facebook, Skype (Microsoft), Netflix, NYtimes, etc, etc, etc are generating a growing part of their revenue from the App Store.

these are not *DEVELOPERS*, this is exactly my point.

Baron95> It is not true, as Tomi, claims that SW developers favor the platform with the most units shipped. They favor the platform with the most valuable consumers.

"They" are SW developers right?

corporations etc is a different story, *they* will prefer whatever they think customers want.. but for software developers there really is no Android vs. IOS, i'll gladly write one program for each platform for twice the salary, doesn't matter to me...

corporations cannot ignore the largest platform, so there will be MORE Android development in the future than IOS/Windows/Bada/Tizen etc, unless there is a unifying way to write code for all platforms. HTML5 seems to be the only way forward in this direction, but it is a horrible direction (Javascript) IMO.

Bob,Boulder, Colorado

Google is poised to be the winner of this smartphone battle. I see more and more carrier blowback to the huge iphone subsidies. Iphone will probably retain its lead in US, but in the rest of world, battered by recession and by a consumer profile markedly different from the ever spending US consumer profile, they will switch over completely to android which will provide everything iOS does, but at a lower cost and sometimes android will even provide better services for free.

Google is the undisputed champion of web and this is the weapon that will help google win the smartphone war. Google is like an ultimate naval power in a world composed only of infantries and tanks and other outdated technologies like OS and hardware. The profits will all be in services.

HUber

@Baron: iOS is easier to develop for, I just recently talked to some guys from Startup companies, and they told me they develop first for iOS simply because it is easier.

Hence they have a lower time-to-market and get some revenue earlier. Additionally, they just need to hire iOS-developers at first, which saves costs.

One guy told me that he despises Apple in private for their locked down system, but his business decision is iOS first nevertheless.

This is why people claim Apple gets the 'cool' Apps first, and there certainly is some truth in it.

OTOH, when big corporations release Apps, they usually have the budget to develop for both Android and iOS from the beginning.

These are for example banks, insurances etc. Usually these companies analyze how much of their own customers use iOS or Android and prioritize their App development accordingly.

Other companies, like Denon with their App-based Smartphone Remote Control, start with one OS (mostly iOS), then the other follows.
But this is only a limitation for a short time. After the Android-App is released, both Apps normally get the same upgrades, since the know-how is there now.

Finally, low-cost smartphones get better and better. What nowadays is considered low-end would have been high-end in 2010.
At the same time, mobile data plans become cheaper and cheaper. So the number of people who use Android-smartphones like they used to use their dumb phone is shrinking.

The sheer number of Android phones with mobile data available will attract developers in the future, especially when the number of high-end Android phones will exceed the number of iOS phones in total. Then the cheap Androids are an additional incentive to go for Android

foo

@LeeBase "It will be more like Coke/Pepsi. Two giants with everyone else marginalized. Google will be coke with the largest market share. Apple will be Pepsi with the most revenue."

According to Beverage Digest's 2008 report on carbonated soft drinks, PepsiCo's U.S. market share is 30.8 percent, while The Coca-Cola Company's is 42.7 percent.

Compare that to Android's 70% against iOS 15%. There is no comparison. And the difference is increasing.

For instance: the difference between Apple (#2) and Huawey (#3) reduced from 12% to 6% in one quarter. That's right, folks: if the trend continues, Apple will drop to #3 in two quarters.

Android is quickly becoming the Windows of mobile, except that it is open source -- a huge advantage for the manufacturers who adopt it.

There is no reason for a manufacturer to adopt WindowsPhone (except the heavy handed tactics from Microsoft involving patent suits). There is little space for differentiation, so they only can compete on price or become a niche player. And they become hostage of Microsoft, which is never good. (See Nokia)

cycnus

What's interesting in Tomi's bloodbath war data were:

* In Q4 2012 RIM probably will be out of 10. because RIM lost around 1% of market share each quarter
* In Q1 2013 RIM would still be out of 10.

* Huawei will be number 2 in 1 or 2 or 3 quarter. Depending how well iphone 5 sales number is. Tomi still believe that apple will sell a truck load of iphone 5, and Huawei won't beat apple for another year.... if huawei manage to kick apple from number 2, then some other company too... apple will be piss off.

* If RIM and Nokia out of number 10 in Q4 2012, that's mean 9 android manufacture vs. iphone.

chithanh

@HUber how recently did you talk to them? In the Freelancer Fast 50 report for 2011 (released in February 2012) it was predicted that Android development jobs would overtake iOS by Q4 2012, at least when it comes to freelancing.

Huber

@chithanh:

I talked to them about two weeks ago.

But note that these were guys from small Startups. They lack money and focus first on iOS because it is cheaper (less different devices, resolutions etc.). Only when their iOS-App succeeds do they have money for an according Android-App.

Bigger corporations don't have such problems, so your statistic could very well be correct.

Also my evidence is anecdotal, perhaps other Startups do it different to those I personally talked to.

foo

@LeeBase: "If you further realize that there are "smart phones" and there are "super phones", and realize that it's not particularly meaningful to compare the sales of the cheap low end android phones to the Galaxy SIII, Motorola Razor and the iPhone -- you'd see that "in it's class" the iPhone is doing very well indeed."

Good point.

"And no, Apple has NOT competed in the low end, no profit margin segments in ANY of the other markets. There are $10 mp3 players, but Apple doesn't make them. There are $250 laptops/netbooks, but not made by Apple. Apple released the iPad mini, but nowhere near the marginless price points that the 7" Android tablets are going for."

I beg to differ: Apple does compete in the low end, with iPhone 4 -- which is free with contract.

So, while I agree Apple still has a big chunk of the superphones (and I think that Tomi should consider using this segmentation in his analysis), they also compete with cheap Android phones by offering iPhone 4 for free.

John Waclawsky

Haven't you guys figured it out Baron95 is a Microsoft astroturfer. Just ignore him. Your cluttering up the comment section with a troll discussion. See:
http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/AstroTurfing

John Waclawsky

Status on Microsoft's decline:
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/11/14/microsoft-has-failed/

Nokia should read this.

Baron95

These comments that Google will win the smartphone war is very funny. So far, Google has spent about $3B acquiring and developing Android, it has spent $12B acquiring Motorola to get patents to defend Android, and an unknown amount marketing Android, including launching the Nexus line to show pure Android. So lets say $20B invested.

And Google has yet to make a cent in profit from Android.

Yes, Google has indirect profit from selling ads into Android devices. But would it be selling less ads if it had not developed Android? Hard to say. They clearly pissed off Apple to the point that they lost the ability to sell ads into the native iOS Maps app. They similarly got crowded out of Nokia devices. And Amazon devices. So it can even be argued that Android is causing Google to sell less mobile ads.

Yes, it it may work out for Google long term. Or it may not. Hard to say. Right now, Google is like China selling nuclear technology to rogue nations so they can challenge the West (Apple). It is not clear that it ultimately benefits China to do so. But it clearly benefited the likes of Pakistan (Samsung).

Now. What is the future for Android licensees. Lets take a look at HTC. They had to agreed to pay MIcrosoft in the $10/device. And now settled with Apple, likely for another $10/device. They have to pay Qualcomm $5-$10/device. (the royalties are actually percentages on sale price in some cases). So, ultimately, ZTE, Lenovo, Samsung, like HTC, once they get big enough and go through the court cases, have to start paying the US West Coast tax on every device. And on top of that, they have to fight against one another almost exclusively on price.

So - good luck being profitable in that world. Maybe Samsung who ran away on volumes can do it. But no one else can and likely even Samsung will suffer once HTC, Nokia, RIM, Moto recover from some of their stumbles.

I can tell you one thing. I would not want to be an investor in any company whose primary product is churning out Android phones.

Earendil Star

John, thanks for your insight.

An other interesting read is the following: http://semiaccurate.com/2011/03/14/microsoft-gutted-nokia-and-left-them-without-a-chance/

It provides a lots of insight in what must have gone on between MS and Nokia.

And how this could happen under the oversight of Jorma Olilla is unfathomable. Blackmailed? Who knows.

But, sad stories aside, what I see is the usual trolls trying to cover hard facts (Android supremacy) with utter nonsense.

You know what? Who cares. Given the current speed of events, we won't be hearing from them much longer.

Just wait and see what happens when MS' money dries out...!

Tester

Do you really trust that bullshit site? I prefer to get my information from less biased sources.

I clicked through 5 or 6 articles there and it's all anti-Windows rants. Not what I'd call informative. There may be a grain of truth buried under all that hate but I don't feel like digging it out from all the waste.

Oh, and concerning Nokia, behold the arrogance they displayed years ago and which undoubtedly caused in no small part their eventual demise:

http://www.engadget.com/2007/11/05/symbian-nokia-microsoft-and-apple-downplay-android-relevance/

bjarneh

Baron95> Yes, it it may work out for Google long term. Or it may not. Hard to say.

70% market share and rising, it really is hard to say..


@Tester, @Earendil Star

nice articles!

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