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November 19, 2012

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Comments

cycnus

That's why, good analyst like Mr. Tomi Ahonen is like a rare gem.

Unlike so called analyst like pyramid research and other.... who were like RAW GAME... as raw as cheap coal

:)

PK de Cville

About the 'surprising 4% increase' in African American voting in Ohio.

You might remember Ohio as the state that somehow cant find enough voting machines in black precincts, even after 'learning' about the problem in 2008!

This year, Blacks were more ready to wait 4 hrs or more to cast their vote.

Voter resolve to make a difference by standing in line made the difference for the 'surprising' 4%.

Let's give them a hand. Applause.

Winter

Is this analysis not a very long list of reasons why Romney would have been a bad president to begin with?

If the POTUS would make Romney's mistakes while in office, the disaster would have been horrific.

On the other hand, a person who can handle people and campaigns so well as to win re-election during a recession with massive unemployment, one can hope that s/he will recruit these talents to govern the country well.

Above all, the whole elections circus is also a "Governing test" for candidates. If you cannot handle your campaign well, you most likely will be unable to handle the office neither.

Afewgoodmen

Whop. A great analysis from no one else but the master. I totally relished the 9000 + words of it. And I didn't regret any time spent on reading.

The US is a complex country quite alright, but in my opinion it is still the epitome of democracy worldwide.

Olavi

The best clown in a clown show is still a clown. And this time the Republicans fielded only clowns in their primary and ended up with Romney. Yet they still ended up with 48% of the vote even with such an unpalatable team. That could have been a landslide if the presidential and vice presidential candidates had been even minimally competent.

Wayne Borean


It's been fascinating following the recriminations. Pardon for the mess below, HTML tags don't seem to want to work...

**********
Stop the circular firing squad. I’m here to tell you it is not only crazy, it is counterproductive.

No, Mitt was not the man we wanted. Yes, he was shoved on us by the establishment. But he was the best candidate we could have this year, and he campaigned well. He campaigned like he wanted it. Unlike McCain, he deserves our thanks, and a place as speaker at future conventions.

Why did we lose then?

Let’s start with the media. You don’t have to take my word for it. Go look at videos of the conventions.  The Republicans’ reasonable convention, reasonable concentrating on the economy, made not a dent. But the Democrats abortionpalooza where we were told we belonged to the government, that became the great convention of the century.
**********

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/11/07/no-regrets-no-apologies/?singlepage=true

And a view from someone I'd regarded as a bit more level headed.

**********
I found out early on Election Day that Mitt Romney wouldn’t become our next president. I called my father, and he answered sounding somber. He told me that, based on early polling numbers, he didn't see a foreseeable way for Romney to pull it off. There’s a very specific tone of voice my father uses to deliver bad news, and I flashed back to 2008. Still, I must have been in denial, because I pointed out that Ohio and Florida hadn’t been called yet, and we all know that elections are decided in Ohio! My father just sighed and said, “Honey, I’m sorry.” I started to choke back tears.
**********

It is basic logic. When you alienate voting blocks, they vote against you. Less basic is that when you work for a voting block, only a certain percentage will vote for you.

As you said, effectively there were five elections. Each one had its specifics, while sharing some common ground, i.e. voteing blocks that cross state lines.

Romney alienated key voting blocks in battleground states. He also alienated several country-wide voting blocks. Alienating people doesn't win you votes. I'm surprised he gained so any votes, but I'm often surprised by the obtuseness of the American Electorate.

Neither of the two candidates was ready to tackle the big issues that face the United States.

1) The Corporate Welfare Bums (Lockheed Martin et al)
2) The over-incarceration issue
3) The runaway Patent/Copyright/Trademark systems
4) Under-regulation of the Finance system
5) The virtually non-existent Health Care System
6) Corporate capture of Agencies, and the Legislature
7) Politics controlled by the Rich
8) Tax reform
9) Corporate reform

So in 2016 they'll have another election, the same problems will still exist, and once again it will be style over substance.

Wayne

Amanda

Thank you. I live in Florida. IN 2010 we elected a Governor that everyone in Orlando hates. But the older gals in The Villages love. The Very, very retro Southern state legislators tossed out the republicans in democrat precincts by orchestrating six hour lines. Most Republicans in central and Southern Florida are over 65. Really, really stupid. Voter suppression made it prideful for the suppressed groups to stand tall- and vote. (besides being younger and able to)

The generation gap between baby boomers and the over 65 is still huge. They may not have jumped a guy and cut his hair but most wanted to. They still hate us. The male chauvinist pigs though love that their team is the bad boy and the females of the same age rub shoulder with some of those retro boys. Hey they hand their cash, their friend's cash and their family's cash to the ones with the bling. After all, ghetto culture got their ideas from Hollywood ideals. High school educated white males in the south also had Plantation owners for hundreds of years convincing them to hand their cash to their "betters." Where is the data showing sex and age and vote broken out so we can see that the women have wised up?

Democrats have the ethical and moral high ground. (See now Republicans can say that for 30 years and propagandize it.) Republicans set a very low bar. They stand for Nothing. Zip. Zero. Nothing to effect anyone I know or have ever known.

Except, they have the cash.

large acrylic pearls

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vladkr

Wayne :
All these issues you describe for the US are true for other (many) countries as well.

Poor world

Wayne Borean


Vladkr,

Agreed. They just tend to be more noticeable in the United States, because American news tends to show up everywhere in the Enlish speaking world. Chinese and Russian news doesn't.

And of course I live in Canada. We refer to our position as a "mouse sleeping next to an elephant", if the elephant rolls over, or trashes its economy, we are in trouble.

Wayne

vladkr

I've recently been in California and Hawaii... I was amazed that, according to US news, Sandy stopped at the Canadian border... just like Alien attacks, asteroids, viruses, etc. in Hollywood movies.

Is it thanks to Harper's super-strong border protection services ?

Harper Mann

Thanks for your work on digging through the numbers and coming up with these judgments backed by the exit polling data and your analysis.

I appreciate the effort.

May I please ask if you'd consider putting the Turnout Data (2012 vs 2008) for the four key swing states into an HTML table, or at least use a fixed-width font for them, so that it's easier for folks to read?

Burberry Scarf

Most Republicans in central and Southern Florida are over 65. Really, really stupid. Voter suppression made it prideful for the suppressed groups to stand tall- and vote. (besides being younger and able to)

The generation gap between baby boomers and the over 65 is still huge. They may not have jumped a guy and cut his hair but most wanted to. They still hate us. The male chauvinist pigs though love that their team is the bad boy and the females of the same age rub shoulder with some of those retro boys.

Jon

Tomi, I've really enjoyed reading your views and analysis on this US election, although I'm a little surprised at the lack of Elop bashing contained within..haha. I just read an article confirming that Romney ultimately secured 47% of the popular vote, which is ironic karma given his judgemental comments targeted at 47% of the US population.

Bruno Crespo

Very smart analysis, but take a look at this: "I think Republican consultants are mostly very stupid. I think they have no education. I think they have no sense of history. … If I throw away African Americans, and then I throw away Latinos, and then I throw away suburban women, and then I throw away people under 40, and then I throw away everything north of Philadelphia — there’s a morning where Republicans can’t get to a majority." This is the opinion of Newt Gingrich in 2007. And the position about inmigration of Romney was due to atacking the much less extreme position of Newt Gingrich about that.

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Hantu13

Lots of observers have pointed out that Obama lost the white vote. The national numbers, however, are actually quite deceptive. Romney's margins amongst white voters nationally is the result of huge margins amongst these voters in traditionally Republican states, primarily those of the old Confederacy. Outside of the South, the state polls show that Obama split or won the white vote in most states.

Interestingly, this regional anomaly shows up in the rural/urban breakdown as well. Obama won most of the large Southern cities, but lost by massive margins in the rural areas. In the North, Midwest and West, the margins were much, much tighter. Romney's losses in wealthy, highly educated, suburbs of major cities- Somerset, NJ, Fairfax, VA, etc. bodes very poorly for Republicans moving forward.

Eurofan

@Hantu13: Thank you for your observations. I wondered about that, "the white vote", and your comment clears up my uncertainty. Its the Southern male white vote that Obama had a problem with, not the white male in general.

Don Breen

What "the national exit poll" are you using? "The national Exit Poll says 65% of Americans want illegal immigrants to be given a chance to apply for legal status." "The split on immigration was 120,000 votes in Obama's favor" ??

globalcrawling

Very quiet here, did you ran out of bad news and projections for Nokia as of late?

Frank Baker

This is excellent analysis. Mr. Obama is an incredibly talented politician. He beat the Clinton political machine to win the democratic nomination and the presidency twice.
Wayne's comments on the media bias for Obama are accurate and easy to miss if you don't live in the US.

The conservatives have a problem getting their story out. With the exception of a few narrow media outlets that believers listen to, there is nothing to match liberal media bias. This includes music, movies, news and more. "In the liberal universe, bad guys are greedy corporate types, Christian extremists, Israel, the U.S. military, millionaires, and billionaires. The good guys are journalists, trial lawyers, union leaders, Palestinians, and government agencies..."
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/334080/after-crack-lee-habeeb
Obama's policies hurt those he claims to defend. Income is down for the lower and middle earners. Unemployement is higher among minorities.

Obama will lead the US down the fiscal cliff. At this time of crisis, he offers a proposal to raise taxes and increase wasteful government spending. Within two days of the election, conservatives capitulated with an offer to raise tax revenue through limits on deductions for the wealthy. Meanwhile, the media narrative is that conservatives are unreasonable and they want to protect the rich. Obama talks about how the rich must pay their fair share yet the top 2 percent pay nearly half of all income taxes in the US, and the bottom 46% don't pay any income taxes. Is it fairer if they pay 75 percent of all taxes? I am not in the top tiers, but I pay my fair share of taxes. The media narrative should focus on the fact that increases in taxes on the rich won't pay for bloated wasteful government spending that Obama promotes.

paul

'If the Republicans continue their wars against Latinos and an amnesty to them, and the war against women and abortion, and threatening Medicare'????

Please stick to technology reporting. It's a good place for flaming liberals and socialists that live in an ivory tower.

Andrew S

It's unfair to Romney's campaign to talk about how many critical voters he could have gained with a different VP choice without also considering how many he would have lost in not having Paul Ryan. In fact, I believe that Romney's campaign did very well, especially given the incompetence of its leader/candidate. They maximized the number of electoral votes they could receive given the positions and personality of their candidate.

vpills

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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