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October 26, 2012

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foo

Samsung dominates smartphone shipments as Nokia crashes

Apple manages to grow while BlackBerry-maker RIM and Finland's Nokia struggle in fast-moving smartphone market, says IDC

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/oct/26/samsung-apple-smartphones-q3-2012?newsfeed=true

vladkr

Hei Tomi,

Apple will release its iPad mini; will you consider it as a small tablet, or as a big iPhone (wifi+cellular model)?

How will it be considered in the statistics ?

cycnus

Tomi,

Are you grown tired of running this web site, or the destruction of nokia blog... :)

Anyway,
1.
Why do apple launch their ipad mini?? Do you think Apple starting feel the pressure of 7" Android tablet, that it launch it's ipad mini?

2.
Do you think other android vendor like Sony, LG, HTC, Motorola will rise?
Sony have a solid hardware, but in the beginning of 2012 they don't realize that user want big screen, but their catching up now.
LG is also on the rise with the rumored LG nexus
HTC seems starting to understand the need of 5" device.
Motorola would be interesting next year, since it's bellong to google.

3.
What about nokia raising money?
is there any small print that would make elop able to steal more european money through that event?

4.
RIM,
you seldom write about RIM

zlutor

Yes, and Nokia is not in Top 5 smartphone manufacturer...
Great...

Robert

Only drama left - when will Nokia finally be stripped of assets and killed.

leebase

Some milestones. Apple seems no longer to be in danger of temporary profits. Solid number 2 position. Successful in the US and everywhere else. Premium customers apparently exist even in China.

Apple quarterly profit almost enough to buy Nokia. One quarter's profit. From the niche market smartphone maker.

Is it a coincidence that the largest two smartphone manufacturers also compete in tablets? Is it time to recognize the broader ecosystem impact on sales of smartphones?

Why is RIM losing enterprise customers...why are iPhones being adopted by former unassailable RIM strongholds in the enterprise and in governments? Does Msft/Nokia have a play for that market?

Who should be on the death watch? Is HTC undergoing a blip or a slide into oblivion? Other than Apple which marches to it's own beat -- what is the basis in competition for marketshare going forward? How are HTC, Sony, ZTE, Huwai to assail Samsung?

Are you going to make a prediction on the death of Nokia (or when it will be broken up and acquired)?

Plenty of stories to follow in the Smartphone Bloodbath.

cycnus

Judging by the small number of word use in this post (by tomi), and the tone of the article....
i feel that tomi write this while drunk in a bar or strip club

n9

"Why is RIM losing enterprise customers" simple bb7 is far worse than symbian ever was.
Still RIM is floating minimizing market share loses wile it tries to insert its new BB10...

Nokia plan pretty much crashed and burn we will see about RIM's one.

Winter

Tomi,

The interesting question now is how fast Smartphones will replace featue phones (1-2 billion) and all other dumbphones (4-5 billion)?

Another interesting question is when the cheap Chinese phonemakers will outsell Samsung in the low end Android market?

m

Declaring the end of war before WP8 even gets their pants on, is a prediction that WP8 will be completely irrelevant. I think that's a fairly interesting prediction, that would be very interesting to watch. The war may be over but there must certainly be plenty more casualties to come? Or do you really think it's done, and all that's left for the losers is a slow, boring decline?

Winter

@m
MS will be one casualty. Next summer there will have been 1 billion Android phones activated. WP8 still needs to be released. WP8 has all the thrill and cool of the Zune

John Waclawsky

WP8 is not new it comes from a long line of failed Microsoft attempts. An older but interesting read at: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/Q4.06/2E6D9BB2-FE1B-4556-8389-67BD581FBCCC.html give some history and past patterns of behavior. You can easily update this piece by changing the players names and some product names (except for Microsoft) and see the same patterns. Its simple: NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

Tester

>> NO ONE WANTS A WINDOWS PHONE!

Except the press, it seems. It's ridiculous what idiotic things I have read over the last few days - all from people who blindly think that MS equals instant success. Of course the same crap was reported when WP7 was released.

We'll see how many sheep they find who fall for it this time...

chithanh

@Winter: Samsung has mostly ceded the low-cost smartphone market to Huawei and ZTE. They have only a couple of phones there which basically sell via the Galaxy brand.

What will happen with Apple is more interesting. Samsung seems determined to not deliver any more smartphone components to Apple[1], question is if Apple can buy them in needed quantities from elsewhere before the supply from Samsung dries up.

[1] http://semiaccurate.com/2012/10/23/apple-vs-samsung-samsung-put-the-boot-in-hard/

oncemaemodeveloper

Not really related to smartphone wars in general -- I claim Taskumuro's account of what happened with Nokia and MeeGo is pretty good:

http://taskumuro.com/artikkelit/the-story-of-nokia-meego

It puts a lot of weight on hardware, though. I have no idea if OMAP really was such a big deal.

I know for a fact that Linux can be made to work on almost any hardware. That is the gist of it and Nokia had the expertice. Artem Bityutskiy for one designed the flash-optimized UBI-filesystem working for Nokia. He was not alone. For a while (2008-1010) Nokia was one of the biggest corporate contributors to the Linux kernel, second to noone but Red Hat and Intel.

Elop said Nokians cannot code. I wish we still get an opportunity to show him it is not so.

cycnus

@leebase

good one.
I also think the rise of the big screen smartphone make the hardware keyboard become less important because with small 3.5" like apple, the keyboard take 1/2 of the screen when we type, but with a gigantic 5" galaxy note or 4.7" galaxy s3, we still have a screen as big as iphone 3.5" screen while using the soft-keyboard.... but i'm not analyst, and wondering is this true...

Janne Särkelä

There's an interesting trend in mobile computing: the ever diminishing physical storage space. In the desktop world we got used to always larger (denser) storage. Now that the consumers are being accustomed to having everything online it allows for the development of new kind of mobile devices, which basically can comprise only of a screen, wireless connectivity and a processor + some cache memory. The processing power can also be distributed on multiple devices over the network. The rigid paradigm is coming to an end, and I wouldn't be surprised by a foldable device coming relatively soon to the market. All of the mayor players are building on the cloud and Microsoft's take is not too bad (You get the same window-puzzle to your data on any device), but they are not as trusted as Samsung or Apple.

Apple's Q3 R&D spending grew 40% from 2011, while Nokia's diminished 15%. Samsung says that 1 in 4 of its employees work in R&D. At least Apple is better be researching if Samsung ceases to deliver tech :) Microsoft is on a tight rope here, because they are not a tech firm although now they are trying with Surface - and Nokia is in difficulties to deliver.

Winter

@janne
The next (2) billion smartphones replace cheap feature and dumbphones. There will be no money for expensive data plans or cloud solutions. Very likely many will only use WiFi hotspots for data.

So, local storage and computing will be important factors for some time in the future..

foo

IDC: Smartphone Shipments Rise 45%

Smartphones shipments rose 45.2 percent in the third quarter compared to the same year-ago period, says IDC. In total, mobile phone makers shipped in 179.7 million smartphones in 3Q12.

http://www.datamation.com/mobile-wireless/idc-smartphone-shipments-rise-45.html

cycnus

@Janne & @Winter

First @Janne,
I also used to believe that data plan were too expensive, but seeing on how data plan price were going down, and the speed of 4G, I think in the very near future (1 or 2 year from now) most notebook might have some 4G module.

@Winter
But.... I also think local storage is also important.
1. The Megapixel in camera is getting bigger, video recording capabilities is also getting better. It would be nice if I can go on vacation and don't need to bring the notebook because my phone got 128GB or 256GB storage.
2. Entertainment... Game size is also getting bigger, for example the game soccer 2012 is almost 1 GB. and i think it won't take long until 1 game in phone/tablet hit 2GB - 4GB.
3. Movie, Song, etc.

Duke

Windows Phone 8 is a piece of crap . Even astroturfers like "windowphone8 is a ..." aren't likely to buy one LOL! I am not going to play the game for search engines to find that nonsense. They will find the word "crap" :-)

newbie reader

There's ***more action pending in the tablet/phablet market***

In Q3 2012 Apple lost 10% of market share to Android, but still

pretty strong with over 50%.

But until now, ***Samsung hasn't really tried to dismount Apple*** from N1 there, busy with SGS3 and Note. Galaxy tabs used to be pretty weak

hardware-wise.

That time is over. New Google/Samsung Nexus 10 has better 300ppi

screen than iPad4 and newest A15 Exynos 5xxx 32nm.

Chinese also aim to tap high end of tablet market, see this funny

"slice an Apple on Huawei MediaPad 10 FHD" video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_k9bThlSwM

Cheap 4-core 28nm MTK6588 CPU is coming at the end of this year.

Apple puts its foot into 7" market with iPad Mini.

Besides smartphones and 10" tablets, I see two other well-defined

markets.

One is form-factor of around 5", Note-like phablets. Buyer gave up idea of *comfortable* phone calls, in favor of bigger screen.

Another is 7" (my personal choice btw) Buyer gave up idea of *any* phone calls, in favor of even bigger screen for apps, but should still fit easily into the pockets.

My personal consumer choices right now are
1. Feature phone //Nokia :)// for hassle-free phone calls
2. To be carried with 7" Android tablet (big screen, but still mobile)
Used for all needy smartphone things like browsing, emails etc.
3. Good old powerful desktop. I'm notebooks hater.

Here (if consumers share my choices) I see a good chance for rise of alternative smartphone vendors.


That is, if I to choose one-device-for-all, it's surely Android/iPhone (=Samsung/Apple)

However, once I opted smartphone jobs to 7-tablet, I need a very different kind of the phone for the rest of it. (in my case it is good old feature phone, but it is rather a substitute and not a new purchase)

Battery-effective, small, very reliable, bug-free proprietary, exellent cam and music. Tons of apps are not necessary. Good old keys for blind use, I may add.

OS-wise, some RIMM QNX *RTOS* phone could fit nicely here.

Tgee

@newbie, almost one the same line, but would like a feature phone+, ie no touch no app, but
- wifi hotspot for 4g added to it for tethering and avoid a 4g key.
- miracast source sink, to enable dumb monitor with mixing tv/tablet or tv/pc inputs outputs as overlays or side by side.

I really don't see the point of 4g in tablets or smart tv. But i see a 7/8", tablet as a laptop and camcorder replacement (but not quit here yet) with a real usb keyboard though and tv monitor to hook (wireless miracast) to. And such a tablet would serve most of my video calls better than any phone.

@oncemaemodeveloper blaming on ti is bullshit. It was not ti forcing to buy ti! Nokia lost cadence when sticking on omap3 while omap4 was here, probably because symbian couldnt support multicore. This also killed ti that really went out of phase with with the gpu, because of targeting the nokia early adopter and legacy needs, even though it's true ti gave up on radio, being late enter and thus late in patents in the area.

KenAdams

I think by the end of the next year Nokia may be gone (along with RIM):

http://techstew.blogspot.com/2012/10/demise-of-nokia-and-rim-in-2014.html

Carl Simoni

I disagree, the game just started to become more interesting. I am mainly thinking about Apple and their future. Jobs, the founder of the company and its charismatic leader has been away for 1 year now. We see Apple starting to get more and more bad press, stock price has declined nearly $100 in recent weeks despite the launch of Ipad Mini and Iphone 5, yesterday hot shot manager Scott Forestall was fired along with their retail manager.

All in all, Apple is now a market follower and no longer a market leader. There is a management crisis as shown by the departure of two top executives which means there are disagreements at top of the company. This has resulted in less than impressive and even faulty products like the unusable map feature in Iphone 5. Finally, it seems that the market for tablets is starting to become saturated. Sales of Ipad has been in decline for the past two quarters now.

The real interesting stuff will come when, not if, the first real crisis hits Apple, how will management react? Can they save the company or will they fail as it happened in the 1990'ies? It may happen sooner than later in this frenzy market that develops much faster than the pc industry ever did. Just look at what happened to Nokia, a few misstimed misssteps and you're gone. The ante is upped continuously, by Google becoming more agressive in both software and hardware, Huawai and ZTE from China churning out great and cheap phones, Samsung relentlessly pounding and leading the market with innovative products.

2013 certainly looks interesting!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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