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« Speed and Power of SMS: The 2012 Update | Main | A Look At the Handset Industry, Market and Installed Base in 2012 »

October 02, 2012

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ExSam

Will WP8 change the prospect for Nokia in Q4? Highly doubt it.
Now it seems that most smartphone purchases in the developed world are replacement purchases.. no reason to change the platform.

observer

Well done MS, it looks like an MS mobile operating system is FINALLY comparable with Symbian. It only took you 12 years and billions of dollars, you sure showed those upstart brits who the f****** daddy is!

being sarcastic in case you missed it :)

Whatever happened to msmobiles?

CN

Maybe you Tomi fix this tiny mistake, just to avoid unnecessary debates.

"...so we want the last month of Q2, June, which is also the last full month before Microsoft Osborned the Nokia Lumia series, crashing their sales."

You must refer to the announcement of June 20, right? In which case June is not the last full month.

zlutor

@Tomi: how long this strategic renewal/turnaround - or agony, whatever you name it - could last? What solution do you see if any?

Jack1059

The ceo and the board simply cant be this stupid. To ride a company into the ground, destroy its share price, gut its marketshare and turn it into a money losing proposition. All this and no one does anything to change course? There has to be something going on in the background that we cant see. No combo of ceo / board can be this stupid for this length of time.

ejvictor

I just love the fact that NO ONE has played with a WP8 phone yet and everyone pronounces it GREAT! The SDK for Windows 8 Phone is not available in G.A. - so developers can't port existing apps... not a single product launch by any WP8 OEM has allowed public to touch or play with devices. Poor Nokia, can't wait for Jolla to showcase a device.

zlutor

@Jack1059 - what if it is not stupidity at all?

Known fact that big investors of Nokia and M$ are quite common. Thus they have no other choice but forcing Nokia to go this road (to have M$ any chance in mobile OS domain) - whatever it cost. Desktop dominance of M$ is loosing relevance, they have to have signiffican footprint in mobile OS domain otherwise they are over.
Not now but in 10-15 years...

Unfortunatelly Nokia was the leader when they entered this battle. If they selected Samsung then our Korean would be in the deep s#it now and nokia would rocket its sales... :-(

At least I see it so. But I'm not the expert here... :-)

vasras

ejvictor : "I just love the fact that NO ONE has played with a WP8 phone yet and everyone pronounces it GREAT!"

MS knows how to employ PR agents and astroturfing carpet-bombers.

Let's see what it will be like when it ships. It has so many changes and it has been so buggy (rumors) that I doubt it will convince the digerati.

But perhaps with WP 8.1 in 2013 :D

Luca

Dear Tomi,
Thanks for the nice article, i would like to know more about the references you did about the carriers relationship importance, could you post the links to blog articles talking about apple carriers relations in 2007, and motorola you mentioned in the article?
Thank you very much for your helpful insights.
Bye
Luca

Luca

P.s. What about asha line? Do they count as smartphones? Unlikely to lumias, i saw many asha phones in the hands of teenagers.

vladkr

Windows Phone strategy cost a lot... but let's be as optimistic as Stephen Elop and Nokia's board who really think (officially) they will succeed.

How many years will be needed for a return on investment?

S.E. keeps on saying he did the right choice? His mistakes already cost several dozens of billions euros. How can he justify it was the right choice?

Why is he still paid millions/year instead of being paid according to company results (like Steve Jobs for example)?

P.S. Nokia promotes its Lumia 920 quite aggressively, saying it's far better than the competition in picture taking. What guaranties do we have final products will be as good as the prototypes?
Before the N9 was released, the prototype was said to have exceptional radio qualities, thanks to its design. The final product's radio performances are... average.

vladkr

Elop sold Nokia's IP-TV to Accenture... he's right, IP TV has certainly no future...

Every time I consider him as stupid, he makes something even more stupid.

"If NASA can send monkeys to space, why don't they send Stephen Elop there ?"

CN

@vladkr

It was NSN's business, not Nokia's. You need to understand how NSN is mostly an independent unit and how NSN has nowadays clear focus on what it intends to be. You need to understand what is the IPTV SW solution of NSN and selling this one plays no role in Nokia's success in whatever IPTV will or will not be in the telecomms arena. If IPTV will fly, you don't need the solution be provided by NSN.

chainsmoker

Hi Tomi,

Out of these summed (wp7 + wm) values in the kantar june data,
how do you calculate the average of 6.9?

gb: 4.1
ger: 6.8
fr: 2.7
italy: 6.2
sp: 1.9

At least in the written report Kantar had not calculated any "EU5" value for this june report.
If you weight an average value with population, you have ca. 4.6.

I.e. less than in september.

Tomi T Ahonen

Thanks chainsmoker,

I corrected the math, you are right, I took the wrong number from my table, the weighted EU5 average number should have been 4.6 not 6.9. Now the story is updated and corrected - am thanking you for spotting the math error.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

concerned citizen

Apple was making killing in the market in the last weeks of September thus in my opinion the figures for iOS and high end smartphones overall will be significantly different even for Q3 and totally different for Q4. What is your analysis of the iPhone 5 impact and also the Galaxy S3 sales still going strong to Q3 and Q4?

vladkr

@CN:
Maybe to you NSN is "mostly" an independent unit (that's not the definition of a JV I have), but still half of revenues it generates goes to Nokia's pocket, and cash is something Nokia needs more and more.

I know with Baron you're a great fan of the management carnage Nokia is facing, but I don't see anything good in this sale (and neither do many financial analysts). At the first sight, it may be cool as it provides Nokia with easy cash, but on the long term it's another nail on Nokia's coffin.

But you may be right, these guys know what they're doing... as their "huge" proved these recent years.

m

Luca,

Nokia has begun calling the Asha line "smartphones" for marketing purposes. I wouldn't doubt that they'd group them in with their smartphone division in the earnings releases, to soften the pain of Lumia deficits. In the past few quarters, Elop has been doing all he can to make his WP plan sound like it's still breathing, including hiding costs specific to Lumia, and I expect that to continue.

Spawn

@vladkr

> "If NASA can send monkeys to space, why don't they send Stephen Elop there ?"

Because unlike the Nokia BOD the NASA has a clue and knows that Elop burning the space so noone can go there in future would not be in best human interest.

CN

@vladkr

Or maybe I just know a little bit more what this IPTV is about in this case.. ? ;-)

17 employees to Accenture, 23 to Belgacom. Peanuts compared with what NSN has done recently. And if you haven't seen the actions in their focusing plans - and how they indeed walk the talk changing their strategy - please find out. It's mostly there in the public.

And again, no point taking Nokia into this discussion. There are loads of solutions from variety of infra suppliers and if IPTV eventually flies, Nokia will enjoy it - no matter whose infra is delivering the service. And in terms of revenues through NSN sales, should NSN be the supplier of IPTV solution? Not worth a lengthy discussion.

P.S. NSN revenues. Positive cash flow is of course nice, but the fact is that NSN has always been a loss making unit. Don't let non-IFRS numbers confuse you.

Earendil Star

Apparently, MS is doubting more and more that Nokia will make it...

http://www.wpcentral.com/microsoft-does-indeed-have-their-own-windows-phone

By the way, look at how happy Ballmer and THT Elop look together.

Most likely outcome: Nokia bleeds what remains to MS & friends (Maps & IP are already gone, probably the smartphone unit for Surface Phones), the rest will be scrapped. THT Elop will flock to some new MS venture... no, not in phones, his name there is now anthema...

Bye bye Nokia!

And no regulator moved a finger. Compliments!

Sander van der Wal

Nokia has been loosing maker share starting with the introduction of iPhone and Android. Why not add that loss to the computations being made here? Nokia's market share was much higher than 38%, and all those customers were lost well before Elop. You can blame him for not being able to turn around Nokia, but blaming him for being the sole source of Nokia's misery is not fair.

Earendil Star

@ Sander,

we know, more than two years now with THT Elop at the helm, but the blame still lies all on those who preceded him.

Whatever.

elm70

What is the point to speak and look at symbian market share

If we take out Nokia 808, an extremely expensive phone without any telecom subsidies ...

The latest Nokia symbian is Nokia 603, that is over 1 year old

Nokia not only announced the death of symbian, saying that accenture is in charge for OS R&D, for then update the message that they expect maintenance till 2016 ... but it is looking that Nokia has totally abandon Symbian, no new Nokia Symbian is expected ... and how can you think to have any decent market selling models that are 1 o 2 years old, as well, they even don't shape down the prices ... Nokia 603 still cost over 150 euros ... a lot for a middle class phone that is over 1y old

For me is already incredible that in q2 nokia sold 6m symbian, 50% more then lumia ... with nokia symbian over 1y old, and Lumia fresh from r&d ...

Tchuss

E_lm_70

vladkr

Selling family jewels is never a good thing.

Alcatel, Ericsson and Huawei are profitable companies, so could NSN if it was well managed (but I agree it's more complicated than selling patents, departments...) .

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