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October 17, 2012

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Comments

Steven Hoober

Nothing follows. Pressed Publish too soon?

steve epstein

If Obama had the political influence and skills of LBJ,
to coerce Dem. leaders, your theory would be very powerful.

I agree that Obama is very likely to win Ohio and Virginia.
Florida remains mystifying since it is 4 political regions internally. Liberal southern tip and conservative pan handle.

The NYT reported that Obama felt he won Debate 1.
Not until 20 minutes later, did he ditch a group of reporters based on pundits left and right pummeling his performance.

Chicago spent a frantic week trying to mollify its base.

And they were worried about Biden's turn in a new way after debate 1.

Also..you forgot the Census and redistricting.
Many Dems had to fight other seat holders in new drawn districts...many very purple though not Red.

stoli89

I think the Census redistricting/Gerrymandering by the Republicans is a big problem for the Democrats and will remain a key issue for many election cycles. I also think the concerted and well organized voter suppression efforts by Republicans in the swing states is still a big issue, even with recent anti-suppression decisions by the courts, because the Republicans are benefiting from voter confusion on rules this close to the election. In OH and PA the Republicans have used every trick in the book, from keeping official voice messaging on voting requirements inaccurate and in conflict to recent court rulings, to using their Republican Secretaries of State to side along party lines in favor of voter suppression tactics in Democratic districts.

The sad truth is that the Carter Center doesn't need to travel very far to find ample election monitoring gigs. IMHO, the US is now the new third world when it comes to fair elections.

Daniel Perry

A fascinating analysis, Tomi. I suspected that Obama, who has such skill in interacting with just plain folks on the campaign trail, was not caught flat-flooted in the first debate. I simply thought that he was being careful not to be drawn into personal attacks. Of course, knowing that he is going to unleash an onslaught of highly charged negative TV spots means that he can afford for Romney to "have his day," because the undecided will forget all about Romney's bump.

And Obama must have realized that the "journalist-pundits" would themselves micro-analyze Romney's misstatements without Obama having to sling mud. Near genius! Thanks for your great perspective!

KPOM

You are way overthinking this, Tomi. Had Obama performed as well in Debate 1 as he did in Debate 2, he could have mailed it in the rest of the campaign. Now he's in a dogfight. He may still pull it out, but it looks to be a squeaker. Also, despite the instant polls, it is interesting that both the focus group on Fox and MSNBC leaned toward Romney after yesterday, and the polls, while giving Obama the technical "win" seemed to favor Romney on the important issues.

Also, Obama very much so played politics with his foreign policy. He's passive aggressive, rather presumptuously decrying the GOP for playing politics with Libya while never ceasing to remind people that "GM is alive, Bin Laden is dead" and how he "sees the coffins" as they arrive home from Afghanistan, which he has managed to turn into a quagmire when he had ample opportunities to cut and run.

I'm guessing Obama felt he was in a stronger position than Bush was in 2004, and that things worked out well for Bush. However, he stumbled so badly in the first debate that he managed to fall behind in mid-October, which Bush did not do. That's dangerous for a president seeking re-election.

KPOM

@stoli89, both parties do gerrymandering. Look at Illinois, which is solidly Democratic, and managed to gerrymander 4 GOP incumbents into districts with fellow Republican congressmen. It may yet backfire on the Democrats as they may not pick up the seats they were hopig to.

Plus, it seems to me that Europe is the continent that is battling with inconclusive elections and endless unrest, as well as unelected bureaucrats in Brussels imposing their will on the continent. Say what you want about American elections, but in general our system of checks and balances is still working well after more than 200 years. For all the talk about the influence of money, neither candidate seems to be having any trouble getting his message out, and it may be the old fashioned debates, rather than Obama's $1 billion+ in campaign contributions that turns the tide.


Winter

Nothing like a good conspiracy to start the day.

What people would do for some billions (trillions?) of dollars and the most powerful position in the world? Such a conspiracy would be well inside the possibilities.

But what has mystified me most is not that people schemed for such a position, but that they schemed to badly. That is what puts me off most conspiracy theories: In reality, people bungle these things routinely.

Or at least they let me think they bungle it ;-)

Olavi

How is it classy to go outside the rules of debate and run over time and shout down the moderator? That looks like a loss.

About the venue, that has not been mentioned that Denver is just over 1.5 km over sea level. That is high enough that anyone that hasn't taken a few days to adjust becomes severely fatigued by strenuous activities like breathing. Romney had a few days to adjust, Obama just flew in. He looked tired.

Afewgoodmen

Great, Tomi. This was a good read. A true conspiracy theory with a rush of truth!

Nice one, Boss!

Decade

What pisses me off about the election coverage is how *certain* people get classified as Not Serious from the beginning. I'm referring to Ron Paul.

And so, in the early primaries, you had silliness like Ron Paul getting third place, Newt Gingrich getting fourth place, and then news reports saying "Other" got third place. I'm never going to vote for Gingrich, so I found him to be less serious than Ron Paul.

Decade

McCain was actually a pretty poor candidate with respect to the economy. After all, he was one of the people involved in the Keating scandal back in the 1980s.

More recently, McCain was involved in campaign finance reform, the results of which were recently mocked so thoroughly by Stewart and Colbert.

As for the campaign strategy? I wouldn't put it past them. The Chicago group is one of the best campaign groups in existence. I'm sure they also remember Reagan's reelection, how he bombed his first speech but came back for the remainder.

Tom Stanley

Great analysis. But don't underestimate the pressures of Obama. Israel has threatened to kill him, which is serious stuff. They gave him the message in more than one way (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/24/andrew-adler-atlanta-jewish-times-obama_n_1228538.html)

He and Romney are salespeople for the agenda of their wealthly overlords (Rothschilds candidate Obama vs. Rockefeller candidate Romney). Now there's the real conspiracy for you.

denmike

For a Finish bloke you talk a lot ;-)
Interesting train of thoughts, though!

Winter

@Tom Stanley
"Israel has threatened to kill him, which is serious stuff."

There might be people in Israel who contemplate or even plan to kill the president of the USA. There seem to be such people in other parts of the world too.

However, conspirators in Israel would most certainly not advertize their plans, ie, they would not threaten Obama. I would think that the fate of Afghanistan and the Taliban have shown what happens to countries that succeed in attacks on US soil. If there really were people in Israel that have plans to kill Obama, they would do so in the uttermost secrecy.

wholesale isabufei

Wow, excellent tools dude. I had no idea so many tools were actually available.

naked girls

Wow, what an awesome resource, great post. I'm with General Sentiment.

Sri

I am with you on this one Tomi. I am not sure about the plan being hatched all the way back in August, but as the Republican sentiment started nosediving in early October and there was possibility of money shifting to down ballots, I think the Obama campaign strategically wanted a tie (which would mean a victory to Romney) in the first debate; or at worse, a 55% to 45% type win for Romney. Where they erred was the lasting jump in positive perception of Romney by voters.
Of course it doesn't matter in the end since Obama will still win the toss up states as you mentioned. And looking at the unfolding strategy, Obama is going to go after Romney full throttle over the next few weeks reinforcing the doubts that are still there at the back of the mind of middle of the center voters currently in Romney's column.
Good Analysis overall.

Wayne Borean


@STOLL89, @KPOM,

The American political system has been corrupted. That doesn't mean that there aren't good men and women involved, there are, I meet a number of them when I was handling Major Account Sales for a company, and attended a lot of meeting for a couple of large NHOs in Washington.

You've got some fantastically talented and able politicians, in a system that won't allow them to act. It's horribly sad.

As to Tomi's post, it matches all the facts, so he might be correct. And this is Chicago Machine politics we are talking about, so there's no doubt that they'd be capable of doing anything to win.

Wayne

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V-pills Yorumlar

Cool analysis. But don't underestimate the pressures of Obama. Israel has threatened to kill him, which is serious stuff!

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