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October 18, 2012

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vladest

"WAS THIS CATASTROPHY FORE-SEEABLE?" sure

Tom Gorr

At the same time, Elop is telling that Nokia is again operationally profitable ;)

And finns buy the stocks like crazy. Sigh.

Afrim

Nokia is done. Tomi, by when do you think Nokia will go bankrupt staying in this course? I think there is a conspiracy to this distruction, noone with a right mind would allow this to happen. Nokia was doing so good with Meego and then they abandon it before they even start it. I think the Illuminati did not want Meego, an open source OS they can't control in the hands of some Finns they can't control who are not part of the European Soviet Union.

Operational

Symbian's ASP would have been under 100€ by now if nothing was done.

elm70

UNBELIEVABLE ...

Even this Q, with Nokia Symbian which the latest mass market model is the Nokia 603 over 1 year old.

Even this Q, Nokia Symbian did over performed then the fresh, new , ultra advertised Nokia Lumia ... incredible.

2.9M of Lumia in the Q3 ... not even Tomi could have predicted a colossal eFlop in Q3

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Thanks eFlop ... now Nokia sell less then 1b of smartphone per quarter ... incredible how fast he did destroy a company !!!

cycnus

I was wondering how the feature phone sales were. Is it also down because of the devalue of nokia brand, or still strong?

qrant

Is there any way to know or guess how many N9 were sold in this quarter? The fact that Symbian still outsells the Lumia line is proof that Nokia should have put more effort in the 808 marketing.

TimoT

Ship that Canadian turd back to Canada! Where he can sell timber and moose meat to Americans, like the rest of Canadians. Canadians are mostly arrogant, busybody managers, who think they know and do everything better than the rest of us, but in reality f*ck everything up.

Winter

"... and everyone said I was being too pessimistic again. Yeah. But I know this industry..."

You have seen the Microsoft "revolution" from the beginning (as I did). You must know by now that you cannot be too pessimistic when Microsoft is involved. Or too paranoid for that matter.

Jaakko Levola

This is so embarrassing for Stephen Elop. Nokia money still comes from Symbian phones...
What is the platform that's on fire, Elop?

Operational

@Jaakko Levola

Nokia barely gets aby real money from Symbian. Most of the Symbian handsets are very low end and the 808 sells only small amounts.

TimoT

As usual, Nokia board is as clueless as a 18 year old virgin in a German swinger gang bang. Letting the CEO totally "elop" the company. I suggest a new word in English for complete and speedy destruction of a company by bad management, elopping.

tired

Spent a little time going over the discussions at Nokia and wp dev forums a little after 2nd February 2011. Interesting reading. Most of the devs as well as Maemo.org forum members predicted a severe backlash from Nokia customers as well as market share drop. But no one expected performance this bad! Not to mention Tomi tearing elop a new one with his accurate predictions.

@Tomi
If I were you, I'd be gloating right now.

zlutor

@Tomi: Ashas are referred as 'smartphones' - even by Elop :-) - and calculated still into the feature phones. How is it then?

BTW. Where are the naysayers requiring selling the good, old NSN?! It is the second consecutive quarter when it saves Nokia's ass. And it will be better and better! ;-)

foo

If you think in terms of cumulative losses (or profit) you get an interesting picture:

http://oi50.tinypic.com/n14ga8.jpg

All the numbers are trailing 12-month totals, and shows that Elop inherited a company that was recovering.

The chart ends at Q2/2012, with a cumulative loss of 3.479 billion euros.

Now, if we extend the chart with Q3/2012 data, it will get even worse, because we replace the small 68M loss of Q3/2011 with a huge loss of 969M in Q3/2012. So, the trailing 12-month total loss goes to 4.38 billion.

The Grand Sermon

Ashas to Ashes, Dust to dust

In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground; for out of it wast thou taken: for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt NOKIA return.

AMEN!

Human Behavior Psychology

With the many blogs which I have encountered, I never expected to see a very beautiful post online..After reading this one, I felt so lucky to see its content....

Patriot

This Canadian lunatic should be sent Utsjoki without shoes.

Mark Wilcox

@Operational - trying reading the results before commenting. Symbian ASP was 151 EUR (according to simple calculation from average - Lumia, confirmed by Aysmco) with zero marketing and only the one new product in a year. Also, Symbian revenues are still above Lumia revenues in the same circumstances. This doesn't say a lot for Symbian however, just how incredibly badly WP is doing.

I

He Not only swiped away an era from Finland, but snatched breads of more than 45,000 direct employees and a huge no. of indirect employees.
He is a mass murderer and the worst guy in a managerial position ever. He doesnt deserve to be a sales guy too, CEO is far apart.

Those who do not know, he recently tried to show up the Nokia shares by buying huge amount of Nokia shares himself and his management team.

Bye Bye Nokia, we really loved you.. and I had enjoyed my 5 years working with you.

Mark

@Operational

You wrote: Nokia barely gets aby real money from Symbian. Most of the Symbian handsets are very low end and the 808 sells only small amounts.

Can't see how that is true, as Nokia smartphone ASP is EUR 155 and Symbian ASP is 151 EUR.

Giacomo Di Giacomo

Looks like my personal forecast of 1 May was accurate then... :-) http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/are-we-ready-for-the-numbers-nokia-smartphone-market-share-projection-2012-ends-year-at-3.html

harri

Finnish Verkkokauppa.com Top 10 list of phones sold: http://t.co/BI83lX8o

Even in Finland no one is buying Nokia. Game over, man.

stoli89

Curiously, Nokia's Revenue and EPS beat market expectations and its cash position has marginally improved. With NSN having returned to profitability and being prepped for sale, the turn in this turnaround is becoming clear. I also think Q4 will be a bloody one in terms of smartphone results simply because the WP8 product line will have only entered the picture after a third of the quarter has expired and Symbian sales will have hit near nadir. Legacy WP7 products are only getting residual action at this point, given the near term release of WP8, so there is a substantial vacuum left for Q4. Nevertheless, Q4 will also likely see the final big write-downs and, as well, signal the initial results for the 920/820 line in some key markets (e.g.: USA, FR, RU, IT, DE).

If WP8 proves marginally successful, the stock has good upside. If WP is able to enter the double digit marketshare territory by end 2013, then the upside will be substantial. I'm long.

Mark Wilcox

@stoll89 - by "its cash position has marginally improved" do you mean that they just lost less money this quarter than last? Net cash was down by another several hundred million again.

What's so different about WP8 vs WP7.5 that you think there's any chance of double digit marketshare by the end of next year?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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