Smartphone Market Shares Q2 Full Numbers - Samsung and Android solidifying their leads

Time to do Q2 total numbers update to the Smartphone Bloodbath Year 3: Digital Jamboree. How are the market shares. As always, I take the total quarter shipment/sales number of the four big analyst houses (Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics and Canalys) and use the average of their numbers, to get the total number for this quarter - which is 153.0 million units for Q2 (up 4% from Q1, meaning the industry is currently on track to sell 695 million smartphones this year, up 43% from last year). Here is the blog of Q1 numbers if you want to go back to see.

Then I take all official data as published by those smartphone makers who give out their numbers, and after that, I use other public sources, my internal data sources, and use various estimates and calculations to fit reported data and historical information, within the limits of the total market size, to calculate my estimate of the remaining data points. When later data is revealed, I am proven consistently to be very accurate by this method..

That gives us the official TomiAhonen Consulting market share calculation, which on this site, is as has always been, the most thorough and largest free source of smartphone market shares you can find anywhere (and we have no advertising, there is no registration for the blog, and I don't collect your visitor data etc, how weird is that?) This is all part of the service here at TomiAhonen Consulting. I also give a quarterly update for each major smartphone brand and platform, including 'school grades' on how they are doing in the Bloodbath battle. So lets get to the big numbers.

TEN BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q2 2012

Rank . Maker . . . . . . Units . . . Market Share . . . . Was in Q1 of 2012
1 . . . . Samsung  . . . 50.4 M . . 32.9 % . . . . . . . . ( 30.6 %)
2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . 26.0 M . . 17.0 % . . . . . . . . ( 24.2 %)
3 . . . . Nokia . . . . . . 10.2 M . . . 6.7 % . . . . . . . . (   8.2 %)
4 . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 8.8 M . . . 5.8 % . . . . . . . . (   5.4 %)
5 . . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . 8.0 M . . . 5.2 % . . . . . . . . (   3.4 %)
6 . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 7.8 M . . . 5.1 % . . . . . . . . (   7.6 %)
7 . . . . Sony . . . . . . .  7.5 M . . . 4.9 % . . . . . . . . (  5.0 %)
8 . . . . Huawei  . . . . .  7.0 M . . . 4.6 % . . . . . . . . (  4.8 %)
9 . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 6.5 M . . . 4.2 % . . . . . . . . (  3.8 %)
10 . . . Motorola . . . . . 6.0 M . . . 3.9 % . . . . . . . . (  3.5 %)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 M . . . 7.3 % . . . . . . . . (  3.3 %)
TOTAL  . . . . . . . . . 153.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Some quick comments. Wow, Samsung is now almost twice as big as number 2 (Apple) which is more than twice as big as number 3 (Nokia). The world has completely flipped from what it was like just 18 months ago, when Nokia was more than twice the size of Apple which was twice as big as Samsung. Samsung 'is' the New Nokia. And Samsung hits another unprecedented milestone this quarter, becoming the first ever smartphone maker to sell 50 million units in a single quarter.

And Nokia's decline continues the fastest fall ever witnessed in the mobile handset industry and across all Fortune 500 sized giant corporations, the Nokia fall from grace is the world record destruction of the previous global market leading brand. And what is the path that Nokia follows? Check out Motorola. It has now fallen to 10th place. Other interesting position switches RIM has now fallen out of the Top 5 (replaced by Chinese ZTE which is experiencing very strong growth globally, similar to how Samsung was doing in smartphones about a year or two ago). Ok. Then lets look at the operating system table:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q2 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . Units . . . . . Market share  . . Was in Q1 of 2012
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . . . 102.4 M . . . . 66.9 % . . . . . . . ( 55.6 %)
2 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.0 M . . . . 17.0 % . . . . . . . ( 24.2 %)
3 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . . . 7.8 M . . . . . 5.1 % . . . . . . . (  7.6 %)
4 . . . . Symbian  . . . . . . . . . 5.0 M . . . . . 3.3 % . . . . . . . (  5.4 %) 
5 . . . . Windows Phone . . . . 4.6 M . . . . . 3.0 % . . . . . . . (   1.6 %)
6 . . . . bada  . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 M . . . . . 2.7 % . . . . . . . (   2.6 %)
7 . . . . MeeGo . . . . . . . . . .  1.2 M . . . . . 0.8 % . . . . . . . (   1.5 %)
8 . . . . Windows Mobile . . . . 0.3 M . . . . . 0.2 % . . . . . . . (   0.3 %)
others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.6 M . . . . . 1.0 % . . . . . . . (   1.1 %)
TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153.0 M
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So Android solidifies its lead at the top, becoming the first smartphone operating system to ship a million smartphones per day over the quarter. The growth rate compared to just 3 months earlier is also staggering, Android has now reached two thirds of all smartphones sold. Apple's iOS is in solid second place with no challengers in sight, but is losing ground as we await the iPhone 5 release. Symbian still holds the sales lead over all Windows Phone sales, but WinPho finally passes bada in single-quarter unit sales, powered by the heavy push by Nokia of its (now obsolete) Lumia line in Q2 powered by the biggest launch marketing budget ever seen in mobile handsets. Windows Mobile is almost vanished. Nokia's MeeGo platform is now in its decline as the CEO pulled the plug on even sales in some of its strongest markets, most of those MeeGo sales that remain are now from China (where new handset maker Jolla a Finland-based start-up out of ex-Nokia staff is promising their first MeeGo based device out before the end of the year, and have secured a reseller deal with China's biggest handset retailer chain). We may see some level of MeeGo resurgence, and trust at least Jolla to release their MeeGo sales numbers officially, that we don't need to dig and beg and calculate estimates of what Nokia may or may not have sold per quarter as the CEO fears MeeGo based devices. Also Q3 will be interesting, as almost all of Windows Phone sales now come from the Nokia Lumia series, which was instantly Osborned by Microsoft when they decided not to allow any current Windows Phone 7.5 OS devices to be upgraded to the new Windows Phone 8. So I am expecting Q3 sales for Lumia - and Windows Phone - to decline. We may see a see-saw battle between bada and Windows Phone to the end of the year and beyond.. (With Samsung and Intel's new smarpthone OS Tizen about to launch before Christmas. Exciting times in new operating systems). Finally, lets look at the installed base, the most relevant table when considering any developers out there who need to think of their platfrom investments in smartphones.

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF Q2 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . . . Units . . . . . Market share  . . Was in Q1 of 2012
1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . . . 427 M . . . . . 41 % . . . . . . . . ( 32 %)
2 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . . 259 M . . . . . 25 % . . . . . . . . ( 30 %)
3 . . . . iOS  . . . . . . . . . . . 198 M . . . . . 19 % . . . . . . . . ( 18 %)
4 . . . . Blackberry  . . . . . . 108 M . . . . . 10 % . . . . . . . . ( 11 %)
5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 M . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . (   2 %)
6 . . . . Windows Phone . . . . 14 M . . . . . 1 % . . . . . . . . (   1 %)
7 . . . . Windows Mobile . . . . 13 M  . . . .  1 % . . . . . . . . (   2 %)
Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 M . . . . .  2 % . . . . . . . . (   3 %)
TOTAL Installed Base . . . 1,059 M smartphones in use at end of Q2 2012
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

So the installed base is relatively stable, understandibly, as we have many years of sales in those numbers, so a spike of success in one platform over another will not immediately shift the global installed base. Yet, we are well into more than 1 Billion smartphones in use worldwide and Android now powers four out of every ten smartphones in use. Symbian is still second at one fourth of all smartphones in use, and Apple is inching towards being inside one in five smartphones in use. Blackberry has fallen to one tenth, and the battle in on for who gets to be the fifth ecosystem bada continues its strong showing (Microsoft's two entrants are ranked sixth and seventh respectively - both with only 1% of the installed base of all smartphones in use globally, thus nowhere near the overhyped 'third ecosystem').

So if you are a developer, thats your world there. Android is obvious. iOS if you develop in the Industrialized World markets, Symbian if you develop for Emerging World markets as your second choice and obviously Blackberry only if you do enterprise apps. Incidentially the smartphone replacement cycle keeps shrinking. The total smartphone installed base was replaced in the past 18 months, meaning the average replacement rate is now 9 months. This is not 'reality' for average consumers due to new sales to first-time buyers and 2 year contract cycles in many markets, but when measuring total installed base, and total sales, ie to get the metrics of total installed base replacement, and average replacement cycle, we get 18 months now, for total installed base replacement sales, and thus an average replacement cycle of 9 months for this industry. Also do remember, this is a mathematical average, those who replace their smartphones twice per year or more often, will cause the mathematical average to be skewed to a higher (faster) number. But yes, compared to say television sets with an average replacement cycle of 7 years or PCs with about 3.5 years, we in mobile, specifically smartphones, have now an average replacement cycle of only 9 months. Amazing!

INDIVIDUAL BRANDS RATED

So then lets look at the players in the Digital Jambore. How did our fave tech brands and providers do in the past three months? Lets proceed like always, in order of size, largest first.

SAMSUNG - 50.4 million smartphones, 32.9% market share, profitable - A
Last 6 quarters market share: 13% - 16% - 21% - 23% - 31% - 33%

South Korean Samsung is doing nothing but good news in smartphones. A steady strong growth rate in total sales and more importantly, also in market share. The company is doing this profitably, this is textbook perfection in execution. We hear of ever more new Android models coming out and bada keeps growing and the new Tizen OS is under way, soon to have its first handsets released.

Here is the split of Samsung smartphone sales by platform for Q2 of 2012:
Android . . . . . . . . . 91%
bada . . . . . . . . . .. . 8%
Windows Phone . . . 1% 
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed 

Samsung is clear top dog now, almost twice as big as its nearest rival in smartphones, Apple. And Samsung is nearly 5 times as big as its long-term rival Nokia, which less than two years ago was four times as big as Samsung in smartphones. Sweet times indeed in Seoul. Samsung earns a solid A

APPLE - 26.0 million smartphones, 17.0% market share, profitable, B-
Last 6 quarters market share 18% - 19% - 14% - 24% - 24% - 17%

Everyone's favorite tech brand, Apple had a surprisingly big drop in its unit sales and market share this Q2 from Q1. Far bigger drop than usual. I explained in my Apple Q2 results blog that this is partly due of course to the one-new-iPhone-per-year release cycle (that Apple has to abandon now, that the average replacement cycle is faster than that, Apple needs at least two new models per year) and that we await the iPhone 5 sometime in September. But the fall was bigger, and partly that was due to the late launch of the iPhone 4S and its exceptionally strong peak sales this past Christmas. The 4S is suffering in particular when compared to the various Galaxy models (Galaxy Note's huge screen perhaps the most) and the Galaxy S3 is getting all the hype right now before the iPhone 5 is announced. If I was Apple, I'd find a way to announce the iPhone 5 as soon as possible, just to cut into those Samsung sales growth numbers, haha..

So, Apple was of course hugely profitable but here in this contest, the amount of profits is irrelevant, huge profits this quarter at the cost of winning the decade-long smartphone OS war, is very shortsighted indeed, better to optimize profit and market share to win the long game. All we want, is for the contender to be profitable in its smarpthone races, excess profits are good news for Wall Street and short-term investors but not meaningful in the Bloodbath, where long term viability is the point. So Apple gets no bonus for its massive profit haul, only that it clearly did good being profitable where many rivals are not. Apple scores a B-, a good but not excellent score. 

NOKIA - 10.2 million smartphones, 6.7% market share, loss-making, F
Last 6 quarters market share 24% - 16% - 14% - 13% - 8% - 7%

Finland's Nokia has established the world record collapse of a global market leader and now with CEO Stephen Elop continuing on his mad Nokia-destruction strategy, the record is only being made worse. We hear that Nokia's Lumia series is so hated, that four out of ten who buy it rate it that bad, they give it a rating of 1 on the scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is best. We hear that the Lumia series has the worst sales success, and biggest return rates Nokia has ever seen. Even after the biggest launch money ever thrown at any handset, and that added with carriers/operators using their biggest launch marketing ever, like AT&T did in the USA, the result is pitiful. Nokia and Microsoft had a combined market share of 34% the previous quarter, when this partnership was announced. Now three quarters into Nokia's Lumia sales, the Windows Phone total sales, Nokia and all other Windows Phone partners, achieved 3% market share in Q2. The total Windows and Nokia partership achieved.. 8% of the global smartphone market, this counting all still existing Symbian and MeeGo Nokia smartphone sales as well (which exceed Windows Phone sales obviously). So Nokia and Microsoft separately were worth more than one third of the total global smartphone market only 18 months ago. Then they announced their partnership, and proceeded to destroy this opportunity. Today they have managed to capture only less than one quarter of that, 8% rather than 34%. Totally pathetic. Oh, and heading to the end of the year? Nokia smartphone market share that now is 6.7% will be down to between 2% and 3%, counting all Lumia/Windows Phone, Symbian and MeeGo sales, combined. Utter total market share disaster, unprecedented speed in self-induced market collapse in history.

And now we hear that all Lumia sales are collapsing due to the Osborning of the Windows Phone 7.5 series. Nokia has lowered its retail price of the Lumia 900 in the USA with two year contract to 19 dollars (from 99 dollars just two months ago). Nokia is throwing 50 Euro vouchers to Nokia Lumia buyers in Germany that can be used in various retail outlets like Ikea.. to try to soften the blow of the damage.

And meanwhile we hear that highly profitable and desirable - indeed award-winning N9 smartphones on MeeGo are having their sales discontinued in many of the early N9 markets. And further, Nokia has totally mismanaged the demand and sales of the 808 PureView which has its demand far exceeding supply. Nokia smartphone unit reports Nokia-record losses (it was reporting Nokia-record profits just before this Windows partnership was announced). Why didn't Nokia management bother to explore the 808 PureView market demand correctly and adjust rapidly for its surprisingly strong demand? This is the most expensive Symbian based smartphone and any missed sales here, are totally lost profits to help cover the huge costs of the losses in the Lumia Windows Phone unit? Because Nokia CEO doesn't want Symbian success, even if that means bigger losses in the smartphone unit.

And what did we just hear this past week? That yes, still today, in 2012, half of Nokia users still prefer QWERTY inputs over touch screens (which only had a third of Nokia owners preferring those). Why oh why oh why, would Nokia release FOUR separate Lumia smarpthones running Windows Phone, all with touch screens, and none with even a slider QWERTY variant, when Nokia invented the QWERTY and has had QWERTY options on its top-end smartphones always, from the original Communicator models to the E7, N900 and N950. This has been known inside Nokia always, yet the CEO refuses to let QWERTY variants of the Lumia smartphones be made. He deliberately is pissing off half of Nokia's loyal customers with these highly undesirable paperweights. Oh, and yes, there were 13 obvious design, marketing and launch faults in the line at launch which doomed the Lumia series as I told you on this blog. Now the actual end-user experience has 101 faults (actually, now with even more Lumia! upgraded to 121 faults!). No wonder this series has failed utterly in its launch and many carriers refused to take any Lumia at all, like Verizon and China Mobile. And now with the Lumia series Osborned, T-Mobile for example in Germany refuses to even launch the Lumia 900.

Here is the split of Nokia smartphones by platform for Q2 of 2012:
Symbian  . . . . . . . . 49%
Windows Phone . . . 39%
MeeGo  . . . . . . . . . 12%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

The rumors have started once again that Nokia may be sold. Lenovo and Samsung are already rumored to be sniffing around and we already heard earlier that Microsoft had actually considered buying Nokia this Spring, but decided against it. We may see the end of this brand soon. But yes, Q2 was miserable for Nokia, but Q3 will be far worse (Standard and Poor's has just downgraded Nokia deeper into the classification of 'junk' - yes two more downgrade notches today!). Yet, how can I score them? Nokia smartphones in Q2 sees crashing sales, collapsing market share and generating huge losses, with no hope in sight. A failing grade of F is all I can come up with, I wish I could give a worse grade to Nokia.

HTC - 8.8 million smartphone sales, market share 5.8%, profitable, B
Last 6 quarter market share - 10% - 11% - 10%- 6% - 5% - 6%

Taiwanese HTC seems to be turning a corner, its sudden big fall has been ended and several well-received smartphones are hitting stores. But somehow HTC can't seem to get the same level of success on the same platform(s) as Samsung, especially obviously Android. Yet it did do good solid growth of 11% in one quarter, twice the growth rate of the industry, and clawed back one point of market share. Hopefully this is now the sign of a growing strong HTC to join in the battle. HTC has passed RIM to take fourth ranking in the big table, so there is plenty to cheer in Taipei. I rate the HTC quarter a solid B.

ZTE - 8.0 Million smartphone sales, market share 5.2%, profitable, A
Last 6 quarters market share 2% - 3% - 3% - 4% - 4% - 5%

China's ZTE is the new Asian smartphone powerhouse. It doesn't get to the top with flashy superphones like the iPhone 4S or Galaxy S3, it does it through the low end of the market, with low-cost smartphones, in the Emerging World markets, but essentially, eating Nokia's remaining market in the low-end of the price pyramid. They have now found optimal price points, feature-sets, and are reaching the resale and carrier relations to sustain the growth, expect ZTE to continue to grow by faster rates than the industry overall. ZTE kicked out RIM out of the Top 5 and are now a major player in the smartphone wars. I grade the ZTE performance in Q2 at a clear A.

RIM - 7.8 Million smartphone sales, market share 5.1%, loss-making - F
Last 6 quarters market share 14% - 12% - 9% - 9% - 8% - 5%

Canadian Reseach in Motion, RIM looked like it had stabilized its situation, almost. Its big fall in market share looked like it had ended, and for Christmas 2011, Blackberries actually saw increasing unit sales (while market share was flat). I did think RIM had managed to turn a corner. It didn't. Now the fall is huge - for once even worse than Nokia - and RIM's market share is now at the level of only one in 20 smartphones sold is a Blackberry. At its peak, RIM sold more than one in five smartphone in the world. RIM has tumbled down in the rankings, falling from a strong 4th place ranking last quarter to out of the top 5 and falling to sixth this quarter, behind both HTC and ZTE. Just two years ago RIM was the world's second largest smartphone maker. So fickle is the Smartphone Bloodbath. The company is reporting big losses and the news about the savior platform, BB 10, is still too far away, the first smartphones to run on BB 10 will not hit sales for Christmas of this year, they will arrive early next year. Will RIM survive until then, nobody knows. There is gossip about the company being sold. How do I grade RIM in Q2 of 2012? This is another F grade, totally failing performance.

SONY - 7.5 Million smartphone unis, 4.9% market share, loss-making, C-
Last 6 quarters market share 5% - 5% - 6% - 6% - 5% - 5%

Japan's Sony is still in the process of taking full control of its past partnership with Ericsson. The unit is still not profitable but it did grow sales about at the rate of the industry and kept its market share. There is nothing astonishing on the horizon but solid Sony marketing efforts to roll out great devices for the Christmas season. I am still expecting a big Playstation Portable compatible Sony Android smartphone, it could be a hit product of the season. The performance this Q2, not good as it is loss-making but holding steady, I grade it a C-

HUAWEI - 7.0 Million unit sales, market share of 4.6%, profitable, C
Last 6 quarters market share 3% - 4% - 5% - 5% - 5% - 5%

Chinese Huawei had the typical Chinese new year sales bounce in Q1, but its sales into Q2 was flat, causing a small drop in market share. The company is aiming at higher price points than ZTE and feeling more of the squeeze. I give them a C grade.

LG - 6.5 Million smartphone sales, 4.2% market share, profitable, B
Last 6 quarters market share  5% - 5% - 5% - 5% - 4% - 4%

South Korean LG is slowly picking up steam. It actually grew sales faster than the industry this past quarter and does this profitably, giving it a good B grade.

MOTOROLA (GOOGLE) - 6 Million sales, 3.9% market share, loss-making - D+
Last 6 quarters market share 4% - 4% - 4% - 3% - 4% - 4%

Google's new acquisition, Motorola grew sales and picked up some market share but is still highly unprofitable. Google just announced massive layoffs to cure some of that excess fat they still have. Moto has tumbled now to 10th ranking in the Top 10, but as they now are growing faster than the industry, they can probably still remain in the Top 10 for the near future. For valiant growth efforts, some accolades but unprofitable business is not sustainable business. Thus I grade Moto a D+

Thats the Top 10 right there. Now lets turn to look at the operating system platforms, by size.

OPERATING SYSTEMS BY SIZE

ANDROID - 102.4 million smartphones, 66.9% market share, A
Last 6 quarters market share 32% - 40% - 47% - 49% - 56% - 67%

Google's Android now powers two out of every three smartphones sold worldwide. They are running away also with the installed base globally powering now 4 out of every 10 smartphones in use. In this past quarter, Android smartphones outsold the number 2 platfrom - Apple's iOS - by almost 4 to 1 !!!  This is the obvious global platform and if Google manages to continue to sell two out of every three smartphones, the Android OS will grow to exceed the total PC based Windows installed base as early as Q1 of 2014 !!! (And this is ignoring any Android based tablets or other devices). No wonder Microsoft is utterly panicking about their smartphone strategy, Windows 8 etc. Yes, you heard it here first, mark your calendars, in early 2014, less than two years from now, Android installed base will exceed total Windows installed base, PCs and smartphones and tablets, all counted together. Is Google's world domination plan working? I'd say yes.. As to the Q2 performance, this strong growth is a clear A for Android.

iOS - 26 Million smartphones, 17.0% market share, B-
Last 6 quarters market share 18% - 19% - 14% - 24% - 24% - 17%

Not much to add to the above. Apple is settling to that one fifth share globally and its installed base is also approaching that level now at already 19%. Until we see the next iPhone 5, this is a good but not excellent quarter for Cupertino, I say B-

BLACKBERRY - 7.8 Million smartphones, 5.1% market share, F
Last 6 quarters market share 14% - 12% - 9% - 9% - 8% - 5%

Blackberry has fallen off The Cliff, and is now in free-fall. The BB 10 is likely to come too late to save the company. I grade this Quarter an F.

SYMBIAN - 5.0 Million smartphones, 3.3% market share, F
Last 6 quarters market share: 26% - 17% - 15% - 11% - 5% - 3%

Can you imagine what we have witnessed? Two years ago Symbian was the world's bestselling smartphone OS, growing strongly (growing more than Apple's iPhone for example, for year 2010) and then we have seen the global collapse. Just 18 months ago, Symbian powered one out of every four smartphones sold worldwide. Today its market share has fallen to 3%. In just 18 months, Symbian went from 26% to 3%, losing literally nine out of every ten customers it had (and only managing to convert one of the lost customers to the new Windows Phone OS, effectively gifting the remaining eight loyal Nokia Symbian smartphone users to Android or iOS or bada). This is world record destruction of a global market leader. It was all self-induced and unnecessary, as Symbian based smarpthones were highly profitable at the time for everyone from Nokia to Fujitsu, Sharp, Panasonic, Samsung etc. Its like Coca Cola suddenly looking at its dominating world position, and abandoning the magic formula and deciding to use Red Bull intead... Madness. Oh, and this is the first quarter that the non-Nokia sales of Symbian were so tiny, they don't move the needle anymore. So now, for the first time ever, we can truly say Symbian = Nokia.

Anyway, take good notes and pay attention to the total destruction of Nokia and Symbian, this is a world record in corporate destruction we are witnessing and Stephen Elop will go down in history as the worst CEO ever of any company - in any industry - of all time. He will be the laughing stock in MBA case studies, where students will time and again wonder how stupid can one CEO be. Meanwhile Symbian in Q2, even as Nokia failed to capitalize on highly desirable 808 PureView sales opportunities, I grade Symbian an F.

WINDOWS PHONE - 4.6 Million smartphones, 3.0% market share, B
Last 6 Quarters market share: 2% - 1% - 1% - 1% - 2% - 3%

If Windows Phone actual market performance was 'pure' and 'honest' in the past three quarters, then yes, growing market share from 1% to 2% to 3% in three consecutive quarters would be a good sign. Except it was done with Microsoftian smoke and mirrors. The sales 'growth' was achieved by murdering two giant platforms as pure cannon fodder, to achieve this modest gain. That was Windows Mobile (which is not compatible with Windows Phone) and Symbian. Look at the situation just a year ago, Windows Mobile was still safely outselling all Windows Phone. The combined market share of Windows Mobile, Windows Phone and Symbian was.. 19% ! Today, their combined market share is 6%. So this supposed 'gain' to Windows Phone, was done by the wholesale sacrifice of 'partner' platforms, and still done so weakly, that two out of every three customers walked away from the proposition - to rival smartphone platforms (Android, iOS and bada). So that 'gain' to Windows Phone is marketing bullsh*t and a cruel gutting of in particular Nokia's previously superb market position. But we don't judge the OS by its past history, I only note it here so you don't mis-analyze this supposed 'growth'. When I judge Windows Phone in isolation of the brothers killed to get this growth, yes, Windows Phone did grow faster than the industry this past quarter, and achieved a market share of 3%. Note, that this is very likely a peak for Windows Phone, as its market share is sure to fall into Q3 as the whole Lumia line from Nokia is now Osborned, and almost all other Windows Phone partners have already abandoned the platform. But for Q2, I give Microsoft's Windows Phone a grade of B.

BADA - 4.1 Million smartphones, market share of 3%, B
Last 6 quarters market share - 1% - 2% - 2% - 2% - 3% - 3%

Where Microsoft's growth was achieved by murder of Symbian and Windows Mobile, the bada steady growth is organic and real. It is mostly seen in Emerging World markets but it is steady growth by Samsung. The installed base of bada is now closing in on 20 million cumulative shipments which I expect Samsung to announce sometime soon. bada is the undisputed 'Fifth Ecosystem' in smartphones today by installed base, and while it briefly fell to 6th ranking in new sales in Q2, I expect that to be corrected again into Q3 as the Windows Phone sales are collapsing now. I grade Samsung's bada at a solid B

MEEGO - 1.2 Million smartphones, 0.8% market share, C 
Last 6 quarters market share n/a - n/a - n/a - 1% - 2% - 1% 

MeeGo was almost destroyed and to be forgotten, were it not for a lifeboat to the burning platform, called Jolla (Jolla means 'dinghy' or small boat in Finnish). Jolla is a start-up by ex-Nokia MeeGo and Maemo staff, with strong smartphone experience. They will be launching their first MeeGo based smartphone for Christmas and we can see new sales into the MeeGo platform from the Jolla folks. But as the Nokia-powered peak of MeeGo sales was passed in Q1 and now remaining N9 sales are winding down, we can't grade MeeGo for better than a C.

Thats the big platforms right there. Windows Mobile not really worth mentioning anymore, I will stop reporting on it next quarter. 

FEW OTHER SMARTPHONE STATS

Android Split by Manufacturers for Q2 of 2012:
Samsung 45%
HTC 8%
ZTE 8%
Sony 7%
Huawei 7%
LG 6%
Motorola 6%
Others 13%
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

Windows Phone split by Manufacturers for Q2 of 2012
Nokia 87%
Samsung 9%
HTC 4%
Note: The above table is only for Windows Phone OS, it does not include the incompatible Windows Mobile smartphone sales which counted for about 300,000 units only remaining sales in Q2 of 2012
Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates August 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources
This table may be freely distributed

There you go, another quarter done in the Smartphones Bloodbath we have now witnessed for two and a half years. And as I have been warning the excitement of this battle is coming to a close. Android has an unassailable lead in operating systems and very nearly so too has Samsung now in the smartphone handsets.

Incidentially, I am foreseeing the end of Bloodbath towards the last quarter of this year 3, the Digital Jamboree, and I anticipate less intense reporting on this area of the mobile industry into next year, just so you followers and readers know. It hardly makes sense to report on the tiny minnows of this industry where a Windows Phone 8 with perhaps 2% market share is 'battling it out' against Tizen and bada and MeeGo for the glory of who gets to call themselves the fifth ecosystem haha.. The big battle is now already clearly decided, the winners are Samsung and Apple in handsets, and Android and iOS is operating systems.

Three years ago when I announced this stage of the smartphones war to become very intense (who else knew it would get this bloody, year 2009 had been stable as anything haha) that I labeled the start of year 2010 to be the Smartphone Bloodbath. But back then I expected these platform wars to run through at least the middle of this decade, perhaps to the end of the decade, much like the gaming platform wars, not like the rapid end of the race like we saw with say, Blueray. Still, unless something truly dramatic happens towards the end of this year, I am expecting our Bloodbath series to come to a natural close around Q4 of 2012 when the two dominant platforms, Android and iPhone will own close to 90% of the market and on the handset side, Samsung and the iPhone will sell six out of every ten smartphones globally. If that is the case, there will be no point to these blogs anymore..

One Plug - if you are interested in the handset industry stats more deeply than this blog, don't forget my TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012. That volume has over 90 tables and charts of handset industry stats. And now I have a special offer - as the 2012 edition of the Phone Book will be released very soon, I have a special two-for-one offer, get the current edition (2010 Phone Book) and upcoming 2012 edition for the price of only one at the same low price of only 9.99 Euros.You can see the table of contents and ordering info of the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010 edition here.

Comments

[Alex Kerr]

As a developer who wanted to reach literally the most number of phones possible, including those in the developing world, I made a conscious choice to not learn how to develop for iPhone, Android or even Symbian, but instead Java Mobile - the platform abandoned and derided by the rich world developers as unworkable, too difficult and so on.

I made the choice 4 years ago, have continually re-evaluated it in light of Android's growth and other platform growth and popularity changes, and after all that, my choice (for me) has been proven correct.

With Java Mobile I can hit 2 - 3 billion featurephones (or low end smartphones if I am describing them correctly), I can also hit all Symbians (another nearly 300 million), all Blackberries (many more millions) and all Androids (more hundreds of millions). With Java Mobile I am hitting what, 3 - 4 billion phones? The next largest platform hits about one tenth of that!

Java Mobile is not the underpowered, fragmented and hugely difficult platform of yesteryear that is now dying out. On the contrary, it has great tools and SDKs, great APIs that are very full featured, much more stability and much less fragmentation, and great and official user interface and networking libraries with LWUIT (Light Weight User Interface Toolkit).

I recommend it...

[Alex Kerr]

To add to my post above, Oracle have fully recommitted to the future of Java Mobile, with new APIs and full smartphone level capabilities and APIs.

http://www.oracle.com/us/corporate/press/512685

Worth noting...

[AlexSander]

@Alex Kerr
off-topic, but...
do you have any example to show, just out of curiosity

[vladkr]

Nortel, Stephen Elop, RIM, stupid CRTC rules and last-century rates... it seems that Canadian telecoms are cursed.

[ExNokian]

@Mr Eric Wu
I have very openly called Burning Platforms Memo as "communication mistake of the century". On that specific post I simply use publicly available data to show it indeed has done damage, we can measure it and correct scale is 1/7 of what Tomi says. Nothing more.

[RyanZA]

@Alex Kerr

That oracle link is almost a year old.. Is there any more recent news? It feels like JavaME is just about dead at this point.

Luckily most of the skills for java me translate directly over to Android (you just have to learn the extra android lifecycle stuff, etc). All non-UI/lifecycle/hardware code can be just copied across too..

[Sander van der Wal]

@Eric Wu

For the N8 theory to work, one has to show that sales for the other Nokia models were increasing with the market, right until the effects of the memo became visible in the channel.

But it does show that Nokia was unable to develop in a timely matter a new device at a time they were under heavy attack, on a platform they have been using for more than 10 years. That fact in itself is comdemning enough.

And the N8 theory does not explain why MeeGo was dumped too.

Regarding WP7 for the North American market, yes, at first sight that might have worked if MeeGo was ready for prime time.

But consider this, if MeeGo was so much better than WP7, Nokia would have been mad to use an inferior OS for a market they wanted to get into very much indeed.

Conclusion: MeeGo was rubbish at the time and not getting good enough in time. It was even worse than WP7. Which was stated in the BusinessWeek article.

[Asko]

@Sander van der Wal "Conclusion: MeeGo was rubbish at the time and not getting good enough in time. It was even worse than WP7. Which was stated in the BusinessWeek article."

BusinessWeek article was just a cover story to bury MeeGo. Nothing more.

[AlexSander]

@Asko As owner of N9, I can assure you that, yes, MeeGo was unfinished work when N9 was released. Now with the latest software it is still gettin' into trouble sometimes.
So, yes, it was bad (can't say rubbish, it's too harsh), but it (still) has a potential, the ideas was good.
And it's good to know that Jolla will continue The Journey.

[Asko]

@AlexSander

I also have N9 and lived through all the public firmware versions for it. Yes, there have been bugs and the 1.0 was not so good in some aspects (Mail for Exchange bugs), I have even list of the bugs I encountered with it, but this isn't different with any complicated products nowadays from vendors, Nokia and others. For example using your criteria I wouldn't consider any version of Microsoft Windows to be finished.

[ds]

FF os as far as i know is pushed solely by carriers frightened by google and apple power carried by their exclusive ecosystems. Their bet is API commoditization by lowering barrier of entry turning Web devs into smartphone apps creators. Success depends on the quality of the framework and whether it provides a quality improvement over Android.
All carrier driven efforts towards client software and APIs have failed spectacularly internationally. This time they left the design part to Mozilla. They start from emerging economies where big growth peaks are yet to happen and where price is the most important factor seems to be well aligned with that strategy. Also local services support (financial, location, news) is vital and big, western based app ecosystems don't compete there diminishing their advantage. Having local devs easily develop local support apps and submit them to carriers may be a niche opener. In developed economies FF os is no go. But its apis may shape and validate standard that IOS and Android will have to support.
Tommi should have a lot to say about that.

[ds]

Comparing Meego and WP7 is moot. While WP its basically a feature phone OS sanctifying all advanced features and many phone basics just for first time fluidity impression MeeGo on the other hand is currently the must powerful and extensible smartphone Os on the market. Their target audiences are mutually exclusive, with Meego goals being much closer to symbian .
Trying to valuate them against each other is assuming each customer group has exactly the same needs (that conveniently can be fully modelled by US customers needs). The case of Symbian proves this wrong. WP7 could be perfectly best choice for Usa without invalidating strategy to push other systems elsewhere. Samsung knows this to o well.

[ds]

After playing with GS3 for a moment I must admit tough times are ahead for Android competitors. It basically smokes all the current competition in most aspects. While the UI is a little bit complex it is more consistent compared to previous versions while delivering more functionality. With Android 4.1 the most garring omissions (and competition attack vector) ; seems to be settled (thought the device itself seems to have enough juice to make it butter on previous version) while high profile IOS app developers are switching to dual platform strategy in spades. The only weak point are tablets but again Nexus 7 value combined with Kindle offer will be hard to beat regardless of the underlying OS. The only people excited about WIN8 seems to be metro enthusiasts (minority) and participants that used to profit from existing Microsoft ecosystems.

[Mr Eric Wu]

@Sander van der Wal
I can't comment / remember what was happening to the other Symbian phones at the time but the N8 was the first of the Symbian^3 software. Others like the 5500 (I think) where shifting very well and it was rumoured the reason for OPKs exit was because he was shifting them so cheaply (to hold market share). With the market increasing I suspect they were as well but I can't say. I don't think it makes much difference though.

"But consider this, if MeeGo was so much better than WP7, Nokia would have been mad to use an inferior OS for a market they wanted to get into very much indeed.
Conclusion: MeeGo was rubbish at the time and not getting good enough in time. It was even worse than WP7. Which was stated in the BusinessWeek article."

I think this would make sense if the operations of Nokia and Elop made sense. But since they don't, I don't agree. The true answer is sell them all, in all areas (like Samsung does with Android, Bada and WP7). There is no need to partition the market, but I chose the North America split because clearly the Nokia / Microsoft deal did have something. Why was MeeGo killed? Because all Smartphone's were killed. The N9 was only launched in countries that the WP7 software could not work well. The N9 was partitioned away. Symbian was not, but it was clear it was not allowed to continue. Nokia had brought up many of the end-of-life RapuYama chips and I guess they wanted to use them. I believe (but never proved it) that PureView 808 was never expected to be on Symbian. If true the last released Symbian phone would have been the Nokia 701 from August 2011, which must have been near ready to ship (or expected!) early in 2011 - e.g. the time of the deal.

So I think the Microsoft deal said no more Smartphones other than Windows Phone, N9 was allowed (as it was a contractual delivery for Intel) and the remaining Symbian phones that were ready were allowed. The PureView 808 I think was only allowed as WP7 could not support it and the technology was too massive to let die without release. Meltimi I think was heading into the land of mini-smartphone or smartphone-lite and probably killed itself by death-by-innovation.

Another possible reason for the death of everything except WP7 is the risk that the employees reject WP, and continue working on MeeGo or Symbian. On Feb 11th there were stories of people chucking their Nokia phones at the wall in disgust. The message given by Elop is you work on Windows Phone or you go home. Accept it or not, but it is your choice.

[Robert]

Jobs' vision seemed to be 'One phone to rule them All'. Just wonder if T. Cook will look at Global Market, his pile of $$$, and decide to expand Apple's line to include real keyboards and feature-phones. Have not seen any public validation of this idea, but it would make sense.
Cook could duplicate and build any Chinese factory they are currently using, on the African continent, draw on a huge labor pool, and make mobiles for that market, built in that market. And compete for the 'high end' of the 'low end' market. I think they could make another boatload of $$$ that way.
As much as Steven Jobs may have hated Android, Samsung is their real competitor. And I'll bet Tim Cook knows that.

[Omino]

Have you noticed this: "It Costs $450 In Marketing To Make Someone Buy a $49 Nokia Lumia" ??? (sources from here: http://mobile.slashdot.org/story/12/07/17/0024240/it-costs-450-in-marketing-to-make-someone-buy-a-49-nokia-lumia) This is more then hopeless and compare this to MeeGo and N9 - what would happen if N9 would have only a half of this support???

[Sander van der Wal]

@Eric Wu

There is independent evidence for the quality of MeeGo at the time time the decision was made to scrap it: bugs.meego.com. The same database Elop was using.

[FormerSymbianJunkie]

It does not make sense in arguing about the comparative merits of MeeGo/WP/Symbian. The fact remains that on Feb 11, 2011, support was withdrawn for two of those platforms and as a result, neither are where they could have been. Talented engineers working on both platforms left in spades and the remaining ones were practically working with an arm tied around their back. In the case of MeeGo, it is a miracle that the N9 has received even as much software support as it has.
The simple fact is : none outside Nokia can accurately state how Symbian and MeeGo products would have looked like today had it not been for the burning platforms memo. That will always remain a "what if" and currently there is no value in discussing that.

[tired]

@sander van der wal
All OS have teething problems. wp incised. In the case of MeeGo, at least the problems can be worked around by the users and devs themselves. For example, a lot of the tweaks and tricks implemented in Pr 1.2 and PR 1.3 were already made available by devs way before the update came out. MeeGo by a wide margin has better usability than wp 7.5. i.e. file transfer, multitasking to name a few. as well as good reviews by most tech blogs.
Comparison is moot point actually. It was the stupidity of elop and Nokia board that destroyed Nokia's market.

[Cyan]

Apparently, Bada was just killed by Samsung.
Bada was already "integrated" into Tizen 6 monthes ago,
and apparently, Tizen is now being "unfocused" by Samsung,
to the point of emptying their roadmap from any Tizen Phone reference.

[KPOM]

I think a jury in California might have a different take on the grading for Apple and Samsung. I'd be curious as to Tomi's reaction. Supposedly a Samsung executive has stated that Friday's outcome was the "worst case scenario." While the Galaxy SIII was supposedly designed to work around the patents, my guess is that Apple will seek an injunction against it, as well.

Sure the ruling affects only the US, but it makes a powerful statement. Plus, even the Korean court ruled Samsung copied the "bounce back" feature. Apple is now in a far stronger bargaining position with Samsung and Google.

[KPOM]

@cyan, Friday's court decision might change those plans about Tizen.

[Hotcandy]

@Sander van der Wal

symbian sales did increase with symbian3 release, mainly due the n8, they did til february 11th, after that it completely went down.

n8 in launch time sold 4m units alone, thats WAY more windows phone lumia with so many deals with operators, universities, FREE XBOX etc. lumia 900 is being given away for free for new consumers and 50$ existing.

[JasonSteve]

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[coques iphone 4]

The iPhone 5 isn't flawless. The hardware is not really the problem, but a lack of OS improvements. The saying used to be Apple knew what we wanted before we did. The current truth is its customers are much more informed in regards to technology and the industry.