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August 15, 2012

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jo

why some people put window phone 4m and bada 4.2m?

i believe windows phone is overshipped somewhere some even not being sold to retailers/operators yet, waiting on a warehouse gathering dust.

nothing have happen to nokia sale 4m out of thin air, number should decrease next quarter due orsbourne effect and overshipping

dp

When I first read about MS-Nokia "alliance", a 1.5 years ago, I thought this will happen: Nokia will die and WP7 will survive.

Elop is not Nokia's CEO, he is still an MS executive trying to sell as many windows as possible and trying to expand their monopoly.

They destroyed Europe's greatest tech company of all time. How pathetic we Europeans actually are? What are we, a freaking colony!?

dp

JD!

Symbian still sells more than WP. It is known truth and numbers speak as well. But who cares when Board of Nokia is Dumb, Deaf and Blind...

As can be compared to Gandhi's 3 Monkeys:
1. Don't see Bad.
2. Don't hear Bad.
3. Don't speak Bad.

tired

Feel like going for a serious drinking binge to mourn the death of a beloved friend. sad that this once great brand has be brought to it's knees by a Canadian idiot blowing smoke up it's ass. the share holders should due this idiot as well as the whole damn board! and the worst part is some idiot is going to see the damn wp percentage as a gain for Nokia!

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

@dp

Europeans as consumers can protest by not buying a Windows Phone product. I know at least I do and as far as I can tel, Windows Phone sales aren't doing that well.

Nokia was the last cell phone manufacturer in Europe and that is how easily it can be dismantled. I think it's time to legislate against this so it doesn't happen in the future.

foo

Tomi,

Have you already written something about the Firefox OS?

http://www.mozilla.org/en-US/b2g/

Do you think it has any chance?

anobserver

@dp:

Europeans are indeed pathetic, and it is not the first time that a worldwide leader has been completely lost through the incompetence of the European management and the ruthlessness of the North American party.

Just see how Gemplus (French SIM and smart-card manufacturer, then worldwide leader) was ultimately taken over by Texas Pacific Group.


@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton:

Forget about laws. The EU Commission is there to ensure that markets remain "free and unimpeded".

KPOM

I think you are undermarking Apple. Let's see how the courtroom strategy works, for one thing. An Apple victory in a US court could have a significant financial impact and could alter Samsung's OS strategy (perhaps pushing them more toward Windows Phone or Bada). Also, Android still seems to have little success breaking into the tablet space. The two markets are intertwined from Apple's perspective, and it could be the key to a gradual proliferation of iOS devices.

u1w1e

Samsung, HTC, ZTE, Huawei and of course Nokia will offer WP8-based phones. WP8 will support SD memory cards, better displays, better cameras ... and there will be no osborning for a while;-) I think they have a very good chance to become the 3rd ecosystem. But I doubt this will save Nokia.

dp

About NOKIA and Europe:

There's absolutely no chance that Americans would allow something like this to happen to one of their companies. We may talk about free market, globalization and brotherly love as much as we can, but thing is, nobody else in the world is THIS STUPID.

bjarneh

Steve Jobs greatest power was that he could turn obvious lies onto the truth; or at least into something very similar to the truth as everyone seemed to believe him. The need for a huge app-store in order to succeed with smart phones is one of those lies; now it seems to be the common belief.

How many "apps" (or programs as we used to call them) do the average user install? 5000? 2000? 1000? Nope, it's around 40, and they are mostly free, and users spend very little time on them compared to browsing/facebook/mail/twitter. Most of the apps earn no money, are a complete nightmare to maintain across multiple platforms (IOS/Android etc.), and are almost never used.

If there was a way to reach all smart-phones at once things would be a lot simpler right? Well there is, it's one of the worst languages ever made (Javascript) in combination with a technology which is being used for something completely different then it was intended for (HTML); but it does work on just about any smart-phone out there. It is not tied down by Apple's or Google's censorship, you get to keep 100% of the profits from your program yourself, and it's maintenance is much simpler.

Hmm, perhaps Steve Jobs was lying when he said that people have stopped searching now and have started to use apps instead, or when he stated that Apple invented the smart-phone; the touch screen... You get the idea, Steve Jobs was a salesman, not a technological genius, he had some serious lying skills though...

A phone with a good browser and clients for: email/facebook/twitter/dropbox/spotify, and good multimedia capabilities is ready to go head to head with the big boys from day 1, throw in 20-30 games of the simple type: angry birds/cut the rope/plants vs. zombies etc. and there really is nothing stopping a new device from becoming huge.

Why did Nokia discontinue the N9 after only 6 months, when they still sell the N8 in all markets after 2.5 years? Well the N9 had all that matters; the look the feel, good multimedia support, a good HTML5 browser, clients for facebook twitter etc., it would have become a huge mess for Nokia if the kept it alive because it would have outsold their other models. They didn't even dare release it properly, afraid that it would interfere with their Windows strategy, and it would have. For Nokia's sake it would be best never to have release the N9 at all, when they were planning a Windows migration.

Since people are switching smart-phones quite often, and they all support what will be the dominant platform (HTML5), I don't think final winners in this market can be decided just yet, but who knows..

93tid

I do not agree that Elop is most incompetent CEO in history. If you evaluate his actions from the perspective of destroying Nokia as his final goal, then he has been absolutely brilliant in his execution.

Matthew Raymond

@Foo:

Firefox OS is literally non-existent with regard to Q2 sales, so there wouldn't be any listed for this blog post. However, I do think it has a bright future for the following reasons:

1) Many apps are already made using Web standards (see PhoneGap, WebOS, HTML-based Metro apps, et cetera).

2) You can develop apps using the Firefox browser (and any browser that supports the necessary Javascript APIs) as an emulator.

3) You can deploy from any website without paying someone for the privilege. (You can even set up your own store.)

4) The entire UI and all standard apps are modifiable/replaceable using Web standards.

5) The underlying browser engine is faster than it would be on phone operating systems Android or Windows Phone because it uses native code with direct access to the kernel. As a result, apps ported from Web-based frameworks like PhoneGap should run faster than their Android versions given the same hardware.

6) You can sync your desktop browser and phone to use the same apps and data on both your desktop and mobile device at the same time.

And even if it dies, Firefox OS is open source software implementing open standards, so you can reuse any part of it in another OS.

Rod

I have a question concerning Samsung's numbers. For some time I've been wondering why they seem to be running away with the Android market in terms of market share and profitability. Unless I'm completely off-base, their smartphones don't seem substantially better (other than having a seemingly endless variety) than those of HTC or Motorola.

Given their recent admission of US tablet sales (suggesting 98%+ occur outside the US), what level of confidence do you ascribe to their 50m smartphone sales?

CN

@Rod

Fair question. Others are thinking the same:

http://www.asymco.com/2012/08/13/how-many-smartphones-did-samsung-ship-in-q2/

MA

Actually, living in Germany I have little to no sympathy for Nokia based on their past performance as a parasitic job killer. I suspect the Rumanians feel equally so. Their modus operandi was to collect subsidies, build factories on the subsidies and job promises, run them till the subsidies ran out, close up and fire the staff and move on to the next round. That hurt their reputation in Germany and they never really recovered from that in the eyes of many. I know that I didn't even look at a Nokia phone after they closed the Bochum site. I still feel they deserve to go down in flames.

khim

Boot2Gecko is another solution in search of a problem.

Frankly: what problem can it solve?

Too high resources requirements of an Android? This is moot point: by the time B2G will be ready for prime time Android will work fine on $50 headset.

The inability to write software purely in HTML/JS? It can only solve it if everyone (or at least majority) will start using it - and you need to somehow attract developers and user to your platform before that magic point.

IOW: B2G have exactly ZERO relevance. Most likely it'll be mobile world version of Esperanto - something which just refuses to die even if it have no chances to succeed.

To understand why you can read excellent article by Joel: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000020.html

If that's too long for you then I'll include short quote which explains everything:

-- cut --
A lot of software developers are seduced by the old "80/20" rule. It seems to make a lot of sense: 80% of the people use 20% of the features. So you convince yourself that you only need to implement 20% of the features, and you can still sell 80% as many copies.

But when you start marketing your "lite" product, and you tell people, "hey, it's lite, only 1MB," they tend to be very happy, then they ask you if it has *their* crucial feature, and it doesn't, so they don't buy your product.
-- cut --

THAT is why you need massive appstore. THAT is why you need APIs beyond HTML5. THAT is why B2G is doomed.

If you have tiny appstore with 1000 applications then typically people have dozen of reasons to avoid your product. HTML5 applications can reduce this number to maybe five or six. If it's something like Microsoft's appstore with 50'000 applications then it's something like two or may be even one.

But in the end if people have ONE reason not to buy your product they will buy something else.

P.S. Note that when iPhone was presented Apple pushed HTML5 as a primary development platform for the iPhone, too. It's not clear if they were just not ready to present Native SDK or if they truly believed in HTML5, but in the end it does not matter: Apple understood their problem, they fixed it and now "there is an app for that". Similarly with Android: initially they planned to use only CPU-agnostic Dalvik solution and 90% of developers were even ready to use just that, but in the end NDK was important part of the strategy. By now most Android users have at least one app with native component. Remove it - and phone will not be bought (this is what Intel found to it's dismay).

Baron95

There is just Samsung and Apple as solid #1 and #2. All the other OEMs are bunched up together. Only 2.8M units (10% of Apple's volume) separate #4 from #10. And only 4.2M units (less than 10% of Samsung's volume separates #3 from #10).

In other words other than #1 (Samsung) and #2 (Apple) it is all noise.

For OS - again, Windows Phone is the fastest growing (percentage wise OS), and is completely obliterating the Linux based OSes.

Next Tuesday Nokia/Microsoft launch Windows Phone 8 in New York City and in 2013 the real battle begins. There is no doubt that Windows will be the #3 mobile computer ecosystem in 2013, behind Android and iOS. Meego, Tizen, Bada and all the Linux OSes are going nowhere and will be nowhere.

Mr Eric Wu

I think that when looking at Nokia figures, now we are 18 months down the line from the Feb 11th announcement, we should exclude Symbian and Meego. It is clear that Nokia has killed them, and either fired or sold off the staff that had any ability to write them. Therefore a better figure for Nokia would be 4M/2.6%. Including Symbian and Meego is just helping to convince Mr Elop that things are still okay.

In my view Nokia is now hanging on for dear life. Every press release, every line in the company report is cleverly written and aims to hide the truth. Like pointing out how your cash in the bank increased, but ignoring that you took out EUR300M loan to do it. Or that the current range of Lumias will be supported well past the launch of Windows 8 (e.g. supported until at least October, not supported by Windows 8). I think in this respect they are now very good at something - it is amazing how lean and mean you can be when you have no real money coming in.

Regarding Jolla I am surprised that no one has considered a possible outcome that they will be brought by Samsung or Intel or even China Mobile? Jolla means boat or dingy and no one goes to sea intentionally in a dingy unless it is a real emergency and they hope to be taken aboard the next tanker or cruise ship. I think it is a clever idea by the MeeGo lot - e.g. gamble their redundancy in the hope they land in Samsung's ship. For example (and I don't know the real figures), say 50 Meego engineers could get EUR50,000 redundancy or EUR25,000 Bridge Startup Loan. If they take the money they each walk away with EUR50,000 and each look for a job. Or they combine the money and with EUR1.25M of funding they start Jolla, have some fun writing cool software and then get brought for say EUR5M. Each gets now EUR200,000 and a job doing something they loved doing. Nokia gets rid of the people and cheaper than redundancy too. Everyone's a winner.

Mr Eric Wu

@ExNokia I read part of your page, but clearly it is an anti-Tomi blog and not so much a fact based blog. Tomi's writtings are often heavily anti-Elop (and as an ex-Nokian myself) I know what it is like to see the company I word hard for make a right cock up, so I understand the emotion. The fact is that all the Elop-hate (justified or not) is easy to ignore. Your blog is pretty pointless once you ignore the anti-Tomi angle. You can't really expect credibility when you are equally as bad or worse.

Are you really trying to defend the Burning Platforms Memo as not being bad for sales? Because I can tell you that I read the memo before 90% of Nokia and knew instantly it was like a bomb going off. And when the Feb 11th session was done, I was forwarding links of articles about Ratner up to the NLT...


@Baron95 There is a lot of talk of WP8 being better for Nokia. I have heard it a lot, and genuinely people believe it. The trouble is that they said it before of the Lumia 800 and Nokia really cannot keep doing this. Launching Nokia WP8 next week sounds right - announce it now and kill any more sales, then ship it in October - the Nokia way. I agree with you that MeeGo/Tizen/Bada and the rest are just noise, but so is Windows Phone at the moment. Only by the immense amount of financial brute-force is WP getting traction and so while it may get to the 3rd ecosystem spot, it will have to wait for Symbian to finally die and for the traction to take it past the rest. However once in the 3th place, it will probably remain in the category of 'noise' and will drop when the money is withdrawn.

There will never be room for three players in a two horse race.

Buttface Elop

I just want to mention that Nokia tried about everything to sell the Windows phones no one wants:

Free XBox360 campaign
100$ voucher
2 for 1 Lumia deals in some countries
The huge huge huge Lumia ads campaigns
Provider offers with contracts.

Especially the 2 for 1 deals make the Windows phone sales look much worse. I bet 99% of all Lumias were "sold" for 1$ together with a provider subscription plan while 99% of the N9s were sold at full price without the huge huge ads and without the voucher or XBox360 or any other extra.

Shame on Stephen Elop. He's a fool.

AlexSander

There is no surprise that N9 sales are discontinued. The last factory in Salo/Finland is closed. So, technically, there are no more N9 available. That's why.

AlexSander

@Sander van der Wal
Symbian was simply bad.
The best way for Nokia was to move forward with MeeGo and not fixing Symbian further.
But skipping that memo part, like natural upgrade, like evolution from Symbian up to MeeGo.
Killing MeeGo and jumping to WP was wrong.

jo

@Sander van der Wal

symbian sales did increase with symbian3 release, mainly due the n8, they did til february 11th, after that it completely went down.

n8 in launch time sold 4m units alone, thats WAY more windows phone lumia with so many deals with operators, universities, FREE XBOX etc. lumia 900 is being given away for free for new consumers and 50$ existing.


right now windows phone are sold at way below MSRP prices, losing money, LG quantum is sold at less 50$ unlocked in walmark. thats used to be hign end when in launched. LG Dropped windows phone.

so far windows phone is a turd, and windows phone 8 won't change that. nokia will ship mindlessly but most of them will not sell causing huge money loses.

Mr Eric Wu

@Sander van der Wal
I can see where you are coming from, but you miss two points that others have also highlighted. The Q4/2010 was the quarter that the N8 shipped. It was over a year late! Originally planned for Q3/2009 it was then moved to Q1/2010 and then the 'final' date for launch was May 2010. It continued to slip until October (Nokia cannot develop software due to internal mismanagement), but as pointed out the day it did ship it saw something like 4m devices leaving the factory. That delay was a big factor in the decline of sales previously (for little other reason than lack of a good product) and also the reason that sales shot up (and Tomi is therefore right in his analysis of Q4/2010).

If the memo had not been released and the switch had not happened, sales would have continued at a reasonable rate. Sales were not going to decline*. The memo (which was half way through Q1/2011) knocked 50% of sales out the door, and hence from that point onwards the downward trend was self-fulfilling.

* The asterisk is for the fact that yes, Symbian was dying in the high-end. What many forget is that Symbian was told to move over for MeeGo. That decision already happened. But the memo killed that too, and people justify it by saying Symbian would never work, while in fact it was working and the succession plan was in action.

The memo and decisions of Feb 11th were in effect, stop the platform that brings in 50% of the profits (Symbian). Stop its succession platform (MeeGo). And plan to release phones in 8 months time on a platform that is only 3 months old (WP7). What Elop should have done was bring WP7 in for the USA (which had weak Symbian sales and the most suitable market for WP), continue MeeGo for the high end (outside-USA) and push Symbian for the low end (would-wide). And then re-evaluate the sales of each 6 months or a year later and re-plan. And do all that without the public badmouthing of any of the platforms, or the premature announcements of products not available for months.

Whatever the reason for Windows Phone not being successful (technical, ecosystem, immature, operator politics, anti-Microsoft, etc) that is no excuse for corporate-suicide. A good CEO would have edged the bets and not taken such big risks by gambling it all on one product until it was a proven success.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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