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« Open Letter to Nokia Shareholders | Main | Failure Version 2: Nokia Lumia Relaunch with Windows Phone 8 is Also a Total Dud (Updated) »

August 28, 2012

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Baron95

Excellent Post - Now we are looking at it the right way.

Of course, with Windows 8 and the further tightening up of OS X and iOS, you will see the top 3 OSes coalesce across device form factors.

I think we need to add Smart TVs and Game Consoles to your computing picture above. A Samsung SmartTV has apps, Netflix, games, etc. So does the Apple TV, Tivo box, BlueRay Players, So does obviously the Xbox, PS3, etc.

Nice start though.

Huber

@Baron95:

I don't think a Smart TV or a console is a 'real' computer.

My definition of a real computer would be something like:

A digital device where the user can install programs in order to perform any task.

With 'any task' I mean e.g. reading a book, surf the internet, create some office document, play games and do programming.

A device on which I cannot create programs of my own or where I am restricted to certain tasks (e.g. only playing games and watching movies) is not a computer for me.

P.S: The real definition for me would be 'a device where I can give any order and the device executes it'. But this would mean that iOS-devices or WP-devices wouldn't count as 'real' computers, while Android-devices would. While this is my opinion, iOS-devices and WP-phones are considered smartphones by the majority of people, so I had to broaden my definition

vladkr

Hi guys,

Just found an interesting, though strange graph on the international edition of Helsingin Sanomat.

It shows Lumia phones outsold any competitor the first three months of this year :
http://www.hs.fi/english/picture/1329104691469

What do you think about it ?

John Waclawsky

Is everyone noticing that Baron95 keeps shilling for Windows 8. Making sure right after the post he is the first comment with a positive WP statement (Tomi you ought to delete these Microsoft ads along with those saying a smart phone is not a computer). Look at all his comments in total. Always shilling that windows is wonderful and in the group of "top 3 OSes" (yeah like an ant is part of top 3 in the animal kingdom). This is just too funny! Nokia's problem is that No One wants windows! Its a dog! Baron95 is a Microsoft Astroturfer.

Now here is an interesting link about Microsoft astroturfing. Wow, please look at all the reference links. Quite a story of Microsoft activities.
http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/AstroTurfing

vladkr

@ExNokia:

I'll answer my own question, as I just checked Apple and Samsung results for Q1 2012.

Officially, Apple sold/shipped 37 millions iPhones on Q1 2012; the HS chart tells us about 3.7 Millions (isn't there a problem with decimals ?)

Officially Samsung sold/shipped 41 millions smartphones on that same quarter; if the HS chart, which says Samsung sold 1.3 Android-based handsets, is right, that would mean Samsung sold 39.7 millions of Bada phones... Seriously ?

So now, it's obvious (it was before, but it is now to me) the chart is completely fake and ridiculous.

Another example of disinformation.

vladkr

Sorry for the double post :

And if figures of the chart correspond to sales in Finland, there still is a problem, as it would mean that nearly half of all mobile devices sold in Europe for Q1-2012 are Finnish-market Lumia.

I can't find any logic in this chart...

vladkr

I just mean that someone - the name indicated on the chart is Johanna Sarajärvi - put on a large diffusion newspaper an information which is obviously wrong, and that shocks me.

Exact quote from HS :
"The graph shows that sales of Nokia’s Lumia telephones have been outselling the competition in the first three quarters of this year. Lumia (blue line), selling 6.9 million handsets, has exceeded sales of the Apple iPhone (purple line, 3.7 million) and Samsung’s Android phones (green line, 1.2 million handsets)."

If I could, I would underline "in the first three quarters of this year"

I don't remember this story from July (maybe because I have a life besides Stephen Elop, Nokia and Tommi), and maybe the story is old, the article is from today.

CN

@vladkr

Fair point.

But since there is all kinds of shit out there, it's - in my opinion - always worth googling a bit, in this case since SA is mentioned as the source.

Let's close this one here. Apologies for getting a bit too aggressive.

vladkr

@CN:

That's okay... I too am a bit tired of all this Microsoft/Nokia story, and I admit I'm not completely objective/careful enough as I have my opinion...

I know most people here don't try to offend other people, but just defend their opinions. It's a right we all take here.

I expected an article about Apple vs Samsung trial (which to me is a long term mistake from Apple), but no... maybe tomorrow.

Baron95

@Huber - On a Samsung (and others) SmartTV you can write apps, publish them to the Samsung app portal, download them and use it. If you have the SDK, you can load apps for testing. BTW you can do the same on the iPad, iPhone, etc. The TVs have browsers, email clients, games, etc.

There is basically no difference in programability between say an iPad and a Samsung SmartTV. And the new ones will be running Android soon. Samsung BlueRay players offer basically the same. And you can write indie games and other apps for Xbox, PS3, Nintendo, etc. And they all have browsers.

You'd be hard press to convince anyone that a game console and a connected SmartTV are not computers.

The only distinction you can make is mobile vs fixed and personal vs shared. A smartphone, a tablet with mobile connection, a laptop with mobile connection are personal and mobile computers. The above plus portable game consoles (e.g. PSP) and music players (e.g. iPodTouch) with WiFi are connected personal computers. Not quite mobile, since they can't be used at speed (e.g. on a train or automobile), but can move from WiFi location to wiFi location.

Desktop PCs, home game consoles, SmartTvs are fixed (or limited mobility) computers - mostly personal, but sometimes shared (family).

Servers, institutional computers, mainframes, etc are not personal, so not interesting for this discussion.

Duke

Hey, here's clever AstroTurf'ing trick with Baron95 and Huber going back and forth with their own little discussion to take over Tomi's blog so there are always positive references to Microsoft products and windows as part of the Nokia future. Just look at what they have been posting. Pathetic!

Afewgoodmen

Interesting post. I am really amazed at what Apple has done in 5 short years and how Microsoft has nose dived in just 4 years. The future is mobile. I still think that traditional PCs would keep on seeing their market shares eroded by tablets and smartphones. Any manufacturer that cannot bite into the mobile pie, would inevitably have only itself to blame!

RobDK

Great post Tomi! Now you are on the right direction. The smartphone is a mobile computer, and Apple leads the way. The traditional mobile phone firms are dead!

ChrisD

Another very interesting take, from the US... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444914904577617801181373944.html

TL;DR for those who don't like to read: WP7 is not selling.

Huber

@Baron95: We are entering a grey area here. Technically, almost everything is a computer or controlled by a computer nowadays, even my washing machine.

If we count TVs as computers, then we'd also have to count streaming devices like the WD TV as computers, or Routers for that matter.

@Duke: Show me a thread where I have written a single positive comment about WP. Do the world a favour and just leave your conspiracy theories bottled up in your head.

John Phamlore

Tomi,
What's odd to me is why Android isn't just considered Linux. Perhaps the reason is explained in articles such as:
http://lwn.net/Articles/446297/
"Android, forking, and control." Years afterwards a reasonable person would conclude Google did everything right with Android and perhaps the Linux kernel gatekeepers should swallow some pride and accept what has been proven to be an overwhelmingly commercial success, but that is apparently not the way things work in the Linux community. Instead the Linux community prefers to do this:
http://lwn.net/Articles/479841/
"Autosleep and wake locks". And what they get is "...even if Android itself never moves to this implementation, it should be that much easier to run an Android user space on a mainline kernel."

So instead of having a unified kernel years ago, the Linux gatekeepers by in effect rejecting Google coders as peers, the most insulting thing one can do in any profession, are helping to kill off a Linux tablet right now:
http://lwn.net/Articles/504865/
"Akademy: Plasma Active and Make Play Live".


John Phamlore

The operating systems in the top of the listings that power smartphone computers and that will be contending in the future have one thing in common: They will all support the Qualcomm Snapdragon S4. This is no accident. As I have earlier documented:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57408903-94/how-at-t-nokia-pulled-windows-phone-into-the-4g-lte-world/
Microsoft was pushed into supporting Qualcomm's LTE by AT&T in order to get AT&T to offer the Lumia. This is how the major American telecoms can exert what would seem to be undue influence relative to their market size. The major American telecoms have made their decision to go with Qualcomm's LTE, the Qualcomm Snapdragon S4 train is leaving approximately late 2012 / early 2013 depending on chip supply, and if a smartphone OS wants to be a major contender, it better be on that train. This is a rumored explanation of why RIM has delayed Blackberry 10 so long, it has to be on that train.

John Phamlore

Tomi,
By now I think it's becoming obvious for much of the world's population, the phone is the computer, and much of what PCs do may be becoming superfluous. But I wonder if the focus of various commentators on the operating system is a bit misplaced. I'm not sure governments care all that much about the operating system, other than how to subvert their security to monitor dissidents, but I think they do care deeply about other things, like LTE.

With Qualcomm having such a tremendous lead in multimode 4G LTE baseband chips used in American networks, one would think China would have some objections to an American company creating a hegemony both in IP and in the actual hardware implemented. I suggest people have a look at reports such as:
http://www.gsma.com/spectrum/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/gstdlte.pdf
The report is a bit dated, by about a year, but it provides a fascinating examination of the Chinese effort to push their own version of LTE, TD-LTE. And in this push, China has been willing to make deals with various companies to develop technology, like apparently Intel:
http://gigaom.com/broadband/is-td-lte-replacing-wimax-as-intels-pet-technology/

As far as Nokia goes, reading the above .pdf, the alarming thing should be to do a simple search for the word "Nokia." I'm finding only four references, a couple related to Nokia Siemens Networks. The closest to a reference about Nokia in relation to active LTE is a pie chart showing Nokia having about 9% of essential LTE patents, as of late 2010. But as for the actual implementation of a Nokia version of TD-LTE in a working chipset, there is nothing. This report being somewhat dated, back to mid-2011, is even more alarming because even Elop couldn't have blown up the entire TD-LTE Nokia development effort that fast. I'm just not seeing any evidence Nokia LTE effort existed very seriously in either TD-LTE or in FDD-LTE.

As the report shows, the Chinese have their own reasons for pushing LTE, TD-LTE (the predecessor TD-SCDMA isn't really exportable). The US may in some ways be insignificant, but it is not just about the US, it's about the US AND China. That is why Nokia could dominate the previous generation of technology, possessing the entire phone IP stack, and creating applications that are more advanced than that seen in the US today, yet still be in a hopeless position that its Board of Directors would have seen years ago.

albi

vladkr, the Finnish capture says that the graph is comparing the first 3 quarters after the launch. So Lumia sales are compared to iPhone sales in 2007-2008 and Android sales in 2009 or whatever year Android devices started to be available.

vladkr

@Albi :
Thank you for translating, I read only the English caption, which is wrong.

Walt French

@John Phamlore, I, for one, would not consider Android as linux inasmuch as virtually ALL Android apps would take huge conversion efforts to run under any linux distro.

And vice versa.

Tomi has done us all a service by taking a unified view of smartphones through desktops, but linux's claim to fame is on servers, which have essentially NOTHING in common with smartphone usage, except being on opposite ends of a net connection.

John Phamlore

@Walt French, I blame the split between the Android kernel and Linus Torvalds-blessed kernel entirely on the Linux kernel gatekeepers. The Linux kernel gatekeepers simply misjudged their position of strength, feeling that eventually Google would be forced to kiss their feet and rewrite their code to meet the gatekeepers' (inadequate) alternate solutions.

But Google with Android did something far more. If one looks at the OSes that Tomi lists, observe the absence of a Linux-based competitor to Android, despite a few years ago there being several, candidates with major corporate backing for such an alternate mobile-targeted Linux-based OS.

As the articles I have tried to link show, Google did two things that basically kill off any Linux competitors by making things very convenient for hardware manufacturers: 1) Android wrote their own userland from scratch (I know Google bought the company that first started Android) 2) Google VERY carefully separated out the kernel header files and libraries that were needed to interface to userland. This enabled the hardware manufacturers in Asia to freely include Android-compatible binary blobs required for driver support, with their not having to provide source code for these blobs. (Linus Torvalds already blessed an opening for hardware manufacturers such as Nvidia to write drivers reliant on blobs, everyone else just drove a truck through this opening.)
http://lwn.net/Articles/504865/
"But Google does no GPL enforcement, which results in mostly binary-only devices. For device manufacturers, getting Android to boot is the end goal so that the device can be sold ... Part of the problem is that there is "little respect for the GPL" in Asia, Seigo said ... When setting out on this task, Seigo said that he had no idea "how hard it would be to get GPL source" from the vendors."

Back when Nokia owned the entire IP stack for their phones it was no problem getting drivers written. But now that Nokia has lost control of this IP stack to competitors such as Qualcomm, if they want to use their competitors' hardware, they have to play by the competitors rules. I suspect this is the same consideration for any other Linux-based OS now trying to compete vs. Android where Android is strong: it just won't get the same driver support as Android and will soon not run on desired hardware.

Carpenter

They seem to have started mainlining a while ago: http://elinux.org/Android_Mainlining_Project
It doesn't need to be huge burden to support android and other Linux distros but they have still some stuff to do to enable easy porting.
Even UI side it would make sense to offer some alternatives. It's interesting to see how Google will co-operate with Digia and the community with QT port.

Baron95

Linux can *NOT* compete in an open consumer computer in a fast moving space.

Yes Linux can compete in server land, where drivers are mostly for slowly evolving standards based storage, networking, etc, and device generations are spaced by 2+ years.

In consumer laptops, phones, etc with fast evolving hardware, interfaces, attachments, etc it has always and will always fall flat compared to fast movers like Apple (integrated), Android and Windows (designed for easy porting and drivers).

Yes, Bada can have a little run in lowly devices with few apps and no attachments to hit a low price point in Asia for a couple of years. But sooner or later the competition from Apple and Android (and Windows) gets there, and their speed to market and rich drivers support wins out.

The same way Linux fans have been waiting for decades to get even a couple of % points of the PC market, they'll be waiting many decades to get a couple of percentage points of the mobile market.

There is a reason Maemo, Meego, Maltemi have failed, Bada is failing and Tizen will fail.

Linux, its processes to support new devices and GPL all suck in fast moving consumer markets.

Tomi can write 1,000,000 words on Bada and Meego. It won't happen.

John Waclawsky

Why tear down Linux with nonsense arguments? We obviously have a Microsoft shill (Baron95 the astroturfer) continually telling us how superior windows is, now with drivers.

Using Occam's razor, the root cause of Nokia's predicament is NO ONE wants to buy a windows phone. This windows only strategy will be the death of Nokia. It is very simple. If no one buys your product you go out of business!

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