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July 12, 2012

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RobbieC

By some accounts maybe 0.5% converted to Meego instead of Lumia but the numbers have not been released!

It is absolutely shocking what has transpired @ Nokia.

Bradley

Elop is an idiot. The board members are idiots. Worst CEO in history. Let's look at the big players in the game (except Apple, they're brilliant), Samsung & HTC, they have Windows Phone 7 and Android devices. They're even investing in Tizen. They will also have Windows Phone 8 devices soon. They're not stupid to put all their eggs in one basket, like what Elop made Nokia do. Android is mad successful and profitable, but they're not relying 100% on it. So how can a CEO, which came into a company that had over 30% market share thanks to Symbian, look at that and kill it. Nokia also introduced the world to MeeGo and the N9, the world loved it, (still do) but he killed it. Apple alone has only one mobile OS, and is churning out profits like selling food at a market.

Am not saying that Nokia shouldn't left Symbian, it has been dying since iOS and Android took off in 2007 & 2008 respectively. But he should have let it die gracefully while still continuing to release devices like the incredible PureView. There is also MeeGo, which many saw as a winner, all except Elop who deliberately turned a blind eye to it, in favor of his Windows Phone agenda.

KPOM

This is quite a bit different from the "Elop-is-a-Microsoft-Mole" conspiracy theory. That said, Ballmer has been an OK, but not great CEO. Microsoft could have managed their end a bit better, for instance, by not demanding exclusivity or by delaying the announcement until Windows Phones were closer to being ready. Heck, they could have announced in February 2011 that Nokia would be developing Windows Phones for the North American market, and announced in August that things were going so well that they decided to make it a worldwide launch. That would have lessened the Osborne effect. Since WP lacked apps, they could also have developed a bridge for Symbian 3 apps and announced that Nokia would allow Symbian users to acquire Windows Phone equivalent apps at no or a low cost (perhaps using some of that marketing money).

Anyway, do you plan to write anything about RIM's new CEO? He seems pretty clueless, insisting that the company is doing just fine as he's laying off 33% of his workforce.

P910i ....

Stephen Elop's excuse: "We had moments in the past year and a half when we could have done some things differently had we known that the industry was changing so rapidly"

Wow, seems like no one at Nokia noticed that Mobile is a rapidly changing industry! There must have been someone at Nokia reading "Communities Dominate Brands" way back then?!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/nokia-ceo-stephen-elop-admits-failure-to-foresee-fast-changing-industry/articleshow/14466105.cms

Stefan Constantinescu

How exactly did you get that 2.4% market share value? Population weighted average? The data Kantar posted suggests Windows Phone has 5.4% share in Germany. Are they nuts?!

GeorgeV

That's the average market share for multiple countries. Globally, WP7 still has only arund 2% market share. What they have in a certain country is pretty irrelevant. Android even has 84% in Spain. But what matters is the global market share.

So  Vatar

What I don't get:

There is one onslaught of devastating numbers and information about the total failure of Nokia's smart phone strategy under Elop, but he is still in office and people are still defending his tenure.

There are even people that claim it as success for Elop to raise WP's market share globally to whatever it is, maybe 2%, maybe 3%. Elop has been CEO of Nokia for one and a half years, and even a year ago Nokia's market share in smartphones was easily 13%, and now it is less than 6%. An unbelievable failure, a total disaster. And Elop is not accountable for this?

I don't get it.

vladkr

@so vatar:

" (...) and even a year ago Nokia's market share in smartphones was easily 13%, and now it is less than 6%. An unbelievable failure (...)"

And that doesn't include Nokia's dumbphone/featurephones markets, which must have dived as well.

So  Vatar

... and then there are the unresolved problems with NSN. What did Elop / BOD do all that time. So pre-occupied killing Qt / Maemo / Meego / Symbian?

Good job, Flop.

Woo

To be honest, it's not only Elops fault that WP7 phones aren't selling better. It's also Microsoft, who are unable to get a mobile operating system written that is even remotely on par with the current market dominators iOS and Android.

Forcing Nokia (and all the other WP manufacturers) to produce single-core CPU boards in 2011 where most of the market is on dual or quad cores, because they can't get multitasking to work, or forbidding them to add an SD card slot because of their messed-up filesystem design.. thus effectively making all WP7 phones technically far inferior to the competition's products, while aiming for the premium price range.. this was all just designed to fail.

And it's not the end with that.. I've recently got a Lumia710 for free from my cell provider, and it's absolutely awful. Nothing about this phone justifies the 400$ that Nokia calls for it. The manufacturing quality is inferior even to some of the 50-100$ China phones that I tested before (buttons that don't react, back cover that doesn't fit right...). Anyone who doesn't mind which OS his phone is running, and has the chance to hand-compare the Lumia to e.g. an HTC or LG will surely not pick the Lumia.

So  Vatar

@baron95:
Another one of your useless contributions.

To make it useful: I take UK just because you took UK:

Android: Up 8.5 percentage points market share to 57.2% market share
IOS: Up 5.4 percentage points market share to 25.6% market share
RIM: Down 8.7 percentage points market share to 10.6% market share

WP7: Up 2.0 percentage points market share to 3.7% market share
Bada: Down 0.8 percentage points market share to 0.4% market share

Analysis:
In UK Android is uncontested market share leader with strong gains, IOS a distant second showing healthy gains.
RIM is crashing having missed the train to finger friendly touch phones and executing badly.
All other systems are irrelevant with less than 5% market share.

Nokia? Do they still compete in UK? I thought they compete in Finland only.

JollaPolla

This is all too contradictory for me!

1. I want to see Nokia, which exploits the developing countries humiliated. Check.

2. I want to see the horrible Symbian bashed, insulted, defamed, destroyed, burned, shredded to pieces, and eternally abandoned. Check.

3. I want to see some arrogant Nokians get fired. Check.

But I don't like that Finland will go into even deeper financial depression because of the flagship company going under.

I just cannot make my mind up if this is something I like to see!

Matthew Raymond

Have rumors that Bada 2.0 will be merged with Tizen effectively Osbourned current Bada phones?

KM

Frankly, I have my doubts that anyone buying Bada cares about such things - otherwise they'd not be buying Bada.
The system is a low end to mid range niche product with no real appeal to people who want to do more with their phone than using the preinstalled features which essentially means it can't possibly be Osbourned.

Spawn

About the Nokia Tablet and Microsoft Surface story:
There are rumours that in the contract Microsoft make certain promisesbaccording to how well the Lumia sells.
One such promise was that Nokia would introduce the Surface Tablet as own product. Yes, Microsoft would give up on Surface and leave althe resupt of there work to Nokia IF Nokia reaches a certain marketshare with Lumia.
Nokia failed to reach that and so now there will be no Nokia Tablet.
That story may not true but if it is then Nokia lost more then we know about.

Baron95

@SoVatar

I could have picked up say Italy, where Windows Phone was up 300%, or Germany where Tomi's favorite Bada crashed down by 87%. As I said, UK looked like it was in the middle of the trends.

Face it, if you can't get iOS, and you think Android is too crowded/competitive, there is only one alternative out there - Windows 8.

All others Bada, Meego, Symbian, BBOS, tizen, etc are crashing fast or being discontinued or both.

You may not like it, but it is what it is. Only Android, iOS and Windows Phone are gaining share. Period. Full Stop. That is the data.

Spawn

@KPOM

RIMs CEO is just some months in position. He did not do major failures yet like Elopping his company or so. The delay of BB10 may caused by things that happened beforehand. Even as CEO your possibilities to accelerate ate.limited. So, lets give him some more time and watch closely.

@So Vatar

> Elop, but he is still in office and people are still defending his tenure.

The new chairman just announced a plan B. I would say they are working on that but try to prevent Elopping there WP7 line or a followup WP8 as good as possible.
I think they not have much choices left. Keeping silent till plan B is ready may not be the worst move.

> There are even people that claim it as success for Elop to raise WP's market share globally

Maybe it is. As it seems raising WP market share is Elops primary focus. What happens with Nokia on the way comes second.

@Baron95

> I see that nothing changes

Yes, you still keep your eyes closed. Continue but do not expect that changes anything.

> Nokia RIM

RIM still is delaying is product. If you have nothing in the market you have nothing to sell.
Nokia did bring its new 2 products to market already but they refuse ro sell the one (MeeGo) while the other does not sell.
You see? Very different situation.

doto

So Lumia 900 came to Europe in May,June, to the US in April? It is just the beginning...
What about iPhone in 2008 after the launch? I do not thing that iPhone had more then 2% market share after 1 or 2 month....

HCE


Frankly, I don't see how this move benefits Microsoft. Regardless of how badly Nokia has done, they are still the largest Windows Phone OEM. By not allowing any Lumia phones to be upgraded to WP 8, all that Ballmer is doing is ensuring that there is no incentive for Lumia customers to stay with the Windows Phone platform. Not to mention that the lack of an upgrade path would have made them all hopping mad. Not to mention that the lack of an upgrade path will have a huge negative effect on existing phone sales.

I suspect that the reason why WP 8 cannot be installed on existing WP phones is that it absolutely requires dual core processors to run. Which brings us to the following question

Did Elop know this before he released the Lumia phones? If he did and still went ahead with those plans then he is an incompetent idiot. If he didn't know then it is Ballmer who is the incompetent idiot. Of course Ballmer and Microsoft aren't above maliciously throwing partners under the bus but usually when that happens, Microsoft gains something from their treachery. This time both Microsoft and Nokia lose and I cannot think any reason other than sheer incompetence that this has been allowed to happen.

While I still disagree with a lot of what Tomi says, I'll agree with him on one thing - Elop needs to go. And he should take Ballmer with him as he leaves.

- HCE

doto

Phones like N9,Lumia 800 or 900 have the best design in the world.

Spawn

@Woo

> To be honest, it's not only Elops fault that WP7 phones aren't selling better. It's also Microsoft,

What in turn is Elops fault cause he decided that Nokia now depends.only on what Microsoft dord, has no way to to themself anything any longer and he decided there is no alternate left to that.

Elop combined wrong analysis of the problem with half-done execution and fatal communication.

Like to be a really good CEO? Easy! Watch what Elop would do and do the opposite!

@Matthew Raymond

Rumors are irrelevant plus some conditions are.missing. Read up about the Osborn-effect at Wikipedia. Read up about the Elop-effect at Tomi's blogs/articles.

Louis

"You may not like it, but it is what it is. Only Android, iOS and Windows Phone are gaining share."

@Baron: Throwing WP in there is a bit silly. It's down with the "other" platforms in its absolute numbers, and would be indistinguishable except for Microsoft's willingness to throw money at developers to keep it relevant in the app space.

The basic problem is that iOS disrupted the market with multi-touch, apps, and high end hardware. Android and Sammy disrupted the market with a modern OS that can be just downloaded and aggressive exploitation of Moore's law to bring it to niches where Apple isn't.

iOS is the profit leader and place where important new ideas and business models get validated. Android is the market share leader and is gulping up dumb phone users.

All the others are basically symmetric---by which I mean copies. That means they get new hardware and software last, and the companies backing them need to spend their own money or time to get required apps.

I don't see any of them catching up in the short term. To draw large numbers of users, they'll need something more distinctive. Different colored phones or slightly different gestures/more megapixels isn't going to be enough.

doto

Very good post Mr HCE! I aree with you.

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

I'd say it's already mission accomplished. Their goal was to kill a competitor and they did it. Meego and Symbian are gone, now Microsoft should focus on securing important assets from Nokia. The assets are mainly patents, IPs and Navteq and with Nokia going bankrupt they can easily get, cheaply as well. Microsoft doesn't need Nokia as OEM, statistics show that Nokia is not selling better than Samsung or HTC, also the Lumia phones is not done by Nokia anyway. Basically manufacturing is secured without Nokia.

The partnership between Microsoft and Nokia is going really bad. I've seen that Nokia blames Microsoft for some bugs in the Lumia phones and that is really a bad sign. When the blame game starts, then you know that it will not work out and no company wants to deal with the problems. Microsoft therefore wants to get out and the best would be to see that Nokia goes bankrupt so that the can secure what is valuable from Nokia.

In practice Microsoft can start to create their own phones but that could be a bad move because that might alienate Samsung and HTC or other OEMs. However, it seems like Steve Ballmer and his MS management has snowed in on Apple, wants to become like Apple and that means that they might go on to create their own HW anyway.

N80 IE

@Baron: you are totally wrong - the Bada is quite a great system (both from a consumer and developer perspective). The App market might not be big but it offers all possible app that I need. The only complaint I had was it didn't do Skype. I have used Iphone, Symbian and Android phones before. Have u used a Bada phone before to make such an assessment?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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