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« A Few Thoughts about Microsoft's Tablet PC, the Surface | Main | Revised Nokia 2012 Market Share Projections, Revenues, Profits ASPs by Quarter »

June 26, 2012

Comments

LocalGuy

I dont know what to say.
My head is spinning when I read this and I want to sit and screan/cry.

God. I can only imagine what pain engineers now being fired will feel.

cycnus

Tomi,

do you think you need to update your forecast due to this new situation?

Henry Sinn

Yes - most people that have half a clue as to what's going on are all calling Elop a criminal.. [based on what he's NOT doing as Tomi states makes me agree]

Arguably the Nokia board should be all sent off to jail with him too..

This 'no upgrade' path to 8 is no real surprise.. All part of the MS madness and muppetry

My thoughts lay firmly in the "I wonder what Bill Gates is thinking about all this?"

Windows upgrades were always backwards compatible...

PhoneBoy

The question I have is: why is Elop being allowed to continue to destroy Nokia? As you pointed out, the board fired OPK for far less, yet he is being allowed to continue to destroy Nokia--one of the worlds most valuable brands--at a record-breaking pace.

This makes me think this destruction is part of a plan--a plan the board is clearly in on. The question: what could that plan be?

I still believe Microsoft could buy Nokia, even though reports are that Microsoft looked into it and ran far, far away from it!

cycnus

That because.... Elop has a mantra
"The way to glory is through salvation".
"If you have faith in Microsoft, Microsoft will reward you"
LOL

Whereas OPK only sell "symbian" and "MeeToo"
LOL


vijay

1. do you know that Facetime and Siri DO NOT WORK on IPhone 3,3G,3GS, and 4 ?

2. do you expect a phone without a camera to take photos after an OS upgrade ?

3. did you hear of wp7.8 ?

4. do you know that except Samsung, none of the other android phones are profitable ?

5. did you ever hear about commodity devices and downward price spiral ?

6. do you know that a painted rock with a sony or apple written on it would sell, but that a nokia written on a gold tablet cannot sell in US ?

7. do you know that android 2.3.x share is 65% and android 4.x is 7% ?

8. do you know that wp8 has 18months guaranteed upgrades period ?

9. do you know that a phone lifetime is <6months and not 10years like a gaming console ?

10. do you know that a phone is no longer a phone but a computer ?

vijay

11. did you hear about 'smoked by windows phone ?'

12. did you understand that a single core wp7 beat dual core android, iphone and others

13. did you hear that wp8 is dual core qualcomm snapdragon, not to mention the ecosystem benefits of w8 surface tablet, w8 pcs, xbox.

14. did you hear about asha line of nokia basic phones

15. dont you think/speculate the prospects of being the sole-licencee/exclusive maker of surface tablet will be good

16. do you pick RIM or NOKIA as having more prospects for the coming 2 years.

17. do you see any differentiators in nokia like those of RIM [enterprise friendly, secure backbone]

18. do you realize that if RIM jumps on the Android bandwagon, it can win because of its differentiating factors; but nokia cannot and will have a single thread to hang on like htc one

19. do you realize that nokia[2008] is no comparison to samsung [a conglomerate]
a. World's-largest IT producer, surpassing the previous leader, HP in 2009
b. Dominates the world TV market since 2006
c. Maintains the leading sales position for eight years in a row in LCD panels
d. With Galaxy Sxx , the company's SMARTPHONE lineup was first place in global sales figures since 2011
e. Top supplier in the HOME APPLIANCES market.
f. Among top 20 brands respected and recognized world over.
g. LEDs + Mem Chips [dram,sram] + Basic Phones + PCs
h. Sponsor of 2012 Olympics
i. Has "Admiration, Trust, Good Feeling and Overall Esteem" world over
j. Consumer Electronics - dvd, mp3, air conditioners
k. Supplies key components to all major mobile hardware companies.
l. Employees: 160,000 [ MS - 92,000 Apple - 60,400 Google - 33,000 ]
m. Friends of Google and whatever it takes to succeed; market driven partnerships with MS and Apple.

20. N reasons you are not seeing the picture properly and are unprofessional

Kenny

No. 11 and 12 are just crap. Not that the rest of vijay's points are good but I'll just comment on these two.

No. 11 - smoked by WP is just an artificially arranged contest where the employees set up their phones properly and practice their moves. It's like competing rubik cubes against an opponent who has set up his cube 3 steps away from solution and memorized the moves.

No. 12 - No, the single core WP7.5 phone does not beat dual core Androids which can play 1080p video which would choke the WP7.5 phone. Yes it can scroll the 2D menu smoothly but apps still take their time to load and switching between tasks is S-L-O-W...

Hardeep Singh


1. do you know that Facetime and Siri DO NOT WORK on IPhone 3,3G,3GS, and 4 ?

That happened atleast a year after Apple had been selling Iphone 4, Lumia 900 hasn't even come to all markets yet and already obsolete.


2. do you expect a phone without a camera to take photos after an OS upgrade ?

This question is Irelevant to the post

3. did you hear of wp7.8 ?

WP 7.8 is the reason why Lumia line is obsolete. Had they received WP8 they wouldn't be.

4. do you know that except Samsung, none of the other android phones are profitable ?

Samsung is topping the charts doesn't mean others are making a loss. Tiny Indian manufacturers like Karbonn are making a killing out of selling Android.

5. did you ever hear about commodity devices and downward price spiral ?

The phones being discussed aren't commodity deviecs but flagship smartphones. Irrelevant question.

6. do you know that a painted rock with a sony or apple written on it would sell, but that a nokia written on a gold tablet cannot sell in US ?

Not true. US is contolled by Carriers. Good carrier relationships may not get you mindshare but it'll help you make tones of money nonetheless.

7. do you know that android 2.3.x share is 65% and android 4.x is 7% ?

Phones runnning 2.3.x can be upgraded to 4.x thanks to the strong community and Cyanogen team. For Windows Phone there is no such thing. You'll have to buy a new phone to upgrade from 7.8 to 8.

8. do you know that wp8 has 18months guaranteed upgrades period ?

That's a nice promise but very easy to get out of. Like WP7.8 is considered an upgrade but the phone owner knows he has been screwed.

9. do you know that a phone lifetime is <6months and not 10years like a gaming console ?

Phone's lifetime is <2 years but certainly not 6 months. This comment makes it pretty clear that you're buying the wrong phones and wasting a lot of money.

10. do you know that a phone is no longer a phone but a computer ?

They've been one since 7650's launch in 2002. What are you on about?

Gabriel Harrison

@vijay suggest you read Tomi's blogs over the last year. One of the must accurate and respected mobile commentators out there. He's been almost spot on so far.

vijay

[I.] Could Nokia have built a platform with symbian/meego/ with failure not an option?
and to battle it out with :

1. Apple [hardware+software+apps+brand+BoatLoadsOfMoney]

2. Google [partners+software+apps+brand+BoatLoadsOfMoney]

3. Microsoft
[partners+software+apps+brand+BoatLoadsOfMoney]

I doubt it.

[II.] Should Nokia have gone with Android ?

So who are the most successful phone android makers in the market right now ?

1. Samsung - Conglomerate. Failure is an option
2. HTC - hanging on 1 thread - One series and running around courts
3. Huawei, LG, Karbonn, Dell, Acer, Asus ... - whos buying them ?

[III.] Should have collaborated with

1. Intel [ meego ]
2. Community [ linmo ]

No traction and too slow ! Android iterates every few months.

vijay

See the whole picture; its not the problem of just one device manufacturer.

1. Since the commoditization of smartphones has started with Android, there's not much money that can be made of-except if you own the complete platform or ecosystem.

2. Remember HP and DELL: the top makers for windows os; Its the same now : Samsung and Xyz are top makers for Android

3. Now HP's pc division is wobbling. And DELL makes 1/6th of its revenue from PC's

4. The platform war is REAL; only should not have been announced with decibels enough to shock shareholders, public and media.

5. Samsung is a special case; but still is not sitting idle or believing google's android as the savior.

vijay

If you make great mobile devices and thats it.
Great ! you can live a life of a mediocre company under the whims of google or microsoft.

Theres no more place for a single hw device company in the IT sector;
or sorry but that category of biz is obsoleted - PALM, RIM, NOKIA

Asus, Acer, Samsung are electronics companies who make monitors, keyboards, mouse, laptops, chips, motherboards and lot more to cushion.

vijay

Don't get me wrong.

I feel sorry for the nokia employee who's fired.

Tech disruptions kill a few companies and give rise to a new crop.

Economy in recession also is not going to help.

I was a proud owner of nokia mobile phone around 10 years back; and a lumia user now.

vijay

The guarantee for future is in
PATENTS:
1. use them to create finished products
2. license them to others
3. never stop R & D

Sander van der Wal

I don't see WP 8 not being installable on older phones a big problem. As has been said, it did not sell that well, so almost nobody is going to suffer because of this. And because it did not sell very well, apparently, there will not be a lot of stock being returned.

Further, I would expect both Nokia and their carrier customers to have planned the stock levels for the WP 7 Lumia's because of this. In logistics, a field Nokia is said to be very good at, this is not a very hard problem to solve. And to think this situation was not being considered is naïve.

zlutor

The real problem is not necessarily that old Lumias are not upgradable - the real one is nobody will buy. Consumers will wait WP8 devices coming in autumn(?)...

Nokia should offer a free WP8 device for everybody buying a L900 after M$ announcement about no-upgrade and share the cost with Microsoft (as part of platform support).

It may save the sales - or make a little boost even...

zlutor

@Tomi: do you think there is still any other path than WP inside Nokia? MeeGo team was effectively butchered long time ago, Meltemi guys joined them some days ago...

Systematically nothing left in-house being able to endanger WP... :-(

Are you aware of this: http://mynokiablog.com/2012/06/26/leaked-meltemi-almost-11-with-n9-ui-c7-like-hardware-without-buttons-on-screen/comment-page-2/#comment-604421

"Meltemi was less than 2 months from launching when it was killed" - if that is true... :-(

khim

The problem with WP7/WP8 is NOT a problem of capabilities. It's problem of honesty.

Think about it: Samsung Galaxy SIII is selling like a hotcakes, yet when asked about Jelly Bean they say they left space for larger OS but can not guarantee the Jelly Bean!

Why upgradeability is not a big deal for Android but disaster for WP7? Easy: everyone knows Android phones are not like iPhone, their upgrades are slow in coming and many phones are never upgraded. People don't like it, but they know about it from the beginning and they buy the phone with this knowleadge.

Microsoft, on the other hand, touted the upgradeability for year and half! When Mango was released it boasted that [unlike that poor Android] all phones will get the update. Later WP7 phones were even kicked out from the store (not that even Apple does that). IOW: Microsoft turned upgradeability to something important, desirable and EXPECTED! Even now it touts 18 months guaranteed upgrade cycle as one of WP8 strengths!

And yet... Microsoft offers no upgrade to WP8? WTF? Wasn't future-proofness of WP7 one of it's selling points? Weren't 101 problems supposed to be fixed over time with upgrades? And now instead of fixes for all these real problems you give me new homescreen?

This is psychology: it's not about upgradeability per se. It's about broken promises. People are not rational (that's why marketing exist) - and they don't react rationally. Once bitten, twice shy. Even if, realistically speaking, we can expect WP8 to last (Microsoft does not have anything in the wings to replace it) people will still distrust it because of this WP7 upgradeability fisaco. And if WP had problems BEFORE that point... I doubt it'll be profitable ever again. Microsoft will keep it around in a Bing-like manner but for how long?

Earendil Star

As expected the misinformation campaign is raging on.

Why just screw partners and customers? Let's also make fun of them!

Fact is WP7 is POS. Despite propaganda that it is better than the competition.
Have you ever tried one? Switching between apps often crashes or restarts them? Come on, let's be serious.
WP7 is just a demo platform for metro and UX responsiveness. The rest is crap.
I've seen people testing the responsiveness of WP on Youtube by crazily swiping their fingers up and down to see if the menu was following the motion of the hand and saying: haha, it's quicker! it's quicker!. Of course it's quicker. Nothing goes on in the background while you are crazily swiping. Is that a normal phone usage? Is that more important than usability and apps? As usual it's just propaganda. Nothing more.

By the way, it's not just me saying it. It is... MS itself!

If MS felt the need to get rid of WP7 after such a little time span, with no upgrade path possible, it means the OS was really flawed.
Yesterday they were saying that multiple cores, different screen resolutions, NFC, etc. were useless. Ooops. That's all in WP8 now!
Thank you, THT Elop, for betting the Nokia farm on a stopgap OS, which you knew. And for destroying all escape routes. Thank you very much.
And for giving MS the technology to make WP8. For free. Thank you very much. SB.

Meanwhile, comparisons to iOS or Android are ludicrous.
If I have an old iOS or Android phone, most apps will work even with a previous OS release.
With WP8, new apps will not run on WP7. It is a total shift, new kernel, etc. etc.
New apps won't work not because of the HW, but because of the SW changes themselves.

Why did this happen? Because MS is years behind the competition, and just barely catching up now.
And their catching up involved a two stage approach:
1) develop the UX (but reusing the obsolete Win CE kernel because they had no time to develop a new one)
2) complete the transition adopting the new W8 kernel

Menwhile the live Surface Windows 8 crash goes viral. Lol.

OK. For WP7, damage to consumers was not too great, because luckily only few were fooled to believe WP7 was actually a good platform.
Yet the problem is MS and Nokia lied to its partners and to the few customers who bought WP7 based on the false representations on the quality and potential of their products.
Believe me: screwed customers and partners won't feel good.

MS and Nokia better hope W8, W8 RT and WP8 are relatively on time and bug free when they come out.
Expectations are high and many will not choose them given past mistakes and screwing habits by MS.
Most likely however, all the 8s will be full of bugs because of the need to rush them to the market in time for the holiday season.
Yet, MS will deliver, since it is accustomed to treating its customers as free beta testers.
The question: will it work also in a space where MS is not the monopolist? We'll see.

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