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« Brief Commentary on Today's Nokia Bad News Day (updated 3x) | Main | News Update Only, Blogs Coming Soon »

June 15, 2012

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Rajive Acharya

What a coincidence


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/itslideshow/14151500.cms

Olavi Petri

Just a small nitpick: Please don't insult Linus Torvalds by making such comparisons. He is much better than that. He has done only good and is not / has not been involved in any illegal or criminal activities nor has a history of behavior to be ashamed of.

m

> I think Elop lost his credibility yesterday.

I think this is unfair to Mr. Elop. How can he be blamed for losing something he never gained in the first place?


> now Nokia tells us that even Q3 will be unprofitable

Of course it will. No one wants a WP7 phone now on a 2-year contract when the next version is due out in a few months. It's the Osborne effect AGAIN. Elop makes an even stronger commitment to another completely unproven OS that won't provide sales until 2 or 3 quarters down the road. Meanwhile each of the interim quarters involve burning piles and piles of cash.

svensson

Thanx for a another good read Tomi, going hard at Elop with every right.
To me it is obvious Elop is working for Microsoft's best interests and not Nokia's. He has now effectively burned all the bridges, it's Windows or death for Nokia from now on. No plan B, no exit strategy, just biased politics that will cost a lot of people their jobs, and eventual demise of Nokia.

Nelson

I just can't believe the complacency of the board of directors. Honestly, where the hell is the board?! Almost 2 years ago OPK was fired because he wasn't able to execute (and as Tomi suggested the price cuts to gain market share), now Elop jeopardizes the entire corporation and no one does a thing to stop him... Insane!

I do believe that even with OPK, Nokia would be successful with the Symbian, Meltemi, MeeGo, Qt, strategy, it was just a matter of time. If Nokia kept selling Symbian S60 phones successfully during 2009 and 2010, I do believe that they would be able to sell Symbian belle phones and MeeGo phones in the present. It was a transition from a company specialized in hardware with some competences in software to a company heavily dependent on both software and hardware, this transitions are never easy. But as Tomi said before, even during this transition Nokia kept being profitable...

QtFan

"HTC seemed largely focused on Windows Phones last fall, which may not have made a big splash; the company's high-profile trio of One phones running Android have only just arrived on the market."
http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/06/samsung-ships-43-million-smartphones-in-q1-dwarfs-htc-and-motorola

HTC had a big drop in sales, apparently for focusing on launching WinPho models. Haha.

n900lover

Nelson:

I think at this point, the board of directors are partners in crime, so to speak. They would first need to admit that they approved all his idiotic moves and fire themselves right after kicking out Elop. Which obviously isn't going to happen.

QtFan

Another quote from ArsTechnica
"Nokia, which largely gave up on its feature phone business and Symbian handsets to focus on smartphones and the Windows Phone platform with handsets like the Lumia 900, saw a 40 percent decline, with 11.9 million smartphones shipped in Q1."

So 30% drop for HTC and 40% for Nokia. WinPho is associated with the two biggest drops.

QtFan

Elop: "The challenge in all of this is breaking through the strength Android and Apple have in a retail environment, we aren’t getting the traction we prefer."

WTF! MS bet a lot in Nokia to use its strong retail presence to make WinPho successful. And now Nokia's weakness is retail?!?!

N9

Microsoft must suffer from really nasty sexually transmitted hilliness, go with Microsoft to bed and die soon after....

PlatformWarrior

Stupid management is destroying Nokia. One could write a book about stupid decisions during the last 7 years made by Nokia management. The most stupid is the board, who is approving the stupid strategy. Yes, MS can make a third ecosystem. Yes, MS can beat again Apple in the platform wars as it did in early 90's. But it won't happen in next 2 years. It was pure stupidity to make a decision to switch totally to MS platform in Feb 2011 and kill the milking cow Symbian at that point. It was pure stupidity to stay out from Android market and let Samsung take the high end Android market. It is pure stupidity to kill Meltemi and let Samsung take the low end market with Bada.

Malcolm Williams

Just one minor gripe - the HTC situation is surprisingly sadder than you realize.
While HTC says they will keep churning out Windows Phones, the situation has been strained to say the least. In part, it is because of Microsoft literally dissing HTC at every single turn. Chou has some interest in Windows Phone and Windows 8, but Microsoft denied HTC the ability to make tablets. When HTC was one of the few OEMs that made a very good tablet in the HTC Shift that even runs Windows 8 and can dual boot Windows Mobile.

The ironic thing about Nokia is the way Elop is going about it. A very big change to Nokia since Elop has been an ability to create devices specific to the emerging market region. From India, to Africa, to China, the experience wasn't necessarily the same. Neither was the device. Another huge flaw is pawning Windows Phones that are made for typical western consumption in high end markets and trying to pocket it in emerging countries that surpass a western definition of product.

The truly unique thing I can say about Nokia of past (even in direct observation) is this insane ability to mold their product depending on region and even use region services that mostly worked. That hasn't occurred with the Lumia line. Now in a lesser extent, one can say, well the Lumia 900 did that because it was an "American" phone (remember that's how it was billed last year). But the problem is the Lumia 610 is not a phone for international users taht demand a unique experience that isn't too expensive, yet works.

The more and more I read of Elop, the more I have to wonder, what are you smoking? And I can't say that I know much about the new hires except Chris Weber, who seems to be a relatively nice guy. I don't think he is good for phones because he lacks experience in sales. He, like Elop, can spin things very well, but I don't think he will smooth the relationship with OEMs/carriers because Elop and Microsoft are not.

It's funny that next week is a big week for windows phone and I will cover some of the news. But in the back of my mind, it is as if I am walking another nightmare of Palm in new clothing. Where the risks are even greater.

As I said on twitter, my heart bleeds for the news and I am in hope the people fired do get some form of work from another company that can utilize their talents.

Dangerous (more dangerous) times for Nokia ahead. It's funny, I initially thought Tomi Ahonen was so wrong, but he's proven time and time again he's been right. Kudos

The_Four_Freedoms

There MUST be a claim for corporate negligence looming over Elop and the Nokia Board by now.
No CEO could ever justify the wanton destruction of a business and losses of this epic scale with no credible management of the risks being demonstrated.
Unfortunately this is clearly the end of the road for Nokia, as there is now no possibility of recovering the Meego or Meltimi product lines.
The whole Nokia Board deserve some very long jail sentences.

RyanZA

It's no wonder that Nokia expects worse sales this and next quarter - the current Win Phone 7 devices probably won't be upgraded to Windows 8/Win Phone 8 when it is released in Q4 or so. It's the exact same problem they had with Symbian last year and they're now repeating it! The sheer stupidity is truly overwhelming and at this point they deserve what they get.

I'm guessing when it becomes obvious new phones won't be upgraded, Nokia smartphone sales are going to drop to an actual zero. Even if they are going to be upgraded, too long without official word of upgrades is going to have the same effect. I think 2% market share is incredibly optimistic at this rate.. haha.

Titanium

Like many I've instantly understood that the partnership with MS was very bad. Like all I haven't tougth that it would be so much bad, to the point that there's no hope now. I'm very sad.
How was it possible? I really can't believe that such a big destruction could be done openly and no one stops him.

morgan

Here is a question...

Lets pretend that Nokia's board is awake and trying to get Elop out and someone else in to turn the ship around...

1. Who could accomplish this task?
2. Would a person of such caliber even open an email that came from Nokia?

I am sorry Tomi, but i think it is time for you to start ramping up your expertise on another handset OEM, because covering Nokia is now a short term job.

Leading Analyst

Tomi, I enjoy your analytic posts but you occasionally go way over your head.

- You made a statement (on TV) that the Scalado purchase is a slap to the face of Carl Zeiss. Carl Zeiss makes camera optics, but Scalado develops image processing SW. There is no conflict. Scalado's technology has been licenced by Symbian already back in 2008.
- Niklas Savander has a long Nokia career, but have you checked his track record? He has been in lead position of several key functions that have all gone totally south (Nokia ES, S60, Services, Markets). He is exactly the kind of legacy that Nokia needs to get rid of in order to renew its ability to innovate. Same goes to Mary McDowell. They have nothing positive to show for the last 5 years, if you look behind the numbers.
- You praise MeeGo. I have tried it, and the 1st use experience is simply awful. Worse than Symbian and miles behind WP. As a native Linux it is very open and powerful for the hard core nerds, but that represents only 0,0001% of the users. A platform that cannot properly integrate with the leading service platforms (for exp. Google) is a dead horse.
- You or anyone of us do not know exactly what the Meltemi was, or what it might have been capable of. You are guessing. Moore's law takes care of the decreasing price points for all smartphone platforms. Today's low end is yesterdays high end. Hell the latest Asha model has a 1gHz CPU to give it oomph.

Yes a lot of things have gone wrong and huge mistakes are made, the Burning Platform being the worst of all. Nokia is beaten to the ropes, and its faith is in the hands of Microsoft - that is a fact. However, nobody can deny the fact that Nokia Lumias offer a nice user experience.

Tomi T Ahonen

Wow, lots of comments, let me try in short parts

Hi Rajive, Olavi, M, svensson, Nelsson, QtFan

Rajive - haha, perfect yes, thanks for the link.

Olavi - it wasn't my intention to in any way suggest Linus was a hacker. I hope that didn't come across. He is a hero of mine, and I am 100% in favor of open source.

m - haha on Elop. As to anotehr Osborne.. yeah. I'd say its a kind of stealth-Osborne as they've tried to be very coy about the upgrade/non upgrade but obviously there won't be an upgrade path. That will piss of this generation of 'converts' from Symbian to Windows. They will not go to Win 8 but will detest both Nokia and Microsoft

svensson - yeah, we agree. I am now starting to think, if Nokia will be sold, at least it should get good value and arrive at good new owner(s). Hence even now, the continued damage makes things worse down the line

Nelson - you're right and obviously I agree. Even for his mistakes and poor management and poor communication skills, OPK would have steered Nokia to (slight) profits and something above 30% market share in both smartphones and dumbphones - safely far bigger than Samsung in either (or iPhone and others)

Qt Fan - ouch yes..

Thank you all for comments, keep them coming, I'll return with more responses

Tomi Ahonen :-)

N9

@Leading Analyst "I have tried it, and the 1st use experience is simply awful. Worse than Symbian and miles behind WP"

And with that you lose all credibility you might want to have...
I have several N9's I also have and pretty much one of each other main phone OS's devices... UX designer of mobile apps....
The UI/UX experience on the n9 is a strike of genius, cant help to try to close all apps with a swipe and open the screen with double tap in all devices.

You are probably talking about the n900 that was indeed a geek phone... The N9 no.

AJ

Terve!

Why the tide may turn...for Nokia. There appears to be a patent alliance (albeit a secret alliance) between M$ and Apple where each are not suing each other. Instead they are concentrating fire on Android. Meanwhile Nokia and M$ have a declared alliance. The patent destruction of Android benefits Nokia as they will be selling Win phones which are protected from Apple and M$ patents. Already HTC and Samsung are having trouble at both the U.S. ITC and civil courts. Your analysis can't be complete without discussing patents their costs and potential injunctions

Kenny

Leading Analyst said, "You praise MeeGo. I have tried it, and the 1st use experience is simply awful." and "However, nobody can deny the fact that Nokia Lumias offer a nice user experience".

Switch MeeGo and Lumia in the above descriptions, Leading Analyst and you would have got it right. I have a N9 and swipe UI and multitasking is simply delightful. Meanwhile I've been hanging around WP forums and it tells a different story. Besides the many restrictions and limitations of the WP7.5 OS, Lumia users have a particularly horrid experience due to the innumerable hardware defects and firmware bugs. The Lumia is a rushed product and it shows.

bjarneh

There are two sides to every story, as much as this looks like a failed OS switch on Nokias part, it may just be the best attempt at stopping Linux as the dominant mobile OS ever made. Very soon the dominant mobile OS, will in fact be THE dominant OS as smart-phones will dominate the desktop pretty soon.

As a free software enthusiast this annoys me quite a bit, but it is hardly surprising. Microsoft and other companies who make their living from proprietary infrastructure will fight free infrastructure like Linux. FreeBSD/OpenBSD and other BSD projects will be exploited or left alone, the GPL makes this exploitation impossible, this is the threat.

MeeGo and its sister project Meltemi cannot be killed by such tactics, the code is free, and thousands of free software developers have been stepped on, they will not forgive nor forget. Nokia can take away their salary but not their pride, this is a game they cannot win. It may look easy for a big company to squash a group of free software developers, but history tells a different story.

eduardo

Tomi, do you think the abandonment of Meltemi will have any effect on who might buy Nokia?

cycnus

Tomi,

I wonder if you're blood is also blue... LOL

I think Elop is a coward, liar, and criminal.

A coward... because if he really think Meltemi should die, he should done that in Feb 2011, so it won't burn nokia cash....

It's really sad to see Meltemi die, if OPK still around, or Ansi Vanjoki lead nokia, Meltemi - Meego would really kick ass.

Allan83

Hi Tomi! Hope you read this comment of mine. I changed the name of both person to protect them from other people. I found a blog site that pertains to Windows phone and Android and found a comment. A comment from what he calls himself a Nokia employee and an interested blogger to the future of Nokia

Nokia Employee: Shave

This

"I don’t think it was just a decision that Nokia’s board or Elop made, but one that was influenced by the whole culture of the company. Many Nokia employees probably couldn’t see themselves using Android. I guess that feeling was worth more to them than saving the company in a practical manner."

is an utter insult.

Since when do the EMPLOYEES of an international corp have ANY influence on the strategy or wahtsoever.
What are you smoking?

I am a Nokia employee and i do not know one colleague who had influence in this OR would have thought it is a good idea and support such nonsense.

MS was never a favorite in the "NOKIA culture".
vice versa ... always proud to deliver an OS developed in Europe as a choice.


Interested blogger: art83

Shave if you are really are a Nokia employee then answer this question truthfully and without fear. What do you think will be the saving grace for Nokia is it the Meego Harmattan, Windows Phone or The latest Iterations of Symbian?


Nokia employee: Shave

Meego / Symbian, but never Windows Phone.

No Nokia employee admire Microsoft, because of their bad culture or gene. They are simply killing Nokia by injecting Elop (a MSFT employee) into our Nokia.

But, I also agree that Meego / Symbian cannot compete with Android in long run. But, our CEO must have continued them as they are in demand and slowly introduce Android and WP phones as well, just like how Samsung operates. But, this is not possible in our Nokia because of Elop, a Microsoft mad virus.

After that end of comment conversation.

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