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« Massive Milestones in Mobile - Will These Numbers Change Your Mobile Strategy? | Main | Paging Stats Police - no, IDC, not even close! No! Windows Phone will not pass iPhone by 2016 »

June 06, 2012

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Tomifan

Tomi:
You have repeatedly said Nokia was increasing it's market share at end of 2010 (the main thing why Burning Platform memo made no sense).
Why in your graph Nokia marketshare decreases from 2009 to 2010 to 2011?

Tomi T Ahonen

Tomifan, I didn't say Nokia was increasing market share, I said Nokia was increasing unit sales. The market share was in decline, as I have said many many times. But after Stephen Elop took charge of Nokia, in the last quarter of 2010 ie Q4, yes, the unit sales of Nokia branded smartphones stopped declining, they grew. Nokia average sales prices stopped declining, they grew. Nokia revenues of its smartphone unit stopped declining, they grew. And Nokia total profits of its smartphone unit stopped declining, they grew.

Thanks

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cycnus

Tomi,

You said RIM in trouble and Nokia is dead.
So, do you think Nokia will dead before RIM?
It seems to me that RIM would be dead before Nokia.

john

How about Windows 8? Microsoft will use it in everything from desktop pcs to cell phones. Some of those desktop are in fact just tablets. How will we distinguish the numbers from desktop sales from cell phones sales and other mobile devices?

AI

RIM will not die, it will get acquired, NOK will go out of business. Problem with Nokia is money losing NSN.

john

I think that you're under estimating the power of Microsoft as a criminal organization (they will do everything they can, including breaking the law) to win and the power of its brand among computer-and-electronic-gadgets ignorant people. For all purposes, all around the world, Windows=PCs (desktops, notebooks, laptops, netbooks) plus Office. Nothing else matters.

The ignorant and the fanatic (as fanatic as Apple's cult following but in much bigger numbers) are waiting for their "drug".

Microsoft will be as successful in that segment of the market as it was in the previous.

Linux had one year or more lead in netbook market, but as soon as Microsoft arrived they completely dominated the market and now Linux is nowhere to be seen.

Nokia might be dead, but Microsoft is not.

CN

IDC seems to agree with Tomi with that WP is not going to be the third ecosystem. It will be 2nd. ;-)

http://www.cbronline.com/news/report-nokia-windows-phone-to-be-number-2-smartphone-os-by-2016-06-06-2012

And they have also revised the former forecast. Not 21% in 2015, but 19% in 2016.

Seriously, how can opinions differ this much?

ejvictor

June 1st Comscore top mobile platforms 3 month avg. 3 month Jan 2012 vs. April 2012.
Total US Smartphone subscribers ages 13+
Microsoft
January -12 4.4%
April -12 4.0%
Point changes - .4

Lumia 900....Still not winning!

CN

@ejvictor

Don't blame Lumia 900 for that. It wasn't available in US until April.

cycnus

@AI

But nokia still have their dumb phone division... I mean feature phone division

Tomifan

@cycnus
They have indeed feature phone division. And I think we have all reason to call it "rich feature" phone division:
http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/06/06/have-a-touch-nokias-new-asha-phones/

@Tomi
I think Asha 311 just beat Lumia 610 in both price and amount of features (you covered some feature differences between Nokia S40 and Lumia in your recent post, remember?)
Perhaps a next a blog post named "When You Let Nokia Be Nokia (part 2) - The featurephone when CEO Elop does not meddle?"

Tomifan

Oh, almost forgot:
About every news I seen so far (Nokia's own and ohers) say "Swipe" UI for Asha 311.
Packed with 1GHz processor, the Swipe UI you Tomi like so much...
...close to 100 euro price point...
It's incredible!

JustMe

@CN
IDC seems to be on the pay-book of Micro$oft.
Check this one:
http://www.crn.in/Software-001Jun010-Will-2011-Be-The-Year-Windows-Phone-7-Booms.aspx

khim

It's not known if IDC is paid by Microsoft. What IS known is the fact that IDC changes it's articles when Microsoft asks for such changes.

See here, for example: http://iowa.gotthefacts.org/011607/9000/PX09275.pdf , note "IDC is more then willing to make any changes we suggest" line.

IDC can not be trusted WRT Microsoft, plain and simple.

CN

@ JustMe & khim

I'm only asking how can we have two such different opinions.

I read the email. Not sure if you have ever dealt with analysts, but somehow it looks to me you haven't. Just for the record, I had a meeting with IDC today, talking about industry related things. I find nothing strange in their behaviour. And then again, we don't know yet who's right, or what?

bl0wf1sh

@JustMe, I am really unsure where IDC get their projections from... they seem to be made only of hot air. Only if WP8 were radically different from WP7 (more appealing and functional, as opposed to ugly and restricted), which by the looks of it won't be the case.

Kenny

Here's an interesting article on the current low value of Nokia stock on the NYSE.

Pain Unites Nokia and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Shareholders
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Pain-Unites-Nokia-and-Green-Mountain-Coffee-Roasters-Shareholders-GMCR-F-NOK/s/via/3420/article/view/p/mid/1/id/913/

Essentially the author says that Nokia's stock price is low because small cap investors can see how its product (Lumia 900) is selling at retail outlets.

Couldn't agree more. Lumia 900 is not selling well in U.S. and suffers from extremely high return rates due to manufacturing and firmware defects. Interest in Lumia has fallen off in Europe, it has failed to gain traction in Russia, China, India and the rest of Asia, sales in the Southern hemisphere including Oz and NZ is negligible so where else can Lumia succeed? The U.S. is really Nokia's Last Stand and it's game over.

Tomifan

@Tomi
Do a comparison on Nokia's own site:
http://www.nokia.com/global/products/compare/?action=productcompareaction&products=1448214-1479106&site=152798&operation=show
It'll give good stuff on "Hardware", "communications" and "Music and Audio" sections. Embarassing to more expensive Lumia, really.

zlutor

@LeeBase: "But they don't, they never have had anything like Apple's cash." - true. But Nokia has 'something like Microsoft's cash" in the worst case... :-)

M$ just will not let Nokia die. At least until WP platform gets some traction - otherwise their dreams in mobile segment is over. WP would be threated like plague then.

Anyway, the Nokia we have known it - gone. It is a different company...

RobDK

I for one will be cheering as Microsofts mobile strategy fails miserably. It is a shame that Nokia got dragged down by it. Good riddance to Microsoft - 30 years of illegal business practices is at last unravelling. No one 'wants' Windows. It was stuffed down our throats by employers. In the consumer market, 'Windows' equates with 'virus', 'infections', 'non-user friendly', etc, etc. Of course no one is going to buy a Windows phone with these connotations!

Louis

@Tomi: "What Apple needs very soon, is to split its model range or it will soon be an also-ran."

Apple continues to grow market share (slowly), unit sales (quickly), and profit (crazy fast). Do you have any justification for this statement at all?

Apple is even moving the iPhone into the US prepaid market http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/05/31/leap-wireless-unit-to-offer-pre-paid-apple-iphone-june-22/ which seems to blow up the theory that it is overly dependent on operators. (The truth is the other way around.)

Louis

@CN: "Seriously, how can opinions differ this much?"

Either they are high at IDC, trolling, or they have a model that says something like "In its equilibrium state, the market has Windows and Nokia as volume leaders, so over time it will revert to this state." I have no idea why anybody would think this.

However, it is not far off from: "What Apple needs very soon, is to split its model range or it will soon be an also-ran."

This also has a model, which is that all the profit naturally accumulates to the operators, who are also nice enough to reward the volume-leading "terminal" manufacturer. I am not sure why anybody thinks this is true any more either.

Alex

Thank you Tomi for the charts. If Symbian was considered a burning platform by Elop, what kind of platform is Windows phone now if the same criteria are used? I am lacking words for this. Today in an Austrian Newspaper (though nothing official, unnamed sources from Microsoft and Nokia): no update for current Windows phone to 8.0.

http://blog.wiwo.de/look-at-it/2012/06/06/exklusiv-microsoft-plant-losung-fur-update-problem-bei-windows-phone/

If this is true and official, I am pretty sure you can lower your even low forcasts for Nokia for end 2012. Nokia is doomed, I cannot see a turning point for them anymore.

Best,
Alex

P910i ...

The most interesting question to me is if Bada/Tizen (pushed by Samsung and Intel) can establish itself as a "3rd ecosystem"?

Not sure if RIM can re-invent itself to "appeal" to a smaller (again more business oriented?) target market?

Symbian still has the potential to remain "relevant" beyond 2016, but this would require a radical change in strategy at Nokia. This is something they probably would only try as a last ditch effort to save the company after having ditched Elop. This window of opportunity seems to be closing fast, however. By the end of 2012 it might be way to late to reverse the course.

WP with MS's marketing muscle behind seems to be "on track" to gain marketshare in certain key markets (US, Germany, ...) but at a high financial cost (i.e. the return-on-investment for everyone involved might remain negative for several more years).

cycnus

@zlutor

"M$ just will not let Nokia die. At least until WP platform gets some traction - otherwise their dreams in mobile segment is over. WP would be threated like plague then."

I don't think so. If you look a comment by MS and also by their 'employee' baron95, you'll see they was saying 'MS were good in software, and Nokia were good in hardware. This is the marriage in heaven'. But after Tomi point out weak Lumia sales, skype boycott, and elop admiting skype boycot, baron95 change their tone to Nokia hardware were bad, that's why lumia were not sales as good as it should be.

My point is, at one point MS will dump nokia and let it die alone, and find some other company. Presumable any notebook manufacture that make a Windows 8 and also in phone business such as HP, samsung, Acer, Asus, Lenovo.

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