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« What Happens Now to Nokia Lumia and Windows Phone, After Microsoft Throws Nokia Under the Bus? (Updated) | Main | Congratulations Mike Short for CBE Honours at Queens Birthday in UK - here his Foreword to my 3rd book »

June 27, 2012

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J.O. Aho

Tomi, are you sure Samsung will still push out Bada units? Maybe it's my search engine skills lacking me, but it don't feel there been anything new since 2011 (except the sdk 2.0 release) and some media has hinted that Tizen would be replacing Bada.

Even if microsoft has been out saying they will not make their own cellphone, I think they still may working on one which they would release in for Christmas, if this happens, what kind of damage do you think it would cause Nokia?

Spawn

As usual great work Tomi! That means we can expect Nokia to fire Elop and change strategy end of this year latest. Shareholders should worry and put more pressure on Nokia to end this earlier.

Dipankar Mitra

Tomi, I think your revised forecast is still a bit optimistic. Can Lumia really go from 2 million to 4 million in Q2 2012? Well, maybe it can, but I would be surprised if it does.

Jujim

3.1 millions Lumia in Q3? With no new Lumia to hype the market?I think you are being kind to Nokia.

Lasko

"That means we can expect Nokia to fire Elop and change strategy end of this year latest. Shareholders should worry and put more pressure on Nokia to end this earlier."

Don't bet on sharesholders; they no longer care. NYSE:NOK -80%, soon to fall below 2$. Enough pressure?
Don't bet on the board either; whose orders do you think is Elop executing?

Kenny

I think Tomi is being too optimistic for Q2 and Q3. As for Q4, 5 million Lumia is unattainable even if Nokia does manage to come out with 2 WP8 phones.

Kenny's forecast
Q2 '2012 - 3 million Lumia
Q3 ' 2012 - 1 million Lumia
Q4 '2012 - 3 million Lumia*

*subject to Nokia releasing WP8 phones before Christmas.
The above may be freely shared :-)

Lasko

@ExNokian
Of course you will have to revisit projections when conditions change. That's what every analyst does, that's what every rating agency does, that's what every counsellor does.

When your own CEO unexpectedly osbornes your complete product line-up you will have to revise projections, when your partner CEO unexpectedly osbornes your complete product line-up you will have to revise projections, when your partner unexpectedly decides to compete with your costumers you will have to revise projections.

You still can decide to not too - which will result in completely abstruse and worthless projections like we had from IDC.

I have to disagree with Tomi Ahonen as well in certain assumptions, but your feud takes on a ridicoulous scale.

BurntByAMemo

From 30% to 2% in 2 years and what is the board doing? Fishy! Fishy :-O

TomoTomo

I hope Nokia stock goes under two dollars soon.

Mr. PRESIDENT OF COMMUNICATIONS, MR. "POOP PANTS POPE", how it feels now when Nokia is crumbling...

How it feels to be free as a ROLLING STONE, WITH NO COMPANY TO RETURN TO !!!

khim

@ExNokian I just don't want to read Tomi saying "I predicted this already in 2011!!!!!!" and refer to this article:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/07/stephen-elop-costs-nokia-10-million-dollars-more-of-lost-profit-every-day-he-stays-with-nokia.html

Wow! Just how low can you go? Yes, Tomi adjusted it's forecast in 2011 - so what? YOU refer to this article, not Tomi. Tomi links to OTHER article which was written few days after February 11 and which ALREADY predicts aforementioned 12% market share for the end of Y2011: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/when-things-get-even-worse-than-you-thought-1st-preview-of-potential-for-nokia-microsoft-partnership.html

I don't know why you feel the need to falsify facts but this does not make you messages more believable.

Tomi does not always admit and discusses his past errors (for example his spectacular failure of prediction in December of 2009 when he said "The Android based smartphones are, and will absolutely definitely be for at least the next year 2010, a smaller niche smartphone segment, than even the iPhone") but this is just usual human vanity: we all like to recall our successes and don't like to recall our failures. What you are saying instead if that Tomi lies to us - and this is factually incorrect.

Lasko

@ExNokian
Well, but he was absolutely right in what he said: Elop is a huge burden to Nokia and he will continue to damage Nokia.

Osborne of existing product line-up: direct effect from Elop.
Osborne of existing product line-up again: direct effect from Elop due to excusive Windows Phone strategy.
Deterioration of carrier relationships: direct effect from Elop due to Microsoft strategy.
Lumia marketing and launch disaster: direct effect from Elop due to rushing due to osborning existing prodcut line-up.
Consecutive downgrades, stock collapse, cash burning and impending liquidity problems: direct effect from Elop due to previous effects.

So with the moronic decisions made one could anticipate that ELop will keep wreaking havoc. And he did.

@don_afrim

If this isn't a deliberate destruction of Nokia by some powerful people then I don't know what is!

Anyone with a right mind knows that keeping this strategy is fatal.

Tona Aspsusa

Thanks for an interesting blog - which I read purely for entertainment, as I'm not either an investor or a techie. I first found you about a year ago, I don't really remember why or how.

At that time I was in dire need of a new smartphone, and wondering why Nokia had so totally disappeared from my radar - even though I live in Finland, and my phones 1996-2005 were all Nokias.
Your blog gave me the explanations and reasons for why since my first touchscreen (Palm Treo 650!) there never was a Nokia on the market that enticed me, and why there probably never would be.

It is indeed a sad story. It was a saddish story in the years before Elop, and the last years have been a tragedy.
My early-adopter techie friends who go through phones like a teenager through H&M clothes got briefly enthusiastic about Maemo and Meego - but then Elop made sure there would be no follow-up. Nokia is just dead dead dead wrt smartphones.

But "featurephones" - Tomi, could you please write a bit more about those? Is that part of Nokia also now killed off for good? Why? How could anyone be so stupid?
(I still a year or so ago spied OLD (early noughties 6000-series) Nokias in use in taxis in Germany. Why? Probably because of good build-quality, dependability. And it is only a year since my mother consented to give up her 5210 for a newer phone.)

This is a bit off-topic for this post, but reading through your last few posts and all the comments over the last days, I've been thinking more and more about what Nokia _could have_ done with and for the "emerging world".
The roots, GSM-out-of-NMT - good and usable phone (&SMS) functions for challenging environments - should actually be a strong asset when it comes to Africa, South America and less developed parts of Asia.
If non-techie people in Europe still love their very old Nokias, what would happen if you introduced the same build quality and usability in a more powerful format and with features and functions tailored to the developing and emerging world? You would of course have the low-end cheap but robust models, but you could also have more expensive but revolutionary models: GPS-tracking á la hunting dogs in Scandinavia for cattle herds in Africa is just one thing that springs to mind. (But the last few years whenever I read about interesting mobile phone based projects in Africa or SAmerica, it is almost always android-based systems, with no or very little (through SMS) integration with dumber phones.)

But somehow it seems that Nokia already many years ago forgot what once made it great, durability and innovative usability, and started chasing American gadget-reviewers instead. Apparently being hip was more important to BOD et al than making profits or a real difference in the lives of people around the world.

Zachariah Smith

One question mates I am a little confused here, it is said that the CEO "serves at the pleasure of the board."

But even with the board meeting that happened a while back, why did nobody fire elop? The board of directors cant be happy with this right?
Not nokia fan or anything, just wondering how he lasted so long, plus i could not google an answer..

Brock

Hi Tomi,

first thank you for the articles your writing about nokia...

i would like to know what you think about the future of the IP Pool of Nokia. If Nokia goes bankrupt soem time in the future, what do you think could happen with it. Would MS have soem kind of priority for buying it. or does the highest bet win?
I fear that apple could buy that pool and then apple would have the most powerfull pool of them all and could block a lot more phones from selling their products like they did the last months/years...
What do you think about this?
Thx!

Martin

I' have been reading Toni's blog for a while and I think he is very right about the situation of Nokia. Nokia is now an economical disaster, and that it another reason why customers wouldn't buy Nokia smartphones. People shy away from buying from companies that has economical problems.

And the end it is the board that is completely responsible for the current situation in Nokia (not Elop, he is just the piano man….) and it will be very interesting to see what they will do in the coming weeks.

The ironic, is that this time, Nokia is actually on a burning platform (WP 7.5) and they must do something urgent in Q3, else Nokia will be history at the beginning of 2013. Windows 8 will not save Nokia, it will be too late, because it will take more than a year before (or if) Windows 8 has an important position in the smartphone marked.

Aikon

I am not an expert in this field, but...
the most reasonable explanation for me is that board of directors somehow has more interest in Microsoft. Let say they have interest in both Microsoft and Nokia, but they believe that it will be better to try to lift Microsoft using Nokia instead of loose both of them. So, Nokia is just used to lift Microsoft up.
take a look here
http://ncomprod.nokia.com/about-nokia/corporate-governance/board-of-directors
most of the directors are from 2011 or so.

Aikon

or, may be, just may be, they doesn't give a s#it.
Let's take a look,... Helge Lund, President and CEO of Statoil ASA, Norwegian oil company. Does he need to worry about some No'kia?

Personally, I think that the fact that Stephen Elop didn't took his family to Finland was a bad bad sign.

KooolAid

If you take a look of Nokia BOD, nobody, absolutelty NOBODY of them is such a person who would call out the emperor who has no clothes.

NOT ONE of them is such a person who puts his ass in the line to defend justice or righteousness.

THERE IS NO ONE person who would know MORE THAN ZERO about technology behind telecommunications, technology behind consumer electronics, technology about software engineering.

SAD BUNCH OF PEOPLE.

Aikon

Can Toni or someone else explain how the Board of Directors is set together? Who are real persons who set current members of board in charge? How all these stuff works?

vladkr

I recently read the article "Exhausting week for Nokia CEO" in Helsingin Sanomat (http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Exhausting+week+for+Nokia+CEO/1329104336880)

I can't understand how a person, who is paid millions of euros can't face his mistakes. Actually, since I follow Elop's history at Nokia, I never saw any mea-culpa. All bad decisions that could be made were taken by Elop :
- exclusive partnership with unliked MS
- blocus on N9 and now on 808 pureview
- closure of factories (Lumia are made by Compal, featurephone are made in India by Fly mobile... what is being manufactured by Nokia now?)
- Sales of family jewellery : Vertu, Patents, business units
- Firing engineers and workers, keeping (hiring) managers; managers usually don't produce anything.

And that's not to mention lies. To me, Nokia is dead (my recent experience in Russia definitely convinced me... although I didn't really need to) and artificially maintained alive.

I would add that what's happening now to Nokia right now, is what may happen to MS; remember one thing : during the golden 90s, people had no choice. Cheap windows or expensive mac. Now world changed : people prefer use "one click-started" tablets or perpetually on smartphones for internet/FB/Twitter than wait 30seconds+ to start their windows powered computer... people have choice now.

foo

"The ironic, is that this time, Nokia is actually on a burning platform (WP 7.5)"

LOL

Elop conducted Nokia from a burning platform to the other!

cycnus

Tomi,

I was wondering if you already see this nokia ads on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJZW97c4uvw
there were symbian/meego tablet in the ads?

Asko

@Aikon

Board of Directors is proposed by selection committee and approved by the shareholders at the general meeting. The selection committee is composed from board of directors. If I remember right it is three persons committee at Nokia.

Actually the 'real' shareholders don't have anything to say to it because large American institutional shareholders who don't care anything about Nokia will approve anything that board or directors or selection committee suggest. The large American institutional shareholders have the majority of shares and votes. So in practice the board of directors itself selects the new members to the board.

At the last general meeting small shareholders didn't want Elop to be in the board of directors so that board of directors could properly supervise Elop but they were voted down by the large shareholders.

KPOM

Symbian was unsustainable, and MeeGo wasn't ready. I think it was worth a shot to try Windows Phone in the US, where Nokia had nothing to lose. However, it shouldn't have been an all-or-nothing affair. Android also would have been the safer bet.

I still think, no matter what, the seeds of Nokia's fall were sown in 2009 and 2010. Samsung's rise began in late 2009, and really picked up steam after Nokia's "burning platform" announcement last February, as well as the release of the Galaxy S2 last April. Now with the Galaxy S3 they have an iPhone-type hit on their hands. Nokia would still have been up against that even if they executed their strategy perfectly. OPK should have considered Android for the US market in 2009 instead of giving lip service to North America and insisting that Symbian would sell. If they stumbled upon a hit Android device in the US, perhaps they could have rolled that out worldwide rather than waste their time with MeeGo and later Windows Phone.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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