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« My Presentation from ICT Doha on 3G and Mobile Future for Middle East | Main | Massive Milestones in Mobile - Will These Numbers Change Your Mobile Strategy? »

May 31, 2012

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ds

Tomi the repeated claim on your blog is that mobile (meaning GSM enabled devices) have been making a triumphant convergence run is subsuming one branch of consumer electronics after another. But given troubles of traditional mobile companies couldn't one admit that ultimately mobile itself is now being subsumed by portable computing?

Antoine RJ Wright

The present is mobile, the future is...

I don't disagree with you that mobile is and continues to be a calling card to change things. But really, those who have been mapping things and have already moved in the direction of mobile (as media channel, as platform, or even as enabler to other stamps) have already drawn lines in the sand. Not to say that there isn't more that can be discovered within mobile, but that much of what an be done, is already in the works. Hence, mobile is present.

The future is disruptive.

I picture two trends for mobile and those working in and around it; mobile will become the biggest distraction, and therefore ability nd monetization would be gained by how much time is spent in mobile (games, payments, and publications already here). Or, mobile adds time, actually creating opportunity for other channels and opportunities to become evident (health, education, payments, etc. are here - or at least should be). When mobile is utilized like the wand that it is, this is the result... a two-sided disruption.

Beyond that... well, innovators disrupt themselves before letting something else do it ;)

bjarneh

> But the internet did not change 'everything'.

The internet gave us access to the collective knowledge of mankind. It gave us a way to say whatever we want, to whomever we want with no censorship organ (well not in Denmark, Iran, China etc.). The cost of spreading your message (publishing) is almost zero, this is why newspapers are struggling, it has nothing to do with the lack of an iPad version.

People who take advantage of this opportunity and publish information for others to read are typically skilled in their topic of choice, much more so than journalists who cover dozens of topics.

With no censorship organ as well these stories are generally much more interesting, this blog is a testament to what I'm saying here :-)

No magazine or newspaper would allow you to write multiple articles so critical of Elops management skills, but you can say whatever you want on the internet.

The internet gave us freedom of speech, i.e. what democracy always promised but never really got around to. Most democracies are (of course) fighting the internet for this simple reason: Freedom of speech makes us much harder to rule.

> The farmer over next door in India doesn't need the internet to irrigate his farm.

But if he had access to the internet would he still use SMS-services?

Cke

Whether the big force moving forward is mobile (radio-connected comm gear) or portable connected multipurpose computing will become evident very shortly. The living room is about to become disrupted, TVs, stereo, gaming hardware will all turn over. It's not likely that big bulky single purpose boxes with many buttoned remote controls will be what replaces them. But if they do, then we can say mobile survives going forward. If instead portable connected computers with fast silicon and wireless datatransfer, great touch UI displays become central then the ascendancy of computing is sealed instead. For my part, I believe that mobile was just the latest industry to fall victim to computing's 40 year ongoing march along Moore's law.

Ben Eng

Famous last words from Lucent CEO Richard McGinn in 2000: "IP is not ready for prime time."

http://www.forbes.com/global/2000/0207/0303026a_print.html

PeterElgin

@tomi, just a remind, mobile is not the food, water and land, ppl can live without mobile but can not live without food/water/land

Tomifan

@Tomi
Good text about mobile. Interesting times indeed!
Yet I wouldn't make future predictions based on biofuels. The whole industry is under bad media coverage as there are constantly appearing cases where either:
-Biofuel is made out of edible material without overproduction of food to justify it.
-Biofuel farm is started by cutting down forest. The loss of CO2 absorption capacity of the old forest negates the biofuel production benefits for decades.
-It takes more than gallon of fuel (bio- or traditional) to produce gallon of biofuel. Goverment subsidies make it profitable, yet environmentally unethical.
Brazilian bioethanol is one of the few cases not to run into any of the three (CO2 load of starting a farm is negated in years instead of decades), so you picked a good example. Credit goes to you for that. But Brazil cannot produce fuel for whole world.

anti

How about health and pharmaceutical industry? Such are even more promising in the future.

Another simple question: If this blog rated as top power influencer in mobile, why is it so mobile unfriendly?

Steve

Awesome article Tomi... I wanted to add this one:


"You cant handle the truth"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hGvQtumNAY

Brian Daly

Tomi,
Interesting article as usual. As I thought about it I naturally considered my own field, music production. At this point music production, and music itself has been massively disrupted by the personal computer. (I wrote a blog post about it http://dnamusiclabs.com/harmonic-distortion/daw-and-end-time )

To a lesser extent music production has been disrupted by the Internet. But so far I dont see it being disrupted by "mobile" much, because it remains a complex authoring task that requires a minimum of interface to do. The iPad has some potential but the nature of the disruption is not different qualitatively from the PC. Essentially, while it is possible to priduce music a laptop on the go, it remains a compromised experience, and the process is not fundamentally enhanced by being mobile ( the opposite actually).

I think this quality is shared by other complicated creative processes done on the computer: media authoring/editing, CAD work, coding, legal work. I don't see how "mobile" will disrupt this kind of work beyond what has already happened with laptops and wifi. Famous last words, eh:)

cycnus

Taking about the future....
RIM crystal ball certainly broken...
Today, all news about RIM is bad news

Here's one of the news...
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/blackberry-maker-rim-pondering-a-deal-for-all-or-parts-of-the-company/articleshow/13698349.cms
.... "After rejecting the idea of a sale for months, Research in Motion acknowledged Tuesday that it was considering "strategic business model alternatives" - or in banker's speak, RIM, which makes the BlackBerry, said it was pondering a potential deal for all or parts of the company.".......

David Doherty

Hi Tomi, another great article. Just got to pick you up on one thing:

"Mining? Ok. I will grant you, many inside deep mines do not have much use for cellular mobile technology, as the cellular signal does not penetrate deep under ground"

Don't be so sure of this. Oil Rigs and remote mines were one of the big initial customers for vendors of those mini GSM base stations that talk over satellite link. It's been so successful that there are now efforts to educate the operators of mining machinery about the hazards of being distracted by your mobile while at work.

How could Tomi miss what happened during the collapse in Chile? Stuck underground for 69 days Samsung stepped in and sent them down the Samsung Galaxy Beam projector phone so they could watch the messages from politicians, families and friends (oh and catch the football friendly with Ukraine). They even got their health monitored during the ascent with bluetooth mHealth biosensors from Zephyr-Technologies.com!

Like all the other industries be in no doubt mining is also being revolutionised: mobiles are the canaries for miners in the 21st century!

Wayne Tarken

Tomi - Just curious about your view on mobile in developing markets where the data infrastructure is poor and won't support smartphones. Let alone the cost is a big chunk of their annual income. I'm assuming that sms is the only way to go for now. What about in the future?

notzed

Not that it's terribly important wrt the conclusion, but I don't think you're giving enough credit to previous decades.

The personal computer in the 80s was a massive revolution that changed the world. Entertainment, business, finance, education, agriculture, mining, communications, art, culture, ... can't have been much that wasn't affected in some way or another.

The 90s built on the previous, but in many ways was a bit of a lost decade. This is a direct result of allowing the wintel monopoly to dominate the landscape. What a huge cost to the world that turned out to be (and continues to be).

And the 00s was the commoditisation and commonisation[sic] of the internet - as revolutionary as the same for the mpu in the 80s but for information and commerce. Many of your examples are really about a new access mechanism to an existing infrastructure - i.e. the internet.

Mobile is obviously going to be a massive money making opportunity. But from a technological perspective it's just the next logical step from the digital miniaturisation started with the microprocessor in the mid 70s, and digital communication networks from not much later.

But mobile's success is also threatened by another favourite of monopoly abusers - patents - so we may just be going through another lost decade too. This type of greed and eye-pee abuse is the sort of crap that stunted the internet below it's potential. So far China is ignoring all that - and thus the current driving force to the truly mass-market devices - but we'll see if WIPO gets them under the thumb. And not to mention android owes a great debt to thousands of man-hours of work Google got for nothing.

PS Given the scale of operations, i'm pretty sure mobile is big for miners - if only as a mobile communication device. I have a couple of brothers in the industry and they were using mobile sat-phones over a decade ago - communications is vital (even a matter of life and death) since they're often working at the arse-end of no-where in rather trying conditions. Mining also has tons of money to throw at specialised rugged mobile devices that can and do take advantage of mobile networks if available, or satellites if not. Lucrative, but a bit niche.

noel

whatever the business you get for me i think that we must update our business and give him more credibility. this the most important thing. let's take an example of facebook. every 2 or 3 month, they add a new script or app on their platform. this is how business works.

Páginas Amarillas

The ending keynote at the event was given by my dear friend Ralph Simon, who didn't speak about mobile much, nor even about his focus area, the music industry (Ralph is most known inside the industry for his work with the MEF Mobile Entertainment Forum, and in his day job works as the mobile guru for such artists as Madonna, U2 and Lady Gaga). Ralph didn't talk about mobile and music yesterday. He talked about creativity.

breast actives

Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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