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May 16, 2012

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So Vatar

Tomi,
can you provide some background how you arrived at WP and MeeGo numbers for Q1? I understand we are looking at the minor leagues here (WP sales numbers are almost a rounding error compared to Android), but I can't find anywhere a conclusive report that shows WP sales in Q1 and MeeGo sales in Q1.
Of course I'd like to see MeeGo as comparatively successful (I use an N9 and I am very satisfied with the device), but it is hard to believe that in Q1 almost as many Nokia N9s were sold as handsets running WP (sold by Samsung, HTC, and Nokia).

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi So

Follow the link, there is the blog I explain why my guesstimate says that still in Q1 MeeGo outsold Nokia branded Windows Phone Lumia units (but clearly did not outsell all of Windows Phone by all makers). I think judging by how aggressively Elop has tried to kill and discredit MeeGo, that he has been unable to provide an actual number, is near certainty that up to Q1 MeeGo did outsell Lumia. I expect that to change now in Q2 and no doubt, we'll hear that from Nokia in Q2 results.

Cheers

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vladkr

Hi Tomi
Looking at these figures, can we can Nokia to become #4, just under RIM for Q2 ?

As Salo factory doesn't manufacture anything any more, and as the other surviving Nokia factories are busy with Asha, 1XX and 2XX and other low cost products, where will the N9 be manufactured ?

Actually, will they be manufactured, or is it just the stock that is being sold in the US (by the way, N9 was available in North America since the beginning through independent resellers)?

About carriers' demand for Symbian products, it seems confirmed by a fact I noticed and shared here some time ago; not only Canadian carriers keep on selling symbian phones, they offer even recent ones (such as videotron for instance.)

P.S. I finally found a demo Lumia 900 nearby; I can't tell if it's good or not, as it was put right next to a Galaxy Note and a Galaxy S2, which have way better screens (and made the Nokia almost invisible)... that's quite a bad way to promote the Lumia.

Earendil Star

Tomi, thanks for the update.

Looks like RIM is going to overtake Nokia in Q2. Ooops...

I start being really impressed by THT Elop's performance. I believe it must be unmatched in the history on any company since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.

Congrats, Stevie!

fritz

I'm a software developer, using Qt for Embedded Linux. I would love to buy the N950, but unfortunately this Microsoft mole refuses to sell me one. What can you say. The whole thing smells like plot by some big american investors. I wish someone would stop this canadian bastard and his gang. But unfortunately it looks like the case is lost. R.I.P. Nokia.


Eduardo

This is interesting:

"In pressure from European customers, Nokia’s board pressured CEO Steven Elop to back down and commit to further development in Belle. The company now has charted out Belle devices for at least the next three years. Belle platform development is also being spearheaded by software consulting giant Accenture."

www.phonenews.com/nokia-selling-n9-united-states-20341/

So maybe the BOD is finally coming to its senses, but I am guessing it is too late to save the company

Kenny

No, it's not true that the N9 is being quietly sold in the U.S. officially by Nokia. Fry is just bringing in the N9 on their own just as Amazon and Expansys have been doing all along. This means there will be no Nokia U.S. warranty for the N9. Fry appears to be bringing in the N9 as closing down sales as they used to do with other end of line products. Still, the price of US$599 shows the high value they put on the N9.

AsianAnalyst

Meanwhile, NYSE:NOK is currently trading at $2.80, fresh new 52-week low and back to the September, 1996 price.

bjarneh

i'm sad to say that the N9 is basically discontinued as of now; the source which says the N9 is begin sold in the US is clearly interpreting the facts in a biased way. there is no evidence to support US sales of this (great) phone.

Pappy

According to the bible, Egypt had ten plagues.
Water turned to blood, invasion of frogs, lice and locust-invasion etc...

For Finland - all that was needed was Elop.

Sammy

It's probably Fry's own decision to bring in the N9 to U.S. Prices of N9 have been cut elsewhere like closing down sales. But the news that the PureView 808 will be officially sold in the U.S. is true and confirmed by Endgadget.

Here we can see the different treatment between the PureView 808 and N9. Nokia's original intention was not the sell the 808 in U.S. After hearing the cries of interest from U.S. consumers they relented. Why did they ignore the even louder cries of interest for the N9? Because the 808 is basically a monster camera with phone capabilities running outdated Symbian and it will not compete with Lumia. But if Nokia sells the N9 alongside the Lumia 900 it will probably eat the Lumia 900 for lunch.

But a sale is still a sale for Nokia so why the discrimination? Unless there is a Microsoft mole making the decision.

Sander van der Wal

If you are providing these figures for developers too, you should add iPad (and iPod touch) sales, or at the very least have those next to smartphone-only sales. iOS being on those devices too is a big part of what makes iOS attractive to developers. There are also niceties like iOS users willing to spend money on software (unlike some other well-known mobile OS starting with an A), but in this context total platform usage would alady be excellent.

Regarding the destruction of the Symbian user base, I would not assume Symbian users are a priori loyal. They would move to a better smartphone like a shot, and that is what has happened.

And about a new lease of life for Symbian: unless there is a new commitment from Nokia to support the platform indefenitely, it will not change much in third party developers supporting it. Learning a platform take time and the costs of learning need to be recovered during the lifetime of the platform. Three years is nothing, a platform is either supported forever, or it is dead. Whether reviving Symbian is going to work is still a massive gamble, there are opportunity costs.

Ralph Lauren outlet

a platform is either supported forever, or it is dead. Whether reviving Symbian is going to work is still a massive gamble, there are opportunity costs.

parastar

In practice support for a platform is one thing only, i.e. bringing new models.

cycnus

@Sander van der Wal,

.... Regarding the destruction of the Symbian user base, I would not assume Symbian users
.... are a priori loyal. They would move to a better smartphone like a shot, and that is
.... what has happened.

I was also wondering about this.
Before the Elop 2-11 stupid memo, Tomi said that OS doesn't really matter, which mean Nokia brand is the one that the user after.

But it turn out, that most symbian user change to Android/Samsung.
Is it because Samsung is second best in symbian user opinion, and with the boycott on nokia, samsung gain?
Is it because user don't choose their phone, but buy the one that were offered by the sales counter.
Or is it because symbian user were microsoft hatter (just like me)?

@Pasaster,

It would be funny if the new symbian model would beat Lumia series sell.

Michael Elling (@Infostack)

It would be interesting to compare smartphone share with desktop/laptop share to see if there is much difference. The former are in relatively constricted/oligopolistic markets, while the latter are part of "open, competitive" markets. There is a natural power law that you might also refer to known as Zipf's law that may well be at play here. The smartphone market development has some definite parallels to the development of automobiles. http://bit.ly/JQybBk

JD!

I wonder why smartest OS is languishing down there at 2%???

Elop Destroyed Nokia...Who you gonna call ???

I am going to launch a ten store covert intel, where I eavesdrop salesmen & customer interaction and take notes whether Nokia is recommended or not by the salesmen.

I will come back and report the results.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi vladkr, Earendil, fritz, Eduardo and Kenny

vladkr - yeah, there seems to be a race between RIM and Nokia on who falls faster haha. Nokia is falling at faster rate, but started higher, so its not sure yet. I am expecting it to be close in Q2 and likely Nokia fallen behind RIM but I have better visibility to Nokia's major markets (here in Asia) than RIM's (North America)...

Earendil - yes, its true and what truly stuns me, is that there is so little reporting on the comprehensive collapse of Nokia. If this happened to Toyota in cars or Sony in TVs or HP in PCs or ExxonMobil in petroleum or Coca Cola in drinks, we'd have massive headline stories in the big business papers and magazines daily. But smartphones are still seen as a tiny near-irrelevant niche tech market where companies come and companies go haha.. But it will be increasingly in the news as the corporate Nokia suffers in the process.

fritz - I hear you and yes, it smells to high heaven, as they say. It also seems worse by the day on whether there can be any recovery even.

Eduardo - thanks, yes thats a very enlightening passage but also, like you say, it seems way too late now and the actions by the clearly reluctant Elop are obvious. He is not going along merrily to a better healthier Nokia. Because Nokia currently still has 2 MeeGo based devices that are still today (before iPhone 5) seen as highly competitive and desirable, and as they are Nokia manufactured devices in contrast with much of the Lumia line, which is subcontracted to Compal of Taiwan, and as MeeGo OS requires no royalty payments, there is almost nothing stopping Nokia from rushing the N9 and N950 to the market, try to sell as many millions now, while the Lumia line is suffering, to have something good to sell to Nokia customers this time. But no. He refuses. Even after the awards won like in the UK etc. That is lunacy in my book. And if Elop 'promises' some more Symbian Belle devices like the 808 PureView, that is small peanuts, while he pushes the Lumia line. I do see minor evidence of the carriers pressuring Nokia via the Board, and some even less evidence of it reaching Elop, but its not enough.

Kenny - thanks for the clarification. So its not even that bit of silver lining that we maybe hoped for. Clearly Elop wants to kill off the N9 and MeeGo as soon as he possibly can. And I sense that after Ollila retired as Chairman, now Elop has even more of a free hand to do what damage he feels like..

Thank you everybody for the comments, keep the discussion going, I'll return with more replies shortly

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vladkr

Some little more reading; English translation of the "Microsoft Windows Phone 7 : reasons for failure" with MS' answer to it :

http://www.mobile-review.com/articles/2012/wp7-1-en.shtml

Foo

NOK shares lost 67% -- that's 2/3, folks!!! -- in 1 year:

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1337284800000&chddm=98923&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:NOK&ntsp=0

Considering that this company was the #1 just two years ago, that's without doubt the most impressive value destruction I've ever seen.

Foo

Congratulations - A Nokia Bankruptcy Is Baked Into The Price Already

Finally, Nokia (NOK) is so cheap that if the company was to go bankrupt today, its shares would be worth more than they are now. If we look at the company's balance sheet, we see why.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/597161-congratulations-a-nokia-bankruptcy-is-baked-into-the-price-already

Richard

Living in the UK and needing a new phone I decided to visit the shops and see what attracted me.

There is nothing decent by Nokia - I did see the Lumia 710 on pay as you go, but even the assistant didn't particularly want to sell it. A small - around 6Gb - memory for my tunes..but even these I would have to go through Zune to install - no thanks. On the other hand there are many offerings by other companies on Android - and with much better specifications than Windows phones. I went with an Xperia Arc S which has ICS and didn't cost much more than the shoddy Nokia.

So, Nokia has nothing at the top-end to compete with Apple and Samsung, nothing in the mid-range to compete with many Androids, (including the Sony I bought) and nothing in the low range except tat like its Asha phones.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Asian, bjarneh, Pappy, Sammy, Sander and Ralph

Asian - yeah, and the price seems to be falling still further. Today the stock market in Helsinki was closed but lets see how it again goes Friday.

bjarneh - yeah, it seems that was a bit of a false dawn haha.. Too bad

Pappy - haha yeah.. Finland really doesn't get any life-threatening disasters like volcanoes, tsunami waves, hurricanes, tornadoes, or killer animals like tigers, crocodiles, scorpions etc. But now we've had our natural disaster: Elop.

Sammy - good points. I think there is the additional problem, that Symbian is 'obviously' outdated and even if one or two models, like the 808 PureView might succeed, the Symbian platform is clearly headed to its end. Elop fears the MeeGo platform much more, if the N9 is proven to be a success, it would force him to prolong the MeeGo platform and perhaps release more phones for it. That would be in Nokia's best interest - obviously - but not in Microsoft's best interest. So Elop is taking the conflict of interest, and acting against Nokia's interest in favor of that of Microsoft. That is in clear breach of his fiduciary duty to Nokia shareholders...

Sander - first, on iOS other devices - I'm pretty sure you know this from before, but at least for the other readers, no. This analysis is based on my insights into the mobile phone handset industry, and while I previously worked in the PC and internet industry, I am not competent to discuss digital media players like the iPod Touch or the newest format PCs like the tablet PCs. There are other sites that specialize on those. The relevant point is, that those categories are TINY compared to the handset industry and reach. And their use cases are FAR less pervasive than those of mobile phones. This site offers special insights into the most addictive tech ever invented, the mobile phone handset - and recently as smartphones emerged as the top-end most capable type of handset, I offer insights into that market. What exists for the PC industry to prolong their life via say tablet PCs is of interest to yes, those far smaller industries like the PC industry, but not to my core readership at this blog.

The work you think I should do, would be enormously more, in areas where I am not an expert, and would give only modest gains to most of my readers. Sorry, Sander, I won't bother to do that. There must be plenty of good sites that do that already. But for the far bigger market - smartphones - there is nobody who gives more data on this industry for free than this blog. I hope you can be appreciative of that work I do here for my readers, and you Sander.

As to prolonging the life of Symbian, you are very correct that it brings diminishing returns and is near impossible in the English-speaking world already, as the developers are gone and won't want to return to a near-dead platform which is notoriously uncomfortable to work with as a developer. What readers should remember, however, that in almost any other language other than English, Symbian is the biggest installed base smartphone OS, with the biggest catalog of apps already, and carrier billing with over 130 carriers/operators and local language support in more languages than any other platform etc. As for the installed base, Symbian still towers over all other platforms on four of the six inhabited continents, including the three biggest. So the developers who already have Symbian skills and program in say Hindi or Chinese or Portuguese (ie Brazil) etc, they will not quit.. But you are right, those who left for Android or iPhone especially in the English-speaking world, wont' come back even if there is some hit phone like the 808 PureView.

Ralph - thanks

Keep the discussion going, will return with more soon

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Spawn

@Sander van der Wal

> I would not assume Symbian users are a priori loyal. They would move to a better smartphone like a shot, and that is what has happened

This has nothing to do with loyal. "Better" is taste. Personally I found n9 better to lot alternates. But if you know that the whole "platform is burning" and that the device is not supported any longer by the company that sells it, then its better to switch and spend the $ on something that is still supported.
Yes, it is the one part of the Elop effect that made customers switching to something else.

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