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« How Microsoft Lost the Future (Updated with Ballmer Quote from Seoul) | Main | Paging Truth Police: No! Windows Phone and Nokia Lumia are NOT outselling iPhone in China. Utter BS story spread by Microsoft propaganda machine »

May 21, 2012

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Tomifan

When Nokia was losing market share in industrialized world but still "king of the hill" as Tomi put it, Nokia managed to push 5 million N8's to sales channel in a single quarter...
...and went to free fall after that. I Just hope Samsung is doubling that.

The Frenchy

Very interesting news!
Thanks!

JJ

"Microsoft way" makes me sick and now that Nokia is part of it makes me sad.

Gerii

Qt is not compatible with S40!
But besides Android there is also a community port for iOS and there are already first signs of it running on Tizen. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b07uXAiChaw&hd=1

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Tomifan, The, JJ and Gerii

Tomifan - haha. Not 5 million, it was 4 million, and if you want to believe Mr Credible Elop that it was somehow channel stuffing, feel free Tomifan. I see through Elop's claims now and don't believe anything he says that is potentially biased to support his views. The most blatant lie was when he tried to defend his Burning Platforms memo to the Nokia Shareholders claiming Symbian was in decline, when Q4 2010 Nokia quarterly report finds Symbian sales grew, average prices grew - meaning it could not be by price dumping, the revenues grew (obviously) and the profits grew, meaning it could not be through other marketing gimmicks like sales channel incentives. If Elop then says Nokia Symbian sales were declining - which is why he supposedly did his memo, he is simply lying to try to find cover for the most costly and stupid management memo ever released. But yeah, Tomifan, if you want to believe Elop, feel free. I am sure then you also believe in the tooth fairy and Easter bunny haha.

The - thanks

JJ - yes, makes me sick too. I was pretty gutted reading that court document, but suddenly this all makes sense. I couldn't understand why after all the years, suddenly a Nokia Director of Communciations starts to make absurd accusations and won't give any evidence. Initially I thought he was sincere, and all I wanted, was for him to show where did I misquote Elop, if there was a misquote, I would of course want to correct it. But that was not the case, this is simply the Microsoft Way now standard policy at Nokia - to lie, distort and discredit. Nice. And now the worst part is, that Nokia is reverting to waging war against the retail channel.. How mad are they? Its a war they can never win. Never.

Gerii - thanks, I forgot S40 isn't ready yet, I corrected the blog already. Thanks.

Thank you all for the comments,

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vladkr

Tomi,

Nokia bought Norwegian Smarterphone company earlier this year; what happened to this deal ? What was it for ?

Spawn

Somebody could have bet last year on Nokia being bankrupt in 2013 and made lots of money.

Maybe we are doing Elop a wrong and he is brilliant in executing a plan? It becomes more and more the last remaining logical conclusion for me.

Otherwise I wonder. Is there really noone left that could keep him away from the biggest mines?

ExTechOp

For those that do not know, Valkee (where Anssi Vanjoki is an investor) is a company making quite expensive LED-light earbuds that are supposed to help with Seasonal Affective Disorder. There is some speculation of brain cells actually being light-sensitive, and that bright light piped into the ear ostensibly could travel through skin, bone and meninges. They have no double-blind research to actually show their product works, but they have been promising some for quite some time now. The company may or may not be the next Europositron.

Spawn

Nokia on war. It must be horrible to still be an employee in that company. Seeing and feeling the fall from hero to zero. More higher up the hierachy, more panic. Its those down there doing the work who get the blame, who see what is going wrong and yet cannot do anything for there company. Knowing thart they are next who will be gone once management needs save more money.

I am sure the very less talent that is left will leave too under such conditions. There is no way Nokia could go back to Symbian, could bring Meltimi to market, could turn around to something else.

Nokia is not able to change direction. Even taking Android and bringing with heavy modifications will take to long. RIP Nokia.

Vinicius

I see this as the end.

I just hope to grab a 808 preview before they collapse onto itself.

I think they will be bought out in less than a quarter by someone.

I know that if I were Apple, Samsung, HTC, LG, Sony or anyone else in this industry I would buy then and strip then bare of minds, assets and patents and throw the rest to the dogs. And make a healthy profit on top of that.

The only things, that I think makes this impractical are:

- Anti-thrust/monopoly government agencies;
- Fear of being outbid by Microsoft and accidentally make Nokia worth more and give then a ton of publicity.

elm70

Tomi, clearly Elop and Ballmer don't read your blog ;-)

Communities dominate brands

Not the other way around as the Nokia and Microsoft army wish to do

I think average customer is smart enough to see this Nokia/Microsoft army trying to manipulate the net showing a fake view of Windows Phone, the outcome is going to go from bad to worst, WP has around 2% market, and is hard to predict it will grow from here

Thanks to Elop Nokia is dead now, I wish Microsoft can die short after Nokia ch.11

Tchuss

E_lm_70

android

Motorola should buy Nokia in about a years time.

Then there could be a Nokia Nexus superdevice :-)

Illogical Al

That most of the first level captain crew left Nokia or did decide to leave lated when Elop joined tells us something. A clever captain leaves the ship only when the sink cant be stopped. Not so clever captains wait to long, sink with the ship and die.

All those captains, that make Nokia a success before, left there beloved Nokia knowing it will unstopable sink when Elop joins. They where no able to stopp Elop from joining? What forces where able to hinder them to save Nokia from the Elop?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi vladkr, Spawn, Ex, Vinicius, elm and android

vladkr - am not sure, but my feeling was at the time that it would be incorporated into the Meltemi project. I wish Nokia was a bit more like in the past haha, and tell us things (and be truthful about it too)..

Spawn - well, there were a couple of blatant moves Elop did that would definitely cause the share price to crash, like Burning Platforms memo etc. If he has a secret investment fund somewhere in the Caymans, if he was smart, he had his investment fund short the Nokia share and collect tons of profits haha... If anything like that was ever caught, he'd go to prison, not just lose his job and be banned from corporate governance..

Ex - thanks! Yeah, I've mentioned Valkee a couple of times on Twitter, its a very exciting technology and we'll need to monitor how the company does. Am not surprised Anssi ends up with a very advanced clever company focused 100% in the future haha... PS my best to the Valkee team, I hope to come visit you in person some day when am in your neck of the woods..

Spawn (2nd comment) - yeah. Being an employee currently at Nokia must be the most demoralizing place in mobile. To look at the clown in charge (Elop), seeing that over coffee and drinks after work, everyone laughs at how idiotic his announcements (who remembers 150 million for example) are and all those totally pointless - and severely counterproductive - decisions like the naming/numbering or the USA Symbian decision, not to mention truly strategic blunders like N9, N950 and MeeGo etc... And to be stuck there, hoping you're not fired, and hoping that by the time Elop is fired, there is still some kind of career left with a Nokia job..

Vinicius - yeah, the writing really seems to be on the wall. I do expect every day when I open my browser and go to Google News, to find a story 'Nokia being bought by' or 'takeover bid for Nokia' - same whenever I turn on TV and look at CNN or Bloomberg etc.. We heard already last summer that the initial feelers were out there, Google ended up then buying Motorola instead, and Samsung bought some of Sony's TV business instead, etc. And the Microsoft gossip is there all the time, from should they buy all of Nokia, or only Nokia's smartphone unit, or only invest in Nokia..

elm - haha, yeah. But they send their minions to read it, and to spam me with hostile comments... The point about the fall from fantasy to reality will be ever harder, the more Microsoft and Nokia run an unsustainable expectation. What I think, is that there is a real panic going on - look at the departures from Windows Phone now, and how the carrier community is vocal about hating it. If the image of Windows Phone crashes, then the developers disappear and the carriers cancel orders and the OS could be at 0.5% market share by year-end haha... They now need a 'rolling' series of false hope, first it was false hope from Europe, then false hope from Asia, then false hope from USA, now from China.. They are just replacing one reality check, with an ever newer and more astonishing promise of super-success. Like the AT&T release, moving it back from March to April, just so we won't know how badly it was accepted, until in July when Nokia April-June quarter data info comes out..

BTW - am really coming to the conclusion there is no way out for Nokia anymore. The news is so disasterous from all markets. That Africa distributor news is devastating, Nokia's best market in terms of continents..

android - haha, funny, yeah... But more seriously, Google could buy Nokia rather easily, take the patents, shift Nokia smartphones away from Symbian, MeeGo and Windows Phone to Android, then launch Nokia as a revitalized - and re-energized brand back into the market as a loyal member of the Google Android family of smartphones... I bet that calculation has been done many times at the Googleplex and they have already long since done their decision points, of at what price point will they move in to take over Nokia - only for the patents obviously. They'd maybe keep a few other parts (Navteq maybe) but quickly sell of the dumbphones, the networks etc..

Thank you all for the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

eduardo

Microsoft strong-arms tactics? That might help explain why Nokia decided to devote scarce resources to the dubious project of developing a tablet. Microsoft is making a huge bet on Windows 8, a questionable attempt to make a single OS for both pc's and tablets. Since it is nowhere on tablets, maybe it tried to get some market share by making a MS tablet one of the conditions of its agreement with Nokia.

Speaking of which, it sure would be interesting to see the text of the agreement. It wouldn't surprise me if it has some embarrassing provisions. Perhaps someone inside Nokia who is unhappy with how things are going will leak it.

So Vatar

Claims of WP outselling iPhone will be tested in a few weeks. People issuing such statements will be the laughing stock when quarterly sales numbers are issued, and many - including Tomi - will call them out for their silly announcements about massive successes for Nokia's Lumias in China. I take the freedom to already laugh now: Haha.

Re Nokia's demise:
I do not see Nokia survive the mismanagement of the last years. If nothing changes, my assumption is that Nokia is illiquid by end of 2012 or beginning 2013. Many underestimate the amount of cash they need to finance their restructuring to nowhere and ongoing operations. Nokia is cut off of corporate bond markets, and will need to file for bankruptcy earlier than most believe.

Of course some additional MS cash infusions could get them a few quarters more, but to what purpose? WP is dead and won't be resurrected or take off. No way.

I still think that a buy out and break up of Nokia is the more probable outcome, and this could be a big boost to the current depressed share price, especially if a bidding war between Apple, Google and MS starts. I actually hope for this outcome.

There are 2 factors we don't know enough about that could make such a bidding war unrealistic:
1) There are (unsubstantiated) rumors that Nokia's pension commitments are vastly underfunded, which makes buying Nokia to break it up tricky (who will end up holding the liabilities?)
2) Which patents of Nokia's formerly huge patent portfolio are still under Nokia's control. Which patents were given away to other entities, and are the remaining patents valuable and unencumbered in case someone (Apple, Google, MS, consortium, etc) want to buy them?

My preferred outcome - Nokia survives as an independent corporation selling phones and services around mobile globally - is getting more unrealistic by the day. I am sad to read that Tomi comes to the same conclusion.

vladkr

Thanks Tomi... that's what I thought as well, but there are few things that are still illogical to me:

- If it's for Meltemi, then why firing all the Meego team, which would have worked efficiently on Meltemi (pay them for social packages) and hiring (= high expense again) a new team ?

- Has meltemi a future at Nokia, as MS is developing a low spec of Windows, which could take place of Meltemi ?

Maybe I'm stupid, but I can't find any sense to it.... or maybe it was another no brainer day for Stephen and Steven.


By the way, I don't think Stephen Elop is stupid :

he ruined several companies, one of which was about selling chicken in North America (ruining a chicken company in North America is like ruining a vodka factory in Russia, a beer/coffee business in Finland or Bentley distribution centers in Koweit - that's quite a performance) and he still is millionaire; that's kind of talent.

LeeBase

Your Apple segment was boring. Nothing to report until the next iPhone? How about the iPhone outselling all Android phones combined in every American network that sells the iPhone, including the top 3 networks! How about looking at the numbers world wide, on carriers selling the iPhone....how is it doing? Is the US an anomalies?

Vinicius

LeeBase:

Is this really news? I though it was the case for a long time.

And I really wanted Nokia to launch the 808 already. They say it will come to Brazil in July, but I'm not convinced that there will be a Nokia in July. Maybe I should import it from somewhere else (like I did with the n900)?


bjarneh

Microsoft is using the same strategy they used in the desktop market, but they are hardly an evil empire compared to the other players, they are all evil (even google) it's all about $ in the end.


the consumer market (as the cellphone market) where you really can't bribe people to buy your product needs a different strategy (bribes work well with governments and large companies).


as Steve Jobs famously said: (quoting from memory)

"I hate the enterprise market; the best products never win. backroom deals control the sales process and we've never been good at those, we just make great products.."


i'm no fan of Steve Jobs, but there is some truth to his statement; you really can't expect Microsoft to push out Windows phones by bribes since the consumers are to many to bribe, you really need to deliver a superior product.


it's impossible for Nokia to move in the right direction when they effectively are taking bribes from Microsoft; 1 $Bn a year probably sounded like a sweet deal a while ago, now it's stopping Nokia from seeing the elephant in the room.


the N9/N950 is clearly in demand, when people are modding the N9 to get their hands on something similar to the N950, there is demand:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-9GuzIT8_8


the N9/N950 also has another important thing going for it, it's in demand by people who actually develop, programmers are demanding the N9/N950. these are the guys who actually build apps (or programs as we used to call them). these are the guys you actually need in order to get a cool app-store. there are litterally millions of programs written for GNU/Linux, not because of the profits that can be made here, but because a large share of developers used GNU/Linux exclusively, and write the programs they need.


@Tomi if you get your hands on an N9/N950 i'm 100% sure that you would retract your statements about a "short window of opportunity" for these devices before the iPhone5, Galaxy3 etc. arrives. these devices can stant head to head with anything the others can come up with for a long time yet, the problem is the money (bribe) coming from Microsoft, which like all bribes cloud your vision.


Nokia did not get an exclusive deal with Windows Phone, but since all other vendors are now dropping Windows Phone, Nokia may perhaps be an exclusive dealer after all :-)

Eurofan

@ bjarneh: I agree on the N9. It is a competitive product for 2013. It really is a timeless solution to the hand held device problem. It pleases me every day with a new feature that introduces itself to me on its own. A very well thought out and designed device that alone could save Nokia in 2013. With the pureview camera module, a super N9 would outsell all other $1000 smartphones in 2013 world wide, I'm sure.

Jacob S

Take it for what it is, but Stat Counter shows a rather significant pick up for Windows Phone in Finland since the beginning of this year. Admittedly, Finland is a small and unique market in this perspective. I am truly sorry about the development for MeeGo. The development for both iOS and Android actually seems rather flat during 2012. Symbian has been on a decline since as long back in time as Stat Counter has data. This is in line with that Nokia was the inventor of the smart phone and started at a share close to 100%.
http://gs.statcounter.com/?chart_type=line&statType_hidden=mobile_os&region=Europe&region_hidden=#mobile_os-FI-monthly-201104-201204

bjarneh

@Eurofan: yes, and it could ship fast and cheap for developers, that would get the ball rolling, more apps more interest etc. the phones themselves are so good that marketing is just a matter of having them available (which is why they are not available IMO)..

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Illogical, eduardo, So, vladkr, Lee, Vinicius, bjarneh, Eurofan and Jacob

Illogical - very true. The top management will have seen almost immediately that Elop was not fit to run the company. And yes, apart from those, very many from the next layer, the VP level have also left during early Elop tenure. That also means, that it would be very difficult to try to correct the ship rapidly, if most competent top management is gone. Anyone who were to replace Elop, should at least immediately cut out the cancer which is his Microsoft mafia, eliminate all who came with Elop or with a Microsoft background..

eduardo - yes to both haha. I really would love to read that agreement haha, but am guessing it will remain super-secret forever, regardless of whether this alliance survives haha.. Microsoft will have enormous penalties if any confidentiality of that contract is revealed, and I'd guess its a very small circle who have seen it..

So - true about we'll know soon enough (and that I will then call out this Mr van der Whatever-he-was and his silliness). What I really do expect, is 'any day now' breaking story that someone has made a hostile bid for Nokia - then to result in a bidding war against at least Microsoft. Considering how low the share price has fallen already, it dropped below Nokia's balance sheet assets value a year ago and fallen almost another 30% since then.. I am puzzled that nobody is making a move. The point you made about pension funds and obviously Nordic European rules about layoffs, and in the case of Germany with NokiaSiemens Networks perhaps even more strict rules in Germany haha, will also play their part.

vladkr - you are so SO correct about that. It makes ZERO sense at all. Since Nokia was already developing Meltemi, and Meltemi technically, and from its ecosystem, and from Nokia competence, and from software components etc - is a cousin of MeeGo and Maemo - the last thing Nokia would want to do, is to 'kill' the 'parent' of Meltemi. Imagine how much more successful Meltemi would be, if the world had 20 million or 30 million MeeGo users by the time Meltemi launched, and the Nokia developers would have the Qt tools environment to run their migration path from Symbian. But why? I am sure this is the mission of Elop when he came from Microsoft, and when he plotted the Microsoft strategy for Nokia with Ballmer. Ballmer of course wants all rival systems eliminated as soon as possible, including Symbian, Ovi store, MeeGo and Qt. Elop has been doing a good job at it so far. And yes, Elop is not stupid, I do agree with you. This is a carefully planned assassination of all things Nokia. He is the assassin hired by Ballmer, and he is doing it very efficiently. He is not stupid, definitely. But he also has made a ton of short-term tactical mistakes, which says that at least he is not well familiar with the mobile industry or he does't really care..

Lee - sorry, but Apple hasn't done much exciting in the past few weeks, haha

Vinicius - even if Nokia were to go bankrupt or be acquired, it won't instantly turn off the factories and sales. The process will continue and were it to happen that Nokia suddenly collapsed as a company, the prices of the 808 PureViews would fall haha.. But I think its a safe bet that there will be Nokia handsets in the stores regardless of what happens at the corporate level..

bjarneh - on 'evil empire' - I do disagree. Microsoft - in my view - has been the most aggressive in sueing rivals, most arrogant in abusing its market power, most sued by governments, most accused by rivals, and specifically in mobile, has been the kiss of death to partnerships from Sendo to Nortel to Motorola haha... But I do agree that all corporations have a profit motive. That does not in my book make a company 'evil'..

Good point about the bribes and that it is not a sustainable business in consumer electronics. About N9/N950 and MeeGo being competitive. Yes, its an exceptional device (or pair) and OS, and yes, it is still very good now, but it was magical a year ago. Last year the N9 was rated in essentially all reviews better than any other OS than the iPhone, and even in head-to-head reviews against the iPhone, for the first time by ANY phone by any maker, the N9 got often rated 'better' than the iPhone. Not always, not even half the time, but more often than any other phone ever. Last year, it was so far ahead of the game, that Nokia could have created a Razr moment for Nokia, to have a global super hit phone and grow sales, market share, revenues and profits massively. That chance is gone, and the more time goes by, the Samsung Galaxy S3 and iPhone 5 and whatever next will come and eat at the lead the N9 had last year. I don't mean it is obsolete yet, but the massive 'leap' opportunity that Nokia had, is now pretty well gone.

Eurofan - haha, N9-808 wow, that would be monster..

Jacob - I have said before, it is pretty irrelevant. In Finland Nokia is one of biggest tech users of mobile services, all Nokia staff now getting Lumias, they have 'unlimited' data. Also many at Elisa, Sonera and DNA will have Lumias, and again, they have no limits on their use. The premium handset market in Finland is dramatically distorted by the fact that most high tech companies in Finland are in telecoms and closely related to Nokia.. But yeah, I know, Statcounter measures that. It is not in any way comparable to ANY other country for Nokia performance haha..

Keep the comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

John

Very true @bjarneh. The N9 is just so good device I had to buy one just to keep in case Nokia ends up bankrupt & MeeGo finally dies. The device is one of the only device that can save Nokia only if stupid elop would make it available worldwide.

Still possible to get it in Finland though but not as widely available as you would expect for a great

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